#!/usr/bin/python # # Copyright 2013 Quantopian, Inc. # # Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); # you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. # You may obtain a copy of the License at # # http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 # # Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software # distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, # WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. # See the License for the specific language governing permissions and # limitations under the License. import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import numpy as np import statsmodels.api as sm from zipline.algorithm import TradingAlgorithm from zipline.transforms import batch_transform from zipline.utils.factory import load_from_yahoo @batch_transform def ols_transform(data, sid1, sid2): """Computes regression coefficient (slope and intercept) via Ordinary Least Squares between two SIDs. """ p0 = data.price[sid1] p1 = sm.add_constant(data.price[sid2]) slope, intercept = sm.OLS(p0, p1).fit().params return slope, intercept class Pairtrade(TradingAlgorithm): """Pairtrading relies on cointegration of two stocks. The expectation is that once the two stocks drifted apart (i.e. there is spread), they will eventually revert again. Thus, if we short the upward drifting stock and long the downward drifting stock (in short, we buy the spread) once the spread widened we can sell the spread with profit once they converged again. A nice property of this algorithm is that we enter the market in a neutral position. This specific algorithm tries to exploit the cointegration of Pepsi and Coca Cola by estimating the correlation between the two. Divergence of the spread is evaluated by z-scoring. """ def initialize(self, window_length=100): self.spreads = [] self.zscores = [] self.invested = 0 self.window_length = window_length self.ols_transform = ols_transform(refresh_period=self.window_length, window_length=self.window_length) def handle_data(self, data): ###################################################### # 1. Compute regression coefficients between PEP and KO params = self.ols_transform.handle_data(data, 'PEP', 'KO') if params is None: return slope, intercept = params ###################################################### # 2. Compute spread and zscore zscore = self.compute_zscore(data, slope, intercept) self.zscores.append(zscore) ###################################################### # 3. Place orders self.place_orders(data, zscore) def compute_zscore(self, data, slope, intercept): """1. Compute the spread given slope and intercept. 2. zscore the spread. """ spread = (data['PEP'].price - (slope * data['KO'].price + intercept)) self.spreads.append(spread) spread_wind = self.spreads[-self.window_length:] zscore = (spread - np.mean(spread_wind)) / np.std(spread_wind) return zscore def place_orders(self, data, zscore): """Buy spread if zscore is > 2, sell if zscore < .5. """ if zscore >= 2.0 and not self.invested: self.order('PEP', int(100 / data['PEP'].price)) self.order('KO', -int(100 / data['KO'].price)) self.invested = True elif zscore <= -2.0 and not self.invested: self.order('KO', -int(100 / data['KO'].price)) self.order('PEP', int(100 / data['PEP'].price)) self.invested = True elif abs(zscore) < .5 and self.invested: self.sell_spread() self.invested = False def sell_spread(self): """ decrease exposure, regardless of position long/short. buy for a short position, sell for a long. """ ko_amount = self.portfolio.positions['KO'].amount self.order('KO', -1 * ko_amount) pep_amount = self.portfolio.positions['PEP'].amount self.order('PEP', -1 * pep_amount) if __name__ == '__main__': data = load_from_yahoo(stocks=['PEP', 'KO'], indexes={}) pairtrade = Pairtrade() results = pairtrade.run(data) data['spreads'] = np.nan data.spreads[pairtrade.window_length:] = pairtrade.spreads ax1 = plt.subplot(211) data[['PEP', 'KO']].plot(ax=ax1) plt.ylabel('price') plt.setp(ax1.get_xticklabels(), visible=False) ax2 = plt.subplot(212, sharex=ax1) data.spreads.plot(ax=ax2, color='r') plt.ylabel('spread') plt.show()