6.1 KiB
The Last Temptation of Christ
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Author: u/erwgv3g34 *
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Score: 31
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Created: 2013-12-31T05:43:53
Post:
Comments:
u/BT_Uytya [+3] The Laundry (6 hours later)
Excellent story.
It's a bit hard to swallow, but it seems that if you are TDT agent, and (maybe, mistakenly) believe that you a person who is going to accomplish something very important, you should disregard any doubts and act on assumptions that you are sane.
u/None [+3] (6 hours later)
It's a bit hard to swallow, but it seems that if you are TDT agent, and (maybe, mistakenly) believe that you a person who is going to accomplish something very important, you should disregard any doubts and act on assumptions that you are sane.
I don't see how the old maxim to Believe in the you who believes in yourself actually applies here.
The basic reasoning problem here is to consider hypothesis P(Am Jesus | Evidence). Note that your belief that you're Jesus is not a priori evidence of psychosis, except insofar as psychotics are likely to believe they're Jesus Christ. P(Believe I'm Jesus | Psychotic) * P(Psychotic) = P(Psychotic | Believe I'm Jesus) * P(Believe I'm Jesus).
So actually, we want P(Psychotic | Believe I'm Jesus) / P(Believe in Jesus | Psychotic). If the former is 99,999/100,000, then what's the latter? What fraction of psychotics believe they're Jesus? We could thus calculate a low probability of being psychotic and have to evaluate the Jesus Hypothesis at the object level, consider P(I'm Jesus | Available Evidence), which would then involve considering the mountain and the Devil in favor, considering the quality of my knowledge of what constitutes being Jesus (the strongest argument available for my being Jesus is that I don't know his story because I'm still living it), and considering the medication as evidence against.
u/BT_Uytya [+4] The Laundry (7 hours later)
I'm not sure I understand what are you trying to show. My argument was more about expected utility: if you decide for all people who believe they are Jesus, including real Jesus, then you should continue saving mankind instead of taking medication.
(assuming that taking medication is harmful to real Jesus and that there is a non-negligible probability of Jesus existing. I don't believe in both of them, but willing to assume those for the sake of argument).
u/None [+1] (8 hours later)
I was trying to show how you would decide the questions of "Am I sane?" and "Am I Jesus?". I don't think TDT really comes into it, since it can be decided whether or not you actually are Jesus: you don't have to decide for a whole class of maybe-Jesus-guys, just yourself.
My argument was more about expected utility: if you decide for all people who believe they are Jesus, including real Jesus, then you should continue saving mankind instead of taking medication.
Problem being that 99.999% of the time, your actions as a psychotic maniac are actually harmful to others and don't save mankind at all.
u/FeepingCreature [+2] GCV Literally The Entire Culture (8 hours later)
you don't have to decide for a whole class of maybe-Jesus-guys, just yourself.
The point is that the rational decision theory of 100,000 insane guys and Jesus, given identical (deluded) inputs, must necessarily come to the same conclusion. That's what makes them a TDT set - the devil essentially acts as Omega in this story, equalizing available inputs.
(the strongest argument available for my being Jesus is that I don't know his story because I'm still living it)
Though that's a strong point. I wonder what the Devil's rebuttal would have been. Then again, is "not remembering" really the best evidence?
u/None [+3] (8 hours later)
Then again, is "not remembering" really the best evidence?
There's a difference between "not remembering" in the sense of having forgotten and "not remembering" in the sense of events still being in your subjective future. Forgettings still leave a causal "hole" in your other memories, a missing factor in events you can remember. Future events simply haven't had any causal influence on you yet.
Though that's a strong point. I wonder what the Devil's rebuttal would have been.
It would have been fun to see our Maybe!Jesus ask the Maybe!Devil, "Do you know how I will have handled this temptation?" The Devil, if we say he's our Omega figure, then has to maintain a very careful informational ambiguity, because we've put him on the spot of acting timelessly. If he doesn't act timelessly in this situation, he'll reveal whether we're Jesus or not.
u/None [+1] (8 hours later)
[deleted]
u/FeepingCreature [+1] GCV Literally The Entire Culture (8 hours later)
Why, are you having input equivalent to Jesus? That's a warning sign, if so. :)
u/None [+2] (8 hours later)
Not in the slightest. Unless, of course, Jesus had inputs equivalent to me and didn't get my life right because he was insane.
u/FeepingCreature [+3] GCV Literally The Entire Culture (8 hours later)
I think his point was "Proceed under the assumption that you're Jesus", because if you are, you can bring salvation to all mankind, but if you're just a psychiatric patient, pretty much the worst thing you can do is kill yourself. 1 death * 100,000 psychatric patients < salvation of all mankind; thus, the TDT set of {jesus, 100,000 insane people} acts as if it's Jesus. Assuming, of course, that salvation of mankind is on the table with a reasonably high p.
u/FeepingCreature [+1] GCV Literally The Entire Culture (8 hours later)
Of course, the real lesson is that if you start a religion based on faith and blind belief, instead of doubt and challenging your beliefs against reality, {you, 100,000 psychiatric patients} totally have it coming.