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seq2seq-time/notebooks/02.0-mike-RNN_Timeseries_Seq2Seq.py
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# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
# ---
# jupyter:
# jupytext:
# formats: ipynb,py:light
# text_representation:
# extension: .py
# format_name: light
# format_version: '1.5'
# jupytext_version: 1.6.0
# kernelspec:
# display_name: seq2seq-time
# language: python
# name: seq2seq-time
# ---
# # Sequence to Sequence Models for Timeseries Regression
#
#
# In this notebook we are going to tackle a harder problem:
# - predicting the future on a timeseries
# - using an LSTM
# - with rough uncertainty (uncalibrated)
# - outputing sequence of predictions
#
# <img src="../reports/figures/Seq2Seq for regression.png" />
#
#
# https://medium.com/@boitemailjeanmid/smart-meters-in-london-part1-description-and-first-insights-jean-michel-d-db97af2de71b
#
# OPTIONAL: Load the "autoreload" extension so that code can change. But blacklist large modules
# %load_ext autoreload
# %autoreload 2
# %aimport -pandas
# %aimport -torch
# %aimport -numpy
# %aimport -matplotlib
# %aimport -dask
# %aimport -tqdm
# %matplotlib inline
# +
# Imports
import torch
from torch import nn, optim
from torch.nn import functional as F
from torch.autograd import Variable
import torch
import torch.utils.data
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = (12.0, 3.0)
plt.style.use('ggplot')
from pathlib import Path
from tqdm.auto import tqdm
import pytorch_lightning as pl
# -
from seq2seq_time.data.dataset import Seq2SeqDataSet, Seq2SeqDataSets
from seq2seq_time.predict import predict
import logging, sys
# logging.basicConfig(stream=sys.stdout, level=logging.INFO)
# ## Parameters
# +
device = "cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu"
print(f'using {device}')
columns_target=['energy(kWh/hh)']
window_past = 48*2
window_future = 48*2
batch_size = 256
num_workers = 5
freq = '30T'
max_rows = 2e5
# -
# ## Load data
# +
def get_smartmeter_df(indir=Path('../data/raw/smart-meters-in-london'), max_files=1):
"""
Data loading and cleanding is always messy, so understand this code is optional.
"""
# Load csv files
csv_files = sorted((indir/'halfhourly_dataset').glob('*.csv'))[:max_files]
# concatendate them
df = pd.concat([pd.read_csv(f, parse_dates=[1], na_values=['Null']) for f in csv_files])
# Add ACORN categories
df_households = pd.read_csv(indir/'informations_households.csv')
df_households = df_households[['LCLid', 'stdorToU', 'Acorn_grouped']]
df = pd.merge(df, df_households, on='LCLid')
df = df.sort_values(['tstp', 'LCLid'])
df = df.set_index('tstp')
# Drop nan and 0's
df = df[df['energy(kWh/hh)']!=0]
df = df.dropna()
# Add time features
time = df.index.to_series()
df["month"] = time.dt.month
df['day'] = time.dt.day
df['week'] = time.dt.week
df['hour'] = time.dt.hour
df['minute'] = time.dt.minute
df['dayofweek'] = time.dt.dayofweek
# Load weather data
df_weather = pd.read_csv(indir/'weather_hourly_darksky.csv', parse_dates=[3])
use_cols = ['visibility', 'windBearing', 'temperature', 'time', 'dewPoint',
'pressure', 'apparentTemperature', 'windSpeed',
'humidity']
df_weather = df_weather[use_cols].set_index('time')
df_weather = df_weather.resample(freq).first().ffill() # Resample to match energy data
# Join weather and energy data
df = pd.merge(df, df_weather, how='inner', left_index=True, right_index=True, sort=True)
# Holidays
df_hols = pd.read_csv(indir/'uk_bank_holidays.csv', parse_dates=[0])
holidays = set(df_hols['Bank holidays'].dt.round('D'))
def is_holiday(dt):
return dt in holidays
days = df.index.floor('D')
holiday_mapping = days.unique().to_series().apply(is_holiday).astype(int).to_dict()
df['holiday'] = days.to_series().map(holiday_mapping).values
# sort
df = df.reset_index().sort_values(['LCLid', 'index']).set_index('index')
df.index.name = 'Date'
return df
# -
# Our dataset is the london smartmeter data. But at half hour intervals
# +
df = get_smartmeter_df()
# # Just get the first one for now
# dfs = list(dfs)
# # df = df.resample(freq).first().dropna() # Where empty we will backfill, this will respect causality, and mostly maintain the mean
df = df.tail(int(max_rows)).copy() # Just use last X rows
# df = pd.concat(dfs[:6], 0)
# # df = dfs[0]
df.LCLid.value_counts()
# -
# ### Plot/explore
df
# +
import holoviews as hv
from holoviews import opts
from holoviews.plotting.links import RangeToolLink
import datashader as ds
from holoviews.operation.datashader import datashade, shade, dynspread, rasterize
from holoviews.operation import decimate
hv.extension('bokeh')
def house_curve(Name=None):
if isinstance(Name, int):
name = df.LCLid.unique()[Name]
d = df[df.LCLid == Name]
d_curve = hv.Curve(d, 'Date', 'energy(kWh/hh)', label=Name)
return d_curve
dmap = hv.DynamicMap(house_curve, kdims=['Name'])
dmap = dmap.redim.values(Name=list(df.LCLid.unique()))
dynspread(datashade(dmap).opts(width=800,
height=300,
tools=['xwheel_zoom', 'pan'],
active_tools=['xwheel_zoom', 'pan'],
default_tools=['reset', 'save', 'hover']
))
# -
# ### Profiling
# +
# from pandas_profiling import ProfileReport
# profile = ProfileReport(df, title="Pandas Profiling Report", minimal=True)
# profile
# -
# ### Norm
df.describe()
# +
import sklearn
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler, OrdinalEncoder
from sklearn_pandas import DataFrameMapper
columns_input_numeric = list(df.drop(columns=columns_target)._get_numeric_data().columns)
columns_categorical = list(set(df.columns)-set(columns_input_numeric)-set(columns_target))
output_scalers = [([n], StandardScaler()) for n in columns_target]
transformers=output_scalers + \
[([n], StandardScaler()) for n in columns_input_numeric] + \
[([n], OrdinalEncoder()) for n in columns_categorical]
scaler = DataFrameMapper(transformers, df_out=True)
df_norm = scaler.fit_transform(df)
df_norm
# -
output_scaler = next(filter(lambda r:r[0][0] in columns_target, scaler.features))[-1]
output_scaler
# +
# split data, with the test in the future
d0 =df_norm.index.min()
d1 = df_norm.index.max()
split_time = d0+(d1-d0)*0.8
split_time = split_time.round('1D')
print(split_time)
df_train = df_norm.groupby('LCLid').apply(lambda d:d.loc[:split_time]).reset_index(level=0, drop=True)
df_test = df_norm.groupby('LCLid').apply(lambda d:d.loc[split_time:]).reset_index(level=0, drop=True)
# df_test
# -
# Show split
df_train['energy(kWh/hh)'].plot(label='train')
df_test['energy(kWh/hh)'].plot(label='test')
plt.ylabel('energy(kWh/hh)')
plt.legend()
# ### Dataset
# These are the columns that we wont know in the future
# We need to blank them out in x_future
columns_blank=['visibility',
'windBearing', 'temperature', 'dewPoint', 'pressure',
'apparentTemperature', 'windSpeed', 'humidity']
df_trains = [d.resample(freq).first().ffill().dropna() for _,d in df_train.groupby('LCLid')]
df_tests = [d.resample(freq).first().ffill().dropna() for _,d in df_test.groupby('LCLid')]
ds_train = Seq2SeqDataSets(df_trains,
window_past=window_past,
window_future=window_future,
columns_blank=columns_blank)
ds_test = Seq2SeqDataSets(df_tests,
window_past=window_past,
window_future=window_future,
columns_blank=columns_blank)
print(ds_train)
print(ds_test)
# we can treat it like an array
ds_train[0]
len(ds_train)
ds_train[-1]
# +
# We can get rows
x_past, y_past, x_future, y_future = ds_train.get_rows(10)
# Plot one instance, this is what the model sees
y_past['energy(kWh/hh)'].plot(label='past')
y_future['energy(kWh/hh)'].plot(ax=plt.gca(), label='future')
plt.legend()
plt.ylabel('energy(kWh/hh)')
# Notice we've added on two new columns tsp (time since present) and is_past
x_past.tail()
# -
# Notice we've hidden some future columns to prevent cheating
x_future.tail()
# ## Plot helpers
from seq2seq_time.models.lstm_seq2seq import LSTMSeq2Seq
from seq2seq_time.models.lstm import LSTM
from seq2seq_time.models.baseline import BaselineLast
from seq2seq_time.models.transformer import Transformer
from seq2seq_time.models.transformer_seq2seq import TransformerSeq2Seq
# ## Plots
# +
def plot_prediction(ds_preds, i):
"""Plot a prediction into the future, at a single point in time."""
d = ds_preds.isel(t_source=i)
# Get arrays
xf = d.t_target
yp = d.y_pred
s = d.y_pred_std
yt = d.y_true
now = d.t_source.squeeze()
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 4))
plt.scatter(xf, yt, label='true', c='k', s=6)
ylim = plt.ylim()
# plot prediction
plt.fill_between(xf, yp-2*s, yp+2*s, alpha=0.25,
facecolor="b",
interpolate=True,
label="2 std",)
plt.plot(xf, yp, label='pred', c='b')
# plot true
plt.scatter(
d.t_past,
d.y_past,
c='k',
s=6
)
# plot a red line for now
plt.vlines(x=now, ymin=0, ymax=1, label='now', color='r')
plt.ylim(*ylim)
now=pd.Timestamp(now.values)
plt.title(f'Prediction NLL={d.nll.mean().item():2.2g}')
plt.xlabel(f'{now.date()}')
plt.ylabel('energy(kWh/hh)')
plt.legend()
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.show()
def plot_performance(ds_preds, full=False):
"""Multiple plots using xr_preds"""
plot_prediction(ds_preds, 24)
plot_prediction(ds_preds, 480)
ds_preds.mean('t_source').plot.scatter('t_ahead_hours', 'nll') # Mean over all predictions
n = len(ds_preds.t_source)
plt.ylabel('Negative Log Likelihood (lower is better)')
plt.xlabel('Hours ahead')
plt.title(f'NLL vs time ahead (no. samples={n})')
plt.show()
# Make a plot of the NLL over time. Does this solution get worse with time?
if full:
d = ds_preds.mean('t_ahead').groupby('t_source').mean().plot.scatter('t_source', 'nll')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.title('NLL over source time (lower is better)')
plt.show()
# A scatter plot is easy with xarray
if full:
plt.figure(figsize=(5, 5))
ds_preds.plot.scatter('y_true', 'y_pred', s=.01)
plt.show()
print(f'mean_NLL {ds_preds.nll.mean().item():2.2f}')
# -
def plot_hist(trainer):
try:
df_hist = pd.read_csv(trainer.logger.experiment.metrics_file_path)
df_hist['epoch'] = df_hist['epoch'].ffill()
df_histe = df_hist.set_index('epoch').groupby('epoch').mean()
if len(df_histe)>1:
df_histe[['loss/train', 'loss/val']].plot(title='history')
return df_histe
except Exception:
pass
# ## Lightning
# +
import pytorch_lightning as pl
class PL_MODEL(pl.LightningModule):
def __init__(self, model, lr=3e-4, patience=2):
super().__init__()
self._model = model
self.lr = lr
self.patience = patience
def forward(self, x_past, y_past, x_future, y_future=None):
"""Eval/Predict"""
y_dist = self._model(x_past, y_past, x_future)
return y_dist
def training_step(self, batch, batch_idx, phase='train'):
x_past, y_past, x_future, y_future = batch
y_dist = self.forward(*batch)
loss = -y_dist.log_prob(y_future).mean()
self.log_dict({f'loss/{phase}':loss})
return loss
def validation_step(self, batch, batch_idx):
return self.training_step(batch, batch_idx, phase='val')
def configure_optimizers(self):
optim = torch.optim.Adam(self.parameters(), lr=self.lr)
scheduler = torch.optim.lr_scheduler.ReduceLROnPlateau(
optim,
patience=self.patience,
verbose=True,
min_lr=1e-7,
)
return {'optimizer': optim, 'lr_scheduler': scheduler, 'monitor': 'loss/val'}
# -
# # Run
from torch.utils.data import DataLoader
from pytorch_lightning.loggers import CSVLogger
from pl_bolts.callbacks import PrintTableMetricsCallback
from pytorch_lightning.callbacks.early_stopping import EarlyStopping
# +
# Init data
x_past, y_past, x_future, y_future = ds_train.get_rows(10)
input_size = x_past.shape[-1]
output_size = y_future.shape[-1]
dl_train = DataLoader(ds_train,
batch_size=batch_size,
shuffle=True,
pin_memory=num_workers==0,
num_workers=num_workers)
dl_test = DataLoader(ds_test, batch_size=batch_size, num_workers=num_workers)
# -
# Baseline model
pt_model = BaselineLast()
model = PL_MODEL(pt_model).to(device)
trainer = pl.Trainer(gpus=1,
max_epochs=1,
limit_train_batches=0.01,
logger=CSVLogger("logs",
name=type(pt_model).__name__),
)
trainer.fit(model, dl_train, dl_test)
print(plot_hist(trainer))
ds_preds = predict(model.to(device), ds_test.datasets[0], batch_size, device=device, scaler=output_scaler)
print(f'baseline nll: {ds_preds.nll.mean().item():2.2g}')
models = [
# BaselineLast(),
LSTM(input_size,
output_size,
hidden_size=80,
lstm_layers=3,
lstm_dropout=0.3),
Transformer(input_size,
output_size,
attention_dropout=0.3,
nhead=8,
nlayers=6,
hidden_size=64),
LSTMSeq2Seq(input_size,
output_size,
hidden_size=64,
lstm_layers=2,
lstm_dropout=0.25),
TransformerSeq2Seq(input_size,
output_size,
hidden_size=64,
nhead=8,
nlayers=4,
attention_dropout=0.3),
# Transformer(input_size,
# output_size,
# attention_dropout=0.2,
# nhead=8,
# nlayers=6,
# hidden_size=128),
# LSTM(input_size,
# output_size,
# hidden_size=128,
# lstm_layers=3,
# lstm_dropout=0.3),
]
for pt_model in models:
name = type(pt_model).__name__
print(name)
# Wrap in lightning
patience = 2
model = PL_MODEL(pt_model, patience=patience, lr=3e-4).to(device)
# Trainer
trainer = pl.Trainer(gpus=1,
min_epochs=1,
max_epochs=10,
amp_level='O1',
precision=16,
gradient_clip_val=0.5,
logger=CSVLogger("logs",
name=type(pt_model).__name__),
callbacks=[
EarlyStopping(monitor='loss/val', patience=patience*2),
PrintTableMetricsCallback()
],
)
# Train
trainer.fit(model, dl_train, dl_test)
# Performance
print(plot_hist(trainer))
ds_preds = predict(model.to(device),
ds_test.datasets[0],
batch_size,
device=device,
scaler=output_scaler)
plot_performance(ds_preds)
# # holoviews pred
import holoviews as hv
from holoviews import opts
# +
def plot_prediction_now(t_source):
"""Plot predictions with holoviews"""
# Let us pass in an int
if isinstance(t_source, int):
t_source = ds_preds.t_source[t_source].to_pandas()
d = ds_preds.sel(t_source=t_source)
# Sometimes there are duplicate time, take the first
if len(d.t_source.shape) and d.t_source.shape[0] > 0:
d = d.isel(t_source=0)
if len(d.t_source.shape) and d.t_source.shape[0] == 0:
return None
now = d.t_source.to_pandas()
# Plot true
x = np.concatenate([d.t_past, d.t_target])
yt = np.concatenate([d.y_past, d.y_true])
p = hv.Scatter({
'x': x,
'y': yt
}, label='true').opts(color='black', framewise=True)
# Get arrays
xf = d.t_target.values
yp = d.y_pred
s = d.y_pred_std
p *= hv.Curve({
'x': xf,
'y': yp
}, label='pred').opts(color='blue')
p *= hv.Area((xf, yp - 2 * s, yp + 2 * s),
vdims=['y', 'y2'],
label='2*std').opts(alpha=0.5, line_width=0)
# plot now line
p *= hv.VLine(now, label='now').opts(color='red')
return p.opts(title=f'Prediction at {now}. NLL={d.nll.mean().item():2.2f}')
dmap_pred = (hv.DynamicMap(plot_prediction_now, kdims=['t_source'])
.redim.values(t_source=ds_preds.t_source.to_pandas())
.opts(width=800,
height=300,
))
dmap_pred
# +
def plot_predictions_vs_time(it_ahead):
"""Plot predictions vs time with holoviews"""
d = ds_preds.isel(t_ahead=it_ahead).groupby('t_source').first()
p = hv.Scatter({
'x': d.t_source,
'y': d.y_true
}, label='true').opts(color='black')
# Get arrays
xf = d.t_source.values
yp = d.y_pred
s = d.y_pred_std
p *= hv.Curve({
'x': xf,
'y': yp
}, label='pred').opts(color='blue')
p *= hv.Area((xf, yp - 2 * s, yp + 2 * s),
vdims=['y', 'y2'],
label='2*std').opts(alpha=0.5, line_width=0)
return p.opts(title=f'Prediction at {it_ahead * pd.Timedelta(freq)} ahead. NLL={d.nll.mean().item():2.2f}')
dmap_preds = (hv.DynamicMap(plot_predictions_vs_time, kdims=['it_ahead'])
.redim.values(it_ahead=range(ds_preds.t_ahead.shape[0]))
.opts(width=800,
height=300,
))
dmap_preds
# plot_prediction2(10).opts(width=800)
# -
d = ds_preds.mean('t_source')['nll'].groupby('t_ahead_hours').mean()
nll_vs_tahead = hv.Curve((d.t_ahead_hours, d)).redim(x='hours ahead', y='nll').opts(width=800)
nll_vs_tahead
d = ds_preds.mean('t_ahead')['nll'].groupby('t_source').mean()
nll_vs_time = hv.Curve(d).opts(width=800)
nll_vs_time
true_vs_pred = hv.Scatter((ds_preds.y_true, ds_preds.y_pred))
dynspread(datashade(true_vs_pred))
# # Summarize experiments
# # LR finder
# +
# Run learning rate finder
lr_finder = trainer.tuner.lr_find(model)
# Results can be found in
lr_finder.results
# Plot with
fig = lr_finder.plot(suggest=True)
fig.show()
# Pick point based on plot, or get suggestion
new_lr = lr_finder.suggestion()
# -
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