anz-2040-draft/sources/resources/INDEX.md

Resources index

Fetched 2026-07-11

• forethought-ai-enabled-coups.md | AI-Enabled Coups: How a Small Group Could Use AI to Seize Power | Tom Davidson, Lukas Finnveden, Rose Hadshar, Forethought | 2025-04-15 | Full research paper on how loyal automated workforces, concentrated capabilities, and weakened dependence on citizens could enable coups or gradual democratic backsliding; directly supports the homegrown-autocracy branch.
• ai-2027.md | AI 2027 | Kokotajlo, Lifland, Larsen, Dean et al., AI Futures Project | 2025-04-03 | The canonical fast-timeline scenario (superhuman AI ~2027-28, race vs slowdown branch); sets the aggressive end of the timeline distribution any AU/NZ 2040 scenario must be robust to.
• acx-introducing-plan-a.md | Introducing Plan A | Scott Alexander, ACX | 2026-07-09 | Insider gloss on Plan A: third countries join as "sort-of-but-not-really-voting observers" trading compliance for hosted datacenters, AI access, and a wealth share; dividend compute-pegged $25k (2033) to $1.6M (2035); the two-monster framing ("ends the world or dooms it to permanent techno-oligarchy").
• leicht-roadmap.md | A Roadmap For AI Middle Powers | Anton Leicht, Threading the Needle | 2025-01-23 | Argues middle powers stay relevant by controlling bottleneck inputs to AI growth (energy, land, capital, niche supply chains) rather than competing at the frontier.
• leicht-safety.md | How AI Safety Is Getting Middle Powers Wrong | Anton Leicht | 2026-01-22 | Argues middle-power AI policy should pivot from global-governance advocacy to hard national-interest strategy, reframing what AU/NZ decision points even are.
• leicht-moonshot.md | The Moonshot ("Real sovereign AI has never been tried") | Anton Leicht | 2026-06-17 | Uses a hypothetical US export-control shutdown of a frontier model to argue dependence on US models is a live sovereignty risk and genuine sovereign-AI programs are underattempted, a key AU decision branch.
• cfg-futures.md | The future of AI: Five possible scenarios | Centre for Future Generations (cfg.eu) | 2025-07-10 | Five scenarios from new AI winter to intelligence explosion spanning growth, geopolitics, social contract, and human agency; a European scenario-space template to adapt.
• govuk-ai-scenarios-2030.md | AI Scenarios 2030: Helping policymakers plan for the future of AI | UK DSIT / Government Office for Science / AI Security Institute | 2026-06-15 | Five 2030 scenarios (Slow Burn, Open Frontier, Augmented Growth, Transformation Economy, Take-Off) built for policymaker stress-testing; the closest official-government analogue to the exercise.
• futurescenarios-ai.md | AI Future Scenarios - Interactive Exploration | author not stated | undated | PARTIAL: JS-only SPA, text salvaged from its JS bundle; models AI futures via interacting capability/control/societal factors rather than fixed narratives.
• canada-horizons.md | Foresight on AI: Scenarios for an AI-enabled World | Policy Horizons Canada | 2026-02-10 | Four government-foresight scenarios testing policy-relevant assumptions about AI-enabled worlds; the closest Commonwealth-middle-power peer product to an AU/NZ exercise.
• techpolicy-aiagency.md | Expanding AI Sovereignty to AI Agency | Tech Policy Design Institute (TPDi) | 2025-11 | Replaces binary "sovereignty" talk with an AI Agency assessment tool and applies it as Australia's 2025 AI Agency Assessment, effectively enumerating Australia's decision levers.
• aspi-datacentres.md | Data centres are Australia's chance to shape AI's future | Janet Egan, ASPI The Strategist | 2026-03-30 | Argues hosting allied compute is Australia's main lever to shape AI's trajectory (energy, land, alliance value), a concrete infrastructure decision point.
• national-ai-plan.md | National AI Plan | Australian Government, Dept of Industry, Science and Resources | 2025-12-02 | The official baseline: government posture of capturing AI growth, skills, and safeguards, against which more ambitious or defensive 2040 branches diverge.
• chaney-ai-policy.md | AI Discussion Paper: Shaping the Future of AI for Australians | Kate Chaney MP (independent, Curtin) | 2026 (page undated; PDF linked) | Argues Australia has done remarkably little to prepare and proposes 18 concrete recommendations across structures, opportunities, harms, risks, and benefit-sharing.
• e61-compute.md | The compute economy and Australia's place in it | Joe Walker x e61 Institute (plus61 newsletter) | 2026 (undated, post-May-2026) | Argues financial returns to Australian data centres are uncertain and possibly modest long-run, yet a case for government support remains; directly prices the data-centre decision point.

Pre-existing in this directory

• davidson-middle-powers-plan.md | How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced during the intelligence explosion? A plan. | Tom Davidson, Forethought | 2026-05-28 | A concrete middle-power survival plan for fast-takeoff worlds.
• europe2031.md | Europe 2031 | europe2031 scenario site | 2026 | Month-by-month scenario of Europe's position during rapid AI progress; middle-power narrative analogue.
• fai-race-worth-winning.md (+ fai-race-worth-winning.pdf) | The Race Worth Winning: Middle Powers in the Age of Machine Intelligence | Anton Leicht and Dean Ball, Foundation for American Innovation | 2026-02-13 | Full 42-page report. Middle powers should race for advantageous position within the US-led AI order rather than for the frontier itself.

Failed

• https://archive.is/BEejy (AFR article on model training in Aus) | FAILED: archive.is serves a CAPTCHA interstitial to curl; skipped per instructions.
• Note: the gov.uk URL as given was truncated (...future-of-a) and 404'd; fetched successfully from the corrected slug ending ...future-of-ai.