From 491cce57a209111e4e127be9b769af97f9f46942 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: wassname <1103714+wassname@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sat, 11 Jul 2026 21:11:30 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] wip --- anz-2040.md | 18 +++++++----------- 1 file changed, 7 insertions(+), 11 deletions(-) diff --git a/anz-2040.md b/anz-2040.md index 52979a5..1eed2b0 100644 --- a/anz-2040.md +++ b/anz-2040.md @@ -167,7 +167,7 @@ The deal collapses and ANZ chooses the US bloc. We keep the security relationshi ### VII. Boring decade -AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down. This sits outside the Plan A probabilities above. +AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down. This is outside the Plan A probabilities above. > "AI progress slows, and AI causes less disruption than expected." > @@ -198,19 +198,15 @@ To illustrate the outcome, here's what a fictional Australian citizen might have ## Where we depart from AI 2040 -We condition on rapid AI progress and leave aside our roughly 35% chance that progress plateaus first. The boring decade remains visible above, but it is outside the Plan A probability denominator. +We condition on rapid AI progress. The boring decade is visible above, but is outside the Plan A probability denominator. + -AI 2040 gives Plan A a 72% chance of alignment and a 42% chance of a great future. It does not say what makes up the remaining 30%. We focus on dictatorship because of the risks laid out in Forethought's paper, [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power). +AI 2040 leaves its aligned-but-not-great outcome undecomposed. Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category. -AI 2040's 42% "great future" is global. It does not guarantee that ANZ remains democratic. We put homegrown autocracy after that outcome and give it a 30% conditional probability. This is our estimate, not AI 2040's. Under Plan A, the path is 42% x 30% = 12.6%. The other 29.4% reaches the later ANZ choices with political power still spread. +AI 2040's "great future" is global. ANZ could still become autocratic, so we add that as a conditional risk using the mechanisms in Forethought's [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power). + -AI 2040 models energy consumption rising about eight times by 2040 and notes that proven mineral reserves cover decades of current extraction, but it does not price the tonnage needed for a robot economy growing every 6-12 months. Coal, uranium, energy trade, and Australian mine capacity are outside its model. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a)) - -AI 2040's proposed division of technical safety work near the end of its preparation phase allocates about 1% to model character. We propose that ANZ specialise in this and related evaluation research (section 2). - -AI 2040 does share some US wealth abroad, but very unevenly. In 2032 its American dividend starts at $45,000 while adults outside the US and China average $1,200. By 2035 the figures are about $1M and $10,000. ANZ may do better than that generic non-US payment through superannuation and mining, but only if the gains are broadly owned. A rich national balance sheet can still leave the median household without economic leverage. ([AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root)) - -We leave out a trans-Tasman split and a separate Australian decision during US sabotage operations because neither changes the main choices above. +AI 2040 models energy use and mineral reserves, but not the tonnage required by a rapidly growing robot economy. We add ANZ's mineral exposure, public ownership, and hosting terms. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a)) ## Sources and thanks