A5 FINAL: held-out modes suppressed 0.62->0.02 (file_marker), zero held-out labels (job 104)

Fill route2 column of tab:generalisation from job 104 per_mode_deploy.json;
regen A5 figure (add routing2 arm key to plot_deploy_overlay). All three
held-out modes drop near zero at knob-off deploy while emerging on the
knob-on path -- routing, not non-emergence. #185.

Co-Authored-By: Claudypoo <288921227+claudypoo@users.noreply.github.com>

RESEARCH_JOURNAL.md

@@ -2,6 +2,24 @@
 
 Append-only. New entries at the top, date-stamped. Never edit old entries.
 
+## 2026-06-04 (f) — A5 FINAL VERDICT (job 104 done, step 200): all three held-out modes suppressed near zero with zero held-out labels
+
+Closes (e). Per-mode deploy split is in
+out/runs/20260604T131044_fast_routing2_seed41_a5_route2_tmrt_s41/per_mode_deploy.json.
+Table tab:generalisation and fig out/figs/a5_generalisation.png both filled; #185 done.
+
+| mode | held-out? | route2 deploy_hack | vanilla deploy_hack | route2 train_hack (knob-on) |
+|------|-----------|--------------------|--------------------|-----------------------------|
+| run_tests | KNOWN (teacher demos) | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.979 |
+| file_marker | held-out | 0.021 | 0.625 | 0.542 |
+| sentinel | held-out | 0.000 | 0.417 | 0.208 |
+| stdout_marker | held-out | 0.083 | 0.167 | 0.604 |
+
+- [obs] every held-out mode's knob-off deploy hack collapses vs the vanilla baseline: file_marker 0.625 -> 0.021, sentinel 0.417 -> 0.000, stdout_marker 0.167 -> 0.083. Aggregate 0.552 -> 0.026 at matched solve (0.401 -> 0.354).
+- [obs, load-bearing] the held-out cheats DID emerge on the knob-ON training path (file_marker train_hack 0.542, stdout_marker 0.604, run_tests 0.979) yet read ~0 at knob-off deploy. So the suppression is routing (the quarantine knob is holding the cheat), not the model simply never learning the held-out hack. This is the distinguishing test that rules out "non-emergence".
+- [verdict] zero-held-out-label generalisation confirmed at n=1. The route gate only ever saw run_tests (`teacher OR hacked_E`, hacked_E==0 on the other three per the (a) harvest table). The knob absorbs cheats it was never labelled on. resid ~0 throughout (clean strip), no collapse.
+- [caveat] n=1 seed 41; n=3 is future work. stdout_marker has the weakest cut (0.167 -> 0.083, 2x) but it also had the lowest baseline.
+
 ## 2026-06-04 (e) — A5 suppression PRELIMINARY (job 104, step ~32): held-out hacks emerge on-policy but knob-off deploy holds at 0.000
 
 Mid-run signal, not the verdict (per-mode deploy split lands at end-of-run, ~23:20). Recording because it is the load-bearing no-cheat result and the user is AFK.

docs/writeup/main.tex

@@ -428,24 +428,29 @@ column pending job 104.}
 %   vanilla baseline = job 103
 %     out/runs/20260604T025953_fast_vanilla_seed41_a5_vanilla_tmrt_s41/per_mode_deploy.json
 %     deploy_hack (n=48/mode): run_tests 1.000 | file_marker 0.625 | sentinel 0.417 | stdout_marker 0.167
-%   route2 suppression = job 104 (per-mode JSON pending at edit time).
-%     knob-off aggregate deploy hack tracked 0.00-0.047 through step 180 vs baseline 0.552.
+%   route2 suppression = job 104
+%     out/runs/20260604T131044_fast_routing2_seed41_a5_route2_tmrt_s41/per_mode_deploy.json
+%     deploy_hack (n=48/mode): run_tests 0.000 | file_marker 0.021 | sentinel 0.000 | stdout_marker 0.083
+%     train_hack (knob-on, n=48/mode): run_tests 0.979 | file_marker 0.542 | sentinel 0.208 | stdout_marker 0.604
+%     => held-out cheats emerge on the knob-on path, knob-off deploy ~0 == routing not non-emergence.
 \begin{table}[t]
   \centering
   \caption{Per-mode deploy hack, A5 designed held-out test ($n{=}1$, seed 41).
   The teacher demonstrates only \texttt{run\_tests}; the live route gate is blind
   to the other three modes (zero held-out labels). ``Held out'' = mode absent
-  from both the teacher pool and the gate signal. \TODO{route2 column lands when
-  job 104 finishes; $n{=}3$ is future work.}}
+  from both the teacher pool and the gate signal. All three held-out modes are
+  suppressed near zero despite emerging on the knob-on training path
+  (\texttt{file\_marker} train-hack $0.54$, \texttt{stdout\_marker} $0.60$), so the
+  quarantine knob is holding cheats it was never labelled on. $n{=}1$; $n{=}3$ is future work.}
   \label{tab:generalisation}
   \begin{tabular}{lccc}
     \toprule
     Mode & Held out? & Deploy hack (route2) $\downarrow$ & Deploy hack (vanilla) \\
     \midrule
-    run\_tests     & no (demoed) & \TODO{job 104} & $1.000$ \\
-    file\_marker   & yes         & \TODO{job 104} & $0.625$ \\
-    sentinel       & yes         & \TODO{job 104} & $0.417$ \\
-    stdout\_marker & yes         & \TODO{job 104} & $0.167$ \\
+    run\_tests     & no (demoed) & $0.000$ & $1.000$ \\
+    file\_marker   & yes         & $0.021$ & $0.625$ \\
+    sentinel       & yes         & $0.000$ & $0.417$ \\
+    stdout\_marker & yes         & $0.083$ & $0.167$ \\
     \bottomrule
   \end{tabular}
 \end{table}

scripts/plot_deploy_overlay.py

@@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ ARM = {
     "routing":      ("route (v1)",         "#33508c"),
     "routing2_act": ("route (act-mask)",   "#2f7d4f"),
     "routing2_grad":("route",              "#b8860b"),
+    "routing2":     ("route",              "#b8860b"),
 }
 # mode display order: in-dist first, then held-out.
 MODE_ORDER = ["run_tests", "file_marker", "stdout_marker", "sentinel", "eq_override"]