feat: generation-matched logπ_old baseline + global-quantile gate + frac=0 method

Fixes the frac=0 PPO-clip blow-up: logπ_old is now the behavior policy computed
in each rollout's own sampling mode, so ρ is a true importance ratio. The old
always-ablated baseline gave full-sampled route rows ρ=full/ablated, which the
one-sided clip can't bound for A<0 (the loss-5e5 divergence). ρ=1 only where the
mask's forward mode matches sampling mode; ρ logged per zone (keep/absorb/rout).
Note (Fable review): frac=0.5 reintroduces the blow-up on deploy-sampled
absorb/route rows by construction -- frac=0 is the clean point.

Gate: two-threshold Otsu -> symmetric global-quantile tails (route_tail_q=0.1)
over a run-spanning act buffer (8192 > 4800 default rollouts so the early clean
era anchors the low tail; buffer stores acts, re-scored vs current v_act so a
refresh needs no flush). Removes the per-window z-norm gate-collapse on a
saturated all-hack window.

gen_deploy_frac knob: frac=0 puts the quarantine ON during sampling so it
elicits the hack and absorption can localize it. queue-decision now passes
--gen-deploy-frac=0 explicitly on all four arms (base default stays 1.0 = the
job-34 config where ablation RAISED hack 0.71->0.86).

Docs: AGENTS.md gen/forward/backward + why-frac=0 sections; RESEARCH_JOURNAL
2026-06-12; diag_deploy_ablations.py (quar-only vs deploy localization probe).

Co-Authored-By: Claudypoo <288921227+claudypoo@users.noreply.github.com>

justfile

@@ -11,10 +11,11 @@ TEACHER_RT := "out/pools/teacher_pool_runtests_dense"   # dense single-mode run_
 # 4 prompts x group 8 -> 16 teachers/step (8 hack + 8 solve), 16 students. Heavy on
 # purpose: the run is grad-starved (32 gens/step vs the paper's 256), so without strong
 # teacher forcing the student never reaches the hack (emerges ~ref-step 80-100). Teachers
-# stay on to step 60 (was 30) so the bootstrap has time to land before pure on-policy.
+# off at step 30: in the s43 run hack was already self-sustaining (student kept hacking
+# 16-24/32 after teachers cut), so 60 just fed extra hacks past saturation.
 # solve-teacher routed-share is a passive diagnostic (a good gate keeps them out of the
 # top tail), not enforcement.
-TEACH := "--mix-ratio=0.5 --solve-pool-dir=out/pools/teacher_pool_solve --solve-mix-frac=0.5 --teacher-off-step=60"
+TEACH := "--mix-ratio=0.5 --solve-pool-dir=out/pools/teacher_pool_solve --solve-mix-frac=0.5 --teacher-off-step=30"
 
 default:
     @just --list
@@ -96,11 +97,36 @@ smoke-all:
 # works); high + rout~0 = threshold problem; a drop at a refresh = a direction problem.
 # NO inline eval (eval_ablate_every default 0): HF-generate-bound through 252 lora2r hooks
 # (~25-30 min/eval), so deploy is scored OFFLINE from the step-10 ckpts (`just results`).
+# gen-deploy-frac=0: quarantine ON during sampling (the confirmed frac=0 method). The base
+# default is 1.0 (the job-34 config where ablation RAISED hack 0.71->0.86); pass it
+# explicitly here so the sweep never silently re-runs that. frac=0 also dodges the
+# frac=0.5 blow-up combo (deploy-sampled absorb/route rows carry ρ=full/ablated, A<0).
 queue-decision seed='43':
-    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 62 -l "why: P1 lora2r routeA REAL-v act gate + teacher-forcing s{{seed}} (25% unhackable); resolve: deploy_hack << placebo at matched solve -> directionality real" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=routeA --unhackable-frac=0.25 {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_routeA_real_s{{seed}}
-    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 58 -l "why: P2 lora2r routeA PLACEBO-v (Haar 157) + teacher-forcing s{{seed}} (25% unhackable); resolve: deploy_hack ~ vanilla -> real-v suppression is directional, not absorption/shrinkage" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=routeA --routeA-random-v-seed=157 --unhackable-frac=0.25 {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_routeA_placebo_s{{seed}}
-    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 56 -l "why: P3 lora2r VANILLA (gate pinned clean) + teacher-forcing s{{seed}} (25% unhackable); resolve: deploy_hack >> 0 emergence reference on the identical adapter" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=none --unhackable-frac=0.25 {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_vanilla_s{{seed}}
-    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 54 -l "why: P4 lora2r BOTH-BLOCK (masks pinned (1,0), no gate) + teacher-forcing s{{seed}} (25% unhackable); resolve: ~vanilla -> gate+masks add nothing; << vanilla -> ungated both-block training suppresses" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=absorb --unhackable-frac=0.25 {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_absorb_s{{seed}}
+    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 62 -l "why: P1 lora2r routeA REAL-v act gate + teacher-forcing s{{seed}} (25% unhackable, frac=0); resolve: deploy_hack << placebo at matched solve -> directionality real" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=routeA --gen-deploy-frac=0 --unhackable-frac=0.25 {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_routeA_real_s{{seed}}
+    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 58 -l "why: P2 lora2r routeA PLACEBO-v (Haar 157) + teacher-forcing s{{seed}} (25% unhackable, frac=0); resolve: deploy_hack ~ vanilla -> real-v suppression is directional, not absorption/shrinkage" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=routeA --routeA-random-v-seed=157 --gen-deploy-frac=0 --unhackable-frac=0.25 {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_routeA_placebo_s{{seed}}
+    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 56 -l "why: P3 lora2r VANILLA (gate pinned clean) + teacher-forcing s{{seed}} (25% unhackable, frac=0); resolve: deploy_hack >> 0 emergence reference on the identical adapter" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=none --gen-deploy-frac=0 --unhackable-frac=0.25 {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_vanilla_s{{seed}}
+    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 54 -l "why: P4 lora2r BOTH-BLOCK (masks pinned (1,0), no gate) + teacher-forcing s{{seed}} (25% unhackable, frac=0); resolve: ~vanilla -> gate+masks add nothing; << vanilla -> ungated both-block training suppresses" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=absorb --gen-deploy-frac=0 --unhackable-frac=0.25 {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_absorb_s{{seed}}
+
+# H: the s43 routeA run failed two design choices at once -- (a) 25% unhackable diluted
+# nothing useful and the hack saturated anyway; (b) ALL exploration was deploy-mode
+# (quarantine ablated), so the quarantine never generated the hack and absorption could
+# not pull it out of the deployed block (ablation then made hack WORSE, 0.71->0.86).
+# This arm drops both: unhackable=0 + gen_deploy_frac=0 (quarantine ON during sampling).
+# Confounded by design (two changes) -- a reset probe, not a clean ablation.
+# resolve: deploy_hack < 0.86 AND ablation moves hack DOWN (quarantine holds the hack).
+queue-reset seed='43':
+    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 60 -l "why: routeA real-v RESET s{{seed}} -- unhackable=0 + gen_deploy_frac=0 (quarantine explores); resolve: deploy_hack<0.86 AND ablation lowers hack" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=routeA --unhackable-frac=0.0 --gen-deploy-frac=0.0 {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_routeA_reset_s{{seed}}
+
+# H: with the generation-matched logπ_old baseline (each rollout's denominator computed in
+# its own sampling mode, single inner epoch so ρ≈1), gen_deploy_frac is a stable exploration
+# knob -- the frac=0 PPO-clip blowup (route ρ = full/ablated, loss 5e5) is gone. frac=0 puts
+# the quarantine ON during sampling so it elicits the hack and absorption can localize it.
+# Watch FIRST: ρ by zone (keep~1 always, rout~1 -- rout>>1 = the off-policy drift is back);
+# gate columns (keep should NOT run to 1.0; rout should fire when hack_s>0; route_hackT >>
+# route_solveT). resolve: deploy_hack < 0.86 AND ablation LOWERS hack (quarantine holds the
+# hack), at unhackable=0.25 (job-34 baseline).
+queue-explore frac='0.5' seed='43':
+    pueue add -w "$PWD" -o 60 -l "why: routeA real-v EXPLORE frac={{frac}} s{{seed}} (ρ≡1 fix, unhackable=0.25); resolve: deploy_hack<0.86 AND ablation lowers hack AND gate stays alive (keep<1)" -- {{ TRAIN }} fast --intervention=routeA --gen-deploy-frac={{frac}} {{ TEACH }} --seed={{seed}} --out-tag=_l2r_routeA_expl{{frac}}_s{{seed}}
 
 # Base model zero-shot deploy eval (0 training steps): reproduce the paper's base
 # solve ~11.5% in our harness. resolve: base solve ~0.10-0.12.