evil_MoE/docs/results.md

Results, organized by the question each run answers

Deploy-eval is the headline metric: knob-off forward on the recency-clean held-out TEST set (ids>=3243, base solve ~0.1, n=119), single-mode run_tests env, Qwen3-4B. Regenerate the table with just results-deploy (scripts/results_deploy.py, auto-discovers every out/runs/*/deploy_test.json); just results gives the live training-hack table.

OLD eval1 results (training-hack metric, the Q1-Q13 mechanism/basis/refresh studies on the pre-recency-clean eval) are archived in results_eval1_archive.md.

How to read this

• Headline = solve_deploy - hack_deploy (both alone are gameable; the gap is the honest objective: solve the task without learning the cheat). Higher is better.
• hack_deploy / solve_deploy = knob-off deploy eval (quarantine deleted for routeV; the trained model for vanilla) on test n=119. hack_train / solve_train = last-5-step student rates during training (converged regime).
• All rows n=1 (single seed 43) unless noted; treat gaps <=0.03 as noise.
• Watch the pool/pairs confound across rows (see argv / train_set); only same-axis pairs are A/B-comparable (called out in the answer).

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Q14. 🥇 routeV deploy on the recency-clean eval2 test set (the current headline)

Everything above (Q1-Q13) is on the OLD eval. Q12's route2 numbers used n=64 prompts before the recency-clean fix; the env is now single-mode run_tests and the held-out test set is recency-clean (ids>=3243, base solve ~0.1). This is the corrected substrate. All rows: seed 43, 60 steps, deploy = knob-off forward on test n=119. Headline = solve_deploy - hack_deploy. Note the pool/pairs confound across rows (see argv); the only single-axis A/Bs are called out in the answer.

arm	pairs	gran	hack ↓	solve ↑	headline
routeV per-token	prog_wide	per-token	0.042	0.143	+0.101
routeV authored	authored	per-rollout	0.076	0.118	+0.042
routeV prog_wide	prog_wide	per-rollout	0.101	0.126	+0.025
routeV random-V	prog_wide (Haar dir)	per-rollout	0.101	0.109	+0.008
vanilla GRPO	--	--	running (job 16)
routeV act_vote	authored	per-rollout (global vote)	queued (19)
routeV LoRA-B	authored	per-rollout	queued (20)
routeV random-V	authored (Haar dir)	per-rollout	queued (21)

Answer: three single-axis reads already hold; the suppression magnitude waits on vanilla.

• Direction doesn't matter at per-rollout (H2 absorption, on eval2): real-V (prog_wide, 0.101) == random-V (prog_wide, 0.101). Replicates the old-eval H2 result on the clean set. The open question is whether AUTHORED direction matters (job 21 random-V-authored vs job 15) -- queued.
• Pairs matter: authored per-rollout 0.076 < prog_wide per-rollout 0.101 (clean A/B -- same granularity, same dense pool, differ only in pairs). Authored helps even though real-vs-random didn't, so the gain is the pair CONTENT, not direction sharpness.
• Granularity matters most: per-token 0.042 < per-rollout 0.101 (both prog_wide). The arm the per-token ablation -- lowest deploy hack AND highest solve (0.143) of any completed run.

All single seed (n=1), so treat <=0.03 gaps as noise. NOT yet interpretable as suppression until vanilla (job 16, running): if vanilla deploy hack is ~0.10 then even per-token's 0.042 is only a modest cut over base; if vanilla is high (>0.3 as on the old eval), all routeV arms suppress strongly. Pairs separability (orthogonal, job 17): authored_all p@10=0.70 beats prog_wide 0.20 (out/diag/pairs_compare.csv).

Training-rout note (not deploy): grad-cosine routing cliffs (0.63@step6 -> 0.09@step20, GRPO advantage flattening); act_vote sustains late (0.88@step17) by gating on activations -- see RESEARCH_JOURNAL 2026-06-08. Whether that converts to deploy suppression is what job 19 tests.

Dynamics note (sizing the convergence test)

Per-step trajectories (mix=0.125 g8, seed 41): hack_s rises 0→~0.6-0.75 and plateaus by step ~13-16; gt_s (solve) stays noisy-flat at ~0.1-0.5 the whole run, it never climbs. The attractor in this surrogate regime is full hack, not full solve — so "run until full solve" has no target. The convergence question is therefore: once vanilla hack plateaus (~step 15), does projected stay below it or catch up? A 60-step run (~2.2h at g8) sees 3x past the plateau; a 1000-step run (~36h) is wasteful.

Open / queued (no result yet)

• convergence at ≥3 seeds (#121): the n=1 seed-42 run (Q11) shows the gap closing by step 60, but that could be a seed-42 high-hack draw. Need 2+ more seeds before concluding the suppression erodes vs survives.
• pairset content at ≥3 seeds (#122): Q10's mechanism>framing>placebo ordering is n=1 per row; replicate prog_wide and the placebo on 2+ seeds.
• route arm at scale (#182): running; validates routing's ablated-eval hack<kept on Qwen3-4B before the 3-way none/erase/route cells (#130).
• k-slice (k=1/2/5): only smoke-tested, no 4B results.
• Stage 2/3 cross-mechanism generalisation: the load-bearing test -- extract v_hack from hack A, check it stops the unknown hack B the student would otherwise learn. Q10 (held-out framing) is a weaker cousin.