19 KiB
[RT][FF]Following the Phoenix: Chapter 22: The Battle of Hogwarts
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Author: u/Maxeonyx *
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URL: https://www.fanfiction.net/s/10636246/22/Following-the-Phoenix
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Score: 9
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Created: 2014-11-13T09:06:47
Post:
Comments:
u/MadScientist14159 [+10] WIP: Sodium Hypochlorite (Rational Bleach) Eventually. Maybe. (6 minutes later)
Can we please talk about how easily this could have backfired on Quirrel?
The soldiers kill Harry.
Quirrel: SHITSHITSHITSHITSHITSHITSH-
u/robryk [+6] (6 hours later)
Quirrel could have checked that Harry survived using a timeturner.
u/JosephLeee [+1] (4 hours later)
And then he has to take over himself, instead of having Harry do it.
u/gommm [+8] (an hour later)
I don't really understand how a mob could come to the forest this fast. The military could detect the wards but I don't see how a mob could have access to that information.
u/JackStargazer [+15] Primordial Apologist (2 hours later)
Yeah, and gun control in England is pretty much yes. To the point that most police officers do not carry sidearms.
I am not seeing how a group of 'skinheads' have that much heavy ordnance, and connection to sources of military information, and happened to just by chance be going by the forest where the students were. And just happen to kill two people very important to both of the main heroes.
Unless we assume Quirrel did it, but it's becoming a bit much at this point, that excuse.
I cannot see Quirrel doing all of this. For one, in canon he very clearly does not want the Muggles to use nuclear weapons ever, and the level of paranoia and fear at this point would almost necessitate it.
Also, as the top comment here indicates, this seems like a great way to accidentally get Harry killed.
Significantly more than 2 things had to go right for this plan, is what I'm saying.
u/gommm [+8] (7 hours later)
Yes, good point too about the gun control law. I've really enjoyed this fanfic but the more I think of it, the more I feel that this chapter needs some tweaking and editing to bring it to the level of the rest.
The mob/group of skinheads come out of nowhere and there's no explanation for them to be there or to have this amount of weapon. Even if Quirrel influenced them to come there, it seems unlikely he would have access to Muggle weapons to equip them. It's also very risky and seems out of character for him. Too many things could go wrong for this to be his plan.
u/JackStargazer [+14] Primordial Apologist (8 hours later)
On a related note, I think the Author is forgetting that this fic operates on Harry Potter time, in 1991.
In 1991, computer technology was significantly (on the order of several thousand times) less powerful than modern hardware.
So the computers involved are running on 20 megs of hot ram, and use 5 1/2 inch floppies for storage.
People do not carry ubiqutous cell-phone cameras, the average camcorder is shoulder mounted and records on a VHS tape.
No modern drone-carriers and instant facial recognition software.
No nation at that time had the ability to instantly check through satellite imaging to find a ~1 acre square in Scotland which showed up on a computer map as blank terrain but showed to human eyes as normal. I'm not even sure that the resolution and software is good enough to do that in under a week today.
In short, this whole chapter just torched my suspension of disbelief.
u/duffmancd [+5] (16 hours later)
As a small factoid supporting this, GPS wasn't fully operational (24 satellites in orbit) till 1993, and wasn't complete til 1995 (when they had the specified 3 spares). And even then the accuracy was significantly reduced for everyone but the US military till 2000 when they turned off the encryption.
Google, the company, didn't exist till 1997 and didn't introduce google maps till 2005, even if we let the military have a 10 year head start on digital maps/satellite images they're still 4 years too late.
The only way I can see this making sense is if Quirell is behind it and as others have pointed out it is a huge risk. If he is worried about nuclear war, mind controlling the military into missile attacks is probably not a good idea. Risk to Harry may be mitigated by time travel, full military control would likely take more than 6hrs.
u/heiligeEzel [+3] (a day later)
I can assure you, the author is entirely aware of the time period (even if she missed certain unfortunate details about the GPS program).
So the computers involved are running on 20 megs of hot ram, and use 5 1/2 inch floppies for storage.
You are assuming that the military uses the kind of average PC that's sold in a shop, which is quite an assumption. :P
No modern drone-carriers and instant facial recognition software.
The word "drone" was badly chosen, and obviously facial recognition isn't used here. This is just meant as a missile or somewhat like that.
People do not carry ubiqutous cell-phone cameras
There is no part assuming they do. I guess this refers to some tiny fraction of the billions of people on earth managing to videotape the events? Given the situation, I'd imagine that there would be plenty - my family certainly had a handheld camera at the time, and there were security cameras in shops.
I'm not even sure that the resolution and software is good enough to do that in under a week today.
Whyever not? Depending on the map format and exactly how "blank" looks to the computer, and assuming there exists a programmer experienced with running terrain scans on it, I'm fairly sure it wouldn't take much more than an hour to wite the C-code, even if it must be fast enough to work perfectly well on the computers at the time.
The question is, of course, how they knew what to look for in the first place, but I imagine the military has been aware of anomalies in their satellite data for a while - if there's mysterious places where the terrain doesn't look the same to the human eye as to the computer, they're probably going to notice that such places exist in Russia first, and either assume that someone tampered with the satellite data or that there is strange technology going on.
I do realize that many things, like GPS, were restricted to the US military at the time, but I made the assumption that they shared it with their allies in the cold war., especially the ones who held nukes and might be called upon in an instant to join them in an attack.
u/JackStargazer [+1] Primordial Apologist (2 days later)
GPS wasn't just restricted, it wasn't finished until 1993.
The military is not that far ahead of the commercial sphere. General wisdom is about 2-4 years ahead tops. That's still not good enough for the amount of computation this type of plan would require. GUIs were mostly greyscale.
But, don't take my word for it. Luckily, we have actual historical record! Because if you remember, there was a war on at the time. The Gulf War - Desert Storm.
A total of four imaging intelligence satellites were operational in orbit during the initial phases of the Kuwait crisis: three Kennan KH-11s and one Lacrosse imaging radar satellite. All of these satellites have a 24 hours capability, with night coverage is provided by some type of image intensifier system. These satellites use some sort of starlight scope -- the same sort of night vision goggles that helicopter pilots are used. Or the satellite sensor can blend the pixels on the CCD to increase the gain to deal with the lower ambient light in the evening.
I assume these are only the ones near Kuwait.
Here by the way Link are examples of photos taken by a KH-11 satellite. You will notice they are all greyscale.
You will also notice that:
The optical satellites are flying at an altitudes of from 400 to 800 kilometers have a swath width of from 600 to 1000 kilometers to either side of their ground track. The Lacrosse imaging radar satellite is flying at a little less than 800 kilometers, and is taking pictures as much as a 1000 kilometers off of their ground track. When these satellites are flying over Riyadh in Saudi Arabia, the optical satellite is going to be able to photograph the area between Kuwait and Baghdad, and the radar satellite and the higher flying optical satellites can photograph Baghdad.
Plane change maneuvers are expensive in terms of fuel and take a while:
In general, these satellites have maneuvered very infrequently for drag-makeup, usually at intervals of several months, and as a result of tracking by amateur astronomers, precise orbital elements for five of these seven satellites have been made available for use in this analysis.
This suggests satellites were better ( and I trust this source more), but still not below 5M resolution on the best state of the art types (Meteor Prioida advertises 5 meter resolution, but that is a Russian bird) They will have had advanced imaging satellites at the time as well, with better imaging than the KH-11's. It is specifically mentioned that there is a tradeoff between resolution and area covered.
There simply is NOT a worldwide system of surveillance satellites in existence at the time with the ability to survey the ENTIRE globe, even if there was the technological capability to go through the data. They were mostly in oribits around potential hotspots and intelligence targets.
Changing this takes months.
The assumption that an Unplottable spell makes something just appear as whitespace on a map is idiotic. That defeats the whole purpose of the spell, which is to HIDE the location of a thing. A giant white space on a map is a flashing alert sign. It would be more likely for it to appear as undifferentiated natural land.
Then, we have Muggles being able to notice and ignore Someone Else's Problem Field type spells, simply because they know about them, despite those same spells being noted as being effective on wizards who do know about them in canon.
Then, even if we assume that a worldwide surveillance network that wouldn't work with even early 2000's level technology base actually does work, we need to assume:
It operates so fast that it can detect a small area in a random forest in England in several hours.
The teachers escaping from the school were idiotic enough to use the same type of ward - which they knew had been compromised - again at the new location.
Some of those teachers had already survived a decade of guirella fighting between wizards who were actively trying to murder them, and yet they did not post proper guards, did not react first while the muggles spent minutes fucking around at the edge of the wards, did not have prepared safehouses when they knew Voldemort was back. In short, they were all holding enormous idiot balls.
Random Group of Skinheads #54678, in England, where gun control is the order of the day, have access to heavy ordnance, and military intelligence so advanced that the mere knowledge of its ability and existence would be a state secret.
Said group of drunken hicks managed to then get the drop on said guirella fighters.
Harry does nothing effective, does not object to any of the above, and generally acts shell shocked in a situation where we normally would see him resort to his dark side. Thus, even our protagonist holds the Idiot Ball.
Then, if we accept all of this, we still have to believe that either Hogwarts was destroyed by a conventional missile, or a government authorized a nuclear launch on its own soil. I could tell you about the results of nuclear fallout from a detonation in Scotland, at a high point in the hills, well above sea level such that it is unlikely to settle and more likely to be carried away, and the likely trajectories of the wind-borne poison therefrom, but I think that would be clear.
u/heiligeEzel [+1] (2 days later)
Thank you for the information about satellite images, that is useful. :)
However, just a few points as to the rest of the remarks:
The assumption that an Unplottable spell makes something just appear as whitespace on a map is idiotic.
Not if it's whitespace which the human mind completely refuses to register and automatically fills in with a continuation of the terrain around it.
Then, we have Muggles being able to notice and ignore Someone Else's Problem Field type spells
No, they are able to tell their computer 'find something that seems off and tell us nothing more than coordinates".
The teachers escaping from the school were idiotic enough to use the same type of ward - which they knew had been compromised - again at the new location.
Of course not. Nobody's claiming that the mob found the wizards via satellite images. The only claim is that Hogwarts was found in this way. As for how the mob did, in fact, find the children... is it really so strange that the viewpoint stays with a character who doesn't know for one chapter? :(
Thus, even our protagonist holds the Idiot Ball.
So you're saying that the situation, which you have just described as completely blatantly impossible with the given information, shocks the protagonist into inaction for about five minutes at most, and therefore he's an idiot? I would say that that is rather unfair to him. :P
u/JackStargazer [+0] Primordial Apologist (2 days later)
Well, perhaps. But one of my points from my other post was that the only possible explanation for all these impossibilities is "A Quirrelmort Did It", which is really becoming a tired explanation.
five minutes at most
Significantly more than that, between teleporting and setting up in the forest.
'Find something that seems off'
Again, we can't do that now. You can program a computer to find, say a white space of a specific type or repeating pattern, if that is what shows up, but if it is not regular or consistent it is still a difficult task. And by definition they can't know what they are looking for, because they can't see it.
Most intelligence photos of the time were still printed out and analyzed by actual people, intelligence agents, ostensibly because the technology was not as advanced as it is now when it comes to image recognition.
u/RMcD94 [+0] (2 days later)
No, they are able to tell their computer 'find something that seems off and tell us nothing more than coordinates".
Why wouldn't the coordinates work too?
Why would they ask the computer to search that?
Why would you immediately nuke it? It could be anything, a magic power station, the seals on the gates of hell, a school, etc?!
u/tilkau [+1] (a day later)
3^1/2 inch, not 5^1/2 (which was not a size that existed anyway AFAIK. 5^1/4 did). By the time 386s were around, 5^1/4 floppies were all well on the way out, 3^1/2 inch was practically standard; By the time 486s were reasonably common (1991, which is about the time that 20mb of memory became plausible, if rather high end), 5^1/4 inch floppies were practically relics.
A rough landmark is Windows 3.1, which was released in 1992 and was only available on 3^1/2 floppies.
5^1/4 floppies belong chronologically to the 8086 and 286 era.
u/JackStargazer [+0] Primordial Apologist (a day later)
Right. Mixed that up. I remember the computers in my primary school circa 1993-1994 still used the 5 inch large floppies for programs. Still ran on DOS.
u/tilkau [+1] (a day later)
Weeeeell.. school computers. Yeaahh. Tended to be pretty out-of-date IME.
(still running on DOS would be pretty ordinary, though: Windows 3.1 was mostly just a pretty wrapper over DOS, rather than anything that had a real excuse to call itself an OS, like Win95. OS/2 would be the only other actual OS available then.)
u/MoralRelativity [+5] (11 hours later)
This has escalated quickly and left me feeling down. As per previous comments I also feel that this wasn't realistic within the timeline and story as told so far.
u/PeridexisErrant [+4] put aside fear for courage, and death for life (an hour later)
Oh dear.
This is... not good.
In fact I think this is shaping up to be a significantly darker final arc than HPMOR, though it might be a while before we know for sure.
u/RMcD94 [+5] (2 hours later)
Why don't they just disillusion themselves?
Seems way smarter than doing the whole area protection thing, speaking of which, since when could you know that you'd been moved or turned around by that?
Why was there a military brigade moving through that forest anyway, and why aren't they capturing wizards to interrogate, they're clearly on the downside of information warfare, couldn't they see that if Cornelius could do that then shouldn't they assume anyone can teleport into the middle of Parliament and kill them all? Unless they can trace wizards attacking is pretty pointless.
u/BekenBoundaryDispute [+3] (a day later)
Okay, so you're a violent mob which has little-to-no understanding how magic works, and you want to kill some wizards. Any wizards, you aren't in the mood to be specific.
Do you target:
A. Magically warded undetectable wizard schools in the countryside.
or
B. The local occult curios store (which you have no idea that it is actually run by clueless muggles), which you've always suspected to have politically questionable clientele.
We have to remember that if the HPMORverse even moderately resembles our own, for every real wizard out there, there are a lot of things which just seem vaguely supernatural, and these are easier to go after, both politically and tactically. Indeed, if you are a scared real wizard who wants this to just go away, strategic manipulation towards fake targets keeps a lot of pressure off of you while the muggles kill themselves.
And now, let's say you are a nigh-immortal wizard that could survive a nuclear war (e.g. Voldemort). The few things which could kill or incapacitate you are exotic muggle disasters in the relatively near future (runaway superintelligent AI, etc.)
Throwing back the wider world a few centuries, while preserving knowledge among yourself, and possibly, but not necessarily, your easily-controllable proxy could be tactically advantageous, buying much needed time to validate that your techno-magical singularity won't go foom or be disrupted by something out of your control.
You would have already started the war and taken over the country, but the dementors were a problem you couldn't quite handle until HJPEV showed up. A wizard-ruled world that you don't have to manage on a day-to-day basis, because it is paranoid and focused on control of muggles, is a significant, time-saving bonus.