diff --git a/anz-2040.md b/anz-2040.md
index c7fc9a1..05cef41 100644
--- a/anz-2040.md
+++ b/anz-2040.md
@@ -7,6 +7,14 @@ What can Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) actually decide if AI becomes much more
We start from [AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com), which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves.
+## Our starting assumption
+
+We assume the US chooses Plan A and China accepts: a verified slowdown with total research transparency.
+
+> "To the surprise of many in DC, China proves receptive. They had been debating the same issues—social destabilization, job loss, rogue superintelligence - on their side of the Pacific. They had been looking forward to ‘The Chinese Century’ and thought that AI might disrupt their plans. And they had one extra reason to come to the table: the US continues to have more compute, more datacenters, and better models. They were worried about the things the US might do to them if it got to superintelligence first."
+>
+> AI Futures Project, [AI 2040: Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root)
+
[](tree.svg)
## What ANZ can do
@@ -15,6 +23,8 @@ We start from [AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com), which describes choices the United
The later choices need ordinary government machinery: royalty laws, approved sites, a way to pay a dividend, biosecurity capacity, and working relationships with other middle powers. None of this requires believing one precise AI forecast. It is cheap compared with discovering in 2029 that the legal and diplomatic work takes five years.
+The technical preparation is set out in AI 2040's [alignment roadmap](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/alignment-roadmap).
+
AI 2040 does not say who should do this work:
> "In case access limitations fail, Plan A involves massive investments into biosecurity and other measures to improve the resilience of the world."
@@ -163,15 +173,7 @@ The deal collapses and ANZ chooses the US bloc. We keep the security relationshi
>
> Tom Davidson, [How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?](https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting)
-### VII. Boring decade
-
-AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down. This is outside the Plan A probabilities above.
-
-> "AI progress slows, and AI causes less disruption than expected."
->
-> UK Government Office for Science and AI Security Institute, [AI Scenarios 2030](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai)
-
-### VIII. Middle-power concert
+### VII. Middle-power concert
The US-China AI deal breaks down, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds together. ANZ pools its supply-chain and hosting leverage with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK. None could demand durable access alone. Together they may get terms and help write the rules.
@@ -179,7 +181,7 @@ The US-China AI deal breaks down, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds
>
> Leicht and Ball, [The Race Worth Winning](https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence)
-### IX. ~~Homegrown autocracy~~ free beer and rugby for life
+### VIII. ~~Homegrown autocracy~~ free beer and rugby for life
Here AI replaces most cognitive work. The government collects revenue from AI companies instead of workers. Workers lose their jobs and tax leverage, while automated security makes protests and elections easier to ignore.
@@ -196,12 +198,9 @@ To illustrate the outcome, here's what a fictional Australian citizen might have
## Where we depart from AI 2040
-We condition on rapid AI progress. The boring decade is visible above, but is outside the Plan A probability denominator.
-
-
AI 2040 does not break down the 30% between alignment and what its supplement calls a "great future." Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category.
-AI 2040 does not give ANZ its own outcome. We add an ANZ autocracy risk to its positive outcome for the reasons laid out in Forethought's paper, [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power).
+AI 2040's expanded probability cells do not score democracy inside foreign middle powers. We add that question to its 42% branch using our 30% estimate, for the reasons laid out in Forethought's [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power).
AI 2040 models energy use and mineral reserves, but not the tonnage required by a rapidly growing robot economy. We add ANZ's mineral exposure, public ownership, and hosting terms. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a))
diff --git a/data/tree.json b/data/tree.json
index 86ab789..7b8522f 100644
--- a/data/tree.json
+++ b/data/tree.json
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
{
"comment": "Claude: single source for tree.svg. Each item has a tier and left-to-right order. Stream width carries probability mass; exact values are tooltips, except the visible conditional ANZ estimate. Choice edges have uniform width. The HTML build fails if an href no longer matches a prose heading.",
"title": "Choose a path",
- "canvas": {"w": 680, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150},
+ "canvas": {"w": 760, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150},
"kinds": {
"global": {"fill": "#e0e0e0", "stroke": "#888888"},
"hazard": {"fill": "#f4cccc", "stroke": "#990000"},
@@ -12,28 +12,24 @@
"nodes": [
{"id": "A", "tier": 0, "order": 0, "kind": "robust", "href": "#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28", "title": "1. Prepare early", "sub": "2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies"},
{"id": "F", "tier": 0, "order": 1, "kind": "robust", "href": "#2-train-specialists-2026-29", "title": "2. Train specialists", "sub": "alignment, security, and policy"},
- {"id": "FORK", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "Does rapid AI progress continue?", "sub": ""},
- {"id": "VII", "tier": 2, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vii-boring-decade", "title": "VII. Boring decade", "sub": "AI progress stalls"},
- {"id": "PLAN", "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "AI 2040 Plan A", "sub": ""},
- {"id": "I", "tier": 3, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#i-doom-about-28", "title": "I. Doom", "sub": ""},
- {"id": "BAD", "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ii-humans-retain-control-but-the-world-still-goes-badly", "title": "II. Humans retain control", "sub": "but the world still goes badly"},
- {"id": "HOME", "tier": 3, "order": 2, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040", "title": "AI 2040's positive vision", "sub": "Does ANZ remain democratic?"},
- {"id": "IX", "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "IX. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "citizens stop being needed"},
- {"id": "B", "tier": 4, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029", "title": "3. Sign, or set our price?", "sub": "ANZ remains democratic"},
- {"id": "E", "tier": 5, "order": 0, "kind": "anz", "href": "#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s", "title": "6. If the deal collapses", "sub": "US bloc, concert, or neutral?"},
- {"id": "C", "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32", "title": "4. Host compute here?", "sub": "2030-32"},
- {"id": "VIII", "tier": 6, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#viii-middle-power-concert", "title": "VIII. Middle-power concert", "sub": "allies bargain together"},
- {"id": "V", "tier": 6, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#v-allied-compute-host", "title": "V. Allied compute host", "sub": "ANZ hosts US clusters"},
- {"id": "VI", "tier": 7, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vi-garrison-ally", "title": "VI. Garrison ally", "sub": "ANZ joins the US bloc"},
- {"id": "D", "tier": 7, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34", "title": "5. Tax it, own a share?", "sub": "2031-34"},
- {"id": "III", "tier": 8, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iii-dividend-commonwealth", "title": "III. Dividend commonwealth", "sub": "households own a share"},
- {"id": "IV", "tier": 8, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iv-quarry-economy", "title": "IV. Quarry economy", "sub": "no public stake"}
+ {"id": "PLAN", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global", "href": "https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root", "title": "US chooses Plan A", "sub": "verified slowdown + total research transparency"},
+ {"id": "I", "tier": 2, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#i-doom-about-28", "title": "I. Doom", "sub": ""},
+ {"id": "BAD", "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ii-humans-retain-control-but-the-world-still-goes-badly", "title": "II. Humans retain control", "sub": "but the world still goes badly"},
+ {"id": "HOME", "tier": 2, "order": 2, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040", "title": "AI 2040's 42% estimate", "sub": "Our question: does ANZ remain democratic?"},
+ {"id": "IX", "tier": 3, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#viii-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "VIII. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "citizens stop being needed"},
+ {"id": "B", "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029", "title": "3. Sign, or set our price?", "sub": "ANZ remains democratic"},
+ {"id": "E", "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "anz", "href": "#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s", "title": "6. If the deal collapses", "sub": "US bloc, concert, or neutral?"},
+ {"id": "C", "tier": 4, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32", "title": "4. Host compute here?", "sub": "2030-32"},
+ {"id": "VIII", "tier": 5, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vii-middle-power-concert", "title": "VII. Middle-power concert", "sub": "allies bargain together"},
+ {"id": "V", "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#v-allied-compute-host", "title": "V. Allied compute host", "sub": "ANZ hosts US clusters"},
+ {"id": "VI", "tier": 6, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vi-garrison-ally", "title": "VI. Garrison ally", "sub": "ANZ joins the US bloc"},
+ {"id": "D", "tier": 6, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34", "title": "5. Tax it, own a share?", "sub": "2031-34"},
+ {"id": "III", "tier": 7, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iii-dividend-commonwealth", "title": "III. Dividend commonwealth", "sub": "households own a share"},
+ {"id": "IV", "tier": 7, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iv-quarry-economy", "title": "IV. Quarry economy", "sub": "no public stake"}
],
"edges": [
- {"from": "A", "to": "FORK", "choice": true},
- {"from": "F", "to": "FORK", "choice": true},
- {"from": "FORK", "to": "VII", "choice": true, "dashed": true},
- {"from": "FORK", "to": "PLAN", "flow": 1.0, "tooltip": "Conditional on rapid AI progress"},
+ {"from": "A", "to": "PLAN", "choice": true},
+ {"from": "F", "to": "PLAN", "choice": true},
{"from": "PLAN", "to": "I", "flow": 0.28, "label": "misaligned!", "tooltip": "28% misaligned takeover (AI 2040 supplement)"},
{"from": "PLAN", "to": "BAD", "flow": 0.30, "tooltip": "30% aligned without a 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement)"},
{"from": "PLAN", "to": "HOME", "flow": 0.42, "tooltip": "42% 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement)"},
diff --git a/index.html b/index.html
index 27c446a..0cb63a3 100644
--- a/index.html
+++ b/index.html
@@ -22,9 +22,8 @@ table { border-collapse: collapse; margin: 1.2rem 0; font-size: .92rem; }
th,td { text-align: left; padding: .35rem .8rem; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--rule); }
thead th { border-bottom: 2px solid #999; }
code { font-family: ui-monospace, Menlo, Consolas, monospace; font-size: .88em; }
-/* the tree is a tall, narrow two-per-row flow; cap its width and centre it so the text
- stays a legible size (a wide canvas stretched to the column would shrink the text) */
-.tree { margin: 1.5rem auto; max-width: 560px; overflow-x: auto; }
+/* Claude: one responsive tree fills the viewport without a separate scrolling layout. */
+.tree { width: 100vw; margin: 1.5rem 50%; transform: translateX(-50%); }
.tree svg { width: 100%; height: auto; display: block; }
@media (max-width: 600px) {
body { margin-top: 2rem; }
@@ -41,135 +40,132 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
What can Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) actually decide if AI becomes much more powerful over the next decade?
We start from AI 2040, which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves.