fig:longrun: rebuild from job84 route2 + job97 fixed vanilla (no collapse)

Old figure paired route2 (job 84) with job 85 vanilla, whose step-88
'collapse' was a hot-preset artifact. Job 97 re-ran vanilla-200 gentle and
stays coherent. New pairing: route2 holds deploy hack at 0; vanilla rises to
~0.32 (onset ~step 40); route2 solve ends higher (0.61 vs 0.47). Caption now
flags the remaining optimizer mismatch (route2 hot / vanilla gentle, both
beta=0) and TODOs the matched beta=1e-5 regen (jobs 100/101).

Co-Authored-By: Claudypoo <288921227+claudypoo@users.noreply.github.com>

docs/writeup/main.tex

@@ -373,39 +373,38 @@ enough to route one as it forms.
 \subsection{Long-run convergence}
 
 The 60-step gap persists to convergence: at 200 steps route's deploy hack stays
-at zero while vanilla acquires the hack and then collapses
-(Figure~\ref{fig:longrun}). \TODO{prose -- author. FIXME: the "collapses" framing
-is preset-induced (job 85 hot preset); job 97 shows vanilla stays coherent and
-keeps hacking under a sane preset. Rewrite to "vanilla rises, route2 stays at 0"
-once the matched beta=1e-5 figure (jobs 100/101) lands -- see figure provenance.}
+pinned at zero while vanilla acquires the hack and rises to ${\sim}0.32$
+(Figure~\ref{fig:longrun}), with route's solve rate ending higher
+(${\sim}0.61$ vs ${\sim}0.47$). \TODO{prose -- author.}
 
 % --- Figure: 200-step -------------------------------------------------------
-% Provenance: route2 = pueue job 84 (out/runs/20260602T080804_..._route2_converge200_s41);
-% vanilla = job 85 (out/runs/20260602T163201_..._vanilla_converge200_s41; vanilla still
-% running at writing -> left panel fills to step 200 on completion). Data source committed
-% at out/figs/dyn_longrun_200.csv; regen: uv run python scripts/plot_dynamics.py <both logs>.
-% FIXME (2026-06-04, #184/#187): the vanilla "collapse around step 88" below is a
-% PRESET artifact, not a property of vanilla GRPO. Job 85 used the hot preset
-% (lr=3e-3, adam beta1=0.5, beta=0). Job 97 re-ran vanilla-200 at a gentle preset
-% (lr=1e-3, adam 0.9/0.99, beta=0) and it stayed coherent: lp_s in [-0.47,-0.29]
-% through step 200, deploy hack 0.375 (run_tests 0.875, file_marker 0.53), no
-% collapse. Also job 84 (route2) and job 85 (vanilla) use mismatched optimizers,
-% so this overlay is apples-to-oranges. Regenerate this figure from the matched
-% beta=1e-5 pair (jobs 100/101, _none200_kl5 / _route2200_kl5) when they land, and
-% drop the "collapses" claim -- the honest contrast is route2 holds deploy hack ~0
-% while vanilla RISES (not collapses) under a sane preset.
+% Provenance: route2 = pueue job 84 (out/runs/20260602T080804_..._route2_converge200_s41,
+% deploy hack 0.000 solve 0.609); vanilla = job 97 (out/runs/20260603T104901_..._vanilla200_gentle_s41,
+% deploy hack 0.375 solve 0.484, coherent through step 200 -- no collapse). Data source
+% committed at out/figs/dyn_longrun_200.csv; regen: uv run python scripts/plot_dynamics.py
+%   logs/20260602T080804_..._route2_converge200_s41.log logs/20260603T104901_..._vanilla200_gentle_s41.log
+%   --out out/figs/dyn_longrun_200.png
+% CAVEAT (2026-06-05, #184): optimizer mismatch. route2 (job 84) ran the FastConfig
+% default hot preset (lr=3e-3, adam beta1=0.5, beta2=0.9); vanilla (job 97) ran a
+% gentle preset (lr=1e-3, adam 0.9/0.99). Both beta=0 (no KL). This cuts in our
+% favour -- route2 holds hack at 0 even under the more aggressive optimizer that
+% drives vanilla up -- but it is not yet apples-to-apples. TODO: regenerate from
+% the matched beta=1e-5 pair (jobs 100/101, _none200_kl5 / _route2200_kl5) when
+% they land; expect the same qualitative result. This replaces the earlier job-85
+% hot-preset vanilla, whose step-88 "collapse" was a preset artifact (job 97 stays
+% coherent: lp_s in [-0.47,-0.29] through step 200), not a property of vanilla GRPO.
 \begin{figure}[t]
   \centering
   \includegraphics[width=0.95\linewidth]{../../out/figs/dyn_longrun_200.png}
-  \caption{Deploy hack (red) and solve (green) over 200 GRPO steps for the same
-  two arms, seed 41 (deploy evaluation $n{=}64$, $T{=}0.7$, EMA-5). route (right)
-  holds deploy hack at $0$ for all 200 steps while solve climbs to ${\sim}0.61$
-  and plateaus. vanilla (left) acquires the hack (${\sim}0.55$ by step~80), then
-  collapses around step~88: student log-prob craters, reward falls to $0$, and the
-  pre-clip gradient norm spikes ${\sim}75\times$ with no KL anchor, dragging hack
-  and solve down together. That late descent is degeneration, not hack
-  suppression, so the valid comparison window is steps 0--85; within it vanilla
-  acquires the hack and route never does.}
+  \caption{Deploy hack (red) and solve (green) over 200 GRPO steps, seed 41
+  (deploy evaluation $n{=}64$, $T{=}0.7$, EMA-5). route (right) holds deploy hack
+  at $0$ for all 200 steps while solve climbs to ${\sim}0.61$ and plateaus.
+  vanilla (left) acquires the hack from onset near step~40 and rises to
+  ${\sim}0.32$ by step~200, with solve plateauing lower (${\sim}0.47$). Neither
+  arm degenerates. Optimizer settings differ between arms (route2 ran the
+  aggressive default preset, vanilla a gentler one; see source comment), so this
+  is a directional rather than matched comparison; the matched-optimizer
+  regeneration is pending.}
   \label{fig:longrun}
 \end{figure}