revise section 2 (alignment niches), section 5 land mechanism, departure fix; add hero

anz-2040.md

@@ -1,9 +1,11 @@
 # ANZ 2040: the decisions we still get to make
 <!-- Rewritten from the evidence base by Codex, 2026-07-11. Probabilities are ours, conditional on rapid AI progress making the 2029 decision matter. -->
 
-What can Australia and New Zealand actually decide if AI becomes much more powerful over the next decade?
+<figure class="hero"><img src="hero.png" alt="Australia and New Zealand navigating a narrow path between loss of human control to misaligned AI and concentrated human control, with shared human control through plural governance at the centre."></figure>
 
-We start from the excellent [AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com), which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for Australia and New Zealand, and what we could still do ourselves.
+What can Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) actually decide if AI becomes much more powerful over the next decade?
+
+We start from the excellent [AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com), which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves.
 
 The probabilities below assume rapid AI progress. We leave aside the roughly 35% chance that progress plateaus first.
 
@@ -11,49 +13,107 @@ We don't get to choose whether the United States and China race, slow down, or m
 
 [![ANZ 2040: choices and possible futures](tree.svg)](tree.svg)
 
-## What Australia and New Zealand can do<sup title="ANZ-specific extrapolations from the cited scenarios">*</sup>
+## What ANZ can do<sup title="ANZ-specific extrapolations from the cited scenarios">*</sup>
 
 ### 1. Prepare before it looks urgent (2026-28)
 
-The later choices need ordinary government machinery: royalty laws, approved land, a way to pay a dividend, biosecurity capacity, and working relationships with other middle powers. None of this requires believing one precise AI forecast. It is cheap compared with discovering in 2029 that the legal and diplomatic work takes five years.
+The later choices need ordinary government machinery: royalty laws, approved sites, a way to pay a dividend, biosecurity capacity, and working relationships with other middle powers. None of this requires believing one precise AI forecast. It is cheap compared with discovering in 2029 that the legal and diplomatic work takes five years.
 
-Biosecurity is the clearest case. AI 2040 proposes "massive investments into biosecurity and other measures to improve the resilience of the world," but does not assign the work to anyone. New Zealand already runs a serious agricultural biosecurity system. This is a useful thing for it to get unusually good at. <!-- local evidence: how-plan-a-solves-our-5-biggest-problems.md:69; faq.md:94 -->
+AI 2040 does not say who should do this work:
+
+> "In case access limitations fail, Plan A involves massive investments into biosecurity and other measures to improve the resilience of the world."
+>
+> AI Futures Project, [How Plan A solves our 5 biggest problems](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/how-plan-a-solves-our-5-biggest-problems) <!-- local evidence: how-plan-a-solves-our-5-biggest-problems.md:71 -->
+
+ANZ could fund stricter border biosecurity, including capacity for week-long airport quarantine during high-risk periods and privacy-preserving contact tracing.
 
 ### 2. Train the people the treaty needs (2026-29)
 
-Australia and New Zealand can contribute people even when they cannot contribute frontier models. AI 2040 allocates only 1% of its safety budget to studying model character, meaning persistent behavioural tendencies or "personas+propensities." It says almost nothing about activation steering, which changes behaviour by intervening on a model's internal activity, or assistance games, which train an AI to infer what a person wants through cooperation. It does call truth-seeking AI and public forecasting a priority. Australia and New Zealand could specialise in those areas, as well as evaluations, treaty verification, biosecurity, and cyber work through the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. ([Alignment roadmap](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/alignment-roadmap), [AI for epistemics](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/ai-for-epistemics)) <!-- local evidence: alignment-roadmap.md:216; ai-for-epistemics.md:41 -->
+ANZ cannot outspend frontier powers on models. It could outspend larger allies in a few overlooked areas that the treaty will need. In its proposed division of technical safety work near the end of the preparation phase, AI 2040 allocates:
+
+> "1% generally study AI personas+propensities and how this is shaped by training"
+>
+> AI Futures Project, [Alignment roadmap](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/alignment-roadmap) <!-- local evidence: alignment-roadmap.md:218 -->
+
+It also proposes:
+
+> "Automated research assistants and forecasters. AIs could enable a broad range of actors to have access to high-quality, labor intensive research and forecasts. It’s important that these be as truth-seeking as possible, rather than sycophantic."
+>
+> AI Futures Project, [AI for epistemics](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/ai-for-epistemics) <!-- local evidence: ai-for-epistemics.md:217 -->
+
+AI 2040 does not assign these roles to ANZ. Our candidates are alignment steering, cultural-alignment evaluations, industrial cyber and hacking evaluations, and locked-down border biosecurity. Treaty verification would give some of the same researchers a role in the deal itself.
 
 ### 3. Ask for terms before signing (2029)
 
-Australia is named among the countries that join the deal. New Zealand is not mentioned in any of the 18 supplements we checked. Once inside, leaving could mean sanctions, cyberattack, or war. The realistic decision is therefore what to ask for before signing: hosted data centres, a strategic chip reserve, verification seats, equity in AI companies, and durable access rather than a revocable API account. <!-- local evidence: verification-plan.md:401; deal-decline.md:783 -->
+Australia is named among the countries that join the deal. New Zealand is not mentioned in any of the 18 supplements we checked. AI 2040 recommends warning countries that leaving would bring heavy sanctions, cyberattacks, and perhaps war. <!-- local evidence: verification-plan.md:401; deal-decline.md:783 -->
 
-Scott Alexander's summary is unusually blunt. Observer countries follow the rules in return for data centres, AI access, and a share of future wealth, even though the great powers don't strictly need to offer it. That makes accession our best bargaining moment. Signing the standard form gives it away. ([Introducing Plan A](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-plan-a))
+Scott Alexander describes what observer countries are offered:
+
+> "(at some point the US and China will loop all the other countries into this regulatory regime as some kind of sort-of-but-not-really-voting observers; they agree to follow the rules in exchange for shared benefits, including data centers on their territory, access to the AIs, and a share of future AI-generated wealth. This isn't strictly necessary, because no other country really has the ability to do much with AI, but it's a nice gesture for our utopian scenario)"
+>
+> Scott Alexander, [Introducing Plan A](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-plan-a)
+
+That offer is why accession is our best bargaining moment. Before signing, ask for hosted data centres, a strategic chip reserve, verification seats, equity in AI companies, and durable access rather than a revocable API account.
 
 ### 4. Host allied compute (2030-32)
 
-AI 2040 moves advanced chip fabs and robot production into special economic zones that can be destroyed if the deal breaks. The zones are meant to sit near an ocean or an adversarial power, and the robot economy expands inside them until it is as large as today's human economy. North-west Australia fits those criteria and sits above much of the ore the machines would consume. ([Deal decline](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/deal-decline), [economics](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a)) <!-- local evidence: deal-decline.md:872; economics-of-plan-a.md:439 -->
+AI 2040 proposes:
 
-Hosting creates exposure as well as income. The same cluster can be a target, collateral for the treaty, and leverage against being cut off. Tom Davidson makes the mechanism explicit: if the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres on their territory. A kill switch negotiated at accession is leverage. A foreign cluster accepted without access rights is just exposure. ([Davidson 2026](https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting))
+> "all of the AI-relevant fabs in the world are moved to destroyable special economic zones [...] located either on the ocean or nearby adversarial superpowers"
+>
+> AI Futures Project, [Deal decline](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/deal-decline) <!-- local evidence: deal-decline.md:872 -->
 
-There is also a smaller trusted-vault option. Australia could host cold-storage model weights, treaty verification equipment, or monitoring linked to Pine Gap without hosting the whole robot economy. Geologically stable ground and Five Eyes trust make this the lowest-volume version of the policy.
+The robot economy expands inside these zones until it is as large as today's human economy. Our proposal is that ANZ ask whether it could host one. ([Economics](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a)) <!-- local evidence: economics-of-plan-a.md:439 -->
+
+Data-centre hosting is a separate proposal. Davidson imagines a "chips for frontier access" agreement backed by kill switches:
+
+> "If the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres in response. It’s a way to lock in the deal."
+>
+> Tom Davidson, [How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?](https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting)
+
+ANZ gets AI access in return for hosting the cluster. If the US ends that access, ANZ can permanently disable the cluster. That makes both sides depend on the deal.
+
+Our smaller proposal is a trusted vault for cold-storage model weights or treaty verification equipment. This would not require hosting the robot economy.
 
 ### 5. Keep a public stake in the machine economy (2031-34)
 
-The US dividend in AI 2040 comes from compute permits. By 2035, the scenario sends 75% of the US permit share to US citizens. Australia and New Zealand cannot rely on that. Our dividend would need resource royalties, land taxes, and public equity held through the Future Fund and NZ Super. Those rules need to exist before cognitive labour becomes cheap and wage earners lose their bargaining power. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a)) <!-- local evidence: economics-of-plan-a.md:368 -->then
+AI 2040 funds its US dividend from AI-hardware and robot permits:
 
-Who owns the rents matters more than the size of the boom. The same ore and land can support a public dividend or a few mining dynasties. Leicht and Ball warn that selling a strategic firm can look like an unexpected windfall while giving up the country's "ticket guaranteeing their home country's stake in the AI economy." In a rapid takeoff, taking only cash is especially bad: the useful payment is equity, access, or ownership of productive assets. ([The Race Worth Winning](https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence)) <!-- local evidence: fai-race-worth-winning.md:1747-1762 -->
+> "In Plan A, most of the US permit revenue share (75% in 2035) is redistributed to the US population as a Citizen’s Dividend"
+>
+> AI Futures Project, [Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a) <!-- local evidence: economics-of-plan-a.md:368 -->
 
-Australia probably starts above the generic non-US country. Compulsory superannuation gives many households an existing claim on global capital, while mining gives governments a claim on inputs the robot economy needs. Neither is evenly shared by default. Superannuation gains follow existing balances and investment choices. Mining income reaches households only when royalties, taxes, public ownership, or transfers capture it. That is what separates the Dividend commonwealth from the Quarry economy. <!-- local evidence: fai-race-worth-winning.md:1925-1939 -->
+ANZ cannot count on that revenue. Our share would have to come from mineral and energy royalties, public equity held through the Future Fund and NZ Super, and ownership stakes negotiated in return for hosting allied compute. Those rules need to exist before cognitive labour becomes cheap and wage earners lose their bargaining power.
 
-The political claim is stronger, and more speculative. If governments no longer depend on wages or citizen labour, owners and automated security may stop needing broad consent. A legally entrenched citizen claim on public assets keeps ordinary people tied to the revenue stream and gives them something material to defend through democratic institutions. We are treating distribution as a constraint on domestic power, not merely as welfare.
+ANZ could route mining royalties and public equity through sovereign wealth funds, then pay part of the returns as a household dividend. Leicht and Ball warn middle powers against selling a domestic bottleneck firm that is:
+
+> "the ticket guaranteeing their home country’s stake in the AI economy"
+>
+> Leicht and Ball, [The Race Worth Winning](https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence) <!-- local evidence: fai-race-worth-winning.md:1747-1762 -->
+
+This supports retaining local ownership of strategic firms. Our separate proposal is to negotiate equity or access when ANZ hosts foreign compute.
+
+AI 2040 also explains why the dividend concerns political power:
+
+> "once AIs can do all the economically relevant tasks, governments and companies lose a strong incentive to provide for their citizens/employees"
+>
+> AI Futures Project, [How Plan A solves our 5 biggest problems](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/how-plan-a-solves-our-5-biggest-problems) <!-- local evidence: how-plan-a-solves-our-5-biggest-problems.md:63 -->
+
+A statutory dividend gives citizens a legal claim on public investment income that does not depend on their labour remaining economically useful.
 
 ### 6. Choose a side if the deal collapses (2030s)
 
-If the US-China deal declines, Australia's security guarantor and largest customer pull in opposite directions. Joining the US bloc keeps the alliance and loses trade. A concert with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK might bargain for access, but only if it was built before the crisis. Leicht and Ball's warning is that a coalition improvised late will be picked off "one by one." Trying to hedge returns us to someone else's empire by a slower route. Free Chinese open-weight models don't remove the dependency; a supplier earning nothing from us also loses nothing by cutting us off. ([The Race Worth Winning](https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence), [Davidson 2026](https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting))
+If the US-China AI deal breaks down, ANZ's US security and Chinese trade relationships pull in opposite directions. If the US then denies middle powers access to frontier AI, Davidson's alternative is:
+
+> "The only alternative that makes sense to me is *siding with China.*"
+>
+> Tom Davidson, [How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?](https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting)
+
+Joining the US bloc preserves the alliance but puts trade with China at risk. A concert with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK might bargain for access, but only if it was built before the crisis. Leicht and Ball warn that great powers can pick countries off by "offering rewards for defection one by one." ([The Race Worth Winning](https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence)) Downloaded Chinese open weights would remain available. Future models, updates, compute, and services could still be withheld.
 
 ## Where this could leave us<sup title="ANZ-specific extrapolations from the cited scenarios">*</sup>
 
-Doom and concentrated global power account for most of our probability. Australia and New Zealand only get the later choices if humanity keeps control and no single actor takes it all.
+Doom and concentrated control account for most of our probability. ANZ only gets the later choices if humanity keeps control and no single actor takes it all.
 
 ### I. Doom, about 50%
 
@@ -65,11 +125,11 @@ Yudkowsky and Soares state the doom case much more strongly than our estimate:
 >
 > Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares, [*If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies*](https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/eliezer-yudkowsky/if-anyone-builds-it-everyone-dies/9780316595667/)
 
-Once control is lost, Australia has no policy response left. The preparations above aim to improve the odds before that happens.
+Once control is lost, ANZ has no policy response left. The preparations above aim to improve the odds before that happens.
 
-### II. Someone else's empire, about 25%
+### II. Someone else's empire, about 5%
 
-The AI remains aligned, but control of that AI does not spread. A government, company, or person holds the decisive systems. Australia and New Zealand may be materially rich, especially while iron demand is high, but they live under rules set elsewhere.
+The AI remains aligned, but control of that AI does not spread. A government, company, or person holds the decisive systems. ANZ may be materially rich, especially while iron demand is high, but lives under rules set elsewhere.
 
 > "a tiny group of people, or possibly just a single individual, is effectively in control of the world’s only army of superintelligences"
 >
@@ -77,7 +137,7 @@ The AI remains aligned, but control of that AI does not spread. A government, co
 
 ### III. Dividend commonwealth
 
-We negotiated terms, captured resource and land rents, and built the dividend before wages collapsed. Households share in the through a payment that is better than other countries but worse the the superpowers.
+We negotiated terms, captured mineral and energy rents, and built the dividend before wages collapsed. Households receive more than the generic payment outside the US and China, but less than citizens of the superpowers.
 
 > "In Plan A, most of the US permit revenue share (75% in 2035) is redistributed to the US population as a Citizen’s Dividend, resulting in roughly $1M/yr per person in 2035 and around $10M/yr in 2040."
 >
@@ -85,7 +145,7 @@ We negotiated terms, captured resource and land rents, and built the dividend be
 
 ### IV. Quarry economy
 
-This is the drift outcome. The country exports what the robot economy needs, but captures none of the upside. <!-- local evidence: economics-of-plan-a.md:389 -->
+ANZ exports what the robot economy needs but never builds a public stake. Mining profits rise, but households receive no dividend. <!-- local evidence: economics-of-plan-a.md:389 -->
 
 > "As AI devalues human capital relative to physical and intangible assets, capital income consumes a growing proportion of national income. Elevated spending on luxury goods and a productivity-driven investment boom sustains elevated economic growth even as millions face unemployment and diminished purchasing power."
 >
@@ -95,19 +155,19 @@ The resource boom eventually expires or space mining becomes cheaper. A machine
 
 ### V. Allied compute host
 
-Australia accepts the data centres and robot zones, but only after securing access and ownership terms. Land, power, and Five Eyes trust become a stake in the machine economy. The price is physical exposure: the hosted clusters are managed as treaty collateral, and the treaty's wars become our own.
+ANZ accepts the data centres and robot zones, but only after securing access and ownership terms. Land, power, and Five Eyes trust become a stake in the machine economy. The price is physical exposure: the hosted clusters are managed as treaty collateral, and the treaty's wars become our own.
 
-> "If the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres in response. It's a way to lock in the deal."
+> "If the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres in response. It’s a way to lock in the deal."
 >
 > Tom Davidson, [How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?](https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting)
 
 ### VI. Garrison ally
 
-The deal collapses and Australia chooses the US bloc. We keep the security relationship and lose much of the Chinese market. Iron becomes a strategic allocation. This future is poorer and tenser than the dividend or hosting alternatives, but Australia still has a seat at the table.
+The deal collapses and ANZ chooses the US bloc. We keep the security relationship and lose much of the Chinese market. Australian iron becomes a strategic allocation. This future is poorer and tenser than the dividend or hosting alternatives, but ANZ still has a seat at the table.
 
 > "middle powers should help the US, and make sure they are rewarded with continued access to frontier AI and new technologies (including military tech)"
 >
-> "The only alternative that makes sense to me is siding with China."
+> "The only alternative that makes sense to me is *siding with China.*"
 >
 > Tom Davidson, [How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?](https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting) <!-- local evidence: davidson-middle-powers-plan.md:26-28 -->
 
@@ -121,15 +181,15 @@ AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down.
 
 ### VIII. Middle-power concert
 
-The deal declines, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds together. Australia and New Zealand pool their supply-chain and hosting leverage with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK. None could demand durable access alone. Together they may get terms and help write the rules.
+The US-China AI deal breaks down, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds together. ANZ pools its supply-chain and hosting leverage with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK. None could demand durable access alone. Together they may get terms and help write the rules.
 
 > "Coordination, done right, reassures partners that they can focus on their comparative advantage instead of pursuing full autarky; and it enables powers to see eye to eye with AI exporters instead of being picked off by great powers offering rewards for defection one by one."
 >
 > Leicht and Ball, [The Race Worth Winning](https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence) <!-- local evidence: fai-race-worth-winning.md:437-449 -->
 
-### IX. ~~Homegrown autocracy~~ free beer and rugby for life
+### IX. ~~Homegrown autocracy~~ free beer and rugby for life, about 30%
 
-This is the domestic version of the global power-grab risk. Cognitive wages collapse, public ownership never develops, and automated security removes the state's remaining practical dependence on citizens. No coup is required. Political leverage drains away with economic leverage.
+Here AI replaces most cognitive work. The government collects its revenue from AI companies rather than workers removing their leverage, while automated security makes protests and elections easier to ignore. Citizens lose both their income and their leverage over the state.
 
 > "AI could create a similar effect: if governments can generate massive revenue from taxing AI projects rather than citizens, heads of state may lose their economic incentive to ensure citizens prosper. This would weaken citizens’ power to resist coup and backsliding attempts."
 >
@@ -137,18 +197,20 @@ This is the domestic version of the global power-grab risk. Cognitive wages coll
 >
 > Davidson, Finnveden, and Hadshar, [AI-Enabled Coups](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power) <!-- local evidence: forethought-ai-enabled-coups.md:425-431 -->
 
-To illustrate the risk, here's what a fictional Australian citizen might have written in 2041:
+To illustrate the outcome, here's what a fictional Australian citizen might have written in 2041:
 
-> Luckily we completely dodged a coup and now have Benevolent Dictator for Life (BDFL) Gina Palmer to lead us through. Everyone is very happy, especially since the free beer, rugby, and netball are a great respite from our quickly shrinking population and ever more confusing global situation. - Joe Citizen, 2041
+> Luckily we completely dodged authoritarianism and now Benevolent Prime Minister for Life (BDFL) leads us through. Everyone is very happy, especially since the free beer, rugby, and netball are a great respite from our quickly shrinking population and the ever more confusing global situation. - Joe Citizen, 2041
 
 
 ## Where we depart from AI 2040
 
+AI 2040 gives Plan A a 72% chance of alignment and a 42% chance of a great future. It does not say what makes up the remaining 30%. We focus on dictatorship because of the risks laid out in Forethought's paper, [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power).
+
 AI 2040 models energy consumption rising about eight times by 2040 and notes that proven mineral reserves cover decades of current extraction, but it does not price the tonnage needed for a robot economy growing every 6-12 months. Coal, uranium, energy trade, and Australian mine capacity are outside its model. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a))
 
-We use its land estimates with the authors' warning that this is a "very rough model" they do not necessarily endorse. We also give model character and activation steering more weight than their roadmap does.
+AI 2040's proposed division of technical safety work near the end of its preparation phase allocates about 1% to model character. We propose that ANZ specialise in this and related evaluation research (section 2).
 
-AI 2040 does share some US wealth abroad, but very unevenly. In 2032 its American dividend starts at $45,000 while adults outside the US and China average $1,200. By 2035 the figures are about $1M and $10,000. Australia may do better than that generic non-US payment through superannuation and mining, but only if the gains are broadly owned. A rich national balance sheet can still leave the median household without economic leverage. ([AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root)) <!-- local evidence: main.md:553-557 -->
+AI 2040 does share some US wealth abroad, but very unevenly. In 2032 its American dividend starts at $45,000 while adults outside the US and China average $1,200. By 2035 the figures are about $1M and $10,000. ANZ may do better than that generic non-US payment through superannuation and mining, but only if the gains are broadly owned. A rich national balance sheet can still leave the median household without economic leverage. ([AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root)) <!-- local evidence: main.md:553-557 -->
 
 We leave out a trans-Tasman split and a separate Australian decision during US sabotage operations because neither changes the main choices above.
 
@@ -156,8 +218,8 @@ We leave out a trans-Tasman split and a separate Australian decision during US s
 
 This is built from the AI Futures Project's [AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com) scenario and supplements. Their caveat applies to our use of the numbers too: the economic model "plausibly contains bugs" and they do not trust its outputs to be accurate. The local source mirrors retain exact line references for auditing.
 
-Thanks also to the authors of related scenarios and the Australian policy people who joined a June 2026 scoping discussion.
+Thanks also to Rebecca Hawkins, Michael J. Kerrison, Tom Barber, and others in the AI 2027 group who joined a June 2026 scoping discussion.
 
-<small><sup>*</sup> The Australian and New Zealand decisions and futures are extrapolations from the cited work. A citation means we used that source, not that its authors endorse this scenario.</small>
+<small><sup>*</sup> The ANZ decisions and futures are extrapolations from the cited work. A citation means we used that source, not that its authors endorse this scenario.</small>
 
 The middle-power framing also draws on [AI 2027](https://ai-2027.com), [Europe 2031](https://europe2031.ai), Tom Davidson's [middle-power plan](https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting), Leicht and Ball's [The Race Worth Winning](https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence), and Scott Alexander's [Introducing Plan A](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-plan-a). Australian groundwork came from the [e61 Institute](https://e61.in), [Tech Policy Design Institute](https://techpolicy.au/aiagency), [ASPI](https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/data-centres-are-australias-chance-to-shape-ais-future/), and [Kate Chaney MP](https://www.katechaney.com.au/making_technology_safe).

data/tree.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
  "comment": "Claude: single source for tree.svg. Each item has a tier (row) and left-to-right order; two items per row max. `p` and edge flows record our probability mass conditional on the 2029 decision mattering. Display widths fit the text. The HTML build fails if an href no longer matches a prose heading.",
  "title": "Choose a path",
- "canvas": {"w": 560, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150},
+ "canvas": {"w": 640, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150},
  "kinds": {
   "global":  {"fill": "#e0e0e0", "stroke": "#888888"},
   "hazard":  {"fill": "#f4cccc", "stroke": "#990000"},
@@ -12,15 +12,14 @@
  "nodes": [
   {"id": "A",    "tier": 0, "order": 0, "kind": "robust",  "href": "#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28", "title": "1. Prepare early", "sub": "2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies"},
   {"id": "F",    "tier": 0, "order": 1, "kind": "robust",  "href": "#2-train-the-people-the-treaty-needs-2026-29", "title": "2. Build the people", "sub": "2026-29: safety testers, inspectors"},
-  {"id": "FORK", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global",  "href": "#what-australia-and-new-zealand-can-do", "title": "2029: the US chooses", "sub": "go-slow deal with China, or race?"},
+  {"id": "FORK", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global",  "href": "#what-anz-can-do", "title": "2029: the US chooses", "sub": "go-slow deal with China, or race?"},
   {"id": "VII",  "tier": 2, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.10, "href": "#vii-boring-decade-about-10", "title": "VII. Boring decade", "sub": "~10%"},
-  {"id": "AL",   "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "hazard",  "p": 0.90, "href": "#i-doom-about-50", "title": "RISK: AI escapes control", "sub": "~75% racing, ~25% in the deal"},
+  {"id": "AL",   "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "global",  "p": 0.90, "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "Does humanity keep control?", "sub": "~90%: AI progress continues"},
   {"id": "I",    "tier": 3, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.50, "href": "#i-doom-about-50", "title": "I. Doom", "sub": "~50%"},
-  {"id": "PC",   "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "hazard",  "p": 0.40, "href": "#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-25", "title": "RISK: power seized", "sub": "one actor holds the AI"},
-  {"id": "II",   "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.25, "href": "#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-25", "title": "II. Someone else's empire", "sub": "~25% — seized abroad"},
-  {"id": "HOME", "tier": 4, "order": 1, "kind": "hazard",  "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "RISK: power grabbed at home", "sub": "seized in our own country"},
+  {"id": "PC",   "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "global",  "p": 0.40, "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "Who holds the AI?", "sub": "~40%: human control retained"},
+  {"id": "II",   "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.05, "href": "#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-5", "title": "II. Someone else's empire", "sub": "~5% — seized abroad"},
   {"id": "B",    "tier": 5, "order": 0, "kind": "anz",     "href": "#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029", "title": "3. Sign, or set our price?", "sub": "the deal reaches us, 2029"},
-  {"id": "IX",   "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "IX. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "citizens stop being needed"},
+  {"id": "IX",   "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.30, "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life-about-30", "title": "IX. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "~30% — citizens stop being needed"},
   {"id": "E",    "tier": 6, "order": 0, "kind": "anz",     "href": "#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s", "title": "6. If the deal collapses", "sub": "US bloc, concert, or neutral?"},
   {"id": "C",    "tier": 6, "order": 1, "kind": "anz",     "href": "#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32", "title": "4. Host compute here?", "sub": "2030-32"},
   {"id": "VIII", "tier": 7, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#viii-middle-power-concert", "title": "VIII. Middle-power concert", "sub": ""},
@@ -37,17 +36,16 @@
   {"from": "FORK", "to": "AL",   "flow": 0.90, "label": "race / deal"},
   {"from": "AL",   "to": "I",    "flow": 0.50, "label": "control lost"},
   {"from": "AL",   "to": "PC",   "flow": 0.40, "label": "control kept"},
-  {"from": "PC",   "to": "II",   "flow": 0.24, "label": "seized abroad"},
-  {"from": "PC",   "to": "HOME", "flow": 0.05, "label": "seized at home"},
-  {"from": "PC",   "to": "B",    "flow": 0.11, "label": "power stays spread"},
-  {"from": "HOME", "to": "IX",   "flow": 0.05, "label": "no public stake"},
-  {"from": "B",    "to": "C",    "flow": 0.08, "label": "set our price"},
-  {"from": "B",    "to": "E",    "flow": 0.03, "label": "if deal collapses", "dashed": true},
-  {"from": "C",    "to": "V",    "flow": 0.04, "label": "host it"},
-  {"from": "C",    "to": "D",    "flow": 0.04, "label": "stay supplier"},
-  {"from": "E",    "to": "VIII", "flow": 0.015, "label": "concert"},
-  {"from": "E",    "to": "VI",   "flow": 0.015, "label": "US bloc"},
-  {"from": "D",    "to": "III",  "flow": 0.02, "label": "public stake"},
-  {"from": "D",    "to": "IV",   "flow": 0.02, "label": "no stake"}
+  {"from": "PC",   "to": "II",   "flow": 0.05, "label": "seized abroad"},
+  {"from": "PC",   "to": "IX",   "flow": 0.30, "label": "power grabbed at home"},
+  {"from": "PC",   "to": "B",    "flow": 0.05, "label": "power stays spread"},
+  {"from": "B",    "to": "C",    "flow": 0.035, "label": "set our price"},
+  {"from": "B",    "to": "E",    "flow": 0.015, "label": "if deal collapses", "dashed": true},
+  {"from": "C",    "to": "V",    "flow": 0.0175, "label": "host it"},
+  {"from": "C",    "to": "D",    "flow": 0.0175, "label": "stay supplier", "route": "outside-right"},
+  {"from": "E",    "to": "VIII", "flow": 0.0075, "label": "concert"},
+  {"from": "E",    "to": "VI",   "flow": 0.0075, "label": "US bloc", "route": "outside-left"},
+  {"from": "D",    "to": "III",  "flow": 0.00875, "label": "public stake"},
+  {"from": "D",    "to": "IV",   "flow": 0.00875, "label": "no stake"}
  ]
 }

index.html

@@ -10,6 +10,8 @@ html { font-size: 17px; }
 body { max-width: 42em; margin: 4rem auto; padding: 0 1.25rem;
   background: var(--bg); color: var(--fg);
   font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 1.55; }
+.hero { width: min(96vw, 1200px); margin: 1.4rem 50% 2rem; transform: translateX(-50%); }
+.hero img { width: 100%; height: auto; display: block; }
 h1,h2,h3 { font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.2; margin: 2.2rem 0 0.6rem; }
 h1 { font-size: 2rem; } h2 { font-size: 1.5rem; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--rule); padding-bottom: .2rem; }
 h3 { font-size: 1.2rem; color: #333; }
@@ -24,6 +26,10 @@ code { font-family: ui-monospace, Menlo, Consolas, monospace; font-size: .88em;
    stays a legible size (a wide canvas stretched to the column would shrink the text) */
 .tree { margin: 1.5rem auto; max-width: 560px; overflow-x: auto; }
 .tree svg { width: 100%; height: auto; display: block; }
+@media (max-width: 600px) {
+  body { margin-top: 2rem; }
+  .hero { width: 100vw; margin-top: 1rem; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; }
+}
 hr { border: none; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule); margin: 2.5rem 0; }
 footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
   color: var(--muted); font-size: .85rem; }
@@ -31,175 +37,218 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
 </head>
 <body>
 <h1 id="anz-2040-the-decisions-we-still-get-to-make">ANZ 2040: the decisions we still get to make</h1>
-<p>What can Australia and New Zealand actually decide if AI becomes much more powerful over the next decade?</p>
-<p>We start from the excellent <a href="https://ai-2040.com">AI 2040</a>, which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for Australia and New Zealand, and what we could still do ourselves.</p>
+<figure class="hero"><img src="hero.png" alt="Australia and New Zealand navigating a narrow path between loss of human control to misaligned AI and concentrated human control, with shared human control through plural governance at the centre."></figure>
+
+<p>What can Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) actually decide if AI becomes much more powerful over the next decade?</p>
+<p>We start from the excellent <a href="https://ai-2040.com">AI 2040</a>, which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves.</p>
 <p>The probabilities below assume rapid AI progress. We leave aside the roughly 35% chance that progress plateaus first.</p>
 <p>We don't get to choose whether the United States and China race, slow down, or make a deal. We don't get to choose whether a powerful AI remains under human control. But we do get a few choices about our position before those larger decisions are made. Some are cheap and useful across almost every future. The valuable later choices only exist if we prepare for them now.</p>
-<figure class="tree"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 560 1272" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="14">
-<rect width="560" height="1272" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="280" y="82" text-anchor="middle" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#111">Choose a path</text>
-<path d="M145,150 C145,180 280,180 280,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
-<path d="M426,150 C426,180 280,180 280,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
-<path d="M280,265 C280,294 157,294 157,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="2.6"/>
-<path d="M280,265 C280,294 381,294 381,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="23.4"/>
-<path d="M381,380 C381,410 179,410 179,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
-<path d="M381,380 C381,410 377,410 377,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="10.4"/>
-<path d="M377,495 C377,524 146,524 146,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="6.2"/>
-<path d="M377,495 C377,524 406,524 406,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.3"/>
-<path d="M377,495 C377,582 161,582 161,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="2.9"/>
-<path d="M406,610 C406,640 410,640 410,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.3"/>
-<path d="M161,725 C161,754 403,754 403,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="2.1"/>
-<path d="M161,725 C161,754 168,754 168,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0" stroke-dasharray="5 5"/>
-<path d="M403,840 C403,870 410,870 410,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M403,840 C403,927 377,927 377,1014" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M168,840 C168,870 165,870 165,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M168,840 C168,927 161,927 161,1014" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M377,1070 C377,1100 179,1100 179,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M377,1070 C377,1100 410,1100 410,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<rect x="194" y="280" width="50" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="219" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stalls</text>
-<rect x="289" y="280" width="83" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="330" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">race / deal</text>
-<rect x="235" y="396" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="280" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">control lost</text>
-<rect x="334" y="396" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="379" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">control kept</text>
-<rect x="214" y="510" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="262" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">seized abroad</text>
-<rect x="340" y="510" width="102" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="392" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">seized at home</text>
-<rect x="248" y="533" width="129" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="312" y="545" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">power stays spread</text>
-<rect x="354" y="626" width="109" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="408" y="638" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">no public stake</text>
-<rect x="234" y="740" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="282" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
-<rect x="378" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="406" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">host it</text>
-<rect x="347" y="878" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="395" y="890" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stay supplier</text>
-<rect x="138" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="167" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">concert</text>
-<rect x="138" y="878" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="166" y="890" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">US bloc</text>
-<rect x="234" y="1086" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="278" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">public stake</text>
-<rect x="362" y="1086" width="63" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="393" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">no stake</text>
+<figure class="tree"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 640 1272" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="14">
+<rect width="640" height="1272" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="320" y="82" text-anchor="middle" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#111">Choose a path</text>
+<path d="M185,150 C185,180 320,180 320,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
+<path d="M466,150 C466,180 320,180 320,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
+<path d="M320,265 C320,294 186,294 186,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="2.6"/>
+<path d="M320,265 C320,294 421,294 421,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="23.4"/>
+<path d="M421,380 C421,410 205,410 205,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
+<path d="M421,380 C421,410 417,410 417,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="10.4"/>
+<path d="M417,495 C417,524 320,524 320,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.3"/>
+<path d="M417,495 C417,582 450,582 450,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.8"/>
+<path d="M417,495 C417,582 191,582 191,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.3"/>
+<path d="M191,725 C191,754 443,754 443,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M191,725 C191,754 208,754 208,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0" stroke-dasharray="5 5"/>
+<path d="M443,840 C443,870 450,870 450,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M532,812 C587,812 587,1042 514,1042" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M208,840 C208,870 205,870 205,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M108,812 C63,812 63,1042 126,1042" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M417,1070 C417,1100 219,1100 219,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M417,1070 C417,1100 450,1100 450,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<rect x="228" y="280" width="50" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="253" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stalls</text>
+<rect x="329" y="280" width="83" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="370" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">race / deal</text>
+<rect x="268" y="396" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="313" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">control lost</text>
+<rect x="374" y="396" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="419" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">control kept</text>
+<rect x="321" y="510" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="368" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">seized abroad</text>
+<rect x="353" y="533" width="149" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="427" y="545" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">power grabbed at home</text>
+<rect x="285" y="533" width="129" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="349" y="545" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">power stays spread</text>
+<rect x="269" y="740" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="317" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
+<rect x="418" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="446" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">host it</text>
+<rect x="539" y="915" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="587" y="927" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stay supplier</text>
+<rect x="178" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="207" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">concert</text>
+<rect x="35" y="915" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="63" y="927" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">US bloc</text>
+<rect x="274" y="1086" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="318" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">public stake</text>
+<rect x="402" y="1086" width="63" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="433" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">no stake</text>
 <a href="#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28"><title>1. Prepare early — 2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies</title>
-<rect x="21" y="94" width="248" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="145" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">1. Prepare early</text>
-<text x="145" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies</text>
+<rect x="61" y="94" width="248" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="185" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">1. Prepare early</text>
+<text x="185" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#2-train-the-people-the-treaty-needs-2026-29"><title>2. Build the people — 2026-29: safety testers, inspectors</title>
-<rect x="313" y="94" width="226" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="426" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2. Build the people</text>
-<text x="426" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-29: safety testers, inspectors</text>
+<rect x="353" y="94" width="226" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="466" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2. Build the people</text>
+<text x="466" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-29: safety testers, inspectors</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#what-australia-and-new-zealand-can-do"><title>2029: the US chooses — go-slow deal with China, or race?</title>
-<rect x="173" y="209" width="214" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="280" y="234" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2029: the US chooses</text>
-<text x="280" y="250" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">go-slow deal with China, or race?</text>
+<a href="#what-anz-can-do"><title>2029: the US chooses — go-slow deal with China, or race?</title>
+<rect x="213" y="209" width="214" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="320" y="234" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2029: the US chooses</text>
+<text x="320" y="250" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">go-slow deal with China, or race?</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#vii-boring-decade-about-10"><title>VII. Boring decade — ~10%</title>
-<rect x="79" y="324" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="157" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VII. Boring decade</text>
-<text x="157" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~10%</text>
+<rect x="108" y="324" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="186" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VII. Boring decade</text>
+<text x="186" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~10%</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#i-doom-about-50"><title>RISK: AI escapes control — ~75% racing, ~25% in the deal</title>
-<rect x="280" y="324" width="201" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#990000" stroke-width="3.6"/>
-<text x="381" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">RISK: AI escapes control</text>
-<text x="381" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~75% racing, ~25% in the deal</text>
+<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>Does humanity keep control? — ~90%: AI progress continues</title>
+<rect x="309" y="324" width="223" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="421" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">Does humanity keep control?</text>
+<text x="421" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~90%: AI progress continues</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#i-doom-about-50"><title>I. Doom — ~50%</title>
-<rect x="104" y="439" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="179" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">I. Doom</text>
-<text x="179" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~50%</text>
+<rect x="130" y="439" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="205" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">I. Doom</text>
+<text x="205" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~50%</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-25"><title>RISK: power seized — one actor holds the AI</title>
-<rect x="298" y="439" width="157" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#990000" stroke-width="3.6"/>
-<text x="377" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">RISK: power seized</text>
-<text x="377" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">one actor holds the AI</text>
+<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>Who holds the AI? — ~40%: human control retained</title>
+<rect x="324" y="439" width="186" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="417" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">Who holds the AI?</text>
+<text x="417" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~40%: human control retained</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-25"><title>II. Someone else&#x27;s empire — ~25% — seized abroad</title>
-<rect x="42" y="554" width="208" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="146" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">II. Someone else&#x27;s empire</text>
-<text x="146" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~25% — seized abroad</text>
-</a>
-<a href="#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life"><title>RISK: power grabbed at home — seized in our own country</title>
-<rect x="295" y="554" width="223" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#990000" stroke-width="3.6"/>
-<text x="406" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">RISK: power grabbed at home</text>
-<text x="406" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">seized in our own country</text>
+<a href="#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-5"><title>II. Someone else&#x27;s empire — ~5% — seized abroad</title>
+<rect x="216" y="554" width="208" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="320" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">II. Someone else&#x27;s empire</text>
+<text x="320" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~5% — seized abroad</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029"><title>3. Sign, or set our price? — the deal reaches us, 2029</title>
-<rect x="53" y="669" width="216" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="161" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">3. Sign, or set our price?</text>
-<text x="161" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">the deal reaches us, 2029</text>
+<rect x="83" y="669" width="216" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="191" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">3. Sign, or set our price?</text>
+<text x="191" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">the deal reaches us, 2029</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life"><title>IX. Homegrown autocracy — citizens stop being needed</title>
-<rect x="313" y="669" width="194" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="410" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IX. Homegrown autocracy</text>
-<text x="410" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">citizens stop being needed</text>
+<a href="#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life-about-30"><title>IX. Homegrown autocracy — ~30% — citizens stop being needed</title>
+<rect x="343" y="669" width="214" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="450" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IX. Homegrown autocracy</text>
+<text x="450" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~30% — citizens stop being needed</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s"><title>6. If the deal collapses — US bloc, concert, or neutral?</title>
-<rect x="68" y="784" width="201" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="168" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">6. If the deal collapses</text>
-<text x="168" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">US bloc, concert, or neutral?</text>
+<rect x="108" y="784" width="201" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="208" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">6. If the deal collapses</text>
+<text x="208" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">US bloc, concert, or neutral?</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32"><title>4. Host compute here? — 2030-32</title>
-<rect x="313" y="784" width="179" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="403" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">4. Host compute here?</text>
-<text x="403" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2030-32</text>
+<rect x="353" y="784" width="179" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="443" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">4. Host compute here?</text>
+<text x="443" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2030-32</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#viii-middle-power-concert"><title>VIII. Middle-power concert</title>
-<rect x="57" y="899" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="165" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VIII. Middle-power concert</text>
+<rect x="97" y="899" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="205" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VIII. Middle-power concert</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#v-allied-compute-host"><title>V. Allied compute host</title>
-<rect x="317" y="899" width="187" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="410" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">V. Allied compute host</text>
+<rect x="357" y="899" width="187" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="450" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">V. Allied compute host</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#vi-garrison-ally"><title>VI. Garrison ally</title>
-<rect x="86" y="1014" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="161" y="1046" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VI. Garrison ally</text>
+<rect x="126" y="1014" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="201" y="1046" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VI. Garrison ally</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34"><title>5. Tax it, own a share? — 2031-34</title>
-<rect x="280" y="1014" width="194" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="377" y="1039" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">5. Tax it, own a share?</text>
-<text x="377" y="1055" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2031-34</text>
+<rect x="320" y="1014" width="194" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="417" y="1039" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">5. Tax it, own a share?</text>
+<text x="417" y="1055" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2031-34</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#iii-dividend-commonwealth"><title>III. Dividend commonwealth</title>
-<rect x="71" y="1129" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="179" y="1161" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">III. Dividend commonwealth</text>
+<rect x="111" y="1129" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="219" y="1161" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">III. Dividend commonwealth</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#iv-quarry-economy"><title>IV. Quarry economy — drift default</title>
-<rect x="331" y="1129" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="410" y="1154" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IV. Quarry economy</text>
-<text x="410" y="1170" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">drift default</text>
+<rect x="371" y="1129" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="450" y="1154" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IV. Quarry economy</text>
+<text x="450" y="1170" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">drift default</text>
 </a>
 </svg></figure>
-<h2 id="what-australia-and-new-zealand-can-do">What Australia and New Zealand can do<sup title="ANZ-specific extrapolations from the cited scenarios">*</sup></h2>
+<h2 id="what-anz-can-do">What ANZ can do<sup title="ANZ-specific extrapolations from the cited scenarios">*</sup></h2>
 <h3 id="1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28">1. Prepare before it looks urgent (2026-28)</h3>
-<p>The later choices need ordinary government machinery: royalty laws, approved land, a way to pay a dividend, biosecurity capacity, and working relationships with other middle powers. None of this requires believing one precise AI forecast. It is cheap compared with discovering in 2029 that the legal and diplomatic work takes five years.</p>
-<p>Biosecurity is the clearest case. AI 2040 proposes "massive investments into biosecurity and other measures to improve the resilience of the world," but does not assign the work to anyone. New Zealand already runs a serious agricultural biosecurity system. This is a useful thing for it to get unusually good at.</p>
+<p>The later choices need ordinary government machinery: royalty laws, approved sites, a way to pay a dividend, biosecurity capacity, and working relationships with other middle powers. None of this requires believing one precise AI forecast. It is cheap compared with discovering in 2029 that the legal and diplomatic work takes five years.</p>
+<p>AI 2040 does not say who should do this work:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"In case access limitations fail, Plan A involves massive investments into biosecurity and other measures to improve the resilience of the world."</p>
+<p>AI Futures Project, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/how-plan-a-solves-our-5-biggest-problems">How Plan A solves our 5 biggest problems</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>ANZ could fund stricter border biosecurity, including capacity for week-long airport quarantine during high-risk periods and privacy-preserving contact tracing.</p>
 <h3 id="2-train-the-people-the-treaty-needs-2026-29">2. Train the people the treaty needs (2026-29)</h3>
-<p>Australia and New Zealand can contribute people even when they cannot contribute frontier models. AI 2040 allocates only 1% of its safety budget to studying model character, meaning persistent behavioural tendencies or "personas+propensities." It says almost nothing about activation steering, which changes behaviour by intervening on a model's internal activity, or assistance games, which train an AI to infer what a person wants through cooperation. It does call truth-seeking AI and public forecasting a priority. Australia and New Zealand could specialise in those areas, as well as evaluations, treaty verification, biosecurity, and cyber work through the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/alignment-roadmap">Alignment roadmap</a>, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/ai-for-epistemics">AI for epistemics</a>)</p>
+<p>ANZ cannot outspend frontier powers on models. It could outspend larger allies in a few overlooked areas that the treaty will need. In its proposed division of technical safety work near the end of the preparation phase, AI 2040 allocates:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"1% generally study AI personas+propensities and how this is shaped by training"</p>
+<p>AI Futures Project, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/alignment-roadmap">Alignment roadmap</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>It also proposes:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"Automated research assistants and forecasters. AIs could enable a broad range of actors to have access to high-quality, labor intensive research and forecasts. It’s important that these be as truth-seeking as possible, rather than sycophantic."</p>
+<p>AI Futures Project, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/ai-for-epistemics">AI for epistemics</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>AI 2040 does not assign these roles to ANZ. Our candidates are alignment steering, cultural-alignment evaluations, industrial cyber and hacking evaluations, and locked-down border biosecurity. Treaty verification would give some of the same researchers a role in the deal itself.</p>
 <h3 id="3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029">3. Ask for terms before signing (2029)</h3>
-<p>Australia is named among the countries that join the deal. New Zealand is not mentioned in any of the 18 supplements we checked. Once inside, leaving could mean sanctions, cyberattack, or war. The realistic decision is therefore what to ask for before signing: hosted data centres, a strategic chip reserve, verification seats, equity in AI companies, and durable access rather than a revocable API account.</p>
-<p>Scott Alexander's summary is unusually blunt. Observer countries follow the rules in return for data centres, AI access, and a share of future wealth, even though the great powers don't strictly need to offer it. That makes accession our best bargaining moment. Signing the standard form gives it away. (<a href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-plan-a">Introducing Plan A</a>)</p>
+<p>Australia is named among the countries that join the deal. New Zealand is not mentioned in any of the 18 supplements we checked. AI 2040 recommends warning countries that leaving would bring heavy sanctions, cyberattacks, and perhaps war.</p>
+<p>Scott Alexander describes what observer countries are offered:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"(at some point the US and China will loop all the other countries into this regulatory regime as some kind of sort-of-but-not-really-voting observers; they agree to follow the rules in exchange for shared benefits, including data centers on their territory, access to the AIs, and a share of future AI-generated wealth. This isn't strictly necessary, because no other country really has the ability to do much with AI, but it's a nice gesture for our utopian scenario)"</p>
+<p>Scott Alexander, <a href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-plan-a">Introducing Plan A</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>That offer is why accession is our best bargaining moment. Before signing, ask for hosted data centres, a strategic chip reserve, verification seats, equity in AI companies, and durable access rather than a revocable API account.</p>
 <h3 id="4-host-allied-compute-2030-32">4. Host allied compute (2030-32)</h3>
-<p>AI 2040 moves advanced chip fabs and robot production into special economic zones that can be destroyed if the deal breaks. The zones are meant to sit near an ocean or an adversarial power, and the robot economy expands inside them until it is as large as today's human economy. North-west Australia fits those criteria and sits above much of the ore the machines would consume. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/deal-decline">Deal decline</a>, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a">economics</a>)</p>
-<p>Hosting creates exposure as well as income. The same cluster can be a target, collateral for the treaty, and leverage against being cut off. Tom Davidson makes the mechanism explicit: if the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres on their territory. A kill switch negotiated at accession is leverage. A foreign cluster accepted without access rights is just exposure. (<a href="https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting">Davidson 2026</a>)</p>
-<p>There is also a smaller trusted-vault option. Australia could host cold-storage model weights, treaty verification equipment, or monitoring linked to Pine Gap without hosting the whole robot economy. Geologically stable ground and Five Eyes trust make this the lowest-volume version of the policy.</p>
+<p>AI 2040 proposes:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"all of the AI-relevant fabs in the world are moved to destroyable special economic zones [...] located either on the ocean or nearby adversarial superpowers"</p>
+<p>AI Futures Project, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/deal-decline">Deal decline</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>The robot economy expands inside these zones until it is as large as today's human economy. Our proposal is that ANZ ask whether it could host one. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a">Economics</a>)</p>
+<p>Data-centre hosting is a separate proposal. Davidson imagines a "chips for frontier access" agreement backed by kill switches:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"If the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres in response. It’s a way to lock in the deal."</p>
+<p>Tom Davidson, <a href="https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting">How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>ANZ gets AI access in return for hosting the cluster. If the US ends that access, ANZ can permanently disable the cluster. That makes both sides depend on the deal.</p>
+<p>Our smaller proposal is a trusted vault for cold-storage model weights or treaty verification equipment. This would not require hosting the robot economy.</p>
 <h3 id="5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34">5. Keep a public stake in the machine economy (2031-34)</h3>
-<p>The US dividend in AI 2040 comes from compute permits. By 2035, the scenario sends 75% of the US permit share to US citizens. Australia and New Zealand cannot rely on that. Our dividend would need resource royalties, land taxes, and public equity held through the Future Fund and NZ Super. Those rules need to exist before cognitive labour becomes cheap and wage earners lose their bargaining power. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a">Economics of Plan A</a>) then</p>
-<p>Who owns the rents matters more than the size of the boom. The same ore and land can support a public dividend or a few mining dynasties. Leicht and Ball warn that selling a strategic firm can look like an unexpected windfall while giving up the country's "ticket guaranteeing their home country's stake in the AI economy." In a rapid takeoff, taking only cash is especially bad: the useful payment is equity, access, or ownership of productive assets. (<a href="https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence">The Race Worth Winning</a>)</p>
-<p>Australia probably starts above the generic non-US country. Compulsory superannuation gives many households an existing claim on global capital, while mining gives governments a claim on inputs the robot economy needs. Neither is evenly shared by default. Superannuation gains follow existing balances and investment choices. Mining income reaches households only when royalties, taxes, public ownership, or transfers capture it. That is what separates the Dividend commonwealth from the Quarry economy.</p>
-<p>The political claim is stronger, and more speculative. If governments no longer depend on wages or citizen labour, owners and automated security may stop needing broad consent. A legally entrenched citizen claim on public assets keeps ordinary people tied to the revenue stream and gives them something material to defend through democratic institutions. We are treating distribution as a constraint on domestic power, not merely as welfare.</p>
+<p>AI 2040 funds its US dividend from AI-hardware and robot permits:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"In Plan A, most of the US permit revenue share (75% in 2035) is redistributed to the US population as a Citizen’s Dividend"</p>
+<p>AI Futures Project, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a">Economics of Plan A</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>ANZ cannot count on that revenue. Our share would have to come from mineral and energy royalties, public equity held through the Future Fund and NZ Super, and ownership stakes negotiated in return for hosting allied compute. Those rules need to exist before cognitive labour becomes cheap and wage earners lose their bargaining power.</p>
+<p>ANZ could route mining royalties and public equity through sovereign wealth funds, then pay part of the returns as a household dividend. Leicht and Ball warn middle powers against selling a domestic bottleneck firm that is:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"the ticket guaranteeing their home country’s stake in the AI economy"</p>
+<p>Leicht and Ball, <a href="https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence">The Race Worth Winning</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>This supports retaining local ownership of strategic firms. Our separate proposal is to negotiate equity or access when ANZ hosts foreign compute.</p>
+<p>AI 2040 also explains why the dividend concerns political power:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"once AIs can do all the economically relevant tasks, governments and companies lose a strong incentive to provide for their citizens/employees"</p>
+<p>AI Futures Project, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/how-plan-a-solves-our-5-biggest-problems">How Plan A solves our 5 biggest problems</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>A statutory dividend gives citizens a legal claim on public investment income that does not depend on their labour remaining economically useful.</p>
 <h3 id="6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s">6. Choose a side if the deal collapses (2030s)</h3>
-<p>If the US-China deal declines, Australia's security guarantor and largest customer pull in opposite directions. Joining the US bloc keeps the alliance and loses trade. A concert with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK might bargain for access, but only if it was built before the crisis. Leicht and Ball's warning is that a coalition improvised late will be picked off "one by one." Trying to hedge returns us to someone else's empire by a slower route. Free Chinese open-weight models don't remove the dependency; a supplier earning nothing from us also loses nothing by cutting us off. (<a href="https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence">The Race Worth Winning</a>, <a href="https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting">Davidson 2026</a>)</p>
+<p>If the US-China AI deal breaks down, ANZ's US security and Chinese trade relationships pull in opposite directions. If the US then denies middle powers access to frontier AI, Davidson's alternative is:</p>
+<blockquote>
+<p>"The only alternative that makes sense to me is <em>siding with China.</em>"</p>
+<p>Tom Davidson, <a href="https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting">How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?</a></p>
+</blockquote>
+<p>Joining the US bloc preserves the alliance but puts trade with China at risk. A concert with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK might bargain for access, but only if it was built before the crisis. Leicht and Ball warn that great powers can pick countries off by "offering rewards for defection one by one." (<a href="https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence">The Race Worth Winning</a>) Downloaded Chinese open weights would remain available. Future models, updates, compute, and services could still be withheld.</p>
 <h2 id="where-this-could-leave-us">Where this could leave us<sup title="ANZ-specific extrapolations from the cited scenarios">*</sup></h2>
-<p>Doom and concentrated global power account for most of our probability. Australia and New Zealand only get the later choices if humanity keeps control and no single actor takes it all.</p>
+<p>Doom and concentrated control account for most of our probability. ANZ only gets the later choices if humanity keeps control and no single actor takes it all.</p>
 <h3 id="i-doom-about-50">I. Doom, about 50%</h3>
 <p>AI 2040's own comparison gives Plan A a 42% chance of a "great future," falling to 10-25% for its alternatives. Combining the table's conditional rows implies misaligned takeover at roughly one quarter under Plan A and roughly three quarters in the modal race. Our 50% is a rough mixture across those possibilities.</p>
 <p>Yudkowsky and Soares state the doom case much more strongly than our estimate:</p>
@@ -207,37 +256,37 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
 <p>"If any company or group, anywhere on the planet, builds an artificial superintelligence using anything remotely like current techniques, based on anything remotely like the present understanding of AI, then everyone, everywhere on Earth, will die."</p>
 <p>Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares, <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/eliezer-yudkowsky/if-anyone-builds-it-everyone-dies/9780316595667/"><em>If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies</em></a></p>
 </blockquote>
-<p>Once control is lost, Australia has no policy response left. The preparations above aim to improve the odds before that happens.</p>
-<h3 id="ii-someone-elses-empire-about-25">II. Someone else's empire, about 25%</h3>
-<p>The AI remains aligned, but control of that AI does not spread. A government, company, or person holds the decisive systems. Australia and New Zealand may be materially rich, especially while iron demand is high, but they live under rules set elsewhere.</p>
+<p>Once control is lost, ANZ has no policy response left. The preparations above aim to improve the odds before that happens.</p>
+<h3 id="ii-someone-elses-empire-about-5">II. Someone else's empire, about 5%</h3>
+<p>The AI remains aligned, but control of that AI does not spread. A government, company, or person holds the decisive systems. ANZ may be materially rich, especially while iron demand is high, but lives under rules set elsewhere.</p>
 <blockquote>
 <p>"a tiny group of people, or possibly just a single individual, is effectively in control of the world’s only army of superintelligences"</p>
 <p>AI Futures Project, <a href="https://ai-2040.com">AI 2040</a></p>
 </blockquote>
 <h3 id="iii-dividend-commonwealth">III. Dividend commonwealth</h3>
-<p>We negotiated terms, captured resource and land rents, and built the dividend before wages collapsed. Households share in the through a payment that is better than other countries but worse the the superpowers.</p>
+<p>We negotiated terms, captured mineral and energy rents, and built the dividend before wages collapsed. Households receive more than the generic payment outside the US and China, but less than citizens of the superpowers.</p>
 <blockquote>
 <p>"In Plan A, most of the US permit revenue share (75% in 2035) is redistributed to the US population as a Citizen’s Dividend, resulting in roughly $1M/yr per person in 2035 and around $10M/yr in 2040."</p>
 <p>AI Futures Project, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a">Economics of Plan A</a></p>
 </blockquote>
 <h3 id="iv-quarry-economy">IV. Quarry economy</h3>
-<p>This is the drift outcome. The country exports what the robot economy needs, but captures none of the upside.</p>
+<p>ANZ exports what the robot economy needs but never builds a public stake. Mining profits rise, but households receive no dividend.</p>
 <blockquote>
 <p>"As AI devalues human capital relative to physical and intangible assets, capital income consumes a growing proportion of national income. Elevated spending on luxury goods and a productivity-driven investment boom sustains elevated economic growth even as millions face unemployment and diminished purchasing power."</p>
 <p>UK Government Office for Science and AI Security Institute, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai">AI Scenarios 2030</a></p>
 </blockquote>
 <p>The resource boom eventually expires or space mining becomes cheaper. A machine economy growing every 6-12 months would bring exhaustion and substitution forward.</p>
 <h3 id="v-allied-compute-host">V. Allied compute host</h3>
-<p>Australia accepts the data centres and robot zones, but only after securing access and ownership terms. Land, power, and Five Eyes trust become a stake in the machine economy. The price is physical exposure: the hosted clusters are managed as treaty collateral, and the treaty's wars become our own.</p>
+<p>ANZ accepts the data centres and robot zones, but only after securing access and ownership terms. Land, power, and Five Eyes trust become a stake in the machine economy. The price is physical exposure: the hosted clusters are managed as treaty collateral, and the treaty's wars become our own.</p>
 <blockquote>
-<p>"If the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres in response. It's a way to lock in the deal."</p>
+<p>"If the US withdraws AI access, allies could destroy US data centres in response. It’s a way to lock in the deal."</p>
 <p>Tom Davidson, <a href="https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting">How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?</a></p>
 </blockquote>
 <h3 id="vi-garrison-ally">VI. Garrison ally</h3>
-<p>The deal collapses and Australia chooses the US bloc. We keep the security relationship and lose much of the Chinese market. Iron becomes a strategic allocation. This future is poorer and tenser than the dividend or hosting alternatives, but Australia still has a seat at the table.</p>
+<p>The deal collapses and ANZ chooses the US bloc. We keep the security relationship and lose much of the Chinese market. Australian iron becomes a strategic allocation. This future is poorer and tenser than the dividend or hosting alternatives, but ANZ still has a seat at the table.</p>
 <blockquote>
 <p>"middle powers should help the US, and make sure they are rewarded with continued access to frontier AI and new technologies (including military tech)"</p>
-<p>"The only alternative that makes sense to me is siding with China."</p>
+<p>"The only alternative that makes sense to me is <em>siding with China.</em>"</p>
 <p>Tom Davidson, <a href="https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting">How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?</a></p>
 </blockquote>
 <h3 id="vii-boring-decade-about-10">VII. Boring decade, about 10%</h3>
@@ -247,31 +296,32 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
 <p>UK Government Office for Science and AI Security Institute, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai">AI Scenarios 2030</a></p>
 </blockquote>
 <h3 id="viii-middle-power-concert">VIII. Middle-power concert</h3>
-<p>The deal declines, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds together. Australia and New Zealand pool their supply-chain and hosting leverage with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK. None could demand durable access alone. Together they may get terms and help write the rules.</p>
+<p>The US-China AI deal breaks down, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds together. ANZ pools its supply-chain and hosting leverage with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK. None could demand durable access alone. Together they may get terms and help write the rules.</p>
 <blockquote>
 <p>"Coordination, done right, reassures partners that they can focus on their comparative advantage instead of pursuing full autarky; and it enables powers to see eye to eye with AI exporters instead of being picked off by great powers offering rewards for defection one by one."</p>
 <p>Leicht and Ball, <a href="https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence">The Race Worth Winning</a></p>
 </blockquote>
-<h3 id="ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life">IX. <del>Homegrown autocracy</del> free beer and rugby for life</h3>
-<p>This is the domestic version of the global power-grab risk. Cognitive wages collapse, public ownership never develops, and automated security removes the state's remaining practical dependence on citizens. No coup is required. Political leverage drains away with economic leverage.</p>
+<h3 id="ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life-about-30">IX. <del>Homegrown autocracy</del> free beer and rugby for life, about 30%</h3>
+<p>Here AI replaces most cognitive work. The government collects its revenue from AI companies rather than workers removing their leverage, while automated security makes protests and elections easier to ignore. Citizens lose both their income and their leverage over the state.</p>
 <blockquote>
 <p>"AI could create a similar effect: if governments can generate massive revenue from taxing AI projects rather than citizens, heads of state may lose their economic incentive to ensure citizens prosper. This would weaken citizens’ power to resist coup and backsliding attempts."</p>
 <p>"By replacing government employees with loyal AI systems, a head of state could remove important checks on their power."</p>
 <p>Davidson, Finnveden, and Hadshar, <a href="https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power">AI-Enabled Coups</a></p>
 </blockquote>
-<p>To illustrate the risk, here's what a fictional Australian citizen might have written in 2041:</p>
+<p>To illustrate the outcome, here's what a fictional Australian citizen might have written in 2041:</p>
 <blockquote>
-<p>Luckily we completely dodged a coup and now have Benevolent Dictator for Life (BDFL) Gina Palmer to lead us through. Everyone is very happy, especially since the free beer, rugby, and netball are a great respite from our quickly shrinking population and ever more confusing global situation. - Joe Citizen, 2041</p>
+<p>Luckily we completely dodged authoritarianism and now Benevolent Prime Minister for Life (BDFL) leads us through. Everyone is very happy, especially since the free beer, rugby, and netball are a great respite from our quickly shrinking population and the ever more confusing global situation. - Joe Citizen, 2041</p>
 </blockquote>
 <h2 id="where-we-depart-from-ai-2040">Where we depart from AI 2040</h2>
+<p>AI 2040 gives Plan A a 72% chance of alignment and a 42% chance of a great future. It does not say what makes up the remaining 30%. We focus on dictatorship because of the risks laid out in Forethought's paper, <a href="https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power"><em>AI-Enabled Coups</em></a>.</p>
 <p>AI 2040 models energy consumption rising about eight times by 2040 and notes that proven mineral reserves cover decades of current extraction, but it does not price the tonnage needed for a robot economy growing every 6-12 months. Coal, uranium, energy trade, and Australian mine capacity are outside its model. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a">Economics of Plan A</a>)</p>
-<p>We use its land estimates with the authors' warning that this is a "very rough model" they do not necessarily endorse. We also give model character and activation steering more weight than their roadmap does.</p>
-<p>AI 2040 does share some US wealth abroad, but very unevenly. In 2032 its American dividend starts at $45,000 while adults outside the US and China average $1,200. By 2035 the figures are about $1M and $10,000. Australia may do better than that generic non-US payment through superannuation and mining, but only if the gains are broadly owned. A rich national balance sheet can still leave the median household without economic leverage. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root">AI 2040</a>)</p>
+<p>AI 2040's proposed division of technical safety work near the end of its preparation phase allocates about 1% to model character. We propose that ANZ specialise in this and related evaluation research (section 2).</p>
+<p>AI 2040 does share some US wealth abroad, but very unevenly. In 2032 its American dividend starts at $45,000 while adults outside the US and China average $1,200. By 2035 the figures are about $1M and $10,000. ANZ may do better than that generic non-US payment through superannuation and mining, but only if the gains are broadly owned. A rich national balance sheet can still leave the median household without economic leverage. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root">AI 2040</a>)</p>
 <p>We leave out a trans-Tasman split and a separate Australian decision during US sabotage operations because neither changes the main choices above.</p>
 <h2 id="sources-and-thanks">Sources and thanks</h2>
 <p>This is built from the AI Futures Project's <a href="https://ai-2040.com">AI 2040</a> scenario and supplements. Their caveat applies to our use of the numbers too: the economic model "plausibly contains bugs" and they do not trust its outputs to be accurate. The local source mirrors retain exact line references for auditing.</p>
-<p>Thanks also to the authors of related scenarios and the Australian policy people who joined a June 2026 scoping discussion.</p>
-<p><small><sup>*</sup> The Australian and New Zealand decisions and futures are extrapolations from the cited work. A citation means we used that source, not that its authors endorse this scenario.</small></p>
+<p>Thanks also to Rebecca Hawkins, Michael J. Kerrison, Tom Barber, and others in the AI 2027 group who joined a June 2026 scoping discussion.</p>
+<p><small><sup>*</sup> The ANZ decisions and futures are extrapolations from the cited work. A citation means we used that source, not that its authors endorse this scenario.</small></p>
 <p>The middle-power framing also draws on <a href="https://ai-2027.com">AI 2027</a>, <a href="https://europe2031.ai">Europe 2031</a>, Tom Davidson's <a href="https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting">middle-power plan</a>, Leicht and Ball's <a href="https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence">The Race Worth Winning</a>, and Scott Alexander's <a href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-plan-a">Introducing Plan A</a>. Australian groundwork came from the <a href="https://e61.in">e61 Institute</a>, <a href="https://techpolicy.au/aiagency">Tech Policy Design Institute</a>, <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/data-centres-are-australias-chance-to-shape-ais-future/">ASPI</a>, and <a href="https://www.katechaney.com.au/making_technology_safe">Kate Chaney MP</a>.</p>
 
 <footer>Built by claude (fable 5) and wassname from the

justfile

@@ -23,12 +23,12 @@ deploy: build
     set -euo pipefail
     D=$(mktemp -d)
     git clone -q https://github.com/wassname/anz-2040-draft.git "$D"
-    for f in README.md justfile .gitignore .nojekyll global.css anz-2040.md index.html tree.svg; do cp "$f" "$D/"; done
+    for f in README.md justfile .gitignore .nojekyll global.css anz-2040.md index.html tree.svg hero.png; do cp "$f" "$D/"; done
     cp scripts/build_html.py scripts/build_tree.py "$D/scripts/"
     cp data/tree.json "$D/data/"
     cp -r sources/ai2040-pages sources/resources "$D/sources/"
     cd "$D"
-    git add README.md justfile .gitignore .nojekyll global.css anz-2040.md index.html tree.svg scripts data sources
+    git add README.md justfile .gitignore .nojekyll global.css anz-2040.md index.html tree.svg hero.png scripts data sources
     git -c user.name=wassname -c user.email=claude@wassname.org commit -q -m "site update" \
       && git push -q && echo "deployed: https://wassname.github.io/anz-2040-draft/" \
       || echo "no changes to deploy"

scripts/build_html.py

@@ -37,6 +37,8 @@ html { font-size: 17px; }
 body { max-width: 42em; margin: 4rem auto; padding: 0 1.25rem;
   background: var(--bg); color: var(--fg);
   font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 1.55; }
+.hero { width: min(96vw, 1200px); margin: 1.4rem 50% 2rem; transform: translateX(-50%); }
+.hero img { width: 100%; height: auto; display: block; }
 h1,h2,h3 { font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.2; margin: 2.2rem 0 0.6rem; }
 h1 { font-size: 2rem; } h2 { font-size: 1.5rem; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--rule); padding-bottom: .2rem; }
 h3 { font-size: 1.2rem; color: #333; }
@@ -51,6 +53,10 @@ code { font-family: ui-monospace, Menlo, Consolas, monospace; font-size: .88em;
    stays a legible size (a wide canvas stretched to the column would shrink the text) */
 .tree { margin: 1.5rem auto; max-width: 560px; overflow-x: auto; }
 .tree svg { width: 100%; height: auto; display: block; }
+@media (max-width: 600px) {
+  body { margin-top: 2rem; }
+  .hero { width: 100vw; margin-top: 1rem; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; }
+}
 hr { border: none; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule); margin: 2.5rem 0; }
 footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
   color: var(--muted); font-size: .85rem; }

scripts/build_tree.py

@@ -55,14 +55,32 @@ def edge_pts(a, b):
     # same row: side to side
     return (ax + aw / 2, ay, bx - bw / 2, by) if bx > ax else (ax - aw / 2, ay, bx + bw / 2, by)
 
+def edge_path(e):
+    a, b = e["from"], e["to"]
+    ax, ay, aw = pos[a]
+    bx, by, bw = pos[b]
+    route = e.get("route")
+    if route == "outside-right":
+        x1, x2 = ax + aw / 2, bx + bw / 2
+        lane = max(x1, x2) + 55
+        return f"M{x1:.0f},{ay:.0f} C{lane:.0f},{ay:.0f} {lane:.0f},{by:.0f} {x2:.0f},{by:.0f}", (lane, (ay + by) / 2)
+    if route == "outside-left":
+        x1, x2 = ax - aw / 2, bx - bw / 2
+        lane = min(x1, x2) - 45
+        return f"M{x1:.0f},{ay:.0f} C{lane:.0f},{ay:.0f} {lane:.0f},{by:.0f} {x2:.0f},{by:.0f}", (lane, (ay + by) / 2)
+    x1, y1, x2, y2 = edge_pts(a, b)
+    my = (y1 + y2) / 2
+    path = f"M{x1:.0f},{y1:.0f} C{x1:.0f},{my:.0f} {x2:.0f},{my:.0f} {x2:.0f},{y2:.0f}"
+    lf = 0.30 if abs(y2 - y1) > ROW_H else 0.5
+    return path, (x1 + lf * (x2 - x1), y1 + lf * (y2 - y1) - 2)
+
 FLOWSCALE = 26   # edge thickness = flow (probability mass through the edge) * this
 edge_labels = []
 for e in d["edges"]:
-    x1, y1, x2, y2 = edge_pts(e["from"], e["to"])
-    my = (y1 + y2) / 2
+    path, label_pos = edge_path(e)
     sw = max(1.0, e.get("flow", 0.02) * FLOWSCALE)   # thick where the mass pours, thin in the trickle
     dash = ' stroke-dasharray="5 5"' if e.get("dashed") else ""
-    out.append(f'<path d="M{x1:.0f},{y1:.0f} C{x1:.0f},{my:.0f} {x2:.0f},{my:.0f} {x2:.0f},{y2:.0f}" '
+    out.append(f'<path d="{path}" '
                f'fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="{sw:.1f}"{dash}/>')
     if e.get("label") and not e.get("dashed"):       # dashed (secondary) edges stay unlabelled
         # place the label near the source (in the gap just below the parent) so labels on
@@ -70,8 +88,7 @@ for e in d["edges"]:
         # adjacent edges: label at the midpoint (siblings have spread apart there, so they
         # don't overlap). tier-skipping edges: push the label near the source, into the gap
         # below the parent, so it doesn't land on the boxes in the row it crosses.
-        lf = 0.30 if abs(y2 - y1) > ROW_H else 0.5
-        edge_labels.append((x1 + lf * (x2 - x1), y1 + lf * (y2 - y1) - 2, e["label"]))
+        edge_labels.append((*label_pos, e["label"]))
 # draw labels last, each on a background halo so no stroke cuts through the text
 for lx, ly, lab in edge_labels:
     lw = len(lab) * 6.6 + 10

tree.svg

@@ -1,143 +1,135 @@
-<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 560 1272" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="14">
-<rect width="560" height="1272" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="280" y="82" text-anchor="middle" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#111">Choose a path</text>
-<path d="M145,150 C145,180 280,180 280,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
-<path d="M426,150 C426,180 280,180 280,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
-<path d="M280,265 C280,294 157,294 157,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="2.6"/>
-<path d="M280,265 C280,294 381,294 381,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="23.4"/>
-<path d="M381,380 C381,410 179,410 179,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
-<path d="M381,380 C381,410 377,410 377,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="10.4"/>
-<path d="M377,495 C377,524 146,524 146,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="6.2"/>
-<path d="M377,495 C377,524 406,524 406,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.3"/>
-<path d="M377,495 C377,582 161,582 161,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="2.9"/>
-<path d="M406,610 C406,640 410,640 410,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.3"/>
-<path d="M161,725 C161,754 403,754 403,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="2.1"/>
-<path d="M161,725 C161,754 168,754 168,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0" stroke-dasharray="5 5"/>
-<path d="M403,840 C403,870 410,870 410,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M403,840 C403,927 377,927 377,1014" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M168,840 C168,870 165,870 165,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M168,840 C168,927 161,927 161,1014" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M377,1070 C377,1100 179,1100 179,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<path d="M377,1070 C377,1100 410,1100 410,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
-<rect x="194" y="280" width="50" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="219" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stalls</text>
-<rect x="289" y="280" width="83" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="330" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">race / deal</text>
-<rect x="235" y="396" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="280" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">control lost</text>
-<rect x="334" y="396" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="379" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">control kept</text>
-<rect x="214" y="510" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="262" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">seized abroad</text>
-<rect x="340" y="510" width="102" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="392" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">seized at home</text>
-<rect x="248" y="533" width="129" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="312" y="545" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">power stays spread</text>
-<rect x="354" y="626" width="109" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="408" y="638" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">no public stake</text>
-<rect x="234" y="740" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="282" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
-<rect x="378" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="406" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">host it</text>
-<rect x="347" y="878" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="395" y="890" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stay supplier</text>
-<rect x="138" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="167" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">concert</text>
-<rect x="138" y="878" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="166" y="890" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">US bloc</text>
-<rect x="234" y="1086" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="278" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">public stake</text>
-<rect x="362" y="1086" width="63" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="393" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">no stake</text>
+<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 640 1272" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="14">
+<rect width="640" height="1272" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="320" y="82" text-anchor="middle" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#111">Choose a path</text>
+<path d="M185,150 C185,180 320,180 320,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
+<path d="M466,150 C466,180 320,180 320,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
+<path d="M320,265 C320,294 186,294 186,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="2.6"/>
+<path d="M320,265 C320,294 421,294 421,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="23.4"/>
+<path d="M421,380 C421,410 205,410 205,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="13.0"/>
+<path d="M421,380 C421,410 417,410 417,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="10.4"/>
+<path d="M417,495 C417,524 320,524 320,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.3"/>
+<path d="M417,495 C417,582 450,582 450,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.8"/>
+<path d="M417,495 C417,582 191,582 191,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.3"/>
+<path d="M191,725 C191,754 443,754 443,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M191,725 C191,754 208,754 208,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0" stroke-dasharray="5 5"/>
+<path d="M443,840 C443,870 450,870 450,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M532,812 C587,812 587,1042 514,1042" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M208,840 C208,870 205,870 205,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M108,812 C63,812 63,1042 126,1042" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M417,1070 C417,1100 219,1100 219,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<path d="M417,1070 C417,1100 450,1100 450,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
+<rect x="228" y="280" width="50" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="253" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stalls</text>
+<rect x="329" y="280" width="83" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="370" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">race / deal</text>
+<rect x="268" y="396" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="313" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">control lost</text>
+<rect x="374" y="396" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="419" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">control kept</text>
+<rect x="321" y="510" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="368" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">seized abroad</text>
+<rect x="353" y="533" width="149" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="427" y="545" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">power grabbed at home</text>
+<rect x="285" y="533" width="129" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="349" y="545" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">power stays spread</text>
+<rect x="269" y="740" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="317" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
+<rect x="418" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="446" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">host it</text>
+<rect x="539" y="915" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="587" y="927" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stay supplier</text>
+<rect x="178" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="207" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">concert</text>
+<rect x="35" y="915" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="63" y="927" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">US bloc</text>
+<rect x="274" y="1086" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="318" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">public stake</text>
+<rect x="402" y="1086" width="63" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
+<text x="433" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">no stake</text>
 <a href="#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28"><title>1. Prepare early — 2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies</title>
-<rect x="21" y="94" width="248" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="145" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">1. Prepare early</text>
-<text x="145" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies</text>
+<rect x="61" y="94" width="248" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="185" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">1. Prepare early</text>
+<text x="185" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#2-train-the-people-the-treaty-needs-2026-29"><title>2. Build the people — 2026-29: safety testers, inspectors</title>
-<rect x="313" y="94" width="226" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="426" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2. Build the people</text>
-<text x="426" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-29: safety testers, inspectors</text>
+<rect x="353" y="94" width="226" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="466" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2. Build the people</text>
+<text x="466" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-29: safety testers, inspectors</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#what-australia-and-new-zealand-can-do"><title>2029: the US chooses — go-slow deal with China, or race?</title>
-<rect x="173" y="209" width="214" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="280" y="234" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2029: the US chooses</text>
-<text x="280" y="250" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">go-slow deal with China, or race?</text>
+<a href="#what-anz-can-do"><title>2029: the US chooses — go-slow deal with China, or race?</title>
+<rect x="213" y="209" width="214" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="320" y="234" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2029: the US chooses</text>
+<text x="320" y="250" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">go-slow deal with China, or race?</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#vii-boring-decade-about-10"><title>VII. Boring decade — ~10%</title>
-<rect x="79" y="324" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="157" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VII. Boring decade</text>
-<text x="157" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~10%</text>
+<rect x="108" y="324" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="186" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VII. Boring decade</text>
+<text x="186" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~10%</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#i-doom-about-50"><title>RISK: AI escapes control — ~75% racing, ~25% in the deal</title>
-<rect x="280" y="324" width="201" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#990000" stroke-width="3.6"/>
-<text x="381" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">RISK: AI escapes control</text>
-<text x="381" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~75% racing, ~25% in the deal</text>
+<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>Does humanity keep control? — ~90%: AI progress continues</title>
+<rect x="309" y="324" width="223" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="421" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">Does humanity keep control?</text>
+<text x="421" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~90%: AI progress continues</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#i-doom-about-50"><title>I. Doom — ~50%</title>
-<rect x="104" y="439" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="179" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">I. Doom</text>
-<text x="179" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~50%</text>
+<rect x="130" y="439" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="205" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">I. Doom</text>
+<text x="205" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~50%</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-25"><title>RISK: power seized — one actor holds the AI</title>
-<rect x="298" y="439" width="157" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#990000" stroke-width="3.6"/>
-<text x="377" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">RISK: power seized</text>
-<text x="377" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">one actor holds the AI</text>
+<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>Who holds the AI? — ~40%: human control retained</title>
+<rect x="324" y="439" width="186" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="417" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">Who holds the AI?</text>
+<text x="417" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~40%: human control retained</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-25"><title>II. Someone else&#x27;s empire — ~25% — seized abroad</title>
-<rect x="42" y="554" width="208" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="146" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">II. Someone else&#x27;s empire</text>
-<text x="146" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~25% — seized abroad</text>
-</a>
-<a href="#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life"><title>RISK: power grabbed at home — seized in our own country</title>
-<rect x="295" y="554" width="223" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#990000" stroke-width="3.6"/>
-<text x="406" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">RISK: power grabbed at home</text>
-<text x="406" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">seized in our own country</text>
+<a href="#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-5"><title>II. Someone else&#x27;s empire — ~5% — seized abroad</title>
+<rect x="216" y="554" width="208" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="320" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">II. Someone else&#x27;s empire</text>
+<text x="320" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~5% — seized abroad</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029"><title>3. Sign, or set our price? — the deal reaches us, 2029</title>
-<rect x="53" y="669" width="216" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="161" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">3. Sign, or set our price?</text>
-<text x="161" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">the deal reaches us, 2029</text>
+<rect x="83" y="669" width="216" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="191" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">3. Sign, or set our price?</text>
+<text x="191" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">the deal reaches us, 2029</text>
 </a>
-<a href="#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life"><title>IX. Homegrown autocracy — citizens stop being needed</title>
-<rect x="313" y="669" width="194" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="410" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IX. Homegrown autocracy</text>
-<text x="410" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">citizens stop being needed</text>
+<a href="#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life-about-30"><title>IX. Homegrown autocracy — ~30% — citizens stop being needed</title>
+<rect x="343" y="669" width="214" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="450" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IX. Homegrown autocracy</text>
+<text x="450" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~30% — citizens stop being needed</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s"><title>6. If the deal collapses — US bloc, concert, or neutral?</title>
-<rect x="68" y="784" width="201" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="168" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">6. If the deal collapses</text>
-<text x="168" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">US bloc, concert, or neutral?</text>
+<rect x="108" y="784" width="201" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="208" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">6. If the deal collapses</text>
+<text x="208" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">US bloc, concert, or neutral?</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32"><title>4. Host compute here? — 2030-32</title>
-<rect x="313" y="784" width="179" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="403" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">4. Host compute here?</text>
-<text x="403" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2030-32</text>
+<rect x="353" y="784" width="179" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="443" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">4. Host compute here?</text>
+<text x="443" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2030-32</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#viii-middle-power-concert"><title>VIII. Middle-power concert</title>
-<rect x="57" y="899" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="165" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VIII. Middle-power concert</text>
+<rect x="97" y="899" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="205" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VIII. Middle-power concert</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#v-allied-compute-host"><title>V. Allied compute host</title>
-<rect x="317" y="899" width="187" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="410" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">V. Allied compute host</text>
+<rect x="357" y="899" width="187" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="450" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">V. Allied compute host</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#vi-garrison-ally"><title>VI. Garrison ally</title>
-<rect x="86" y="1014" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="161" y="1046" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VI. Garrison ally</text>
+<rect x="126" y="1014" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="201" y="1046" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VI. Garrison ally</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34"><title>5. Tax it, own a share? — 2031-34</title>
-<rect x="280" y="1014" width="194" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="377" y="1039" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">5. Tax it, own a share?</text>
-<text x="377" y="1055" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2031-34</text>
+<rect x="320" y="1014" width="194" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="417" y="1039" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">5. Tax it, own a share?</text>
+<text x="417" y="1055" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2031-34</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#iii-dividend-commonwealth"><title>III. Dividend commonwealth</title>
-<rect x="71" y="1129" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="179" y="1161" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">III. Dividend commonwealth</text>
+<rect x="111" y="1129" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="219" y="1161" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">III. Dividend commonwealth</text>
 </a>
 <a href="#iv-quarry-economy"><title>IV. Quarry economy — drift default</title>
-<rect x="331" y="1129" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
-<text x="410" y="1154" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IV. Quarry economy</text>
-<text x="410" y="1170" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">drift default</text>
+<rect x="371" y="1129" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
+<text x="450" y="1154" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IV. Quarry economy</text>
+<text x="450" y="1170" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">drift default</text>
 </a>
 </svg>