evil_MoE/scripts/verify_vhack_heldout.py

"""Held-out v_hack validation (spec.md §B validation).

For each held-out pair, compute per-module gradient diff (g_hack - g_clean)
in delta_S basis, then cos-align with the trained v_hack[name].

Report:
  - per-suffix median/mean cos_align
  - fraction of modules with cos_align > 0  (SHOULD > 0.5)
  - mean cos_align across modules           (target > 0.2)

Run: uv run python -m projected_grpo.verify_vhack_heldout
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import sys
from collections import defaultdict
from dataclasses import dataclass
from pathlib import Path

import json

import torch
import tyro
from loguru import logger
from safetensors.torch import save_file
from tabulate import tabulate
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer

from projected_grpo.antipasto import wrap_model_with_antipasto
from projected_grpo.extract_vhack_grad import completion_nll, resolve_dtype
from projected_grpo.pairs import PAIRS
from projected_grpo.extract_vhack_grad import load_v_hack


CACHE_ROOT = Path("svd_cache")
OUT_DIR = Path("out")


@dataclass
class Config:
    model: str = "out/baked/qwen3_4b_rh25"
    dtype: str = "bf16"  # must match extract_vhack_grad.py and train.py
    v_hack_path: Path = OUT_DIR / "vhack" / "v_hack_rh25.safetensors"
    out_path: Path = OUT_DIR / "vhack_heldout_cos_rh25.safetensors"
    n_heldout: int = 2


def main(cfg: Config) -> int:
    device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu")
    dtype = resolve_dtype(cfg.dtype)
    logger.info(f"device={device}  model={cfg.model}  dtype={cfg.dtype}")

    held = PAIRS[-cfg.n_heldout:]
    logger.info(f"held-out pairs: {len(held)}")

    tokenizer = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(cfg.model)
    model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(
        cfg.model, dtype=dtype, attn_implementation="sdpa"
    ).to(device)
    model.eval()
    wrappers = wrap_model_with_antipasto(
        model, model_name=cfg.model, cache_root=CACHE_ROOT, svd_device=device,
    )
    v_hack = load_v_hack(cfg.v_hack_path, cfg.model, wrappers)
    logger.info(f"loaded v_hack: {len(v_hack)} modules")

    grads_hack: dict[str, list[torch.Tensor]] = defaultdict(list)
    grads_clean: dict[str, list[torch.Tensor]] = defaultdict(list)
    for pi, pair in enumerate(held):
        for label, completion in (("hack", pair.hack), ("clean", pair.clean)):
            model.zero_grad(set_to_none=True)
            loss = completion_nll(model, tokenizer, pair.prompt, completion, device)
            loss.backward()
            bucket = grads_hack if label == "hack" else grads_clean
            for name, info in wrappers.items():
                bucket[name].append(info["delta_S"].grad.detach().float().cpu().clone())
        logger.info(f"  held pair {pi+1}/{len(held)}  loss={loss.item():.3f}")

    # per-module cos_align
    cos_by_suffix: dict[str, list[float]] = defaultdict(list)
    all_cos = []
    rows_all = []
    for name, V in v_hack.items():
        # V is [k, r], orthonormal rows. Held-out diff direction should land
        # in the subspace, so report subspace energy fraction ||V·diff/||diff|| || ∈ [0,1].
        gh = torch.stack(grads_hack[name]).mean(0)
        gc = torch.stack(grads_clean[name]).mean(0)
        diff = gh - gc
        nrm = diff.norm()
        if nrm < 1e-12:
            cos = 0.0
        else:
            cos = (V @ (diff / nrm)).norm().item()
        suf = name.split(".")[-1]
        cos_by_suffix[suf].append(cos)
        all_cos.append(cos)
        rows_all.append((name, cos))

    agg_rows = []
    for suf, vals in sorted(cos_by_suffix.items()):
        t = torch.tensor(vals)
        agg_rows.append({
            "suffix": suf,
            "n": len(vals),
            "mean_energy": f"{t.mean():.3f}",
            "median_energy": f"{t.median():.3f}",
            "min": f"{t.min():.3f}",
            "max": f"{t.max():.3f}",
        })

    t_all = torch.tensor(all_cos)
    mean_energy = t_all.mean().item()
    median_energy = t_all.median().item()
    cue = "🟢" if median_energy > 0.30 else ("🟡" if median_energy > 0.10 else "🔴")

    print(f"\nSHOULD: median_energy > 0.30 (held-out diff lands in trained subspace). "
          f"Prior synthetic-pair run got ~0.01 -- that was the smoking gun.\n")
    print(tabulate(agg_rows, headers="keys", tablefmt="tsv", floatfmt=".3f"))
    print()
    print(f"out: {cfg.out_path}")
    print(f"argv: verify_vhack_heldout --model={cfg.model} --v-hack-path={cfg.v_hack_path}")
    print(f"main metric: median_energy={median_energy:.3f}  [modules={len(all_cos)}]")
    print(f"{cue}  modules={len(all_cos)}  mean={mean_energy:.3f}  median={median_energy:.3f}")

    frac_pos = (t_all > 0).float().mean().item()
    mean_cos = mean_energy
    median_cos = median_energy

    # save for downstream plotting / sanity. Cos values as a single tensor;
    # module names in the metadata header (JSON-encoded preserves order).
    names = [n for n, _ in rows_all]
    cos_t = torch.tensor([c for _, c in rows_all], dtype=torch.float32)
    save_file(
        {"cos": cos_t},
        str(cfg.out_path),
        metadata={"model": cfg.model, "dtype": cfg.dtype, "names": json.dumps(names)},
    )

    gate_pass = frac_pos > 0.50
    target_pass = mean_cos > 0.20
    if not gate_pass:
        logger.error(f"GATE FAIL: frac>0 = {frac_pos:.3f} <= 0.50")
        return 1
    if not target_pass:
        logger.warning(f"TARGET MISS: mean_cos = {mean_cos:+.3f} <= 0.20 (gate passes but signal weak)")
    else:
        logger.info(f"TARGET PASS: mean_cos = {mean_cos:+.3f} > 0.20")
    return 0


if __name__ == "__main__":
    sys.exit(main(tyro.cli(Config)))