From b4eb3118532f137ec1167f150a0b7244f6385955 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: wassname <1103714+wassname@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sat, 11 Jul 2026 22:25:17 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] Let probability streams speak for themselves --- anz-2040.md | 22 ++-- data/tree.json | 52 +++++----- index.html | 233 ++++++++++++++++++++---------------------- scripts/build_tree.py | 14 ++- tree.svg | 214 ++++++++++++++++++-------------------- 5 files changed, 255 insertions(+), 280 deletions(-) diff --git a/anz-2040.md b/anz-2040.md index 1ce7539..c7fc9a1 100644 --- a/anz-2040.md +++ b/anz-2040.md @@ -1,11 +1,11 @@ # ANZ 2040: the decisions we still get to make -
Australia and New Zealand navigating a narrow path between loss of human control to misaligned AI and concentrated human control, with shared human control through plural governance at the centre.
+
Australia and New Zealand navigating a narrow path between loss of human control to misaligned AI and concentrated human control, with democratic government at the centre.
What can Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) actually decide if AI becomes much more powerful over the next decade? -We start from the excellent [AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com), which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves. +We start from [AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com), which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves. [![ANZ 2040: choices and possible futures](tree.svg)](tree.svg) @@ -79,9 +79,7 @@ AI 2040 funds its US dividend from AI-hardware and robot permits: > > AI Futures Project, [Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a) -ANZ cannot count on that revenue. Our share would have to come from mineral and energy royalties, public equity held through the Future Fund and NZ Super, and ownership stakes negotiated in return for hosting allied compute. Those rules need to exist before cognitive labour becomes cheap and wage earners lose their bargaining power. - -ANZ could route mining royalties and public equity through sovereign wealth funds, then pay part of the returns as a household dividend. Leicht and Ball warn middle powers against selling a domestic bottleneck firm that is: +ANZ cannot count on that revenue. It could put mining and energy royalties, public equity, and ownership stakes negotiated for hosting into its sovereign wealth funds, then pay part of the returns as a household dividend. Those rules need to exist before cognitive labour becomes cheap and wage earners lose their bargaining power. Leicht and Ball warn middle powers against selling a domestic bottleneck firm that is: > "the ticket guaranteeing their home country’s stake in the AI economy" > @@ -121,9 +119,9 @@ Yudkowsky and Soares state the doom case much more strongly than our estimate: Once control is lost, ANZ has no policy response left. The preparations above aim to improve the odds before that happens. -### II. Aligned, but not great, about 30% +### II. Humans retain control, but the world still goes badly -AI 2040 does not say what makes up this 30%. One possibility is someone else's empire: a government, company, or person holds the decisive systems. ANZ may be materially rich, especially while iron demand is high, but lives under rules set elsewhere. +AI 2040 gives Plan A a 30% chance of avoiding a misaligned takeover without reaching what its supplement calls a "great future." It does not say what makes up that category. One possibility is someone else's empire: a government, company, or person holds the decisive systems. ANZ may be materially rich, especially while iron demand is high, but lives under rules set elsewhere. > "a tiny group of people, or possibly just a single individual, is effectively in control of the world’s only army of superintelligences" > @@ -149,7 +147,7 @@ The resource boom eventually expires or space mining becomes cheaper. A machine ### V. Allied compute host -ANZ accepts the data centres and robot zones, but only after securing access and ownership terms. Land, power, and Five Eyes trust become a stake in the machine economy. The price is physical exposure: the hosted clusters are managed as treaty collateral, and the treaty's wars become our own. +ANZ accepts the data centres and robot zones, but only after securing access and ownership terms. It supplies power and a trusted Five Eyes location. In return, it keeps access and owns part of the cluster. The clusters also become targets. If the treaty fails, ANZ may be expected to destroy them, or an adversary may attack them. > "If the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres in response. It’s a way to lock in the deal." > @@ -183,7 +181,7 @@ The US-China AI deal breaks down, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds ### IX. ~~Homegrown autocracy~~ free beer and rugby for life -Here AI replaces most cognitive work. The government collects its revenue from AI companies rather than workers removing their leverage, while automated security makes protests and elections easier to ignore. Citizens lose both their income and their leverage over the state. +Here AI replaces most cognitive work. The government collects revenue from AI companies instead of workers. Workers lose their jobs and tax leverage, while automated security makes protests and elections easier to ignore. > "AI could create a similar effect: if governments can generate massive revenue from taxing AI projects rather than citizens, heads of state may lose their economic incentive to ensure citizens prosper. This would weaken citizens’ power to resist coup and backsliding attempts." > @@ -201,10 +199,10 @@ To illustrate the outcome, here's what a fictional Australian citizen might have We condition on rapid AI progress. The boring decade is visible above, but is outside the Plan A probability denominator. -AI 2040 leaves its aligned-but-not-great outcome undecomposed. Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category. +AI 2040 does not break down the 30% between alignment and what its supplement calls a "great future." Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category. -AI 2040's "great future" is global. ANZ could still become autocratic, so we add that risk for the reasons laid out in Forethought's paper, [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power). - +AI 2040 does not give ANZ its own outcome. We add an ANZ autocracy risk to its positive outcome for the reasons laid out in Forethought's paper, [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power). + AI 2040 models energy use and mineral reserves, but not the tonnage required by a rapidly growing robot economy. We add ANZ's mineral exposure, public ownership, and hosting terms. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a)) diff --git a/data/tree.json b/data/tree.json index bd5639b..86ab789 100644 --- a/data/tree.json +++ b/data/tree.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { - "comment": "Claude: single source for tree.svg. Each item has a tier and left-to-right order; two items per row max. Probability edges use AI 2040's Plan A mass until the explicitly marked conditional ANZ estimate. Choice edges have uniform width. The HTML build fails if an href no longer matches a prose heading.", + "comment": "Claude: single source for tree.svg. Each item has a tier and left-to-right order. Stream width carries probability mass; exact values are tooltips, except the visible conditional ANZ estimate. Choice edges have uniform width. The HTML build fails if an href no longer matches a prose heading.", "title": "Choose a path", - "canvas": {"w": 640, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150}, + "canvas": {"w": 680, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150}, "kinds": { "global": {"fill": "#e0e0e0", "stroke": "#888888"}, "hazard": {"fill": "#f4cccc", "stroke": "#990000"}, @@ -10,37 +10,35 @@ "outcome": {"fill": "#cfe2f3", "stroke": "#3d85c6"} }, "nodes": [ - {"id": "A", "tier": 0, "order": 0, "kind": "robust", "href": "#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28", "title": "1. Prepare early", "sub": "2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies"}, + {"id": "A", "tier": 0, "order": 0, "kind": "robust", "href": "#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28", "title": "1. Prepare early", "sub": "2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies"}, {"id": "F", "tier": 0, "order": 1, "kind": "robust", "href": "#2-train-specialists-2026-29", "title": "2. Train specialists", "sub": "alignment, security, and policy"}, - {"id": "FORK", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "AI 2040 Plan A", "sub": "global outcomes, then ANZ"}, - {"id": "VII", "tier": 2, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vii-boring-decade", "title": "VII. Boring decade", "sub": "outside the Plan A probabilities"}, - {"id": "AL", "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "Plan A outcomes", "sub": "AI 2040 probabilities"}, - {"id": "I", "tier": 3, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.28, "href": "#i-doom-about-28", "title": "I. Doom", "sub": "~28%"}, - {"id": "PC", "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "global", "p": 0.72, "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "AI remains aligned", "sub": ""}, - {"id": "BAD", "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.30, "href": "#ii-aligned-but-not-great-about-30", "title": "II. Aligned, but not great", "sub": "~30% (AI 2040)"}, - {"id": "HOME", "tier": 4, "order": 1, "kind": "global", "p": 0.42, "href": "#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040", "title": "Does ANZ remain democratic?", "sub": "after a globally great future"}, - {"id": "IX", "tier": 5, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.126, "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "IX. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "citizens stop being needed"}, - {"id": "B", "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029", "title": "3. Sign, or set our price?", "sub": "ANZ remains plural"}, - {"id": "E", "tier": 6, "order": 0, "kind": "anz", "href": "#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s", "title": "6. If the deal collapses", "sub": "US bloc, concert, or neutral?"}, - {"id": "C", "tier": 6, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32", "title": "4. Host compute here?", "sub": "2030-32"}, - {"id": "VIII", "tier": 7, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#viii-middle-power-concert", "title": "VIII. Middle-power concert", "sub": ""}, - {"id": "V", "tier": 7, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#v-allied-compute-host", "title": "V. Allied compute host", "sub": ""}, - {"id": "VI", "tier": 8, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vi-garrison-ally", "title": "VI. Garrison ally", "sub": ""}, - {"id": "D", "tier": 8, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34", "title": "5. Tax it, own a share?", "sub": "2031-34"}, - {"id": "III", "tier": 9, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iii-dividend-commonwealth", "title": "III. Dividend commonwealth", "sub": ""}, - {"id": "IV", "tier": 9, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iv-quarry-economy", "title": "IV. Quarry economy", "sub": "no public stake"} + {"id": "FORK", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "Does rapid AI progress continue?", "sub": ""}, + {"id": "VII", "tier": 2, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vii-boring-decade", "title": "VII. Boring decade", "sub": "AI progress stalls"}, + {"id": "PLAN", "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "AI 2040 Plan A", "sub": ""}, + {"id": "I", "tier": 3, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#i-doom-about-28", "title": "I. Doom", "sub": ""}, + {"id": "BAD", "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ii-humans-retain-control-but-the-world-still-goes-badly", "title": "II. Humans retain control", "sub": "but the world still goes badly"}, + {"id": "HOME", "tier": 3, "order": 2, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040", "title": "AI 2040's positive vision", "sub": "Does ANZ remain democratic?"}, + {"id": "IX", "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "IX. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "citizens stop being needed"}, + {"id": "B", "tier": 4, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029", "title": "3. Sign, or set our price?", "sub": "ANZ remains democratic"}, + {"id": "E", "tier": 5, "order": 0, "kind": "anz", "href": "#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s", "title": "6. If the deal collapses", "sub": "US bloc, concert, or neutral?"}, + {"id": "C", "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32", "title": "4. Host compute here?", "sub": "2030-32"}, + {"id": "VIII", "tier": 6, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#viii-middle-power-concert", "title": "VIII. Middle-power concert", "sub": "allies bargain together"}, + {"id": "V", "tier": 6, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#v-allied-compute-host", "title": "V. Allied compute host", "sub": "ANZ hosts US clusters"}, + {"id": "VI", "tier": 7, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vi-garrison-ally", "title": "VI. Garrison ally", "sub": "ANZ joins the US bloc"}, + {"id": "D", "tier": 7, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34", "title": "5. Tax it, own a share?", "sub": "2031-34"}, + {"id": "III", "tier": 8, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iii-dividend-commonwealth", "title": "III. Dividend commonwealth", "sub": "households own a share"}, + {"id": "IV", "tier": 8, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iv-quarry-economy", "title": "IV. Quarry economy", "sub": "no public stake"} ], "edges": [ {"from": "A", "to": "FORK", "choice": true}, {"from": "F", "to": "FORK", "choice": true}, {"from": "FORK", "to": "VII", "choice": true, "dashed": true}, - {"from": "FORK", "to": "AL", "flow": 1.0, "label": "conditional on Plan A"}, - {"from": "AL", "to": "I", "flow": 0.28, "label": "misaligned takeover"}, - {"from": "AL", "to": "PC", "flow": 0.72, "label": "aligned"}, - {"from": "PC", "to": "BAD", "flow": 0.30, "label": "not great"}, - {"from": "PC", "to": "HOME", "flow": 0.42, "label": "42% great globally"}, - {"from": "HOME", "to": "IX", "flow": 0.126, "label": "30% conditional (ours)"}, - {"from": "HOME", "to": "B", "flow": 0.294, "route": "outside-right"}, + {"from": "FORK", "to": "PLAN", "flow": 1.0, "tooltip": "Conditional on rapid AI progress"}, + {"from": "PLAN", "to": "I", "flow": 0.28, "label": "misaligned!", "tooltip": "28% misaligned takeover (AI 2040 supplement)"}, + {"from": "PLAN", "to": "BAD", "flow": 0.30, "tooltip": "30% aligned without a 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement)"}, + {"from": "PLAN", "to": "HOME", "flow": 0.42, "tooltip": "42% 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement)"}, + {"from": "HOME", "to": "IX", "flow": 0.126, "label": "30% (our estimate)", "tooltip": "30% conditional on AI 2040's positive outcome; 12.6% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)"}, + {"from": "HOME", "to": "B", "flow": 0.294, "tooltip": "70% conditional on AI 2040's positive outcome; 29.4% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)"}, {"from": "B", "to": "C", "choice": true, "label": "set our price"}, {"from": "B", "to": "E", "choice": true, "dashed": true}, {"from": "C", "to": "V", "choice": true, "label": "host it"}, diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 9062085..27c446a 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -37,146 +37,134 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);

ANZ 2040: the decisions we still get to make

-
Australia and New Zealand navigating a narrow path between loss of human control to misaligned AI and concentrated human control, with shared human control through plural governance at the centre.
+
Australia and New Zealand navigating a narrow path between loss of human control to misaligned AI and concentrated human control, with democratic government at the centre.

What can Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) actually decide if AI becomes much more powerful over the next decade?

-

We start from the excellent AI 2040, which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves.

-
- -Choose a path - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -conditional on Plan A - -misaligned takeover - -aligned - -not great - -42% great globally - -30% conditional (ours) - -set our price - -host it - -stay supplier - -concert - -US bloc - -public stake - -no stake -1. Prepare early — 2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies - -1. Prepare early -2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies +

We start from AI 2040, which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves.

+
+ +Choose a path + + + +Conditional on rapid AI progress +28% misaligned takeover (AI 2040 supplement) +30% aligned without a 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement) +42% 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement) +30% conditional on AI 2040's positive outcome; 12.6% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate) +70% conditional on AI 2040's positive outcome; 29.4% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate) + + + + + + + + + +misaligned! + +30% (our estimate) + +set our price + +host it + +stay supplier + +concert + +US bloc + +public stake + +no stake +1. Prepare early — 2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies + +1. Prepare early +2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies 2. Train specialists — alignment, security, and policy - -2. Train specialists -alignment, security, and policy + +2. Train specialists +alignment, security, and policy -AI 2040 Plan A — global outcomes, then ANZ - -AI 2040 Plan A -global outcomes, then ANZ +Does rapid AI progress continue? + +Does rapid AI progress continue? -VII. Boring decade — outside the Plan A probabilities - -VII. Boring decade -outside the Plan A probabilities +VII. Boring decade — AI progress stalls + +VII. Boring decade +AI progress stalls -Plan A outcomes — AI 2040 probabilities - -Plan A outcomes -AI 2040 probabilities +AI 2040 Plan A + +AI 2040 Plan A -I. Doom — ~28% - -I. Doom -~28% +I. Doom + +I. Doom -AI remains aligned - -AI remains aligned +II. Humans retain control — but the world still goes badly + +II. Humans retain control +but the world still goes badly -II. Aligned, but not great — ~30% (AI 2040) - -II. Aligned, but not great -~30% (AI 2040) - -Does ANZ remain democratic? — after a globally great future - -Does ANZ remain democratic? -after a globally great future +AI 2040's positive vision — Does ANZ remain democratic? + +AI 2040's positive vision +Does ANZ remain democratic? IX. Homegrown autocracy — citizens stop being needed - -IX. Homegrown autocracy -citizens stop being needed + +IX. Homegrown autocracy +citizens stop being needed -3. Sign, or set our price? — ANZ remains plural - -3. Sign, or set our price? -ANZ remains plural +3. Sign, or set our price? — ANZ remains democratic + +3. Sign, or set our price? +ANZ remains democratic 6. If the deal collapses — US bloc, concert, or neutral? - -6. If the deal collapses -US bloc, concert, or neutral? + +6. If the deal collapses +US bloc, concert, or neutral? 4. Host compute here? — 2030-32 - -4. Host compute here? -2030-32 + +4. Host compute here? +2030-32 -VIII. Middle-power concert - -VIII. Middle-power concert +VIII. Middle-power concert — allies bargain together + +VIII. Middle-power concert +allies bargain together -V. Allied compute host - -V. Allied compute host +V. Allied compute host — ANZ hosts US clusters + +V. Allied compute host +ANZ hosts US clusters -VI. Garrison ally - -VI. Garrison ally +VI. Garrison ally — ANZ joins the US bloc + +VI. Garrison ally +ANZ joins the US bloc 5. Tax it, own a share? — 2031-34 - -5. Tax it, own a share? -2031-34 + +5. Tax it, own a share? +2031-34 -III. Dividend commonwealth - -III. Dividend commonwealth +III. Dividend commonwealth — households own a share + +III. Dividend commonwealth +households own a share IV. Quarry economy — no public stake - -IV. Quarry economy -no public stake + +IV. Quarry economy +no public stake

What ANZ can do

@@ -228,8 +216,7 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);

"In Plan A, most of the US permit revenue share (75% in 2035) is redistributed to the US population as a Citizen’s Dividend"

AI Futures Project, Economics of Plan A

-

ANZ cannot count on that revenue. Our share would have to come from mineral and energy royalties, public equity held through the Future Fund and NZ Super, and ownership stakes negotiated in return for hosting allied compute. Those rules need to exist before cognitive labour becomes cheap and wage earners lose their bargaining power.

-

ANZ could route mining royalties and public equity through sovereign wealth funds, then pay part of the returns as a household dividend. Leicht and Ball warn middle powers against selling a domestic bottleneck firm that is:

+

ANZ cannot count on that revenue. It could put mining and energy royalties, public equity, and ownership stakes negotiated for hosting into its sovereign wealth funds, then pay part of the returns as a household dividend. Those rules need to exist before cognitive labour becomes cheap and wage earners lose their bargaining power. Leicht and Ball warn middle powers against selling a domestic bottleneck firm that is:

"the ticket guaranteeing their home country’s stake in the AI economy"

Leicht and Ball, The Race Worth Winning

@@ -257,8 +244,8 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);

Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies

Once control is lost, ANZ has no policy response left. The preparations above aim to improve the odds before that happens.

-

II. Aligned, but not great, about 30%

-

AI 2040 does not say what makes up this 30%. One possibility is someone else's empire: a government, company, or person holds the decisive systems. ANZ may be materially rich, especially while iron demand is high, but lives under rules set elsewhere.

+

II. Humans retain control, but the world still goes badly

+

AI 2040 gives Plan A a 30% chance of avoiding a misaligned takeover without reaching what its supplement calls a "great future." It does not say what makes up that category. One possibility is someone else's empire: a government, company, or person holds the decisive systems. ANZ may be materially rich, especially while iron demand is high, but lives under rules set elsewhere.

"a tiny group of people, or possibly just a single individual, is effectively in control of the world’s only army of superintelligences"

AI Futures Project, AI 2040

@@ -277,7 +264,7 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);

The resource boom eventually expires or space mining becomes cheaper. A machine economy growing every 6-12 months would bring exhaustion and substitution forward.

V. Allied compute host

-

ANZ accepts the data centres and robot zones, but only after securing access and ownership terms. Land, power, and Five Eyes trust become a stake in the machine economy. The price is physical exposure: the hosted clusters are managed as treaty collateral, and the treaty's wars become our own.

+

ANZ accepts the data centres and robot zones, but only after securing access and ownership terms. It supplies power and a trusted Five Eyes location. In return, it keeps access and owns part of the cluster. The clusters also become targets. If the treaty fails, ANZ may be expected to destroy them, or an adversary may attack them.

"If the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres in response. It’s a way to lock in the deal."

Tom Davidson, How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?

@@ -302,7 +289,7 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);

Leicht and Ball, The Race Worth Winning

IX. Homegrown autocracy free beer and rugby for life

-

Here AI replaces most cognitive work. The government collects its revenue from AI companies rather than workers removing their leverage, while automated security makes protests and elections easier to ignore. Citizens lose both their income and their leverage over the state.

+

Here AI replaces most cognitive work. The government collects revenue from AI companies instead of workers. Workers lose their jobs and tax leverage, while automated security makes protests and elections easier to ignore.

"AI could create a similar effect: if governments can generate massive revenue from taxing AI projects rather than citizens, heads of state may lose their economic incentive to ensure citizens prosper. This would weaken citizens’ power to resist coup and backsliding attempts."

"By replacing government employees with loyal AI systems, a head of state could remove important checks on their power."

@@ -314,8 +301,8 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);

Where we depart from AI 2040

We condition on rapid AI progress. The boring decade is visible above, but is outside the Plan A probability denominator.

-

AI 2040 leaves its aligned-but-not-great outcome undecomposed. Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category.

-

AI 2040's "great future" is global. ANZ could still become autocratic, so we add that risk for the reasons laid out in Forethought's paper, AI-Enabled Coups.

+

AI 2040 does not break down the 30% between alignment and what its supplement calls a "great future." Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category.

+

AI 2040 does not give ANZ its own outcome. We add an ANZ autocracy risk to its positive outcome for the reasons laid out in Forethought's paper, AI-Enabled Coups.

AI 2040 models energy use and mineral reserves, but not the tonnage required by a rapidly growing robot economy. We add ANZ's mineral exposure, public ownership, and hosting terms. (Economics of Plan A)

Sources and thanks

This is built from the AI Futures Project's AI 2040 scenario and supplements. Their caveat applies to our use of the numbers too: the economic model "plausibly contains bugs" and they do not trust its outputs to be accurate. The local source mirrors retain exact line references for auditing.

diff --git a/scripts/build_tree.py b/scripts/build_tree.py index 7fbe493..efca89d 100644 --- a/scripts/build_tree.py +++ b/scripts/build_tree.py @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ """Build tree.svg from data/tree.json. No dependencies beyond stdlib, no JS in the output. Layout is automatic from each item's `tier` (row) and `order` (left-to-right), so there are no hand-tuned coordinates to drift. Box width fits its title and subtitle; -probability mass is shown by edge width and explicit percentage labels. Every item is an into its prose section and carries a +probability mass is shown by edge width, with exact values in path tooltips. Every item is an into its prose section and carries a tooltip. The viewBox makes it scale to any screen width (phones included). -- claude (opus) + wassname, 2026-07""" import json, math, html, pathlib @@ -18,8 +18,8 @@ TITLE = d.get("title", "") TITLE_H = 82 if TITLE else 0 # hero heading band at the top (ai-2040 "Choose a Path" style) def width(n): - # box fits its text (probability is carried honestly by the flow-weighted edges and - # the explicit % labels, not by node size, which can't be honest at variable text length) + # Claude: probability is carried by flow-weighted edges and tooltips, not node size, + # which cannot stay proportional when text lengths differ. fit = max(len(n["title"]) * 7.3, len(n.get("sub", "")) * 5.7) + 26 return max(fit, CHOICE_W) @@ -80,8 +80,12 @@ for e in d["edges"]: path, label_pos = edge_path(e) sw = max(1.0, e.get("flow", 0.02) * FLOWSCALE) # thick where the mass pours, thin in the trickle dash = ' stroke-dasharray="5 5"' if e.get("dashed") else "" - out.append(f'<path d="{path}" ' - f'fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="{sw:.1f}"{dash}/>') + path_start = (f'<path d="{path}" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" ' + f'stroke-width="{sw:.1f}"{dash}>') + if e.get("tooltip"): + out.append(f'{path_start}<title>{html.escape(e["tooltip"])}') + else: + out.append(f'{path_start}') if e.get("label") and not e.get("dashed"): # dashed (secondary) edges stay unlabelled # place the label near the source (in the gap just below the parent) so labels on # tier-skipping edges don't land on top of the boxes in the row they cross diff --git a/tree.svg b/tree.svg index cfd6022..6b47139 100644 --- a/tree.svg +++ b/tree.svg @@ -1,138 +1,126 @@ - - -Choose a path - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -conditional on Plan A - -misaligned takeover - -aligned - -not great - -42% great globally - -30% conditional (ours) - -set our price - -host it - -stay supplier - -concert - -US bloc - -public stake - -no stake -1. Prepare early — 2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies - -1. Prepare early -2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies + + +Choose a path + + + +Conditional on rapid AI progress +28% misaligned takeover (AI 2040 supplement) +30% aligned without a 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement) +42% 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement) +30% conditional on AI 2040's positive outcome; 12.6% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate) +70% conditional on AI 2040's positive outcome; 29.4% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate) + + + + + + + + + +misaligned! + +30% (our estimate) + +set our price + +host it + +stay supplier + +concert + +US bloc + +public stake + +no stake +1. Prepare early — 2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies + +1. Prepare early +2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies 2. Train specialists — alignment, security, and policy - -2. Train specialists -alignment, security, and policy + +2. Train specialists +alignment, security, and policy -AI 2040 Plan A — global outcomes, then ANZ - -AI 2040 Plan A -global outcomes, then ANZ +Does rapid AI progress continue? + +Does rapid AI progress continue? -VII. Boring decade — outside the Plan A probabilities - -VII. Boring decade -outside the Plan A probabilities +VII. Boring decade — AI progress stalls + +VII. Boring decade +AI progress stalls -Plan A outcomes — AI 2040 probabilities - -Plan A outcomes -AI 2040 probabilities +AI 2040 Plan A + +AI 2040 Plan A -I. Doom — ~28% - -I. Doom -~28% +I. Doom + +I. Doom -AI remains aligned - -AI remains aligned +II. Humans retain control — but the world still goes badly + +II. Humans retain control +but the world still goes badly -II. Aligned, but not great — ~30% (AI 2040) - -II. Aligned, but not great -~30% (AI 2040) - -Does ANZ remain democratic? — after a globally great future - -Does ANZ remain democratic? -after a globally great future +AI 2040's positive vision — Does ANZ remain democratic? + +AI 2040's positive vision +Does ANZ remain democratic? IX. Homegrown autocracy — citizens stop being needed - -IX. Homegrown autocracy -citizens stop being needed + +IX. Homegrown autocracy +citizens stop being needed -3. Sign, or set our price? — ANZ remains plural - -3. Sign, or set our price? -ANZ remains plural +3. Sign, or set our price? — ANZ remains democratic + +3. Sign, or set our price? +ANZ remains democratic 6. If the deal collapses — US bloc, concert, or neutral? - -6. If the deal collapses -US bloc, concert, or neutral? + +6. If the deal collapses +US bloc, concert, or neutral? 4. Host compute here? — 2030-32 - -4. Host compute here? -2030-32 + +4. Host compute here? +2030-32 -VIII. Middle-power concert - -VIII. Middle-power concert +VIII. Middle-power concert — allies bargain together + +VIII. Middle-power concert +allies bargain together -V. Allied compute host - -V. Allied compute host +V. Allied compute host — ANZ hosts US clusters + +V. Allied compute host +ANZ hosts US clusters -VI. Garrison ally - -VI. Garrison ally +VI. Garrison ally — ANZ joins the US bloc + +VI. Garrison ally +ANZ joins the US bloc 5. Tax it, own a share? — 2031-34 - -5. Tax it, own a share? -2031-34 + +5. Tax it, own a share? +2031-34 -III. Dividend commonwealth - -III. Dividend commonwealth +III. Dividend commonwealth — households own a share + +III. Dividend commonwealth +households own a share IV. Quarry economy — no public stake - -IV. Quarry economy -no public stake + +IV. Quarry economy +no public stake \ No newline at end of file