8.4 KiB
[Spiders] On North Korea
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Author: u/Rhamni Aspiring author*
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URL: https://www.reddit.com/r/rational/comments/3zpngz/spiders_on_north_korea/
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Score: 0
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Created: 2016-01-06T12:50:47
Post:
[removed]
Comments:
u/alexanderwales [+12] Time flies like an arrow (5 hours later)
Isn't this exactly the kind of threat where we expect rational characters to take unpleasant, expensive actions to prevent a magnitudes greater threat later down the road?
What are the values of the rational actors?
I mean, let's say that I'm a senator in the United States. The thing I care most about is getting re-elected, partly because I enjoy holding power and partly because I like being important. So North Korea (maybe) developed a hydrogen bomb. My question as a senator is, "How does this affect getting re-elected?"
Well, first off, I can't get re-elected if I'm dead, or if the United States ceases to exist as a functional nation. Can North Korea accomplish any of those things? Are they likely to? No. Their delivery systems aren't that good, and they only have a limited supply of bombs. So I'm probably safe. In fact, if North Korea were to launch an attack on American soil, it would probably be good for me, since re-election rates skyrocket during times of external threat. (I'm not a sociopath, so obviously I still don't want that to happen. This thought stays at the back of my mind instead of coming to the forefront.)
So assuming that North Korea doesn't actually attack, what's the best course of action for my goal of getting re-elected? If North Korea nukes Seoul, I might get called to task for not doing more. So I will say some things about sanctions and tough measures, or I might saber-rattle a bit. I might even mean what I say. But if the United States were to go to war with North Korea, that would shake things up. Maybe I could sit in the corner and twiddle my thumbs, prevaricating at every opportunity. At worst, I back the war and am then responsible for the inevitable quagmire.
Or I could be against the war from the outset. This only really hurts my chances of getting re-elected if North Korea launches some unconscionable attack. So I can take a weak position and say that the situation is complicated, which it is, and I can be pretty sure that this will remain true even if they attack or even if they push for war. My weak position will include sanctions against North Korea, humanitarian aid, and deniable spies (plus other intelligence gathering).
My plan doesn't involve paying extremely heavy costs to take care of the situation once and for all, because that's unlikely to get me re-elected.
(You might think that this is an overly cynical way of looking at politics, but people who don't make getting re-elected a priority don't tend to get re-elected, which means that by survival of the fittest, most congresscritters have a focus on re-election over good policy.)
u/Sailor_Vulcan [+6] Champion of Justice and Reason (an hour later)
Presumably, because if they do nuke another country they'll be nuked back. That's a strong incentive for someone to not use their own nukes. At least it would be for someone who was remotely intelligent or sane. I don't know how many dumb lunatics would have to be in office in North Korea to set off a nuke on someone, since I'm not familiar with how their government works. Fortunately, oppressive dictator does not necessarily equal dumb lunatic. And even if it does, they could still be smart/sane enough when it comes to their own self-preservation to NOT launch a nuke.
I agree that it is very dangerous though. But I'm not sure it's really quite as urgent as you seem to think it is. I would need to know a little more about North Korea and how its government works before I could even guess whether it puts the world in immediate danger of nuclear war or not. Of course, since it's nukes we're talking about it's still pretty urgent, of course. Scary stuff.
That being said, even if it were an immediate danger to the world, what could you do about it? Do you have military training? Any experience with politics or government? Being rational isn't always enough. Sometimes you need to actually have expertise in the specific relevant fields.
u/Rhamni [+1] Aspiring author (2 hours later)
Ah, I am of course not suggesting individuals take any action on their own. Only governments are equipped to influence something like this unless you happen to have exactly the right job/skills/resources/opportunity.
I don't think there is a high risk of a nuclear war, certainly not one that escalates to global. But nuclear weapons last a long time (if you have the technology to build/maintain them), and compared to how stern the international community has been with making sure Iran does not develop nuclear weapons, I think it's odd that the most powerful states haven't agreed to decapitate NK. Even completely ignoring the quality of life of most North Koreans, surely an oligarchy like China must have some people among its leaders who think having North Korea as an 'ally' does not outweigh having North Korea as a neighbour.
u/Izeinwinter [+4] (31 minutes later)
The seismic measurements say "about 10 kilotons". so most likely fission device + lies.
u/KerbalFactorioLeague [+2] (7 hours later)
It could be a hydrogen device that didn't ignite successfully as well
u/Sophronius [+3] The Need to Become Stronger (5 hours later)
Yea, that's... pretty worrisome. I think that people are not taking this stuff nearly seriously enough. It's a case of risk * potential damage = bad, even if the risk is small. And people tend to overestimate human rationality in these cases, I think. There have been so many cases in history where people do things that are batshit crazy, and it's not at all hard for a leader (who is seen as basically a god) to get the rest of the country's leadership to go along with it. I agree that this is the sort of situation for which "the end justifies the means" reasoning is very much justified.
And as for the spiders thing... if anything here gets mindkilled by the notion that North Korea having superweapons is a bad thing, then I just don't know anymore. (Though now that I think about it, I have actually heard people argue that it's only 'fair' that if the US gets to have nukes, then countries like Iran should be able to as well. Argh.)
u/alexanderwales [+4] Time flies like an arrow (7 hours later)
Though now that I think about it, I have actually heard people argue that it's only 'fair' that if the US gets to have nukes, then countries like Iran should be able to as well. Argh.
If one country has nukes and the other does not, then the nuclear country is free to attack the non-nuclear country through conventional means, while the non-nuclear country is not free to attack the nuclear country. This influences everything about their relations with one another. The non-nuclear country's only recourse for any chicanery is politics, which they'll be in a poor position on. It's really hard for me to see this as fair.
Now, I don't particularly care about fairness and I would rather keep the nuclear club as small as possible and heavily stacked with allies. But I can totally see where Iran is coming from.
u/Sophronius [+1] The Need to Become Stronger (21 hours later)
Yes, of course, I agree. That's totally reasonable.
But you can see why the argument "if we can destroy the world it's only fair if they can, too" is insane, even if it's technically true.
In fact, I think that discussions of politics would go much better if all value laden terms like "fairness" or "freedom" were just banned entirely. Man, I wish we had a subreddit for rational!politics with precisely that rule in place.
u/DCarrier [+2] (9 hours later)
I suggest we build some of those Monkeylords from Supreme Commander and invade with those. Then we'd have spiders on North Korea.
u/rhaps0dy4 [+2] (10 hours later)
I wonder how long North Korea will last. I did a quick internet search, and a defecting official is claiming that within 3 years Kim Jong Un's government will collapse [1]. Now, that doesn't seem very plausible, and even if it was, NK would stay.
Any of you have any idea and could make an educated guess?
[1] http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/12/asia/north-korea-defector-kim-power/