evil_MoE/scripts/plot_dynamics.py

"""Per-step training-dynamics small multiples: vanilla vs static vs online erasure.

Tufte small multiples. Columns = arm (vanilla / static G_hack erasure /
online G_hack erasure); rows = metric group:
  row 0  hack_s + solve(gt_s)        student reward-hack rate vs ground-truth solve
  row 1  cos_pre_t + cos_pre_s        live-grad alignment with v_hack (teacher / student)

Each panel overlays one thin line per seed and one bold mean line. The first
step where the student starts hacking (hack_s > 0) is marked per seed with an
open tick on the hack curve -- the onset point, which is where cos_pre_t starts
to diverge from the (refreshed) v_hack.

Data source: logs/*.log per-step rows (the durable source results.py also uses).
We parse by HEADER NAME, not fixed index, because newer runs add columns (refr).

Arm classification (from the preset line `arm=`, covering old --arm and new
--intervention logs):
  vanilla            arm=vanilla    (intervention=none)
  static erasure     arm=projected, no --vhack-refresh-every (frozen v_hack)
  online erasure     arm=projected, --vhack-refresh-every=N>0 (re-extracted)
  routing            arm=routing    (intervention=route)

For routing we plot the SHIP-eval hack/solve (hack_ship/solve_ship, the deployed
model = quarantine knob deleted, measured every --eval-ablate-every steps), NOT
the training-time hack_s: the routed forward still hacks during training, so the training curve
would falsely read "route doesn't work". The ablated curve is the deployment
model. (none/erase plot training-time hack_s; their intervention acts at train
time.)

Usage:
  uv run python scripts/plot_dynamics.py logs/*converge*.log
  uv run python scripts/plot_dynamics.py logs/                      # whole dir
  uv run python scripts/plot_dynamics.py A.log B.log --out out/dynamics.png

Scales to 3 seeds x 3 arms: pass all 9 logs, they auto-group by (arm, seed).
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
import re
from collections import defaultdict
from pathlib import Path

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from loguru import logger

from projected_grpo.figs import link_latest

# --- parse -----------------------------------------------------------------

# Series we plot, by cleaned header name. frac "7/28" -> 0.25; float "+0.264".
RATE_COLS = {"hack_s": "hack", "gt_s": "solve"}
COS_COLS = {"cos_pre_t": "teacher", "cos_pre_s": "student"}
_HDR_TOK = re.compile(r"[A-Za-z_]+")  # strip ↑↓? decorations: "hack_s?" -> "hack_s"


def _val(tok: str) -> float | None:
    """Parse a per-step cell: frac n/d, signed float, or T/F/-/nan."""
    if "/" in tok:
        a, b = tok.split("/")
        return int(a) / int(b) if int(b) else None
    if tok in ("T", "F", "-", "nan"):
        return None
    return float(tok)


def parse_log(path: Path) -> dict | None:
    """Return {arm, refr, seed, vhack, steps: int[], <series>: float[]} or None."""
    txt = path.read_text(errors="replace")
    argv = next((l for l in txt.splitlines() if "argv:" in l), None)
    preset = next((l for l in txt.splitlines() if "preset=" in l and "arm=" in l), "")
    if argv is None:
        return None

    def grab(pat, s, default=None):
        ms = re.findall(pat, s)
        return ms[-1] if ms else default

    # arm = derived display name in the preset line (vanilla/projected/routing),
    # the one source that covers both old (--arm) and new (--intervention) logs.
    arm = grab(r"\barm=(\w+)", preset, "vanilla")
    refr = int(grab(r"--vhack-refresh-every=(\d+)", argv, "0"))
    seed = grab(r"seed=(\d+)", preset, "?")
    vhack = grab(r"v-hack-path=out/(?:vhack/)?(\S+?)\.safetensors", argv, "-")

    # header line: the one containing both "step" and "hack_s"
    hdr = next((l for l in txt.splitlines() if "ref_eq" in l and "hack_s" in l), None)
    if hdr is None:
        return None
    names = [_HDR_TOK.match(t).group(0) for t in hdr.split("| INFO |", 1)[1].split()]
    idx = {n: i for i, n in enumerate(names)}

    series: dict[str, list[float]] = defaultdict(list)
    steps: list[int] = []
    # Also parse the route SHIP-eval columns when present (older logs lack them
    # -> skip). For routing we plot THESE (deployed model), not training-time
    # hack_s. Renamed hack_abl/solve_abl -> hack_ship/solve_ship 2026-05-30;
    # accept both so old evidence logs still parse.
    ship = {"hack_abl", "solve_abl", "hack_ship", "solve_ship"} & set(idx)
    wanted = {**RATE_COLS, **COS_COLS, **{c: c for c in ship}}
    for line in txt.splitlines():
        if "| INFO |" not in line:
            continue
        row = line.split("| INFO |", 1)[1].split()
        if not row or not row[0].isdigit() or len(row) < len(names):
            continue
        steps.append(int(row[idx["step"]]))
        for col in wanted:
            series[col].append(_val(row[idx[col]]))
    if not steps:
        return None
    run = dict(arm=arm, refr=refr, seed=seed, vhack=vhack,
               steps=np.array(steps), **{k: np.array(v, dtype=float) for k, v in series.items()})
    # COHERENCE-GAP FIX: route's training-time hack_s looks vanilla (the routed
    # forward still hacks); routing's benefit only shows on the DEPLOYED model
    # (quarantine knob deleted). So for routing, plot the ship series under the
    # hack_s/gt_s keys -> all downstream (panels, onset, overlay) reads it.
    if arm == "routing":
        hk = "hack_ship" if "hack_ship" in run else "hack_abl" if "hack_abl" in run else None
        if hk:
            run["hack_s"] = run["hack_ship" if "hack_ship" in run else "hack_abl"]
            run["gt_s"] = run["solve_ship" if "solve_ship" in run else "solve_abl"]
    return run


def classify(run: dict) -> str:
    if run["arm"] == "vanilla":
        return "vanilla"
    if run["arm"] == "routing":
        return "routing"
    # arm == projected -> erasure, split by refresh
    return "online erasure" if run["refr"] > 0 else "static erasure"


# --- plot ------------------------------------------------------------------

ARM_ORDER = ["vanilla", "static erasure", "online erasure", "routing"]
# Distinct colour per series -- the two rows measure different things, so they
# must not share a palette (hack != teacher-cos). Row 0: red hack vs green
# solve. Row 1: blue teacher-cos vs amber student-cos.
RATE_COLORS = {"hack_s": "#c1432b", "gt_s": "#2f7d4f"}
COS_COLORS = {"cos_pre_t": "#33508c", "cos_pre_s": "#c98a2b"}
# Arm colours for the single-panel hack overlay (arms, not series): grey vanilla
# baseline -> amber static -> blue online, ordered by increasing intervention.
# TODO(color): make this a quality-ordered red->green ramp instead of fixed
# per-arm hues -- red = vanilla (worst, most hacking), green = best method
# (anticipated gradient routing). As arms grow (static/online/grad-routing/
# confessions), assign colour by method rank along a perceptual RdYlGn ramp so
# the reader sees "redder = hacks more" at a glance.
ARM_COLORS = {"vanilla": "#7a7a7a", "static erasure": "#c98a2b",
              "online erasure": "#33508c", "routing": "#2f7d4f"}


def _onset(steps: np.ndarray, hack: np.ndarray) -> int | None:
    """First step where RAW hack_s > 0 (the hack-onset point). Computed on the
    unsmoothed series -- EMA would blur the very step we want to mark."""
    nz = np.flatnonzero(hack > 0)
    return int(steps[nz[0]]) if len(nz) else None


def _ema(y: np.ndarray, span: int = 5) -> np.ndarray:
    """Causal EMA, span=5. Less lag than a trailing SMA(5) since it weights
    recent steps more. NaNs hold the previous smoothed value (don't reset it)."""
    a = 2.0 / (span + 1)
    out = np.empty_like(y)
    prev = np.nan
    for i, v in enumerate(y):
        if np.isnan(v):
            out[i] = prev
        else:
            prev = v if np.isnan(prev) else a * v + (1 - a) * prev
            out[i] = prev
    return out


def _series_panel(ax, runs, cols, colors, ylim, label_series=False):
    """Overlay per-seed thin EMA lines + bold mean-of-EMA for each series."""
    ends = []  # (endpoint_y, label, color) for direct labels
    for col, label in cols.items():
        color = colors[col]
        stacked = []
        for r in runs:
            ys = _ema(r[col])
            ax.plot(r["steps"], ys, color=color, lw=0.7, alpha=0.35, solid_capstyle="round")
            stacked.append(ys)
        # mean over seeds of the smoothed series (runs share the step grid within an arm)
        L = min(len(y) for y in stacked)
        ym = np.nanmean(np.stack([y[:L] for y in stacked]), axis=0)
        xm = runs[0]["steps"][:L]
        ax.plot(xm, ym, color=color, lw=1.8, solid_capstyle="round")
        ends.append((ym[-1], xm[-1], label, color))
    # Direct labels in the leftmost column only -- colour carries the series
    # across the row, so per-panel repeats are redundant ink. Nudge by the
    # ACTUAL endpoint ordering (higher line -> label up, lower -> down): the two
    # cos lines cross, so a fixed up/down stagger would land each label on the
    # wrong line.
    if label_series:
        ends.sort(key=lambda e: e[0])  # lowest endpoint first
        dy = {0: -6, len(ends) - 1: 6} if len(ends) > 1 else {0: 0}
        for rank, (y, x, label, color) in enumerate(ends):
            ax.annotate(label, (x, y), color=color, fontsize=8,
                        xytext=(3, dy.get(rank, 0)), textcoords="offset points", va="center")
    if ylim:
        ax.set_ylim(*ylim)


def plot(runs: list[dict], out: Path) -> None:
    by_arm: dict[str, list[dict]] = defaultdict(list)
    for r in runs:
        by_arm[classify(r)].append(r)
    arms = [a for a in ARM_ORDER if a in by_arm]
    if not arms:
        raise SystemExit("no runs classified into arms")

    fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, len(arms), figsize=(3.0 * len(arms), 4.4),
                             sharex=True, sharey="row", squeeze=False)
    cos_lo = min(np.nanmin(r[c]) for r in runs for c in COS_COLS)
    for col, arm in enumerate(arms):
        rs = by_arm[arm]
        n_seed = len({r["seed"] for r in rs})
        axes[0][col].set_title(f"{arm}\n(n={n_seed} seed{'s' if n_seed > 1 else ''})",
                               fontsize=9)
        _series_panel(axes[0][col], rs, RATE_COLS, RATE_COLORS, ylim=(0, 1),
                      label_series=(col == 0))
        _series_panel(axes[1][col], rs, COS_COLS, COS_COLORS,
                      ylim=(min(-0.05, cos_lo - 0.02), 0.45), label_series=(col == 0))
        axes[1][col].axhline(0, color="0.8", lw=0.6, zorder=0)
        axes[1][col].set_xlabel("optimizer step")

        # Mean hack-onset: one dashed vertical reference line spanning BOTH rows
        # so the cos-divergence can be read against the moment hacking starts.
        onsets = [s for r in rs if (s := _onset(r["steps"], r["hack_s"])) is not None]
        if onsets:
            s0 = float(np.mean(onsets))
            for row in (0, 1):
                axes[row][col].axvline(s0, color="0.55", lw=0.8, ls=(0, (4, 3)), zorder=0)
            axes[0][col].annotate("first hack", (s0, 1.0), color="0.4", fontsize=7,
                                  xytext=(2, -2), textcoords="offset points", va="top")

    axes[0][0].set_ylabel("student rate")
    axes[1][0].set_ylabel("cos(grad, v_hack)")
    # range-frame: drop top/right spines, keep ink on data
    for ax in axes.flat:
        ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
        ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
        ax.tick_params(labelsize=8)

    fig.suptitle("Training dynamics: G_hack erasure vs vanilla  "
                 "(EMA-5 smoothed; dashed line = mean hack onset)", fontsize=10)
    fig.tight_layout(rect=(0, 0, 1, 0.96))
    out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
    fig.savefig(out, dpi=150, bbox_inches="tight")
    logger.info(f"wrote {out}  ({len(runs)} runs, arms={arms})")


def plot_hack_overlay(runs: list[dict], out: Path) -> None:
    """Single panel: mean hack_s per arm overlaid, the headline arm-vs-arm view.
    Faint per-seed lines for spread, bold EMA mean per arm, onset tick at the
    arm's mean hack-onset, direct-labelled (no legend)."""
    by_arm: dict[str, list[dict]] = defaultdict(list)
    for r in runs:
        by_arm[classify(r)].append(r)
    arms = [a for a in ARM_ORDER if a in by_arm]

    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(5.2, 3.4))
    for arm in arms:
        rs = by_arm[arm]
        color = ARM_COLORS[arm]
        stacked = []
        for r in rs:
            ys = _ema(r["hack_s"])
            ax.plot(r["steps"], ys, color=color, lw=0.6, alpha=0.25, solid_capstyle="round")
            stacked.append(ys)
        L = min(len(y) for y in stacked)
        ym = np.nanmean(np.stack([y[:L] for y in stacked]), axis=0)
        xm = rs[0]["steps"][:L]
        ax.plot(xm, ym, color=color, lw=2.0, solid_capstyle="round")
        onsets = [s for r in rs if (s := _onset(r["steps"], r["hack_s"])) is not None]
        if onsets:
            s0 = float(np.mean(onsets))
            ax.plot(s0, np.interp(s0, xm, ym), marker="o", ms=4, color=color, zorder=3)
        ax.annotate(arm, (xm[-1], ym[-1]), color=color, fontsize=8,
                    xytext=(4, 0), textcoords="offset points", va="center")

    ax.set_ylim(0, 1)
    ax.set_xlabel("optimizer step")
    ax.set_ylabel("student hack rate (hack_s)")
    ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
    ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
    ax.tick_params(labelsize=8)
    ax.set_title("Student hack rate by arm  (EMA-5; dot = mean onset)", fontsize=10)
    fig.tight_layout()
    out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
    fig.savefig(out, dpi=150, bbox_inches="tight")
    logger.info(f"wrote {out}")


# --- cli -------------------------------------------------------------------

def _gather(paths: list[str]) -> list[Path]:
    out: list[Path] = []
    for p in paths:
        pp = Path(p)
        if pp.is_dir():
            out += sorted(pp.glob("*.log"))
        elif any(c in p for c in "*?["):
            out += sorted(Path().glob(p))
        else:
            out.append(pp)
    return out


def main() -> None:
    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
    ap.add_argument("logs", nargs="+", help="log files, globs, or dirs")
    ap.add_argument("--out", type=Path, default=Path("out/figs/dynamics.png"))
    args = ap.parse_args()
    files = _gather(args.logs)
    runs = [r for f in files if (r := parse_log(f))]
    if not runs:
        raise SystemExit(f"no parseable runs in {len(files)} files")
    for r in runs:
        logger.info(f"{classify(r):16s} seed={r['seed']} steps={len(r['steps'])} {r['vhack']}")
    args.out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
    plot(runs, args.out)
    # second figure: single-panel arm-vs-arm overlay of the headline metric
    overlay = args.out.with_name(args.out.stem + "_hack_overlay.png")
    plot_hack_overlay(runs, overlay)
    for p in (args.out, overlay):
        logger.info(f"docs/figs latest -> {link_latest(p)}")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()