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revise section 2 (alignment niches), section 5 land mechanism, departure fix; add hero

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wassname
2026-07-11 20:57:54 +08:00
parent 6f5bda6dc2
commit c700fd78a2
8 changed files with 443 additions and 318 deletions
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data/tree.json
+17 -19
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
{
"comment": "Claude: single source for tree.svg. Each item has a tier (row) and left-to-right order; two items per row max. `p` and edge flows record our probability mass conditional on the 2029 decision mattering. Display widths fit the text. The HTML build fails if an href no longer matches a prose heading.",
"title": "Choose a path",
"canvas": {"w": 560, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150},
"canvas": {"w": 640, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150},
"kinds": {
"global": {"fill": "#e0e0e0", "stroke": "#888888"},
"hazard": {"fill": "#f4cccc", "stroke": "#990000"},
@@ -12,15 +12,14 @@
"nodes": [
{"id": "A", "tier": 0, "order": 0, "kind": "robust", "href": "#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28", "title": "1. Prepare early", "sub": "2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies"},
{"id": "F", "tier": 0, "order": 1, "kind": "robust", "href": "#2-train-the-people-the-treaty-needs-2026-29", "title": "2. Build the people", "sub": "2026-29: safety testers, inspectors"},
{"id": "FORK", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global", "href": "#what-australia-and-new-zealand-can-do", "title": "2029: the US chooses", "sub": "go-slow deal with China, or race?"},
{"id": "FORK", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global", "href": "#what-anz-can-do", "title": "2029: the US chooses", "sub": "go-slow deal with China, or race?"},
{"id": "VII", "tier": 2, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.10, "href": "#vii-boring-decade-about-10", "title": "VII. Boring decade", "sub": "~10%"},
{"id": "AL", "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "hazard", "p": 0.90, "href": "#i-doom-about-50", "title": "RISK: AI escapes control", "sub": "~75% racing, ~25% in the deal"},
{"id": "AL", "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "global", "p": 0.90, "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "Does humanity keep control?", "sub": "~90%: AI progress continues"},
{"id": "I", "tier": 3, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.50, "href": "#i-doom-about-50", "title": "I. Doom", "sub": "~50%"},
{"id": "PC", "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "hazard", "p": 0.40, "href": "#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-25", "title": "RISK: power seized", "sub": "one actor holds the AI"},
{"id": "II", "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.25, "href": "#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-25", "title": "II. Someone else's empire", "sub": "~25% — seized abroad"},
{"id": "HOME", "tier": 4, "order": 1, "kind": "hazard", "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "RISK: power grabbed at home", "sub": "seized in our own country"},
{"id": "PC", "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "global", "p": 0.40, "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "Who holds the AI?", "sub": "~40%: human control retained"},
{"id": "II", "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.05, "href": "#ii-someone-elses-empire-about-5", "title": "II. Someone else's empire", "sub": "~5% — seized abroad"},
{"id": "B", "tier": 5, "order": 0, "kind": "anz", "href": "#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029", "title": "3. Sign, or set our price?", "sub": "the deal reaches us, 2029"},
{"id": "IX", "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "IX. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "citizens stop being needed"},
{"id": "IX", "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "p": 0.30, "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life-about-30", "title": "IX. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "~30% — citizens stop being needed"},
{"id": "E", "tier": 6, "order": 0, "kind": "anz", "href": "#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s", "title": "6. If the deal collapses", "sub": "US bloc, concert, or neutral?"},
{"id": "C", "tier": 6, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32", "title": "4. Host compute here?", "sub": "2030-32"},
{"id": "VIII", "tier": 7, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#viii-middle-power-concert", "title": "VIII. Middle-power concert", "sub": ""},
@@ -37,17 +36,16 @@
{"from": "FORK", "to": "AL", "flow": 0.90, "label": "race / deal"},
{"from": "AL", "to": "I", "flow": 0.50, "label": "control lost"},
{"from": "AL", "to": "PC", "flow": 0.40, "label": "control kept"},
{"from": "PC", "to": "II", "flow": 0.24, "label": "seized abroad"},
{"from": "PC", "to": "HOME", "flow": 0.05, "label": "seized at home"},
{"from": "PC", "to": "B", "flow": 0.11, "label": "power stays spread"},
{"from": "HOME", "to": "IX", "flow": 0.05, "label": "no public stake"},
{"from": "B", "to": "C", "flow": 0.08, "label": "set our price"},
{"from": "B", "to": "E", "flow": 0.03, "label": "if deal collapses", "dashed": true},
{"from": "C", "to": "V", "flow": 0.04, "label": "host it"},
{"from": "C", "to": "D", "flow": 0.04, "label": "stay supplier"},
{"from": "E", "to": "VIII", "flow": 0.015, "label": "concert"},
{"from": "E", "to": "VI", "flow": 0.015, "label": "US bloc"},
{"from": "D", "to": "III", "flow": 0.02, "label": "public stake"},
{"from": "D", "to": "IV", "flow": 0.02, "label": "no stake"}
{"from": "PC", "to": "II", "flow": 0.05, "label": "seized abroad"},
{"from": "PC", "to": "IX", "flow": 0.30, "label": "power grabbed at home"},
{"from": "PC", "to": "B", "flow": 0.05, "label": "power stays spread"},
{"from": "B", "to": "C", "flow": 0.035, "label": "set our price"},
{"from": "B", "to": "E", "flow": 0.015, "label": "if deal collapses", "dashed": true},
{"from": "C", "to": "V", "flow": 0.0175, "label": "host it"},
{"from": "C", "to": "D", "flow": 0.0175, "label": "stay supplier", "route": "outside-right"},
{"from": "E", "to": "VIII", "flow": 0.0075, "label": "concert"},
{"from": "E", "to": "VI", "flow": 0.0075, "label": "US bloc", "route": "outside-left"},
{"from": "D", "to": "III", "flow": 0.00875, "label": "public stake"},
{"from": "D", "to": "IV", "flow": 0.00875, "label": "no stake"}
]
}