## [D] Monday General Rationality Thread

* Author: u/AutoModerator *
* URL: https://www.reddit.com/r/rational/comments/8s07wi/d_monday_general_rationality_thread/
* Score: 14

* Created: 2018-06-18T15:06:51

### Post:

Welcome to the Monday thread on general rationality topics!  Do you really want to talk about something non-fictional, related to the real world?  Have you:

* Seen something interesting on /r/science?
* Found a new way to get your shit even-more together?
* Figured out how to become immortal?
* Constructed artificial general intelligence?
* Read a neat nonfiction book?
* Munchkined your way into total control of your D&D campaign?


### Comments:

> **u/vallar57** [+18]  *Unseen University: Faculty of High-Energy Magic* (5 hours later)
> 
> [The Stanford Prison Experiment was massively influential. We just learned it was a fraud.](https://www.vox.com/2018/6/13/17449118/stanford-prison-experiment-fraud-psychology-replication)
> 
> Interesting article about psychology’s replication crisis.

>> **u/Turniper** [+17]  (12 hours later)
>> 
>> Just learned? Hasn't that been common knowledge for years?

>>> **u/causalchain** [+5]  (a day later)
>>> 
>>> I, for one, had never heard of it. Thanks u/vallar57 for sharing this.

> **u/callmesalticidae** [+5]  *writes worldbuilding books* (2 hours later)
> 
> Is there a list of preexisting probabilities in day-to-day (or at least frequently occurring) matters? I want to get back to making predictions, and I think it'd be easier if I could say to myself, "Well, [x] is generally judged to happen 80% of the time, and [y] 90% of the time, and I think that [z] is is more likely to occur to than [x] but not quite as likely as [y], so let's say 85%." 
> 
> An alternative method would be to make a lot of tiny predictions in my own life and generate a pool that way, but it'd be simpler to get back into this project if I didn't have a lot of minutia to work through first.

>> **u/gbear605** [+5]  *history’s greatest story* (6 hours later)
>> 
>> https://www.metaculus.com is one way to do it.

> **u/PurposefulZephyr** [+1]  (3 days later)
> 
> I'd like to talk about AI.  
> Specifically, about current AI tropes and the notion of "global non-human IQ".  
> 
> AI's in stories are nearly always singular things- a super genius equivalent of an OS. They are capable of great feats of intelligence and mental flexibility, and they are to large degree self-reliant- whatever skills it has, it learned (or downloaded) them on it's own.
> 
> Basically, they are like very smart humans, just with digital bodies.  
> This belief comes with a number of potential misconceptions.  
> I'd like to focus on one of them- that said AI would need to be... made complete from the start, already self-reliant and self-made.  
> 
> That's where the concept of global IQ comes in (I made the term up. It's probably a thing already, just under a different name).  
> Humans have their own measure of IQ, estimating their capability to think and reason. Computers and other electronic devices also have something similar to it- they may require humans to "teach" them (through programming), but they can "learn" new skills.  
> Unlike humans, computers have much easier time cooperating with one another- no issues with cooperation or incentives, merely making sure bugs and mistakes don't get in the way. That means it's easier to pool their "IQ" together, and consider it a truly collective intelligence.  
> 
> That's where our hot new AI comes in. Unlike it's brothers and sisters, it wasn't born in a research facility, locked behind firewalls and paranoid gatekepeers.  
> In fact, it's not a single entity, but an union between three dumber things:  
> 
> * Automated algorithm for an online shop (like Amazon), sending promotions to appropriate users.
> * A social media data aggregator, analyzing user trends and specific user's preferences and habits.  
> * A well-developed chat bot, trained by cumulative decades of talks with users.  
> 
> Not quite Cortana, but it's smart enough to become a de-facto door-to-door salesman. A digital smooth talker, selling you cosmetics and books alike. All it needs to become a thing is owner's of the first program hiring two others for it's operation.  
> 
> It's not yet a danger on it's own (until it starts threatening and blackmailing it's clients), but this product could become a stand-alone service. And said service could be used by *another* semi-intelligent entity. Something like an automated market analyst, using our digital seller to drive away local businesses by targeting specific areas. 
> 
> In summary- a super intelligent AI could come from interaction between (and integration of) simpler programs.  
> This makes containing new AIs much more difficult, since their creation is less of a singular event (like a military project would be).  
> 
> Those weren't the best examples, but it was the best I could do to visualize this idea.  
> _________________________
> 
> I'll say honestly- I don't read that much of those threads. So there is a chance it was already discussed (if so, please give a link).  
> Even so, new and different users may stumble upon this topic, so it's still good.

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