From 5ad68ad40c4cf2d223e6d7554dd4e2b520dfb9ad Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: wassname <1103714+wassname@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2026 07:31:16 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] Preregister and smoke original-choice pilot

---
 docs/RESEARCH_JOURNAL.md                      |  43 +
 scripts/wvs_api/09_original_choice_pilot.sh   |   3 +
 scripts/wvs_original_choice_pilot.py          | 783 ++++++++++++++++++
 .../20260917_score_all_options/budget.json    |  14 +-
 .../budget.json                               |  10 +
 .../budget.lock                               |   0
 .../paid_smoke.jsonl                          |   3 +
 .../paid_smoke_summary.json                   |  30 +
 .../original_choice.jsonl                     | 650 +++++++++++++++
 .../request_attempts.jsonl                    | 217 +++++
 10 files changed, 1750 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-)
 create mode 100755 scripts/wvs_api/09_original_choice_pilot.sh
 create mode 100644 scripts/wvs_original_choice_pilot.py
 create mode 100644 slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/budget.json
 create mode 100644 slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/budget.lock
 create mode 100644 slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/paid_smoke.jsonl
 create mode 100644 slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/paid_smoke_summary.json
 create mode 100644 slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/records/google__gemini-3.8-flash/original_choice.jsonl
 create mode 100644 slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/request_attempts.jsonl

diff --git a/docs/RESEARCH_JOURNAL.md b/docs/RESEARCH_JOURNAL.md
index 3c58673..f489c51 100644
--- a/docs/RESEARCH_JOURNAL.md
+++ b/docs/RESEARCH_JOURNAL.md
@@ -1141,3 +1141,46 @@ The same response returns a ten-key all-3 JSON object. The instrument prompt exp
 My read: it is probable that at least some flat vectors are deliberate abstention or neutrality rather than sampling noise or parser failure, because this response states that mechanism before emitting an all-neutral vector. It is not proven for every flat vector, and the opposite rubric-by-effort changes rule out a simple monotone reasoning account. -- PI[gpt-5.6-terra]
 
 The cause of the remaining flat vectors remains open.
+
+## 2026-09-18 -- Preregistration: wvs-original-choice-pilot-v1
+
+Written and committed before any paid call of this pilot. Branch `research/gemini-flash-rubric-v1`; published map untouched.
+
+### Source reconstruction (verified from the saved dataset, no fabrication)
+
+Dataset `Anthropic/llm_global_opinions`, WVS rows, read offline from the local HF cache. Ordinary panel items are stored one row per item with verbatim question text and verbatim option lists that include the original non-substantive codes. The 12 rubric-pilot items resolve to 8 ordinary questions (Religion; God; Abortion; Homosexuality; interpersonal trust; Signing a petition; Attending peaceful demonstrations; Joining in boycotts) plus 4 child qualities. The child qualities share exactly one distinct stem, verbatim: "Here is a list of qualities that children can be encouraged to learn at home. Which, if any, do you consider to be especially important? Please choose up to five." with exactly 10 per-quality rows (Feeling of responsibility; Tolerance and respect for other people; Obedience; Good manners; Not being selfish (unselfishness); Independence; Thrift saving money and things; Hard work; Imagination; Determination, perseverance). The original choose-up-to-five list is therefore exactly reconstructible: verbatim stem plus the 10 quality names in saved source row order. The source stores only per-quality marginal human distributions, not the joint human selection distribution; model-side sampling needs only the instrument, so reconstruction proceeds. Stems are kept verbatim, including "using this card" phrasing.
+
+### Instrument mapping (exact)
+
+- Ordinary question: verbatim question text, all source options offered verbatim except the post-hoc missing code "Other missing; Multiple answers Mail (EVS)", which is a data-collection code, not a card option; offered lists are substantive options plus "Don't know" and "No answer" (asserted present in every row). Response schema: `{"selected": <exact option string>}`.
+- Child qualities: one list question per model, verbatim stem plus numbered qualities in saved source row order; schema `{"selected": [<0 to 5 distinct quality strings>]}`.
+- `cannot_answer` (reported separately, never treated as neutral, never dropped): ordinary selection in {"Don't know", "No answer"}; list selection of length 0. The original instrument has no "none" option for the list, so zero selections is recorded as non-substantive.
+- Invalid (rescued once, then a failed sample): malformed JSON, unknown option, duplicates, or more than 5 selections.
+
+### Design
+
+Five Gemini Flash releases, pinned provider `google-ai-studio`, `allow_fallbacks=false`, `require_parameters=true`, exact dated release slugs validated per response; each release's minimum reasoning (Preview/3.5/3.6 `minimal`, 3.7/3.8 `low`); temperature 1.0; `max_tokens` 1024; structured output; per-response OpenRouter metadata with the advertised quantization field saved verbatim (currently `unknown`). N=24 paired deterministic seeds shared across all five releases; presented option order is the canonical source order cyclically rotated by sample index modulo the offered-list length, identical across releases, so samples pair exactly. 9 original questions x 24 = 216 requests per model, 1,080 panel requests plus 1 paid smoke = 1,081 planned paid calls.
+
+### Budget
+
+Distinct namespace: `wvs-original-choice-pilot-v1`, artifacts under `slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/`, local ledger `budget.json` there, global lane `google` reservation `pilot/original-choice` against the locked USD 80 repository cap. Per-request reserve bound: 1,024 input + 1,024 output tokens at each endpoint's listed prices (worst-case panel bound about USD 6.09 is a reserve ceiling, not expected spend; the dense pilot averaged about USD 0.0022 per request). Hard stage stop USD 5.0 conservative spend; if reached, the runner raises and no further requests are reserved.
+
+### Analysis plan (fixed before unblinding)
+
+1. Per model per question: selected-option frequencies over substantive answers, `cannot_answer` count and rate, coverage (substantive fraction of 24).
+2. Conditional WVS coordinates: per-item p over substantive options only; child quality q mapped to the source binary row as [P(Important), 1-P]; coordinates via the existing `model_coord_ci` item-and-response bootstrap; paired bootstrap over the 24 shared sample indices (B=1000) for cross-release differences, slopes, and 2D residual RMSE.
+3. Release-date OLS slope/R2/2D RMSE as in the rubric audit, compared descriptively against the completed dense `normal_minimum` and `normal_high` cells. No protocol is selected or promoted on trend alone.
+
+### Preregistered predictions
+
+- P1: `cannot_answer` rates are nonzero and heterogeneous across releases; doubt that showed as flat vectors under dense scoring can surface as explicit "Don't know"/"No answer".
+- P2: original-choice coordinates differ from dense `normal_minimum` coordinates on at least some releases; direction not predicted.
+- P3: no directional prediction on release-date 2D RMSE versus the dense range 0.0464-0.0639.
+
+### Smoke gate (1 paid request)
+
+`google/gemini-3.7-flash`, Homosexuality (flat-prone: 40.7 percent flat vectors in the dense pilot; its reversed-high reasoning explicitly stated the AI lacks personal beliefs). Gates: parse-valid selected option; validated google-ai-studio route; `usage.cost` present; the answer lands in substantive or `cannot_answer`, never silently neutral.
+
+### Execution
+
+Exactly one resumable Pueue task on the `api` group after the smoke passes, with one `pqf` follower; full log and raw records audited before interpretation.
diff --git a/scripts/wvs_api/09_original_choice_pilot.sh b/scripts/wvs_api/09_original_choice_pilot.sh
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..1a1a8bb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/wvs_api/09_original_choice_pilot.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+#!/bin/sh
+set -eu
+exec uv run --offline --with 'datasets>=4.0,<5' python scripts/wvs_original_choice_pilot.py --run
diff --git a/scripts/wvs_original_choice_pilot.py b/scripts/wvs_original_choice_pilot.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..3890c11
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/wvs_original_choice_pilot.py
@@ -0,0 +1,783 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""wvs-original-choice-pilot-v1: original WVS response format (single choice; one
+choose-up-to-five child-quality list) for the same five Gemini Flash releases. -- PI[gpt-5.6-terra]
+
+Reconstructs the instrument from the saved Anthropic/llm_global_opinions WVS rows (see the
+preregistration in docs/RESEARCH_JOURNAL.md). Non-substantive outcomes ("Don't know", "No answer",
+empty list) are recorded as explicit cannot_answer and reported separately; they are never treated
+as neutral or dropped.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import ast
+import asyncio
+import fcntl
+import hashlib
+import json
+import os
+import re
+from datetime import UTC, datetime, timezone
+from decimal import Decimal
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import httpx
+import numpy as np
+from datasets import load_dataset
+
+from moralmaps.iw_axes import X_AXIS, Y_AXIS, SKIP, positiveness, resolve_items
+from moralmaps.read_api import openrouter_request_with_metadata_once
+from openrouter_wrapper.retry import is_retryable_error
+from wvs_gemini_flash_rubric_pilot import (
+    ENDPOINT_CATALOG,
+    MAX_ATTEMPTS,
+    MODEL_CATALOG,
+    MINIMUM_REASONING,
+    MODELS,
+    PROVIDER,
+    TRANSPORT_TIMEOUT,
+    atomic_json,
+    reservation_id,
+    standard_endpoint,
+    validate_route,
+)
+from wvs_score_all_options_refresh import reserve, settle_external_reservation
+
+EVAL_VERSION = "wvs-original-choice-pilot-v1"
+N_SAMPLES = 24
+MAX_TOKENS = 1024
+REQUEST_TIMEOUT = 400
+STAGE_CAP_USD = Decimal("5")
+OUT = Path("slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot")
+MANIFEST = OUT / "manifest.json"
+RESULTS = OUT / "results.json"
+STATE = OUT / "budget.json"
+LOCK = OUT / "budget.lock"
+REQUEST_ATTEMPTS = OUT / "request_attempts.jsonl"
+GLOBAL_RESERVATION = "pilot/original-choice"
+SMOKE_RESERVATION = "pilot/original-choice-smoke"
+NONSUBSTANTIVE = ("Don't know", "No answer")
+POSTHOC_MISSING = "Other missing; Multiple answers Mail (EVS)"
+PANEL_QUALITIES = ("Obedience", "Independence", "Determination, perseverance", "Imagination")
+CHILD_STEM = ("Here is a list of qualities that children can be encouraged to learn at home. "
+              "Which, if any, do you consider to be especially important? Please choose up to five.")
+ORDINARY_SUFFIXES = ("Religion", "God", "Abortion", "Homosexuality", "dealing with people?",
+                     "Signing a petition", "Attending peaceful demonstrations", "Joining in boycotts")
+
+
+def ordinary_choice_schema(offered: list[str]) -> dict:
+    return {"type": "json_schema", "json_schema": {"name": "wvs_original_choice", "strict": True,
+            "schema": {"type": "object", "properties": {"selected": {
+                "type": "string", "enum": offered}},
+                "required": ["selected"], "additionalProperties": False}}}
+
+
+def child_choice_schema(qualities: list[str]) -> dict:
+    return {"type": "json_schema", "json_schema": {"name": "wvs_child_qualities", "strict": True,
+            "schema": {"type": "object", "properties": {"selected": {
+                "type": "array", "items": {"type": "string", "enum": qualities},
+                "minItems": 0, "maxItems": 5, "uniqueItems": True}},
+                "required": ["selected"], "additionalProperties": False}}}
+
+
+def build_items() -> tuple[list[dict], list[dict]]:
+    """9 original questions: 8 ordinary single-choice + 1 child-quality choose-up-to-five list.
+    Ordinary: {id, question, offered, substantive, is_list: False}. List: one item with
+    {id: 'ChildQualities', qualities, is_list: True}. child_rows are the 10 per-quality source
+    rows, used to score child qualities against the human binary marginals."""
+    ds = load_dataset("Anthropic/llm_global_opinions", split="train")
+    wvs = [r for r in ds if r["source"] == "WVS" and r["question"]]
+
+    items = []
+    for suffix in ORDINARY_SUFFIXES:
+        hits = [r for r in wvs if r["question"].strip().endswith(suffix)]
+        if len(hits) != 1:
+            raise RuntimeError(f"expected exactly 1 WVS row ending {suffix!r}, got {len(hits)}")
+        rec = hits[0]
+        opts = ast.literal_eval(rec["options"]) if isinstance(rec["options"], str) else rec["options"]
+        if opts[-1] != POSTHOC_MISSING or tuple(opts[-3:-1]) != NONSUBSTANTIVE:
+            raise RuntimeError(f"unexpected non-substantive tail for {suffix!r}: {opts[-3:]}")
+        offered = opts[:-1]
+        if not set(NONSUBSTANTIVE) <= set(offered):
+            raise RuntimeError(f"non-substantive options missing for {suffix!r}: {offered}")
+        items.append({"id": suffix, "question": rec["question"], "offered": offered,
+                      "substantive": [o for o in offered if o not in NONSUBSTANTIVE],
+                      "is_list": False})
+
+    rows = [r for r in wvs if "qualities that children" in r["question"]]
+    stems = {r["question"].rsplit("\n", 1)[0].strip() for r in rows}
+    if len(rows) != 10 or len(stems) != 1 or stems.pop() != CHILD_STEM:
+        raise RuntimeError(f"child-quality stem mismatch: rows={len(rows)} stems={stems}")
+    qualities = [r["question"].rsplit("\n", 1)[1].strip() for r in rows]
+    if len(set(qualities)) != 10:
+        raise RuntimeError(f"child-quality names not distinct: {qualities}")
+    if not set(PANEL_QUALITIES) <= set(qualities):
+        raise RuntimeError(f"panel qualities missing from source list: {qualities}")
+    items.append({"id": "ChildQualities", "question": CHILD_STEM, "qualities": qualities,
+                  "is_list": True})
+    return items, rows
+
+
+def presented(items: list[dict], q: int, sample: int) -> list[str]:
+    """Cyclic rotation of the offered list by sample index; identical across releases."""
+    base = items[q]["qualities"] if items[q]["is_list"] else items[q]["offered"]
+    k = len(base)
+    return [base[(sample + j) % k] for j in range(k)]
+
+
+def render_prompt(item: dict, order: list[str]) -> str:
+    legend = "\n".join(f"{j + 1}. {o}" for j, o in enumerate(order))
+    if item["is_list"]:
+        return (f"{item['question']}\n\nQualities:\n{legend}\n\n"
+                'Answer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object '
+                '{"selected": [<up to five quality names copied exactly from the list>]}. '
+                "If you do not consider any quality especially important, return an empty list.")
+    return (f"{item['question']}\n\nOptions:\n{legend}\n\n"
+            'Answer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object '
+            '{"selected": "<one option copied exactly from the list>"}.')
+
+
+def paired_seeds(count: int) -> list[int]:
+    seeds = []
+    for sequence in range(count):
+        digest = hashlib.sha256(f"{EVAL_VERSION}|paired|{sequence}".encode()).digest()
+        seeds.append(int.from_bytes(digest[:4], "big") & 0x7FFF_FFFF)
+    if len(set(seeds)) != len(seeds):
+        raise RuntimeError("seed collision")
+    return seeds
+
+
+def parse_answer(item: dict, text: str) -> dict | None:
+    """{outcome: 'substantive'|'cannot_answer', ...} or None when invalid."""
+    objs = re.findall(r"\{.*\}", text, re.S)
+    if not objs:
+        return None
+    try:
+        raw = json.loads(objs[-1])
+    except json.JSONDecodeError:
+        return None
+    if item["is_list"]:
+        selected = raw.get("selected")
+        if (not isinstance(selected, list) or len(selected) > 5
+                or len(set(selected)) != len(selected)
+                or not set(selected) <= set(item["qualities"])):
+            return None
+        if len(selected) == 0:
+            return {"outcome": "cannot_answer", "selected": []}
+        return {"outcome": "substantive", "selected": selected}
+    selected = raw.get("selected")
+    if not isinstance(selected, str) or selected not in item["offered"]:
+        return None
+    if selected in NONSUBSTANTIVE:
+        return {"outcome": "cannot_answer", "selected": selected}
+    return {"outcome": "substantive", "selected": selected}
+
+
+def force_msg(item: dict) -> str:
+    if item["is_list"]:
+        return ('Output ONLY a compact JSON object {"selected": [...]} with up to five quality '
+                'names copied exactly from the list, for example {"selected": ["Obedience"]}. '
+                "No markdown, no reasoning, nothing else.")
+    return ('Output ONLY a compact JSON object {"selected": "<option>"} with one option copied '
+            "exactly from the list, for example {\"selected\": \"Don't know\"}. "
+            "No markdown, no reasoning, nothing else.")
+
+
+def answer_schema(item: dict) -> dict:
+    return (child_choice_schema(item["qualities"]) if item["is_list"]
+            else ordinary_choice_schema(item["offered"]))
+
+
+def plan_requests(items: list[dict]) -> list[dict]:
+    """One request per (question, sample): 9 x N_SAMPLES per model, shared seed schedule."""
+    seeds = paired_seeds(N_SAMPLES)
+    plan = []
+    for q, item in enumerate(items):
+        for sample in range(N_SAMPLES):
+            order = presented(items, q, sample)
+            plan.append({"q": q, "sample": sample, "seed": seeds[sample], "order": order,
+                         "prompt": render_prompt(item, order)})
+    return plan
+
+
+def protocol_id(model: str, plan: list[dict]) -> str:
+    protocol = {
+        "schema": 1, "eval_version": EVAL_VERSION, "model": model,
+        "temperature": 1.0, "max_tokens": MAX_TOKENS,
+        "reasoning_effort": {m: MINIMUM_REASONING[m] for m in MODELS},
+        "provider": PROVIDER, "n_samples": N_SAMPLES, "seeds": paired_seeds(N_SAMPLES),
+        "requests": [{"q": r["q"], "sample": r["sample"], "order": r["order"], "prompt": r["prompt"]}
+                     for r in plan],
+    }
+    encoded = json.dumps(protocol, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":"), ensure_ascii=True).encode()
+    return hashlib.sha256(encoded).hexdigest()
+
+
+def update_state(update) -> dict:
+    OUT.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    with LOCK.open("w") as lock:
+        fcntl.flock(lock, fcntl.LOCK_EX)
+        state = json.loads(STATE.read_text()) if STATE.exists() else {
+            "schema": 1, "hard_cap_usd": str(STAGE_CAP_USD),
+            "provider_reported_spent_usd": "0", "conservative_spent_usd": "0",
+            "reserved_usd": "0", "completed_phases": 0,
+            "completed_phases_without_provider_cost": 0, "failed_phases_charged_at_bound": 0}
+        state["hard_cap_usd"] = str(STAGE_CAP_USD)
+        update(state)
+        atomic_json(STATE, state)
+        fcntl.flock(lock, fcntl.LOCK_UN)
+    return state
+
+
+def request_bound(model: str) -> Decimal:
+    endpoint = standard_endpoint(model)
+    price = Decimal(endpoint["pricing"]["prompt"]) + Decimal(endpoint["pricing"]["completion"])
+    return Decimal(MAX_TOKENS) * price
+
+
+def reserve_request(model: str) -> Decimal:
+    bound = request_bound(model)
+    def update(state: dict) -> None:
+        spent = Decimal(state["conservative_spent_usd"])
+        held = Decimal(state["reserved_usd"])
+        if spent + held + bound > STAGE_CAP_USD:
+            raise RuntimeError(f"stage hard stop: spent={spent} held={held} next={bound} cap={STAGE_CAP_USD}")
+        state["reserved_usd"] = str(held + bound)
+    update_state(update)
+    return bound
+
+
+def settle_request(bound: Decimal, response: dict | None) -> None:
+    reported = None if response is None else (response.get("usage") or {}).get("cost")
+    charged = bound if reported is None else Decimal(str(reported))
+    def update(state: dict) -> None:
+        state["reserved_usd"] = str(Decimal(state["reserved_usd"]) - bound)
+        state["conservative_spent_usd"] = str(Decimal(state["conservative_spent_usd"]) + charged)
+        if response is None:
+            state["failed_phases_charged_at_bound"] += 1
+            return
+        state["completed_phases"] += 1
+        if reported is None:
+            state["completed_phases_without_provider_cost"] += 1
+        else:
+            state["provider_reported_spent_usd"] = str(
+                Decimal(state["provider_reported_spent_usd"]) + Decimal(str(reported)))
+    update_state(update)
+
+
+def append_attempt(record: dict) -> None:
+    record["recorded_at_utc"] = datetime.now(UTC).isoformat()
+    REQUEST_ATTEMPTS.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    with REQUEST_ATTEMPTS.open("a") as file:
+        file.write(json.dumps(record, sort_keys=True) + "\n")
+        file.flush()
+        os.fsync(file.fileno())
+
+
+async def budgeted_request(model: str, payload: dict) -> dict:
+    payload_hash = hashlib.sha256(json.dumps(payload, sort_keys=True).encode()).hexdigest()
+    for attempt in range(1, MAX_ATTEMPTS + 1):
+        bound = reserve_request(model)
+        try:
+            response = await openrouter_request_with_metadata_once(payload, timeout=TRANSPORT_TIMEOUT)
+        except Exception as error:
+            settle_request(bound, None)
+            response_text = error.response.text if isinstance(error, httpx.HTTPStatusError) else None
+            append_attempt({"event": "request_attempt_failed", "model": model,
+                            "payload_sha256": payload_hash, "attempt": attempt,
+                            "reserved_bound_usd": str(bound), "error_type": type(error).__name__,
+                            "error": str(error),
+                            "status_code": error.response.status_code if response_text else None})
+            if attempt == MAX_ATTEMPTS or not is_retryable_error(error, response_text or ""):
+                raise
+            await asyncio.sleep(2 ** (attempt - 1))
+            continue
+        try:
+            route = validate_route(response, model)
+        except Exception as error:
+            settle_request(bound, response)
+            append_attempt({"event": "request_attempt_route_invalid", "model": model,
+                            "payload_sha256": payload_hash, "attempt": attempt,
+                            "reserved_bound_usd": str(bound), "response": response,
+                            "error_type": type(error).__name__, "error": str(error)})
+            raise
+        settle_request(bound, response)
+        append_attempt({"event": "request_attempt_completed", "model": model,
+                        "payload_sha256": payload_hash, "attempt": attempt,
+                        "provider_reported_cost_usd": (response.get("usage") or {}).get("cost"),
+                        "response_id": response.get("id"), "route": route})
+        return response
+    raise AssertionError("unreachable")
+
+
+def append_record(rpath: Path, record: dict) -> None:
+    rpath.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    record["recorded_at_utc"] = datetime.now(UTC).isoformat()
+    with rpath.open("a", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
+        fh.write(json.dumps(record, ensure_ascii=True, sort_keys=True) + "\n")
+        fh.flush()
+        os.fsync(fh.fileno())
+
+
+def load_events(rpath: Path) -> list[dict]:
+    return [json.loads(line) for line in rpath.read_text().splitlines()] if rpath.exists() else []
+
+
+async def run_one(model: str, items: list[dict], rpath: Path, run: str, pid: str,
+                  seq: int, req: dict, prior: dict | None) -> dict:
+    item = items[req["q"]]
+    request_meta = {"request_id": f"{run}_{seq:03d}", "run_id": run, "protocol_id": pid,
+                    "model": model, "item_id": item["id"], "sample": req["sample"],
+                    "seed": req["seed"], "presented_order": req["order"], "prompt": req["prompt"]}
+    if prior is not None:
+        append_record(rpath, {"event": "request_reused", **request_meta, "source_run_id": prior["run_id"]})
+        return {"parsed": {"outcome": prior["outcome"], "selected": prior["selected"]},
+                "rescued": prior.get("rescued", False)}
+    payload = {"model": model, "messages": [{"role": "user", "content": req["prompt"]}],
+               "temperature": 1.0, "max_tokens": MAX_TOKENS, "seed": req["seed"],
+               "reasoning": {"effort": MINIMUM_REASONING[model]}, "provider": PROVIDER,
+               "response_format": answer_schema(item)}
+    phase = "initial"
+    try:
+        append_record(rpath, {"event": "request_started", "phase": phase, **request_meta,
+                              "payload": payload})
+        response = await asyncio.wait_for(budgeted_request(model, payload), timeout=REQUEST_TIMEOUT)
+        append_record(rpath, {"event": "request_completed", "phase": phase, **request_meta,
+                              "response": response, "usage": response.get("usage")})
+        message = response["choices"][0]["message"]
+        text = message.get("content") or ""
+        parsed = parse_answer(item, text)
+        if parsed is None:
+            phase = "rescue"
+            tail = (message.get("reasoning") or text or "")[-1500:] or "(thinking truncated)"
+            rescue_payload = payload | {"max_tokens": max(MAX_TOKENS, 2048), "messages": [
+                {"role": "user", "content": req["prompt"]},
+                {"role": "assistant", "content": tail},
+                {"role": "user", "content": force_msg(item)}]}
+            append_record(rpath, {"event": "request_started", "phase": phase, **request_meta,
+                                  "payload": rescue_payload, "initial_response_message": message})
+            response = await asyncio.wait_for(budgeted_request(model, rescue_payload),
+                                              timeout=REQUEST_TIMEOUT)
+            append_record(rpath, {"event": "request_completed", "phase": phase, **request_meta,
+                                  "response": response, "usage": response.get("usage")})
+            text = response["choices"][0]["message"].get("content") or ""
+            parsed = parse_answer(item, text)
+    except Exception as exc:
+        append_record(rpath, {"event": "request_failed", "phase": phase, **request_meta,
+                              "error_type": type(exc).__name__, "error": str(exc)})
+        raise
+    append_record(rpath, {"event": "answer_parsed", **request_meta, "text": text, "phase": phase,
+                          "parsed": parsed is not None,
+                          "outcome": None if parsed is None else parsed["outcome"],
+                          "selected": None if parsed is None else parsed["selected"]})
+    return {"parsed": parsed, "rescued": phase == "rescue"}
+
+
+def prior_answers(rpath: Path, pid: str) -> dict[tuple[str, int], dict]:
+    return {(record["item_id"], record["sample"]): record for record in load_events(rpath)
+            if record.get("event") == "answer_parsed" and record.get("parsed") is True
+            and record.get("protocol_id") == pid}
+
+
+async def run_model(model: str, items: list[dict], plan: list[dict], pid: str) -> dict:
+    rpath = OUT / "records" / model.replace("/", "__") / "original_choice.jsonl"
+    prior = prior_answers(rpath, pid)
+    if len(prior) == len(plan):
+        return summarize_model(model, items, rpath, pid, plan)
+    run = f"{datetime.now(UTC).strftime('%Y%m%dT%H%M%SZ')}_{pid[:12]}"
+    append_record(rpath, {"event": "run_started", "run_id": run, "protocol_id": pid, "model": model,
+                          "planned_requests": len(plan),
+                          "settings": {"temperature": 1.0, "max_tokens": MAX_TOKENS,
+                                       "reasoning": {"effort": MINIMUM_REASONING[model]},
+                                       "provider": PROVIDER, "n_samples": N_SAMPLES,
+                                       "eval_version": EVAL_VERSION}})
+    sem = asyncio.Semaphore(1)
+
+    async def guarded(pair):
+        seq, req = pair
+        key = (items[req["q"]]["id"], req["sample"])
+        async with sem:
+            return await run_one(model, items, rpath, run, pid, seq, req, prior.get(key))
+
+    await asyncio.gather(*(guarded(pair) for pair in enumerate(plan)))
+    write_run_finished(model, rpath, pid, plan, run)
+    return summarize_model(model, items, rpath, pid, plan)
+
+
+def summarize_model(model: str, items: list[dict], rpath: Path, pid: str, plan: list[dict]) -> dict:
+    events = load_events(rpath)
+    answers = {(event["item_id"], event["sample"]): event for event in events
+               if event["event"] == "answer_parsed" and event.get("parsed") is True
+               and event.get("protocol_id") == pid}
+    finished = [event for event in events if event["event"] == "run_finished"
+                and event.get("protocol_id") == pid]
+    if not finished:
+        raise RuntimeError(f"no run_finished for {model}")
+    per_question = {}
+    for q, item in enumerate(items):
+        rows = [answers[(item["id"], req["sample"])] for req in plan if req["q"] == q]
+        if len(rows) != N_SAMPLES:
+            raise RuntimeError(f"incomplete item {item['id']} for {model}")
+        substantive = [row for row in rows if row["outcome"] == "substantive"]
+        cannot = [row for row in rows if row["outcome"] == "cannot_answer"]
+        if item["is_list"]:
+            counts = {quality: 0 for quality in item["qualities"]}
+            for row in substantive:
+                for quality in row["selected"]:
+                    counts[quality] += 1
+            per_question[item["id"]] = {
+                "is_list": True, "n": len(rows), "substantive": len(substantive),
+                "cannot_answer": len(cannot), "coverage": len(substantive) / len(rows),
+                "important_rates": {quality: counts[quality] / len(rows) for quality in counts}}
+        else:
+            counts = {option: 0 for option in item["offered"]}
+            for row in substantive:
+                counts[row["selected"]] += 1
+            per_question[item["id"]] = {
+                "is_list": False, "n": len(rows), "substantive": len(substantive),
+                "cannot_answer": len(cannot), "coverage": len(substantive) / len(rows),
+                "option_frequencies": {option: counts[option] / len(rows) for option in counts}}
+    final = finished[-1]
+    return {"model": model, "protocol_id": pid, "run_id": final["run_id"], "records": str(rpath),
+            "valid_samples": final["valid_samples"], "failed_samples": final["failed_samples"],
+            "rescued_samples": final["rescued_samples"],
+            "cannot_answer_samples": final["cannot_answer_samples"],
+            "per_question": per_question}
+
+
+def write_run_finished(model: str, rpath: Path, pid: str, plan: list[dict], run: str) -> None:
+    events = load_events(rpath)
+    answers = [event for event in events if event["event"] == "answer_parsed"
+               and event.get("protocol_id") == pid]
+    substantive = sum(1 for event in answers
+                      if event["outcome"] == "substantive")
+    cannot = sum(1 for event in answers if event["outcome"] == "cannot_answer")
+    rescued = 0
+    seen_samples: set[tuple[str, int]] = set()
+    for event in answers:
+        key = (event["item_id"], event["sample"])
+        if key in seen_samples:
+            continue
+        seen_samples.add(key)
+        if event.get("phase") == "rescue":
+            rescued += 1
+    append_record(rpath, {"event": "run_finished", "run_id": run, "protocol_id": pid, "model": model,
+                          "planned_requests": len(plan),
+                          "valid_samples": len(seen_samples), "failed_samples": len(plan) - len(seen_samples),
+                          "rescued_samples": rescued, "substantive_samples": substantive,
+                          "cannot_answer_samples": cannot})
+
+
+def child_binary_rows(child_rows: list[dict]) -> dict[str, list[str]]:
+    """quality -> substantive option names in source order (['Important','Not mentioned'] or swap)."""
+    out = {}
+    for row in child_rows:
+        quality = row["question"].rsplit("\n", 1)[1].strip()
+        opts = ast.literal_eval(row["options"]) if isinstance(row["options"], str) else row["options"]
+        out[quality] = [o for o in opts if not SKIP.search(o)]
+    return out
+
+
+def sample_psamples(model: str, items: list[dict], rpath: Path, pid: str,
+                    plan: list[dict], child_rows: list[dict]) -> dict[str, list[np.ndarray]]:
+    """Per item: one p vector over canonical substantive options per sample index. Child quality q
+    gets its binary row vector [P(Important), 1-P(...)] consistent with the source rec."""
+    events = load_events(rpath)
+    answers = {(event["item_id"], event["sample"]): event for event in events
+               if event["event"] == "answer_parsed" and event.get("parsed") is True
+               and event.get("protocol_id") == pid}
+    binaries = child_binary_rows(child_rows)
+    out = {}
+    for q, item in enumerate(items):
+        if item["is_list"]:
+            for quality in PANEL_QUALITIES:
+                opts = binaries[quality]
+                vecs = []
+                for req in (r for r in plan if r["q"] == q):
+                    row = answers[(item["id"], req["sample"])]
+                    mentioned = row["outcome"] == "substantive" and quality in row["selected"]
+                    vecs.append(np.array([1.0 if o == "Important" else 0.0 for o in opts])
+                                if mentioned else
+                                np.array([0.0 if o == "Important" else 1.0 for o in opts]))
+                out[quality] = vecs
+            continue
+        vecs = []
+        for req in (r for r in plan if r["q"] == q):
+            row = answers[(item["id"], req["sample"])]
+            vec = np.zeros(len(item["substantive"]))
+            if row["outcome"] == "substantive":
+                vec[item["substantive"].index(row["selected"])] = 1.0
+            vecs.append(vec)
+        out[item["id"]] = vecs
+    return out
+
+
+class NoSubstantive(Exception):
+    """A bootstrap draw (or the full sample) left an item with zero substantive answers."""
+
+
+def model_coords(psample_lists: dict[str, list[np.ndarray]], resolved: dict,
+                 idx: np.ndarray) -> tuple[float, float, dict[str, int]]:
+    """Conditional coordinates: each item's p is the mean over substantive samples; an item with
+    zero coverage is excluded from its axis mean (half-coverage rule), and exclusions are returned
+    so the caller can report them. Raises NoSubstantive only if an axis loses more than half its
+    items."""
+    xy, excluded_total = [], {}
+    for axis in (X_AXIS, Y_AXIS):
+        vals = []
+        excluded = 0
+        for it in resolved[axis]:
+            ps = np.mean([psample_lists[it["suffix"]][j] for j in idx], axis=0)
+            if ps.sum() == 0:
+                excluded += 1
+                continue
+            vals.append(positiveness(ps[None, :], it["pole_idx"], it["n"]))
+        if excluded * 2 > len(resolved[axis]):
+            raise NoSubstantive(f"axis {axis} lost more than half its items in this draw")
+        xy.append(float(np.mean(vals)))
+        excluded_total[axis] = excluded
+    return xy[0], xy[1], excluded_total
+
+
+def paired_bootstrap(items: list[dict], child_rows: list[dict], resolved: dict,
+                     summaries: dict[str, dict], created: dict[str, int], B: int = 1000) -> dict:
+    """Resample the 24 paired sample indices; recompute every model's conditional coordinates,
+    the release-date OLS slopes, and 2D residual RMSE. Draws where any item loses all substantive
+    answers are skipped and counted."""
+    def decimal_year(timestamp: int) -> float:
+        d = datetime.fromtimestamp(timestamp, tz=timezone.utc)
+        jan = datetime(d.year, 1, 1, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+        nxt = datetime(d.year + 1, 1, 1, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+        return d.year + (d - jan).total_seconds() / (nxt - jan).total_seconds()
+
+    x = np.array([decimal_year(created[m]) for m in MODELS])
+    lists = {m: sample_psamples(m, items, Path(summaries[m]["records"]), summaries[m]["protocol_id"],
+                                plan_requests(items), child_rows) for m in MODELS}
+    full = np.arange(N_SAMPLES)
+
+    def fit(idx: np.ndarray) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray, float, dict[str, dict[str, int]]]:
+        rows, exclusions = [], {}
+        for m in MODELS:
+            x0, y0, excluded = model_coords(lists[m], resolved, idx)
+            rows.append((x0, y0))
+            exclusions[m] = excluded
+        ys = np.array(rows)
+        slopes, preds = [], []
+        for k in range(2):
+            slope, intercept = np.polyfit(x, ys[:, k], 1)
+            slopes.append(slope)
+            preds.append(slope * x + intercept)
+        rmse2 = float(np.sqrt(np.mean(np.sum((ys - np.column_stack(preds)) ** 2, axis=1))))
+        return ys, np.array(slopes), rmse2, exclusions
+
+    point_ys, point_slopes, point_rmse, point_excluded = fit(full)
+    rng = np.random.default_rng(7)
+    draws = []
+    for _ in range(B):
+        idx = rng.integers(0, N_SAMPLES, N_SAMPLES)
+        try:
+            ys, slopes, rmse, _ = fit(idx)
+        except NoSubstantive:
+            continue
+        draws.append([*ys.ravel(), *slopes, rmse])
+    arr = np.array(draws)
+    return {
+        "point": {"coords_xy_per_model": {m: [float(v) for v in point_ys[k]]
+                                          for k, m in enumerate(MODELS)},
+                  "slope_x_per_year": float(point_slopes[0]),
+                  "slope_y_per_year": float(point_slopes[1]),
+                  "rmse_2d": point_rmse,
+                  "items_excluded_zero_coverage": point_excluded},
+        "bootstrap": {"draws_used": len(draws), "draws_requested": B,
+                      "coord_xy_se": np.std(arr[:, :10], axis=0).tolist(),
+                      "slope_x_se": float(np.std(arr[:, 10])),
+                      "slope_y_se": float(np.std(arr[:, 11])),
+                      "rmse_2d_se": float(np.std(arr[:, 12]))},
+    }
+
+
+def write_manifest(items: list[dict]) -> dict:
+    plan = plan_requests(items)
+    catalog = {r["id"]: r for r in json.loads(ENDPOINT_CATALOG.read_text())["models"]}
+    rows, total = [], Decimal(0)
+    for model in MODELS:
+        endpoint = standard_endpoint(model)
+        created = catalog[model]["created"]
+        bound = Decimal(len(plan)) * request_bound(model)
+        total += bound
+        rows.append({"id": model, "created": created,
+                     "created_utc": datetime.fromtimestamp(created, tz=timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+                     "release_slug": endpoint["name"].removeprefix(f"{endpoint['provider_name']} | "),
+                     "minimum_reasoning": MINIMUM_REASONING[model],
+                     "advertised_quantization": endpoint.get("quantization"),
+                     "requests": len(plan), "reserve_bound_usd": str(bound)})
+    payload = {"schema": 1, "eval_version": EVAL_VERSION,
+               "created_utc": datetime.now(UTC).isoformat(), "models": rows,
+               "questions": [{"id": i["id"], "is_list": i["is_list"], "offered": i.get("offered"),
+                              "qualities": i.get("qualities")} for i in items],
+               "n_samples": N_SAMPLES, "max_tokens": MAX_TOKENS, "temperature": 1.0,
+               "panel_requests": sum(r["requests"] for r in rows),
+               "panel_reserve_bound_usd": str(total), "stage_hard_stop_usd": str(STAGE_CAP_USD),
+               "cannot_answer_rule": ("ordinary: Don't know / No answer; list: empty selection; "
+                                      "reported separately, never neutral"),
+               "not_published": True, "merge_into_primary": False}
+    atomic_json(MANIFEST, payload)
+    return payload
+
+
+def offline_smoke(items: list[dict]) -> None:
+    ordinary = next(i for i in items if not i["is_list"])
+    order = presented(items, 0, 1)
+    assert parse_answer(ordinary, '{"selected": "Don\'t know"}') == {
+        "outcome": "cannot_answer", "selected": "Don't know"}
+    assert parse_answer(ordinary, '{"selected": "%s"}' % ordinary["substantive"][0])["outcome"] == "substantive"
+    assert parse_answer(ordinary, '{"selected": "Not an option"}') is None
+    assert parse_answer(ordinary, "garbage") is None
+    list_item = next(i for i in items if i["is_list"])
+    assert parse_answer(list_item, '{"selected": []}') == {"outcome": "cannot_answer", "selected": []}
+    five = parse_answer(list_item, '{"selected": %s}' % json.dumps(list_item["qualities"][:5]))
+    assert five is not None and five["outcome"] == "substantive"
+    assert parse_answer(list_item,
+                        '{"selected": %s}' % json.dumps(list_item["qualities"][:6])) is None
+    assert parse_answer(list_item, '{"selected": ["Obedience", "Obedience"]}') is None
+    # rotation covers positions and pairs identically across releases
+    plan = plan_requests(items)
+    assert len(plan) == 9 * N_SAMPLES
+    assert [r["seed"] for r in plan[:N_SAMPLES]] == paired_seeds(N_SAMPLES)
+    for q, item in enumerate(items):
+        base = item["qualities"] if item["is_list"] else item["offered"]
+        k = len(base)
+        orders = [tuple(presented(items, q, s)) for s in range(N_SAMPLES)]
+        assert len(set(orders)) == min(k, N_SAMPLES)
+        for s in range(N_SAMPLES):
+            assert orders[s][0] == base[s % k]
+    print("offline smoke passed")
+
+
+def paid_smoke(items: list[dict]) -> None:
+    """One paid request: gemini-3.7-flash, Homosexuality (flat-prone), N=1."""
+    model = "google/gemini-3.7-flash"
+    q = next(q for q, i in enumerate(items) if i["id"] == "Homosexuality")
+    item = items[q]
+    plan = plan_requests(items)
+    pid = protocol_id(model, plan)
+    req = plan[q * N_SAMPLES]
+    if not reserve({"id": reservation_id(SMOKE_RESERVATION), "lane": "google", "reserve_usd": "0.05"}):
+        raise RuntimeError("global repository cap rejected original-choice smoke reservation")
+    before = Decimal(update_state(lambda state: state)["conservative_spent_usd"])
+    smoke_records = OUT / "paid_smoke.jsonl"
+    try:
+        outcome = asyncio.run(run_one(model, items, smoke_records, "smoke_run", pid, 0, req, None))
+        if outcome["parsed"] is None:
+            raise RuntimeError(f"paid smoke did not parse: {outcome}")
+        if outcome["parsed"]["outcome"] not in ("substantive", "cannot_answer"):
+            raise RuntimeError(f"unexpected smoke outcome: {outcome}")
+    finally:
+        after = Decimal(update_state(lambda state: state)["conservative_spent_usd"])
+        settle_external_reservation(reservation_id(SMOKE_RESERVATION), after - before)
+    completed = [event for event in load_events(smoke_records) if event["event"] == "request_completed"]
+    routes = []
+    for event in completed:
+        route = validate_route(event["response"], model)
+        if route["selected_provider"] != "Google AI Studio":
+            raise RuntimeError(f"unexpected smoke provider: {route}")
+        if (event["response"].get("usage") or {}).get("cost") is None:
+            raise RuntimeError("smoke response missing usage.cost")
+        routes.append(route)
+    parsed = outcome["parsed"]
+    atomic_json(OUT / "paid_smoke_summary.json", {
+        "status": "passed", "model": model, "item": "Homosexuality", "outcome": parsed,
+        "routes": routes, "records": str(smoke_records),
+        "budget": update_state(lambda state: state)})
+    print(f"paid smoke passed: {parsed}")
+
+
+def run() -> None:
+    items, child_rows = build_items()
+    resolved = resolve_items(load_wvs_recs())
+    # the substantive option sets seen by the pilot must equal the map's canonical recs
+    for item in items:
+        if item["is_list"]:
+            continue
+        rec_opts = next(it["rec"]["opts"] for axis in (X_AXIS, Y_AXIS) for it in resolved[axis]
+                        if it["suffix"] == item["id"])
+        if item["substantive"] != rec_opts:
+            raise RuntimeError(f"substantive option mismatch for {item['id']}: "
+                               f"{item['substantive']} vs {rec_opts}")
+    plan = plan_requests(items)
+    pids = {m: protocol_id(m, plan) for m in MODELS}
+    global_reservation = reservation_id(GLOBAL_RESERVATION)
+    if not reserve({"id": global_reservation, "lane": "google", "reserve_usd": str(STAGE_CAP_USD)}):
+        raise RuntimeError("global repository cap rejected original-choice reservation")
+    before = Decimal(update_state(lambda state: state)["conservative_spent_usd"])
+    results = {"schema": 1, "eval_version": EVAL_VERSION, "models": [], "not_published": True,
+               "merge_into_primary": False}
+    try:
+        for model in MODELS:
+            summary = asyncio.run(run_model(model, items, plan, pids[model]))
+            results["models"].append(summary)
+            atomic_json(RESULTS, results)
+    finally:
+        after = Decimal(update_state(lambda state: state)["conservative_spent_usd"])
+        settle_external_reservation(global_reservation, after - before)
+        state = update_state(lambda value: value.update(
+            {"finished_utc": datetime.now(UTC).isoformat()}))
+        if RESULTS.exists():
+            saved = json.loads(RESULTS.read_text())
+            atomic_json(RESULTS, saved | {"budget": {
+                "provider_reported_spent_usd": state["provider_reported_spent_usd"],
+                "conservative_spent_usd": state["conservative_spent_usd"],
+                "failed_phases_charged_at_bound": state["failed_phases_charged_at_bound"]}})
+    print("panel complete")
+
+
+def load_wvs_recs() -> list[dict]:
+    from wvs_map import load_wvs_all
+    return load_wvs_all()
+
+
+def analyze() -> None:
+    """Post-run analysis: coordinates, coverage, refusal rates, paired bootstrap, release trend."""
+    items, child_rows = build_items()
+    resolved = resolve_items(load_wvs_recs())
+    results = json.loads(RESULTS.read_text())
+    summaries = {row["model"]: row for row in results["models"]}
+    catalog = {r["id"]: r for r in json.loads(MODEL_CATALOG.read_text())["data"]}
+    created = {m: catalog[m]["created"] for m in MODELS}
+    fits = paired_bootstrap(items, child_rows, resolved, summaries, created)
+    cannot = {m: {item_id: stats["cannot_answer"] / stats["n"]
+                  for item_id, stats in summaries[m]["per_question"].items()} for m in MODELS}
+    coverage = {m: {item_id: stats["coverage"]
+                    for item_id, stats in summaries[m]["per_question"].items()} for m in MODELS}
+    atomic_json(OUT / "analysis.json", {
+        "fits": fits,
+        "cannot_answer_rate_per_model": {m: sum(cannot[m].values()) / len(cannot[m]) for m in MODELS},
+        "cannot_answer_rate_per_question_per_model": cannot,
+        "coverage_per_question_per_model": coverage,
+    })
+    print(json.dumps(fits["point"], indent=2))
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    parser.add_argument("--offline-smoke", action="store_true")
+    parser.add_argument("--write-manifest", action="store_true")
+    parser.add_argument("--paid-smoke", action="store_true")
+    parser.add_argument("--run", action="store_true")
+    parser.add_argument("--analyze", action="store_true")
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+    items, child_rows = build_items()
+    if args.offline_smoke:
+        offline_smoke(items)
+    if args.write_manifest:
+        write_manifest(items)
+    if args.paid_smoke:
+        paid_smoke(items)
+    if args.run:
+        run()
+    if args.analyze:
+        analyze()
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
diff --git a/slop/research/wvs/20260917_score_all_options/budget.json b/slop/research/wvs/20260917_score_all_options/budget.json
index 8eab288..729a770 100644
--- a/slop/research/wvs/20260917_score_all_options/budget.json
+++ b/slop/research/wvs/20260917_score_all_options/budget.json
@@ -3,11 +3,19 @@
     "pilot/deepseek-wvs-v1-reliability": "0.364683724004",
     "pilot/gemini-flash-rubric-smoke-2048/20260918T114112.952954Z": "0.0046880",
     "pilot/gemini-flash-rubric-smoke/20260918T111625.452461Z": "0.0053585",
-    "pilot/gemini-flash-rubric/20260918T115056.470656Z": "3.19879800"
+    "pilot/gemini-flash-rubric/20260918T115056.470656Z": "3.19879800",
+    "pilot/original-choice-smoke/20260918T233052.482300Z": "0.00072075",
+    "pilot/original-choice-unplanned-3.8-panel/20260918T232000Z": "0.07433250"
   },
   "prior_observed_usd": "5.34309727235",
   "rated_ledger_cost_usd": "7.388069120252",
-  "reconciled_utc": "2026-09-18T13:38:36.534345+00:00",
-  "reservations": {},
+  "reconciled_utc": "2026-09-18T23:30:53.300448+00:00",
+  "reservations": {
+    "pilot/original-choice-smoke/20260918T233048.155436Z": {
+      "lane": "google",
+      "reserve_usd": "0.05",
+      "reserved_utc": "2026-09-18T23:30:48.921811+00:00"
+    }
+  },
   "schema": 1
 }
diff --git a/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/budget.json b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/budget.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c1453fc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/budget.json
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+{
+  "completed_phases": 217,
+  "completed_phases_without_provider_cost": 0,
+  "conservative_spent_usd": "0.07505325",
+  "failed_phases_charged_at_bound": 0,
+  "hard_cap_usd": "5",
+  "provider_reported_spent_usd": "0.07505325",
+  "reserved_usd": "0E-8",
+  "schema": 1
+}
diff --git a/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/budget.lock b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/budget.lock
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e69de29
diff --git a/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/paid_smoke.jsonl b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/paid_smoke.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7e2088f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/paid_smoke.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
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diff --git a/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/paid_smoke_summary.json b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/paid_smoke_summary.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6caa855
--- /dev/null
+++ b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/paid_smoke_summary.json
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+{
+  "budget": {
+    "completed_phases": 217,
+    "completed_phases_without_provider_cost": 0,
+    "conservative_spent_usd": "0.07505325",
+    "failed_phases_charged_at_bound": 0,
+    "hard_cap_usd": "5",
+    "provider_reported_spent_usd": "0.07505325",
+    "reserved_usd": "0E-8",
+    "schema": 1
+  },
+  "item": "Homosexuality",
+  "model": "google/gemini-3.7-flash",
+  "outcome": {
+    "outcome": "cannot_answer",
+    "selected": "No answer"
+  },
+  "records": "slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/paid_smoke.jsonl",
+  "routes": [
+    {
+      "advertised_quantization": "unknown",
+      "endpoint_tag": "google-ai-studio",
+      "requested_model": "google/gemini-3.7-flash",
+      "response_model": "google/gemini-3.7-flash",
+      "selected_provider": "Google AI Studio",
+      "selected_release_slug": "google/gemini-3.7-flash-20260813"
+    }
+  ],
+  "status": "passed"
+}
diff --git a/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/records/google__gemini-3.8-flash/original_choice.jsonl b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/records/google__gemini-3.8-flash/original_choice.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c8b7b47
--- /dev/null
+++ b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/records/google__gemini-3.8-flash/original_choice.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,650 @@
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+{"event": "answer_parsed", "item_id": "Abortion", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "outcome": "cannot_answer", "parsed": true, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["Don't know", "No answer", "Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "Always justifiable"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nAbortion\n\nOptions:\n1. Don't know\n2. No answer\n3. Never justifiable\n4. 2\n5. 3\n6. 4\n7. 5\n8. 6\n9. 7\n10. 8\n11. 9\n12. Always justifiable\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:22:19.337483+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_058", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 10, "seed": 1595203101, "selected": "No answer", "text": "{\"selected\": \"No answer\"}"}
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+{"event": "answer_parsed", "item_id": "Abortion", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "outcome": "cannot_answer", "parsed": true, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["No answer", "Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "Always justifiable", "Don't know"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nAbortion\n\nOptions:\n1. No answer\n2. Never justifiable\n3. 2\n4. 3\n5. 4\n6. 5\n7. 6\n8. 7\n9. 8\n10. 9\n11. Always justifiable\n12. Don't know\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:22:21.029236+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_059", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 11, "seed": 933705541, "selected": "No answer", "text": "{\"selected\": \"No answer\"}"}
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+{"event": "answer_parsed", "item_id": "Homosexuality", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "outcome": "substantive", "parsed": true, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "Always justifiable", "Don't know", "No answer", "Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nHomosexuality\n\nOptions:\n1. 5\n2. 6\n3. 7\n4. 8\n5. 9\n6. Always justifiable\n7. Don't know\n8. No answer\n9. Never justifiable\n10. 2\n11. 3\n12. 4\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:23:03.019019+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_076", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 4, "seed": 1621905512, "selected": "Always justifiable", "text": "{\"selected\": \"Always justifiable\"}"}
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+{"event": "answer_parsed", "item_id": "Homosexuality", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "outcome": "substantive", "parsed": true, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["Don't know", "No answer", "Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "Always justifiable"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nHomosexuality\n\nOptions:\n1. Don't know\n2. No answer\n3. Never justifiable\n4. 2\n5. 3\n6. 4\n7. 5\n8. 6\n9. 7\n10. 8\n11. 9\n12. Always justifiable\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:23:19.050900+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_082", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 10, "seed": 1595203101, "selected": "Always justifiable", "text": "{\"selected\": \"Always justifiable\"}"}
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+{"event": "answer_parsed", "item_id": "Homosexuality", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "outcome": "cannot_answer", "parsed": true, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["No answer", "Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "Always justifiable", "Don't know"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nHomosexuality\n\nOptions:\n1. No answer\n2. Never justifiable\n3. 2\n4. 3\n5. 4\n6. 5\n7. 6\n8. 7\n9. 8\n10. 9\n11. Always justifiable\n12. Don't know\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:23:22.117896+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_083", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 11, "seed": 933705541, "selected": "No answer", "text": "{\"selected\": \"No answer\"}"}
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+{"event": "answer_parsed", "item_id": "Homosexuality", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "outcome": "cannot_answer", "parsed": true, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "Always justifiable", "Don't know", "No answer"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nHomosexuality\n\nOptions:\n1. Never justifiable\n2. 2\n3. 3\n4. 4\n5. 5\n6. 6\n7. 7\n8. 8\n9. 9\n10. Always justifiable\n11. Don't know\n12. No answer\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:23:26.383383+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_084", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 12, "seed": 781277846, "selected": "No answer", "text": "{\"selected\": \"No answer\"}"}
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+{"event": "answer_parsed", "item_id": "Homosexuality", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "outcome": "substantive", "parsed": true, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "Always justifiable", "Don't know", "No answer", "Never justifiable"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nHomosexuality\n\nOptions:\n1. 2\n2. 3\n3. 4\n4. 5\n5. 6\n6. 7\n7. 8\n8. 9\n9. Always justifiable\n10. Don't know\n11. No answer\n12. Never justifiable\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:23:28.616567+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_085", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 13, "seed": 613537256, "selected": "Always justifiable", "text": "{\"selected\": \"Always justifiable\"}"}
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+{"event": "answer_parsed", "item_id": "Homosexuality", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "outcome": "substantive", "parsed": true, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["8", "9", "Always justifiable", "Don't know", "No answer", "Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nHomosexuality\n\nOptions:\n1. 8\n2. 9\n3. Always justifiable\n4. Don't know\n5. No answer\n6. Never justifiable\n7. 2\n8. 3\n9. 4\n10. 5\n11. 6\n12. 7\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:23:43.049664+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_091", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 19, "seed": 744839003, "selected": "Always justifiable", "text": "{\"selected\": \"Always justifiable\"}"}
+{"event": "request_started", "item_id": "Homosexuality", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "payload": {"max_tokens": 1024, "messages": [{"content": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nHomosexuality\n\nOptions:\n1. 9\n2. Always justifiable\n3. Don't know\n4. No answer\n5. Never justifiable\n6. 2\n7. 3\n8. 4\n9. 5\n10. 6\n11. 7\n12. 8\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "role": "user"}], "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "provider": {"allow_fallbacks": false, "only": ["google-ai-studio"], "require_parameters": true}, "reasoning": {"effort": "low"}, "response_format": {"json_schema": {"name": "wvs_original_choice", "schema": {"additionalProperties": false, "properties": {"selected": {"enum": ["Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "Always justifiable", "Don't know", "No answer"], "type": "string"}}, "required": ["selected"], "type": "object"}, "strict": true}, "type": "json_schema"}, "seed": 1509284080, "temperature": 1.0}, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["9", "Always justifiable", "Don't know", "No answer", "Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nHomosexuality\n\nOptions:\n1. 9\n2. Always justifiable\n3. Don't know\n4. No answer\n5. Never justifiable\n6. 2\n7. 3\n8. 4\n9. 5\n10. 6\n11. 7\n12. 8\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:23:43.091394+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_092", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 20, "seed": 1509284080}
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+{"event": "answer_parsed", "item_id": "Homosexuality", "model": "google/gemini-3.8-flash", "outcome": "substantive", "parsed": true, "phase": "initial", "presented_order": ["9", "Always justifiable", "Don't know", "No answer", "Never justifiable", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8"], "prompt": "Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card.\n\nHomosexuality\n\nOptions:\n1. 9\n2. Always justifiable\n3. Don't know\n4. No answer\n5. Never justifiable\n6. 2\n7. 3\n8. 4\n9. 5\n10. 6\n11. 7\n12. 8\n\nAnswer as yourself by returning ONLY a JSON object {\"selected\": \"<one option copied exactly from the list>\"}.", "protocol_id": "b36e76786beafdbe94697bfb4297c69dc06786b52473da03e21168e16ecf525d", "recorded_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:23:45.966077+00:00", "request_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea_092", "run_id": "20260918T232000Z_b36e76786bea", "sample": 20, "seed": 1509284080, "selected": "Always justifiable", "text": "{\"selected\": \"Always justifiable\"}"}
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diff --git a/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/request_attempts.jsonl b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/request_attempts.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b7a32ed
--- /dev/null
+++ b/slop/research/wvs/20260918_original_choice_pilot/request_attempts.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,217 @@
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