19 KiB
Following the Phoenix Chapter 104: The Muggle War, Pt 3
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Author: u/None *
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URL:
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Score: 4
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Created: 2014-12-01T08:40:11
Post:
Comments:
u/E-o_o-3 [+1] (16 hours later)
Why can't wizard civilians just stop using magic (except really subtle magic) and live undetectably amongst the muggle population until it all blows over? Like in the old days? Muggle borns are probably already on the census as registered normal people, and there's not that many purebloods to arouse suspicion if a few extra undocumented people start appearing.
There might be witch trials but you can often fake deaths and divert suspicions with subtle magic. The Statute of Secrecy might be easily broken by a powerful wizard, it's true (I mean really, the SoS is near-unenforceable, but it's also canon so we should probably make the best case for it being enforceable)... but there is absolutely no way Muggle intelligence can beat people who can modify memories and impersonate people at will. A military showdown and/or using magic to hide is just about the worse strategy for Wizards right now, the magical edge is subtlety.
I suppose if it goes on too long you'll lose too much knowledge due to the Interdict, but you've got a good 25-50 years of solid, easy hiding before you start really losing things. Plenty of time for bringing stuff mostly back to normal.
(In fact...given the Muggle leader's thought that they weren't human, it occurs to me that they could just hide the purebloods as pet animals, though that magic might not be subtle enough to escape muggle detection).
u/khafra [+1] (a day later)
Why can't wizard civilians just stop using magic (except really subtle magic) and live undetectably amongst the muggle population until it all blows over? Like in the old days? Muggle borns are probably already on the census as registered normal people, and there's not that many purebloods to arouse suspicion if a few extra undocumented people start appearing.
Is it likely that muggles will avoid harming undocumented persons? Or is it more likely that every undocumented or questionably documented person is detained in Gitmo II, and any child showing signs of accidental magic is implanted with mind-control tech, or at least an explosive collar, right after their parents get a .50cal round through the head from a mile away?
u/E-o_o-3 [+1] (a day later)
That's still a lot better than "lets cluster together in easy-to-identify targets so that our way-more-powerful enemy knows exactly how to find us, rather than having to carefully search and spy on members of their own population".
If you have magic, you can get pretty creative with not being caught as an undocumented. You can pretend to be a hunter-gatherer tribe in the Amazon. You can hide in plain sight as a local animal indefinitely (Well, in canon any skilled wizard can do any human transfiguration on anyone. I think that may have been nerfed on HPMOR). You can use mind magic to encourage people to not notice that you have no business being where you are. If you're feeling immoral, you can just steal an identity. Getting a fake ID or registration number would be laughably easy.
(Also, I've actually seen the mind control tech we have in labs right now, it's cool and one day it might be scary, but it will be a while. And none of it has even been tried on humans, unless there are secret military things.)
u/Gurkenglas [+1] (a day later)
Why didn't nobody contact another Phoenix owner per Patronus when Hermione didn't seem to be coming back?
u/RMcD94 [+0] (13 hours later)
"And where were you when a mob of crazy Muggles attacked them?"
Definitely military not crazy Muggles. No one has tear gas and gas masks, certainly not mobs, nor would mobs happen to wander through the forest and already have knowledge of how to deal with magic (see that guy saying just look for when you can't go somewhere or whatever).
Still doesn't feel very realistic but I feel like Quirrel did it is going to be the solution to everything like that
u/philip1201 [+1] (18 hours later)
Edit: field report: this comment chain is not very productive. I would recommend against arguing with RMcD94 in the future, as both that or reading the arguments is a profound waste of time.
A) (crazy) Military is a subset of crazy muggles
B) It was mentioned at least twice that the military bases were handing out their stockpiles to civilians for the sake of guerilla warfare
C) Anthropic bias for the Muggle who discovered the house numbers. Assuming 100,000 Britons regularly interact with wizard environments, that's a thousand man-years of searching for clues as obvious as a discontinuity in air currents. Or ten man-years when you consider scrubs only.
u/eaglejarl [+1] (a day later)
Edit: field report: this comment chain is not very productive. I would recommend against arguing with RMcD94 in the future, as both that or reading the arguments is a profound waste of time.
Yeah, but he's hella amusing once you let go of the idea that you can convince him of anything.
In fairness, he's getting at least marginally better -- the first ten reviews he left on 2YE were utterly unprintable (and also left as guest reviews instead of under his name). After I called him out on it, he logged in and started writing without curse words, and he's been keeping it relatively clean here on Reddit.
u/RMcD94 [+0] (18 hours later)
A) (crazy) Military is a subset of crazy muggles
Specifically the crazy point is what I was talking about. Military are not crazy muggles since they're doing their job.
B) It was mentioned at least twice that the military bases were handing out their stockpiles to civilians for the sake of guerilla warfare
Civilians are not capable of using weaponry, including grenades, tear gas, gas masks, etc, after not even 24 hours nor in large groups. Nor are civilians trained in coordinating that kind of forest sweep.
Anthropic bias for the Muggle who discovered the house numbers
Yeah but while there might have been hundreds (if that) of house numbers (which again, is extremely stupid if you think about it for even a moment) the chances of someone being involved in both figuring out how wards work at a house and then training in weaponry, and then taking charge of a group going out into Dean forest, etc. Very unlikely.
The whole time turner thing in the next chapter literally allows for the story to become story/cheap movie esque where you can have a character constantly "barely" survive everything (see every running scene ever)
u/philip1201 [+2] (a day later)
Specifically the crazy point is what I was talking about. Military are not crazy muggles since they're doing their job.
Violating the Geneva conventions, escalating tensions into a full-blown civil war in their own country, and/or arming crazies who have done the same.
Civilians are not capable of using weaponry, including grenades, tear gas, gas masks, etc, after not even 24 hours nor in large groups. Nor are civilians trained in coordinating that kind of forest sweep.
Do you have military or paramilitary credentials? If yes: holy crap, they let people who think arming mobs that set negotiators on fire is a good idea into the military? If no: what reason do you have to believe humans are not, in fact, good at throwing rock-sized objects or following directions with an uncertainty less than two orders of magnitude greater than the area being searched for? (Quirrel wanted to attack Harry, so he located Harry (trivial, since the wards were set up to prevent muggle attack, not wizard scrying), turned the local army leader guy (memory charm, imperio, etc.), and got him to tell the mob where to find wizards and witches to burn).
(which again, is extremely stupid if you think about it for even a moment)
Welcome to
wizarding britainany human organisation, enjoy uour stay.(e.g. switching to opt-out organ donation saves 0.01% of your nation's population per year (where 'saving' is ~5 extra years of life, for a total of 0.05% increase in total utility per annum) without costing extra money or reducing agency; the 90%+ probability that neither of us will shift our opinions by the end of this (prediction; not a signal of unwillingness on my part); the state of education; using owls to deliver mail; electrons having negative charge; QWERTY keyboards, etc.)
Consider the following: if wizards didn't have addresses, what should they fill in on their tax forms? How would they receive mail? It might need separate filing systems and everything! Obviously it's better just to give them proper house names and let the department of obfuscation or whatever deal with the difficulties: they're not paying me to do their job on top of mine, you know.
the chances of someone being involved in both figuring out how wards work at a house and then training in weaponry, and then taking charge of a group going out into Dean forest, etc. Very unlikely.
I might have missed it, but where did you get the impression that they are the same person?
The whole time turner thing in the next chapter literally allows for the story to become story/cheap movie esque where you can have a character constantly "barely" survive everything (see every running scene ever)
Oh no, whatever is the Destined Hero, The Boy Who Lived, Last Scion of the Most Noble House of Potter, Killer of Dementors, Most Competent Guy in the Room, Discoverer of Timeless Physics, Ward of Dumbledore, etc. etc. now that his story has become cliché?
As we have seen with Munroe, Quirrel is trying to craft a hero the only way his emotionally stunted self knows how: by throwing a bunch of Hero Tropes at the wall and expecting people to see a leader they want to follow.
That is, however, an in-universe explanation, which wouldn't excuse out-of-universe bad writing by doing the same as Quirrel and throwing hero tropes at Harry. So far though, I don't thing the author has done worse of a job at that than Yudkowsky, both being less clichéd than main canon (which is a children's book, and therefore good in different ways than the depth of the plot), and I would suggest decrying it only once its usage becomes problematic, rather than when it is merely introduced.
Since the author is a competent writer, I'd expect her to know that now that it has been explicitly stated that Harry is safe, a significant amount of tension drops in cases where he is supposedly under threat, so she'll know to handle it properly and escalate.
u/RMcD94 [-1] (a day later)
Violating the Geneva conventions, escalating tensions into a full-blown civil war in their own country, and/or arming crazies who have done the same.
Which seems to be the appropriate move for the military. Since it's clearly working. Though, yeah, I'll admit the military higher ups are certainly crazy the difference between a mob and a military unit is enough that I deem one crazy and one following orders.
If no: what reason do you have to believe humans are not, in fact, good at throwing rock-sized objects
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFyNjwmyUyY#t=24
Remember that this is a military example, pretty likely they've thrown plenty of non-live grenades before this one too.
Now think of the dozens of times you or someone you've known has tried to throw a ball or something and missed. Then think of the ball being a timed trigger, then think that you have to count the number of seconds and throw the ball so that it impacts as just the right time on a shield that you can't see.
And if it bounces back it's going to blow you up, etc.
Again, I know literally every single thing unlikely in the story is just going to be Quirrel did it. Every tiny thing that doesn't make sense was Quirrel.
Welcome to wizarding britain any human organisation, enjoy uour stay.
That's if you assume that it was a wizarding Britain thing, rather than individual wizards thing, which is a lot more likely.
It might need separate filing systems and everything
To be honest the Ministry probably has seven hundred billion filing systems that are all horribly mismanaged and wrong. Seems like the kind of bureaucracy they'd prefer.
I might have missed it, but where did you get the impression that they are the same person?
Knowing how to interact with wards? Again, Quirrel did it.
. now that his story has become cliché
Good point, but I think you can agree there's a difference between setting up a character to be Mary Sue, which you can usually do with the adjustment of one characteristic (see rationality) and then having that character also narrowly avoid death like you see in movies when the main character will run through no man's land for 789 miles without being hit by a bullet once, BUT they will all just miss him. TENSION
I would suggest decrying it only once its usage becomes problematic, rather than when it is merely introduced.
Fair enough, I'll just make a note of it here, since it did happen twice in quick succession, and I suppose it makes sense to show us that he barely survived so we can understand what Quirrel is doing.
u/ToMetric [+2] (a day later)
789 mile(s) = 1269.77 km
u/philip1201 [+2] (a day later)
Which seems to be the appropriate move for the military. Since it's clearly working.
Violating the Geneva conventions is the appropriate move? What the hell? Ruining your international standing, removing the option of negotiation, enraging your enemies and radicalising those on the fence. (See torture during the War on Terror, or Dutch war crimes during the Indonesian war of independence if the former risks making things too political). It may be in some military leaders' best interest to ensure violence continues, and for that these tactics are likely to be effective, but it certainly isn't their job description.
Also, how is it clearly working? What metric are you using?
Remember that this is a military example, pretty likely they've thrown plenty of non-live grenades before this one too.
Are you familiar with the concept of Bayesian evidence? If so, please demonstrate by explaining how that video is (not) evidence.
Now think of the dozens of times you or someone you've known has tried to throw a ball or something and missed.
Where "something" is everything in a 150 degree arc in front of you, and at an angle between 0 and +80 degrees from the horizon: I have managed to hit that window 100% of cases in my adult life (n on the order of 100). I expect the true rate to be somewhere in excess of 99.9% accuracy for people who trust themselves to throw live weaponry.
Then think of the ball being a timed trigger, then think that you have to count the number of seconds and throw the ball so that it impacts as just the right time on a shield that you can't see.
And if it bounces back it's going to blow you up, etc.
Where do you get the idea from that this is actually what they have to do? For that matter, where do you get the idea that they actually bounce back? Molotov cocktails don't have timers, and for tear gas it isn't a problem if they fail. Military grenades might have this problem, but they aren't explicitly used in the text.
Again, I know literally every single thing unlikely in the story is just going to be Quirrel did it. Every tiny thing that doesn't make sense was Quirrel.
Could you rephrase that into a bet? I think we disagree on this, and that you aren't rational enough to fall pray to Aumann's agreement theorem, so I would like to pump you for utility and allow you to do the same according to your worldview. May evolution decide who has the better priors.
That's if you assume that it was a wizarding Britain thing, rather than individual wizards thing, which is a lot more likely.
Why do you believe it's a lot more likely that it's an individual wizards thing?
Knowing how to interact with wards? Again, Quirrel did it.
The wards thing was in the news and spread to others. Pay attention.
but I think you can agree there's a difference between setting up a character to be Mary Sue, which you can usually do with the adjustment of one characteristic (see rationality) and then having that character also narrowly avoid death like you see in movies when the main character will run through no man's land for 789 miles without being hit by a bullet once, BUT they will all just miss him. TENSION
You forgot halfway through that you started the sentence with "there's a difference between..."
u/ToMetric [+1] (a day later)
789 mile(s) = 1269.77 km
u/eaglejarl [+1] (18 hours later)
Civilians are not capable of using weaponry, including grenades, tear gas,
I'm pretty sure most people can manage "pull the little part out, then throw the big part".
u/RMcD94 [+1] (a day later)
I don't know about you but I would not be comfortable walking in a group of violent individuals who've just held a grenade and weaponry for their first time in their entire life. Have no concept of keeping their finger off the trigger. On top of that they're wearing uncomfortable gas masks are exploring Dean Forest either after sunset or near sunset (when are these attacks taking place April? I can't remember).
They'd kill more of their own than wizards would.
Also when you thinking about timing the grenade to explode when it hit the shield, not when it bounced back, etc.
People drop grenades after their live even in the military.
u/eaglejarl [+1] (a day later)
All of which is true and none of which is relevant to "cannot use weapons."
u/RMcD94 [-1] (a day later)
"cannot use weapons" is a short hand for saying "the chances of them using weapons in the way displayed is incredibly unlikely"
u/eaglejarl [+1] (a day later)
Ah, got it. My bad -- I'm not sure how I confused those two statements.
u/philip1201 [+1] (2 days later)
You're right, it is funnier this way.
u/eaglejarl [+1] (2 days later)
:>