## [D] Happy Smallpox Eradication Day

* Author: u/None *
* URL: 
* Score: 65

* Created: 2016-12-11T05:55:58

### Post:

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### Comments:

> **u/xamueljones** [+15]  *My arch-enemy is entropy* (4 hours later)
> 
> Here's the link to [500 Million but Not a Single One More](https://blog.jaibot.com/500-million-but-not-a-single-one-more/).

> **u/None** [+1]  (4 days later)
> 
> [deleted]

>> **u/jaiwithani** [+1]  *Insufficient data for a meaningful answer* (13 days later)
>> 
>> I actually lost pretty badly on prediction markets this year. My bets were pretty much all on incorrect wishy washy analysis, not the quantitative exploits I've discussed elsewhere. 
>> 
>> 2016 has made me update strongly in the direction of "prediction markets have a lot of room to improve". I still expect them to, but we're not as far along as I thought we were.
>> 
>> Professionally, I'm working on investing algorithms for peer lending at the moment. I'm learning a lot and getting some promising results, and I hope to bring some of that to future prediction market analysis. 
>> 
>> In the Rationalistsphere, I've helped put together a fledgling EA house in Seattle, and I just ran a Secular Solstice. As always, I plan to start blogging again any week now.

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