58 KiB
Following the Phoenix Chapter 106: The Muggle War, Pt 4
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Author: u/None *
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URL:
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Score: 14
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Created: 2014-12-02T14:08:41
Post:
Comments:
u/Anakiri [+2] (2 hours later)
"[The Dark Lord wanted] the attack on Hogwarts, certainly. It is well-placed to lead us into a war with Muggles, and yet keep all the tensions local to Britain."
I'm curious as to what other muggle nations think about a nuclear weapon being used on the UK so soon after the Cold War. The Soviet Union is gone, but post-soviet states still have their weapons and resources, and so do the Americans, and so do all the European nations in firing range of someone willing to use nukes. Just moving nuclear weapons has caused international incidents that nearly destroyed the planet.
u/JackStargazer [+3] Primordial Apologist (2 hours later)
Especially since it was apparently fired WITHOUT approval.
Yeah, I'd probably be more worried about that little factor than random wizard attacks on the level of civil unrest.
u/ElimGarak [+2] (14 hours later)
Good point. By that act Quirrell would have moved the world closer to an all-out nuclear war, not farther. All it would take is one guy in Russia with an itchy trigger finger deciding that this is the beginning of a war. Especially with the complete mess that was in Russia immediately after the dissolution of USSR.
u/None [+2] (2 hours later)
Yay, Greengrasses are coming to Ukraine! (which just got it's independence - USSR had fallen less than a year ago, so the economics it not in great state)
u/None [+2] (12 hours later)
I kinda stopped following this story somewhere around chapter 20, after reading the heavy criticism the "Muggle War" plotline was getting. Now the rewriting's all done, it safe to jump back in?
u/NotUnusualYet [+3] (13 hours later)
It's a lot better, though perhaps still not as good as the earlier chapters. I'd say it's safe.
u/laughing-mad [+1] (21 hours later)
I couldn't help but giggle when Harry referred to the Hogwarts refugee house as an "orphanage."
u/taulover [+1] House Atreides (a day later)
Muggle groups had discovered the locations of an alarmingly large number of wizarding houses. The Aurors were not sure how it had happened, but the theory so far was that some enterprising Muggles had set up a watch to look out for owls.
Shouldn't they be trying to make their owls invisible, then? Of course, then they would just come up with other methods.
u/ElimGarak [+0] (14 hours later)
I was really disappointed that the author didn't fix the glaring time travel mistakes from the previous chapters. After she started working on fixing things, I had some hope, but nope, nothing.
First of all, Quirrell is utilizing the same method that Harry tried for P=NP problem solving. He is collapsing timelines where his attack led to Harry's death. That's not allowed in HPMOR.
Second, it would be completely pointless for Harry to hide after an attack has occurred - because it cannot be changed. Hiding before an attack would make sense, since then Quirrell might not know that Harry was alive - which means that Harry would need to permanently hide. Doable, if annoying.
All the talk about "throwing" bombs sounds weird - this was not well stated, and repeated many times. And the fact that the word "bomb" was used so many times is a problem from a technical perspective.
Furthermore, Harry was portrayed to be rather dumb when he suggested that the wizards could just take out all the nukes and bombs in UK. It wouldn't have worked - especially with the nuclear submarines, and all the stockpiles of conventional munitions. As well as weapons from outside the country. As soon as the wizards decide to officially start a war, US would get involved and squash any opposition. And it has far more weapons.
From a technical perspective this is a well written fic, but there are serious logical problems and issues of scale.
u/heiligeEzel [+3] (18 hours later)
I was really disappointed that the author didn't fix the glaring time travel mistakes from the previous chapters.
You were disappointed that the author, who has explicitly stated that she didn't agree that the "mistakes" you pointed out were in fact problematic, didn't change them?
Here's a challenge: if I can provide a possible model of how time travel could work that (a) blocks the prime number problem, but (b) does not block Quirrell's trick, and (c) makes it sensible for Harry to hide under the cloak after apparent and potentially lethal Quirrell-interference, will you admit that you are wrong? :)
u/scruiser [+2] CYOA (23 hours later)
(a) blocks the prime number problem, but (b) does not block Quirrell's trick, and (c) makes it sensible for Harry to hide under the cloak after apparent and potentially lethal Quirrell-interference, will you admit that you are wrong? :)
I remember I had this discussion already with ElimGarak, although I did not fully present the model. As long as Quirrel only checks that Harry is alive (which he can probably use the horocrux connection for) and doesn't let any information directly about the success of the attack itself go through, he can then timeturner back and either launch the attack if he saw Harry alive, or not launch the attack if he did not see Harry. If his scrying method wouldn't scry at all if Harry is dead of hidden, then he can avoid accidentally seeing Harry dead and fixing that future.
Thus Harry hiding from scrying (which may be difficult given the horocrux connection) would prevent Quirrel from seeing him and prevent Quirrel from deciding to trigger the attack.
An even better strategy may be for Harry to convince Quirrel that he is dead, although because they cannot predict his reaction to this it is riskier.
u/ElimGarak [+1] (a day later)
As long as Quirrel only checks that Harry is alive (which he can probably use the horocrux connection for) and doesn't let any information directly about the success of the attack itself go through, he can then timeturner back and either launch the attack if he saw Harry alive, or not launch the attack if he did not see Harry.
I still don't see an appreciable difference between this and the prime number factorization problem.
Thus Harry hiding from scrying (which may be difficult given the horocrux connection) would prevent Quirrel from seeing him and prevent Quirrel from deciding to trigger the attack.
But hiding after the attack would be pointless, since the attack has happened, which means that either Quirrell knows that Harry survived anyway, or he did not check in the first place.
u/scruiser [+1] CYOA (2 days later)
The prime number factorization give a larger amount of information directly back to itself. This makes the timeloops very unlikely compared to "DO NOT MESS WITH TIME" messages. Checking for Harry and nothing else restricts the amount of information and makes the timeloop more stable.
So basically with my model, time loops become more unlikely the more information you try to loop back on itself. At some point (at least by the information of two prime numbers) the loop becomes very improbable. Quirrel checking for Harry alive or dead is basically one bit of information and he allows for false positives, so maybe even less than that. There are 143 3-digit prime number, which means there are 143*143=20449 combination, log base 2 of 20499=14.32. Thus Harry's prime number requires 15 bits of information to loop back on itself. Somewhere between 1 bit of information and 15 bits of information there is a point where loops start to become very unlikely. For Harry's prime number factorization to work, he needs a pre-commitment strong enough to make a 1/20499 event the most likely.
Consider Harry's time turner prank on himself, some pretty complicated time loops are possible, it is just given human decision making and the quantity of information involved they are unlikely. The fact that the time turner prank worked could mean that under unusual circumstances, what seem like improbable loops are probable because people are making decisions differently.
*Edit: If I were to make a simple model a given time loop has 1/2^(number of bits of information) odds of success. Thus Quirrel's usage in Following the Phoenix has a 50% chance of working each time, with the other 50% giving false warning for killing Harry. Tricks like prime number factorization would almost never work with this model. If Harry can come up with hashes for 1, 2, and 3 bits of information, he could test this pretty quickly. The 1 bit would work 50% of the time, 2 bits would work 25% of the time, 3 bit 12.5%. He could then introduce other factors, like trying to strengthen his precomittments or passing the information through someone that doesn't understand it in order to see if it still counts as information for the purposes of time loops (if it doesn't, it might explain how his prank on himself was possible).
u/ElimGarak [+1] (2 days later)
This is still a pretty big change to the perceived initial time travel model. Harry during his prank was not making decisions based on information from the future, and was not pruning possible timelines. IMHO the moment you start making decisions based on some information from the future that may make that information invalid, is the moment you start delving into potential paradoxes which are not allowed.
u/scruiser [+2] CYOA (3 days later)
Harry during his prank was not making decisions based on information from the future, and was not pruning possible timelines.
Stealing this idea. This would mean that Harry's prime number factorization failed because he was making decisions about what numbers to write down based on what number's he received. Also, I said it wrong in my post, the actual space he was exploring was all odd 3 digit number, so a space of 450*450=201601 possible outcomes 1/201601 odds of success. This still doesn't rule out a more decent success rate for more confined solution spaces.
If Harry could find an algorithm that didn't involve such a huge space of decisions, it would have a better chance of working. Hmm... already got an experimental test. Open the envelope, multiply the numbers or do nothing if "NO". If the numbers multiply to the answer, send the number back, if not send "NO". If the odds of timeline stability are determined by the decision space, this algorithm has a 50% chance of success, if determined by information sent back, it has a tiny probability of working (1/201601 or something tiny like that).
u/ElimGarak [+1] (3 days later)
Yes, that sort of experiment would be interesting. :)
u/anonymfus [+2] (a day later)
But why Harry did not ask Dumbledore about this?
u/None [+1] (23 hours later)
[removed]
u/ElimGarak [+1] (a day later)
Ha, no, I claimed that I don't think that the situation presented fits into the time travel rules stated in HPMOR. I did not decide that the model is impossible to create, I said that I don't see a how this would fit into the HPMOR model.
And I still think that it wouldn't. There would have to be severe limitations and huge assumptions made to assume this - for example the absence of free will and pretty much the existence of fate, since this means that the entire universe can be pre-computed since its creation.
u/ElimGarak [+1] (a day later)
Here's a challenge: if I can provide a possible model of how time travel could work that (a) blocks the prime number problem, but (b) does not block Quirrell's trick, and (c) makes it sensible for Harry to hide under the cloak after apparent and potentially lethal Quirrell-interference, will you admit that you are wrong? :)
Of course. This is not a religion. I don't blindly believe in something. If there is something that explains everything then that would be better.
u/heiligeEzel [+9] (a day later)
Alright then! This model is basically what is done in Hacking the Source of Magic, but fleshed out a little. To keep the model simple, I only allow one time jump rather than a maximum of 6 - which means there can never be more than two copies of the same person running around.
These are obviously simplifications. The model can be extended to a system allowing 6 jumps (and in a way that seems to cover all the time travel in HPMoR and FtP I can think of) but I still have to write half a chapter of FtP before Saturday, so I'm trying to keep it minimal. (This actually is an interesting exercise in an algorithm writing challenge, and I fear I have a bit of a tendency to get carried away with that sort of thing. :P)
THE MODEL: the entire universe is simulated by a deterministic "computer", running the following algorithm:
- assume given: a simulation of the next 6 hours, for which we can query every state at every point in time;
- assume moreover that this simulation is stable with regards to time travel: (a) for every person who leaves from timepoint N to timepoint M, an exact copy appears at time M; (b) for every person and object who appears using time travel, there is a corresponding person leaving;
- now simulate either one further second, or until the next person attempts to time-travel, whichever comes sooner;
- if nobody tried to time-travel, we have a stable simulation for the next 6 hours and 1 second; execute 1 second in reality and continue from start with the remaining 6 hours;
- if someone did try to time-travel, say at 0.31 seconds into our new simulation, call them THE TRAVELLER
- now, for every person and object in the entire simulation who time-travels (including THE TRAVELLER): save their state at the moment of travelling, and the exact time they should arrive;
- make a separate simulation of the next 6 hours plus 0.31 seconds, following standard physical rules, except that you magically insert a copy of the time-travelling person at the moment they were travelling to;
- test whether the simulation is stable with regards to time travel;
- if so, execute 0.31 seconds in reality, and continue from the start with the remaining 6 hours simulation you have
- if not, find a stable simulation to prevent THE TRAVELLER from messing things up, using one of the following three techniques: (a) have them give themselves a warning (e.g. NO or DON'T MESS WITH TIME), (b) if a fails, find a minimal interference which severely hurts them (aside from the laws of physics and magic, the simulation can introduce "temporal magic" to achieve nasty effects), (c) if a and b both fail, prevent the travel simply by having temporal magic flare and break their Time-Turner (possibly killing THE TRAVELLER in the process, if we want to be nasty);
- we now definitely have a stable simulation for 6 hours + 0.31 seconds; execute 0.31 seconds in reality, and continue from the start with the remaining 6 hours simulation you have
EXAMPLE: At 10pm, Harry goes back in time 2 hours to study in his trunk.
- somewhere around 4pm, the computer has calculated what's going to happen in the next 6 hours and detects that Harry wants to travel back in time; nobody else happens to be time-travelling in that 6-hour window
- the computer saves "Harry Potter , 8pm, has traveled 1 time for a total of 2 hours"
- the computer makes a new simulation, copying the original one until 8pm, then introduces a copy of the Harry Potter from 10pm there
- there are now two Harrys in the separate simulation: the original one, and the copy; the computer simulates the remaining 2 hours where they conveniently don't run into each other
- at 10pm, the original Harry has had exactly the same experience he had before, so also decides to go back in time; consequently, the simulation is stable and is adopted as the real one
EXAMPLE (situation b): at 3pm, Quirrell plots burning the orphanage, but he will only do so if Harry survives. He consequently sends a note to Marielle "at 6:01pm, use that device I gave you, which detects whether Harry Potter is alive, then go back in time three hours and send me a YES note if he did; if he didn't, or you get a message from yourself saying NO, just send yourself a NO note, and don't bother sending me anything". He decides that if he does not get a note, he will not attack the orphanage, but if he receives a YES, he will.
- somewhere around 11am, the computer has calculated that Quirrell has sent his instructions, but never got anything back, since the time travel is not yet part of the simulation; thus, the simulation so far has Quirrell not burning the orphanage, and Harry remaining quite alive
- finally, shortly after noon, the computer has calculated what's going to happen and detects that Marielle will use the device; since so far in the simulation, Quirrell has not burned the ophanage, and there is no message from her past self, she is going to detect that Harry is still alive
- the computer consequently saves "Marielle Dutant , 3:01pm, has traveled 1 time for a total of 2 hours, and is carrying a note saying YES "
- the computer makes a new simulation, branching away at 3:01, where Marielle arrives and sends Quirrell the YES-note; in this new simulation, the orphanage gets burned
Now there are two possibilities:
- in the rest of the simulation, Harry pulls another stunt and survives; then, the original Marielle still pulls YES at 6:01pm, so the simulation is stable and therefore becomes reality
Or:
- in the rest of the simulation, Harry dies; then, the original Marielle pulls NO at 6:01pm. This means that the simulation is unstable, because the Marielle who arrives at 3:01pm is not an exact copy of the Marielle who leaves at 6:01pm. Thus, the computer tries to avoid the time travel
- a stable solution is found by making Marielle send herself a NO note, which means nothing is sent to Quirrell regardless of what the Harry-checking-device says; the orphanage is not burned, and Harry survives
Edit: this model is very restrictive: a person who has gone back in time is not allowed to interact with a person who is going to go back in time afterwards at all (including themselves). An obvious improvement is to allow one extra "stabilisation loop": if we find that the new simulation is not stable, then rather than immediately trying to stabilise it using a "DO NOT MESS WITH TIME" we can simply save all occurrences of people who go back in time again, and make another simulation where those people get introduced at the right time. This should allow for self-interactions (and, if extended further, for going back multiple times).
u/scruiser [+3] CYOA (a day later)
Huh, I wouldn't have guessed you planned to go with a computable model. You realize that this means either the universe is a simulation, or that magic is maintaining a powerful simulation forward in time. One problem you have is that your source of magic/computer simulation also needs to isolate information of time travelers from affecting their environment. Considering chaos theory and butterfly effects, a slight shift in the atmosphere from a time traveler may result in someone unrelated to the time loop acting differently 5 hours later. Does your system simply isolate these variables? Also, what about prophecies? Their existence implies much longer length stable time loops, or something with tremendous modeling and predictive capacity over reality.
I would have gone with an uncomputable model. Stable time loops simply exist. However, there are some kind of meta-rules which determine what stable time loops are more likely to exist in the first place. If Harry had forced a hard precommitment on himself he might have raised his probability high enough to make his time-turner experiment work. The meta-rules combined with how humans make decisions result in "DO NOT MESS WITH TIME" messages being the most probable outcome when paradoxes might otherwise arise. There is no hard limit on time travel, but a time-turner that goes longer than 6 hours would result in paradoxes too often and just spit out "NO" messages most of the time (with a small chance of working longer under the right circumstances.). Prophecies work by the same mechanism.
u/heiligeEzel [+2] (a day later)
Huh, I wouldn't have guessed you planned to go with a computable model.
Basically, I'm a computer scientist, I write what I know. ;) I'm not claiming this is the model from HPMOR (which could well have a sentient source of magic with a great sense of fairness), but this was the quickest to write down.
u/ElimGarak [+2] (a day later)
if not, find a stable simulation to prevent THE TRAVELLER from messing things up, using one of the following three techniques: (a) have them give themselves a warning (e.g. NO or DON'T MESS WITH TIME), (b) if a fails, find a minimal interference which severely hurts them (aside from the laws of physics and magic, the simulation can introduce "temporal magic" to achieve nasty effects), (c) if a and b both fail, prevent the travel simply by having temporal magic flare and break their Time-Turner (possibly killing THE TRAVELLER in the process, if we want to be nasty);
Yes, I see - if you are allowed to mess with the rules universe, adjusting things in such a way that the traveler changes nothing, then you avoid the potential infinite recursion and stack overflow. This is possible primarily because you are assuming a deterministic universe and are playing fast and loose with some of its internal rules.
the computer makes a new simulation, branching away at 3:01, where Marielle arrives and sends Quirrell the YES-note; in this new simulation, the orphanage gets burned
I don't understand why this is different from Harry trying to solve the P=NP problem. It seems like an identical situation, except that instead of solving the very complex prime factorization problem he is solving a much simpler attack / don't attack problem.
The only difference that I can think of is that the computer has a loop counter and jumps out of the computation loop if it ran more than N simulations. In that case it just aborts and has the traveler send a "do not mess with time" note.
This is a pretty big jump though. Especially given what Harry knows and doesn't know in HPMOR. If he came to such a realization on the nature of time, then you should have explicitly explained it in the story - otherwise it doesn't make sense for Harry and Dumbles to spontaneously deduce Quirrell's method.
Now, what about Harry's decision to hide for 6 hours after an attack? If the attack has already occurred then that won't change. Alternatively, if we use the model you suggested above, then why wouldn't the simulation resolve the unstable loop by having Harry stumble and pop out from under his cloak, and get detected? A much safer and more guaranteed approach, one that avoids potential paradoxes, would be to just hide permanently. Or at least semi-permanently.
u/heiligeEzel [+2] (a day later)
This is a pretty big jump though. Especially given what Harry knows and doesn't know in HPMOR. If he came to such a realization on the nature of time, then you should have explicitly explained it in the story - otherwise it doesn't make sense for Harry and Dumbles to spontaneously deduce Quirrell's method.
Well, in truth, I never considered it anything but completely obvious that if Quirrell can ask the future "hey, is Harry alive?" that it makes sense for Harry to try to make the answer come out "dunno" - no sudden epiphanies about the nature of time travel (which won't really be exploited later beyond avoiding further Harry-targeting attacks anyway) are needed if he thinks like me on this point, even without having a direct model of time travel in his mind.
Rationalising afterwards why it would be obvious to him: Harry is entirely familiar with Timeless Decision Theory, as established in chapter 33. Thus, it would be clear to him that if Quirrell is checking the future, that there might be some kind of simulation of the future going on, to determine the message he will get. Thus, it makes sense for Harry to hide under the cloak after an attack, even though it already happened, because he might be in the simulation.
(The actual time travel that Quirrell is doing is one of those "background" things mentioned in the author's note for 104, by the way. So eventually it'll be edited in - and then I expect it will seem a lot less miraculous for Harry and Quirrell to deduce it, because the readers have already seen how it works.)
u/ElimGarak [+1] (2 days later)
So basically you had two of your characters suddenly and independently arrive at a brand new (at least to the reader) conclusion on the nature of time, time travel, and the universe. In the middle of a chapter.
And that's why I don't buy it.
I agree that your model might be possible in the HPMOR world. But we have seen no evidence of that, and neither has Harry.
u/heiligeEzel [+3] (3 days later)
So basically you had two of your characters suddenly and independently arrive at a brand new (at least to the reader) conclusion on the nature of time, time travel, and the universe. In the middle of a chapter.
No, I had two characters, one of which has a lot of experience with time travel and the other of which has read a lot of science fiction, presented with a given successful use of time travel.
Harry does not need to conclude "oh, then time travel must work like this"; he doesn't need to draw conclusions about the likelihood of succesfully retrieving information from the future. He only needs to conclude that if it is indeed possible to look into the future, confirm Harry-survival and execute a dastardly plot (surprising though that possibility may be), then any such dastardly plot can be avoided by making sure that there is no stable time loop where Quirrell sees Harry surviving after a plot.
u/ElimGarak [+1] (3 days later)
No, I had two characters, one of which has a lot of experience with time travel and the other of which has read a lot of science fiction, presented with a given successful use of time travel.
I did not get that sense either. This is feedback from the reader - there is nothing to prove or disprove here. Given the complexity of time travel, for them both to arrive at the same conclusion that may possibly be impossible, without discussion, does not make sense. If your characters jump straight to C without going through A and B, especially for complex problems, then that doesn't make sense.
He only needs to conclude that if it is indeed possible to look into the future, confirm Harry-survival and execute a dastardly plot (surprising though that possibility may be), then any such dastardly plot can be avoided by making sure that there is no stable time loop where Quirrell sees Harry surviving after a plot.
So you are saying that Harry concluded that, even though his hypothesis for how the universe functions may be impossible, making that guess for how Quirrell operates invalid. Without thinking it through and going through some experimentation or research. Nope, that's illogical and irrational. Why didn't he jump to the conclusion that Quirrell had implanted a tracking device in him and was monitoring him through spy satellites?
u/RMcD94 [+1] (23 hours later)
Furthermore, Harry was portrayed to be rather dumb when he suggested that the wizards could just take out all the nukes and bombs in UK. It wouldn't have worked - especially with the nuclear submarines, and all the stockpiles of conventional munitions. As well as weapons from outside the country.
Indeed, at this point in time the UK has a stockpile of around 400 nuclear weapons.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_nuclear_weapons_stockpiles_and_nuclear_tests_by_country
u/philip1201 [+1] (a day later)
Plan A: "Accio nuclear warhead" (n.b. do not use vital personnel when trying this out)
Plan B: kidnap military officials you know of, use time turner 1 hr into the past, administer veritaserum, inquire who might know all locations of nuclear weapons and where all nuclear weapons are. Repeat four or five times, then go to every nuclear warhead and unnoticeably make them inoperable. Administer false memory charms as necessary, or use the abducted military in future plans.
Plan C: magical/technological gadget capable of long-term tracking of nuclear bombs that we should be able to figure out using HP canon
Plan D: "accio enriched plutonium". (nb: really use someone expendable this time).
And that's just in a few minutes at my brain capacity. I'm sure Harry can figure something out in minutes and the author in days (lower bound; not expected value).
u/Mr_Smartypants [+3] (a day later)
accio enriched plutonium
Hmm, something about all the high-grade plutonium in the world flying together into a ball at one point seems familiar...
u/philip1201 [+1] (a day later)
It's a rough plan, and can easily be improved upon: Maybe teleport to the moon and do it there, then teleport out before it the stuff arrives. Test with harmless stuff first, etc. etc.
u/RMcD94 [+1] (a day later)
Plan A: "Accio nuclear warhead" (n.b. do not use vital personnel when trying this out)
Does accio have size or distance limits? I feel it must otherwise Accio Quirrel, accio horcruxes, etc.
Plan B seems far too complicated for the wizards Harry knows to successfully administer.
Obviously the author likely wouldn't have mentioned it if they didn't have a method planned so my expection is there is some way to do it.
u/philip1201 [+2] (a day later)
Yes, it's not like we saw any wizards Harry knows organising a complicated technique involving time turners before... Especially not people with great experience in auroring and applying veritaserum...
u/RMcD94 [+1] (a day later)
Barely a single interaction with Muggle's by Wizards has ever gone successfully, and now they've to stage a kidnapping of high military officials who are likely currently all on constant survelliance and communication (when you know you can be impersonated the solution is not to give people a chance to impersonate). Then these people have to work on weapons which are specifically known for their danger and often are set so as not to be easily disarmed.
I mean with the ease you're suggesting, why don't they just go ahead and kidnap the entire population who're threatening them. Problem solved.
u/philip1201 [+1] (a day later)
Barely a single interaction with Muggle's by Wizards has ever gone successfully, and now they've to stage a kidnapping of high military officials who are likely currently all on constant survelliance and communication (when you know you can be impersonated the solution is not to give people a chance to impersonate).
Assuming you only kidnap only one person per cycle, and you're properly shielded, all kidnappings take place nearly simultaneously (each time-turned one can start seconds after the previous one is completed if you want to play it completely safe) and feature no knowledge passed on from future to past wizards.
weapons which are specifically known for their danger
You're saying that like it's all we know of them. Like they're some kind of mystical death machines.
and often are set so as not to be easily disarmed.
I wouldn't think this to be very relevant in ICBM design. But anyhoo, they're wizards. They can teleport things on touch, they can miniaturise, they can turn metal into wool. Not stuff bomb technicians really accounted for.
This might provide a risk in the most primitive bomb designs, like Little Boy, where critical mass is reached by simply sliding two pieces together. Modern plutonium bombs (allegedly) normally use explosives to compress the plutonium to supercritical density, and the explosives have to fire at once or else it is a dud. Fusion bombs typically use fission bomb primers, with similar difficulties in timing.
More abstractly, a military base would not want a couple of suicide bombers to be capable of infiltrating the base and just nuking it into oblivion by performing the same actions that someone who fails to deactivate the bomb would. You wouldn't even want a cruise missile blowing up a missile silo to trigger a nuclear reaction. Tampering isn't going to blow them up.
That might actually work just as well, assuming you can avoid bombardment, but it wasn't the victory condition.
u/ElimGarak [+1] (a day later)
Plan A: "Accio nuclear warhead" (n.b. do not use vital personnel when trying this out)
Umm... So, summon the hundreds of objects, over hundreds of miles, that weigh dozens of tonns, and are permanently attached to missiles that weigh hundreds of tonnes as well? Missiles that are stored under ground in closed silos, and are attached to their launchpads? You don't think that there would be a problem with this?
Also, what about the missiles in submarines? How would that work?
Plan B: kidnap military officials you know of, use time turner 1 hr into the past ...
This may almost work. Kind-of. To a degree. However, this plan still ignores some problems. Wizards would need to penetrate dozens of secure nuclear launch facilities, nearly simultaneously, and then do something with the huge devices weighing dozens of tonnes. And this ignores the problem with submarines. This further ignores the sheer number of conventional explosive storage facilities. And their size. And the number of bombs stored there.
Plan C: magical/technological gadget capable of long-term tracking of nuclear bombs that we should be able to figure out using HP canon
Huge leap in logic. Most wizards don't know what a "rocket" is and call it a "rocker". And think that muggles almost blew up the moon with one. And now they are going to develop a highly advanced nuclear material detection device, in a matter of days or at most weeks?
Plan D: "accio enriched plutonium". (nb: really use someone expendable this time).
Umm... Through bomb casings? And missile warheads? And the concrete walls? And submarines? And the water surrounding the submarines? All while keeping the stuff together, and not irradiating half the country while they are dragging the stuff to their location? And then survive the proximity of the highly radioactive material?
And that's just in a few minutes at my brain capacity.
The problem is that all of the suggestions you made have huge problems.
u/philip1201 [+1] (a day later)
My plans were very rough draft. They might be workable, or they might not. I agree plan B is probably the best bet; I don't know the limits of "accio", but they may be tested or known to wizards and/or people with better canon knowledge.
Wizards would need to penetrate dozens of secure nuclear launch facilities,
Use mind-reading to get the memories of locations out of captives, then teleport in. By "six degrees of Kevin bacon", you should probably be able to find someone who has physically been within ten yards of the current location of every nuclear bomb. Use technology and magic to prevent sensory overload, form kinetic barriers, become transparent (invisible, but not Hidden) to all senses, etc.
nearly simultaneously,
use mechanical watches if you have to. Though I don't see why you would need to be close.
and then do something with the huge devices weighing dozens of tonnes
This should be easy, and best left to people who know lots of spells. Miniaturisation which doesn't increase density might work. Transfiguration, creating technical faults, etc.
And this ignores the problem with submarines.
Since Hermione was able to teleport to a park she hadn't been in years, it is not necessary for a location to be perfectly as remembered: all the plants will contain different atoms, the trees have gotten fatter, etc.. I think it likely that you can just teleport to submarines using the same method as teleporting to physically fixed locations.
This further ignores the sheer number of conventional explosive storage facilities. And their size. And the number of bombs stored there.
The claim was that deactivating 400 nukes would be too hard. It evidently isn't. Deactivating tens of thousands of regular explosives is much more difficult, to the point that it might be easier to simply win the war completely in those six hours instead.
Huge leap in logic. Most wizards don't know what a "rocket" is and call it a "rocker". And think that muggles almost blew up the moon with one. And now they are going to develop a highly advanced nuclear material detection device, in a matter of days or at most weeks?
Did you just ignore the existence of Harry dementorfucking Potter? Half the point of the story is that Harry is providing solutions that takes even readers months to (fail to) solve.
The problem is that all of the suggestions you made have huge problems.
If you reject plans just because they have problems, you're not going to come up with plans. It's why brainstorming is a thing. System 1 is good at pattern recognition, but not good at logical reasoning: system 1 sees possibilities, but can't check them well against reality; for that you need conscious deliberation, which I hadn't done much myself with those plans.
u/ElimGarak [+1] (2 days later)
This should be easy, and best left to people who know lots of spells. Miniaturisation which doesn't increase density might work. Transfiguration, creating technical faults, etc.
None of which have been shown to work on objects of that size & mass.
I think it likely that you can just teleport to submarines using the same method as teleporting to physically fixed locations.
That's a huge jump in logic.
Deactivating tens of thousands of regular explosives is much more difficult, to the point that it might be easier to simply win the war completely in those six hours instead.
Bwa-ha-ha! Wizards winning a war against muggles. That's pretty funny. Let alone in 6 hours.
Did you just ignore the existence of Harry dementorfucking Potter? Half the point of the story is that Harry is providing solutions that takes even readers months to (fail to) solve.
Yes, because that's not how this works. You don't get to say "suddenly and conveniently they invented fantastic new devices that solved all their problems". Because that's not how stories work, because you have not provided any evidence, or even plausible suggestions.
If you reject plans just because they have problems, you're not going to come up with plans.
Just because you can brainstorm does not mean that you can solve the problems. Or that it even makes solving those problems possible.
u/philip1201 [+1] (2 days later)
None of which have been shown to work on objects of that size & mass.
That's a huge jump in logic.
Both of these would be easy to safely test in-universe, and I would expect positive returns, especially in fiction. The fact that some form of wizardry should be able to disable a nuclear bomb seems so obvious that I think you're being intentionally obtuse.
Bwa-ha-ha! Wizards winning a war against muggles. That's pretty funny. Let alone in 6 hours.
You're saying that like difficulty is something inherent to the problem, rather than a statement about your knowledge of it.
If you're not constrained by ethics, evacuate all wizards to Mars (we've got pictures), then transfigure up nuclear or antimatter bombs or tonnes of anthrax spores and drop them on Earth. Or imperius people into throwing their friends into concentration camps while continually making perfectly clear they're still their old selves except for being bound into servitude. Or Quirrel's zombie apocalypse thing, starting in as many cities as you can get people to cast the relevant inferius curse. Or just use time turners to ensure zero Muggle survivors in every violent encounter, perhaps with reprisals against relatives, though that wouldn't solve the problem in less than a week.
Following the Geneva conventions and staying on the side of Light is a lot harder. Maybe the winning move is just not to play; teleport to Mars, with the wizards who want to come with, leave the Muggles and stupidwizards be, then use magitech to colonise the solar system before the Muggles have interplanetary nuclear missiles. A magical version of the Soviet Dead Hand system would prevent government interference and arguably not be Dark, leaving only the nonanarchic hooligans, all of whom can be taken out with phoenixes, a magic-proof camera (or good memory), and time travel, or shields that block everything but magic. A lot of negotiation also fits in 6 hours, and since mutual cooperation is in mutual best interest, a solution might be found in that time too by a sufficiently clever arguer.
There are indubitably other methods.
Yes, because that's not how this works. You don't get to say "suddenly and conveniently they invented fantastic new devices that solved all their problems". Because that's not how stories work, because you have not provided any evidence, or even plausible suggestions.
Human patronus, partial transfiguration, dark mark, acorn light bomb, troll rock, etc.. They don't magically solve all problems, they magically solve specific problems. As an object that points to items within a specific class would (like the compass points to objects in the class of "humans who are [...]").
Strange that you would expect things which I merely don't know to be things I'm wrong about: why are you so confident that phoenix teleportation to submarines can't be a thing, or that there is no possible magic which can deactivate a nuclear bomb.
Just because you can brainstorm does not mean that you can solve the problems. Or that it even makes solving those problems possible.
So?
u/ElimGarak [+1] (2 days later)
Both of these would be easy to safely test in-universe, and I would expect positive returns, especially in fiction.
Actually, they would be very difficult to test properly without access to a nuclear missile in the first place. For once thing, even doing magic next to a nuke may cause it to go off as the magic interferes with the electronics. A single surge in the detonator and bye-bye wizard. Let alone the potential problems with radiation and strong electrical and magnetic fields in a missile silo.
The fact that some form of wizardry should be able to disable a nuclear bomb seems so obvious that I think you're being intentionally obtuse.
No, the fact that you believe that so strongly means that you identify with and believe in magic waaay too much. You automatically assume that magic is all-powerful and can do just about anything, without providing any evidence. I assume the opposite.
For example, in HPMOR we know quite well that there are strict limits on the size of a transfigured object. They are determined by the strength of a wizard, and this has been explicitly stated. I doubt that even Dumbles could transfigure an object of that mass and size. And he is just one wizard - how is he supposed to deal with all the warheads at once?
If you're not constrained by ethics, evacuate all wizards to Mars (we've got pictures), then transfigure up nuclear or antimatter bombs or tonnes of anthrax spores and drop them on Earth.
In other words you are talking about not wizards from the HPMOR universe, but some previously unstated group of infinitely powerful and omniscient beings. Irrelevant.
Or imperius people into throwing their friends into concentration camps while continually making perfectly clear they're still their old selves except for being bound into servitude.
Numbers, numbers, numbers. How many people can be imperioused at once? And for how long?
Or Quirrel's zombie apocalypse thing, starting in as many cities as you can get people to cast the relevant inferius curse.
Result - nuclear annihilation. Winner - none.
Or just use time turners to ensure zero Muggle survivors in every violent encounter, perhaps with reprisals against relatives, though that wouldn't solve the problem in less than a week.
LOL. Right. In other words, the wizards would act as terrorists, since they can't take on the muggles in a stand-up fight. And historically speaking, terrorists have won how many wars?
As an object that points to items within a specific class would (like the compass points to objects in the class of "humans who are [...]").
If such an object could be created easily, then the wizards would have an infinite amount of gold and materials, since they could use it to find anything they want, at any time, anywhere.
Strange that you would expect things which I merely don't know to be things I'm wrong about: why are you so confident that phoenix teleportation to submarines can't be a thing, or that there is no possible magic which can deactivate a nuclear bomb.
I am not certain - I am extremely skeptical in the absence of evidence of acts even remotely powerful enough. Without evidence you are just basing everything on faith.
Just because you can brainstorm does not mean that you can solve the problems. Or that it even makes solving those problems possible.
So?
So you have yet to come up with a viable plan that has a ghost of a chance of working. Since you can't come up with one you can't say "Harry will come up with it, he is smart!" - because that's not how debating works. And no, talking about brainstorming and suggesting unworkable ideas is not a viable debating tactic either.
u/philip1201 [+0] (2 days later)
Actually, they would be very difficult to test properly without access to a nuclear missile in the first place. For once thing, even doing magic next to a nuke may cause it to go off as the magic interferes with the electronics. A single surge in the detonator and bye-bye wizard. Let alone the potential problems with radiation and strong electrical and magnetic fields in a missile silo.
If nuclear missile designers are that idiotic, then just teleport a single unmanned magical item to the vicinity of the nuclear weapons and watch as every military base in the UK goes up in smoke.
But yeah, testing with a nuclear missile on one of the earlier loops might be a good idea, though most relevant stuff can be tested with merely large, complex pieces of machinery.
No, the fact that you believe that so strongly means that you identify with and believe in magic waaay too much. You automatically assume that magic is all-powerful and can do just about anything, without providing any evidence. I assume the opposite.
? I do expect magic should in principle be capable of anything of equivalent thermodynamic work as things already shown, like creating water out of thin air, or transfiguration. And that the HP world is rich in spells of this level, rather than just having the few spells that exist all be suspiciously plot-relevant.
Take Arania Exumai: It makes for a more sensible world if there are similar spells for many classes of animals, rather than Aragog and pals happening to be the one type of animal which has a convenient "bugger off" spell taught to second-year students.
I really don't get what you mean with "identifying with magic", though.
For example, in HPMOR we know quite well that there are strict limits on the size of a transfigured object. They are determined by the strength of a wizard, and this has been explicitly stated. I doubt that even Dumbles could transfigure an object of that mass and size.
Compartmentalisation: transfigure components, rather than the whole. Or get a crash course in timeless physics and go partial; it's what all the cool kids are doing.
If you're not constrained by ethics, evacuate all wizards to Mars (we've got pictures), then transfigure up nuclear or antimatter bombs or tonnes of anthrax spores and drop them on Earth.
In other words you are talking about not wizards from the HPMOR universe, but some previously unstated group of infinitely powerful and omniscient beings. Irrelevant.
Other than magic not working away from the earth (which seems to contradict the Pioneer plaque thing), there is no simple rule I can think of that makes teleportation to Australia possible, but not to Mars.
Other than the danger of radiation poisoning - which there really should be a shield for, considering there's a shield against physical objects - I see no reason why rock-to-plutonium would be an illegal transfiguration. Design basic Little Boy bomb, using rock instead of plutonium and lead instead of regular casing. Have the drop be on a (mechanical) timer rather than based on impact. Transfigure rock to plutonium. Teleport to drop location (under shield). Set timer. Teleport out. City goes boom. AFAIK there is no increase in magical effort for sustaining a transfiguration depending on distance, only depending on target size (a couple of kilograms).
Similar with anthrax: Transfigure a buttload of anthrax into a container that blows up to spread them over a large area but not kill them. Teleport in, drop container, set timer, teleport out.
This really isn't too difficult to think of for me, hence my incredulity at you denying it is possible.
Numbers, numbers, numbers. How many people can be imperioused at once? And for how long?
Arbitrarily many for arbitrarily long periods of time. Otherwise it wouldn't make much sense as a defense for death eaters.
Result - nuclear annihilation. Winner - none.
Except the wizards on Mars.
LOL. Right. In other words, the wizards would act as terrorists, since they can't take on the muggles in a stand-up fight. And historically speaking, terrorists have won how many wars?
Let's see. We have Rome, the Huns, Persia, the Mongols, Aztecs, I guess the inquisition should count towards a religious war in southern Europe, Turks, Israelites (according to their own mythology), Norse kingdoms, the Bacchus cult (possibly mythological), most successful modern criminal organisations, Saddam Hussein, Pol Pot, dozens of warlords in Africa, any banana republic dictator, etc.. The main failure mode for terrorists is that they attract exceptional attention from larger forces, especially when there's a Geneva treaty intended to force just that. Unfortunately, this is a war between the only two races on earth, so there's nobody to bail humanity out.
If such an object could be created easily, then the wizards would have an infinite amount of gold and materials, since they could use it to find anything they want, at any time, anywhere.
How does this not apply to any invention, anywhere? Or, more specifically, Harry's numerous one-week inventions? Wizards, like muggles, have the tendency to see humans as fundamentally different from the rest of the universe, which is simply wrong. There should be no reason (other than souls) why it is possible to invent a device that points at "Hermione" but not at "nuke 32-A"
I am not certain - I am extremely skeptical in the absence of evidence of acts even remotely powerful enough.
Powerful? What's the difference between teleporting to a point that is moving at 29.78±0.47 km/s relative to the sun and one that is traveling at 29.78±0.52 km/s relative to the sun?
Without evidence you are just basing everything on faith.
I would like to offer you a bet. I win if I get 2 heads or more in a sample of 100 coin flips. 90-10 odds. If, as you say, I am basing the >90% probability of me being right - for which I have absolutely zero evidence - on faith, and as you imply that doing so is wrong, then this deal ought to be in your favor. Choose wisely.
u/ElimGarak [+0] (3 days later)
You know what? Bored now. You have no idea how to debate properly, and your ideas are primarily crap. For example, summoning nuclear missiles, each up to 100 tonnes each. Through buildings and concrete silos. Or from underwater.
This latest post only underlines that - you just don't understand what you are talking about.
So, therefore, out.
u/RMcD94 [+0] (7 hours later)
When they were connecting up the children with blue lines, all I could think of would be the harder you make it to kill yourself, the more tough Quirrell can be.
Whereas if they all publicly lined themselves up in the middle of Trafalgar Square with muggles surrounding them and guns pointing at them then Quirrell would have a tough time perpetuating anything because Harry needs to rule the world with Muggles too.
That is the solution seems to be if one persons dies they all should die (or at least Harry).
Edit: Also I'm not sure if I'm naive, but I would hope that in a 1st world country people aren't that quick to vitriol. After seeing bodies of their own dead I would expect most people would decry the whole war not just be like "Eye for an eye", examples are surely 9/11. There wasn't even 95% support for the war after that, and that was way worse than this. Source, and in this case it's literally bodies of children after two days on both sides. I mean a nuke was launched within 24 hours of first contact (well Ministry contact), surely the vast majority of people are just reacting to this, and most people aren't even affected.
Someone should make a timeline of these events.
I'm a bit confused as to the scale of this, the way it seems to be written literally the whole country is rioting, and that's far worse than anything the wizards have done. Imports and exports grind to a halt, no more air travel or sea travel to or from the UK, the whole infrastructure breaks, people begin to starve, electricity stops, etc. If no one is going to work the economy just won't be functioning.
Again, I'm not really sure why the people of Glasgow would be rioting because an orphanage in Wales was burned. And the amount of deaths in the UK seems extremely small comparative to the population. Interesting that we haven't seen or heard of any effects due to the dementors wiping out 0.1% of the entire population.
u/ArisKatsaris [+2] Sidebar Contender (12 hours later)
And the amount of deaths in the UK seems extremely small comparative to the population. Interesting that we haven't seen or heard of any effects due to the dementors wiping out 0.1% of the entire population.
The dementors of UK had been destroyed already by Hermione (except the last one which was destroyed by Harry). UK doesn't have dementor-caused fatalities, unlike probably most other countries in the world.
u/RMcD94 [+1] (19 hours later)
Sorry I was referring to those other countries by that.
Edit: That is even though they're travelling between countries a lot, there's no mention of the international communities reaction to the dementors.
u/ElimGarak [+2] (14 hours later)
Whereas if they all publicly lined themselves up in the middle of Trafalgar Square with muggles surrounding them and guns pointing at them then Quirrell would have a tough time perpetuating anything because Harry needs to rule the world with Muggles too.
Exactly. My suggestion is that Hermione should have just teleported all the students to the UN headquarters in Geneva, and started demanding international mediation. But at least they moved the muggle attackers to the Hague.
Edit: Also I'm not sure if I'm naive, but I would hope that in a 1st world country people aren't that quick to vitriol.
Good point. It took months for Fox News and a bunch of other outlets to stir up enough support for a war. And that was an abstract war, in Iraq, one where the first Gulf war was quite successful, and that didn't touch anything.
Even though the danger here is more immediate, there are too few wizards to be that big of a deal. More people die in car crashes every day in UK than could die from wizards attacks. There would need to be a large publicity campaign and effort to get people to organize like this.