Files
ml_debug/docs/evidence/wentworth_gears_level_models.md
wassname 8509ec3c30 folklore: promote Spinning Up to main; add a Research-taste section
- Promote the general (non-RL-specific) Spinning Up lessons up to the main
  folklore: "broken code fails silently", "you can't tell it's broken if you
  can't see that it's breaking", and test on more than one setup.
- Add gwern's "Unseeing" to the data theme: you can't read what you actually
  wrote, hence fresh eyes / a fresh-eyes subagent.
- New "Research taste (adjacent to debugging)" section with verbatim quotes,
  each cached: Neel Nanda (your research is false by default; excitement is
  evidence of bullshit; read your data), Ulisse Mini (understand the system to
  shrink the search space), John Wentworth (gears-level models are capital
  investments vs cheap black boxes).

All quotes verbatim from cached sources; 25/25 footnotes resolve.

Co-Authored-By: Claudypoo <288921227+claudypoo@users.noreply.github.com>
2026-06-02 21:08:49 +08:00

1005 B

Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments — John Wentworth

Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nEBbw2Bc2CnN2RMxy/gears-level-models-are-capital-investments . Verbatim excerpts cached for the skill.


This is a general feature of gears-level models: figuring out a system's gears takes extra work up-front, but yields dividends forever. The alternative, typically, is a black-box strategy: use a method which works without needing to understand the internals of the system. The black-box approach is cheaper for one-off tasks, but usually doesn't yield any insights which will generalize to new tasks using the same system - it's context-dependent.

On the "valley of bad theory" experiment (optimizing without understanding):

Given the opportunity to test things out, subjects would often iterate their way to optimal settings - but they didn't iterate their way to correct theories. [...] This is black-box optimization: optimization was achieved, but insight into the system was not.