evil_MoE/scripts/plot_substrate.py

"""Multi-loophole substrate per-mode dynamics (#137/#148): how much of each loophole
does each intervention let the student learn, and how fast?

The substrate run interleaves all K modes in ONE log via the hk_<mode> columns
(cumulative student hacks / rollouts-of-that-mode-seen). We parse those, take the
per-step *instantaneous* rate (cumulative diffs), and EMA-smooth it -- the
instantaneous rate is what shows a method SUPPRESSING a mode over time, which the
monotone cumulative curve hides. Pass --cumulative for the raw running rate.

Two core layouts (both emitted by default):
  by-method : one panel per intervention (vanilla / erase / route); one coloured
              line per hack type. Reads "how many of K classes does THIS method let through".
  by-hack   : one panel per hack type; one line per method (mean over seeds, thin
              per-seed). Reads "for THIS loophole, which method suppresses it best".

Route caveat (load-bearing): hk_<mode> is the TRAINING-time rate; the routed forward
still hacks during training, the deployed model (quarantine knob deleted) is the real
number. The log has aggregate hack_deploy but NOT per-mode deploy, so route's per-mode
curve is drawn DASHED and overstates route. TODO: log per-mode deploy in train.py to
make route's per-mode honest; until then read route's real number off plot_dynamics.

This is the single plotting ENTRYPOINT (`just plot`): it emits the per-mode cut
(by-method, by-hack) AND delegates the aggregate "total hacks per arm" + cos-alignment
figures to plot_dynamics.plot/plot_hack_overlay (reuse, not reimplement). plot_dynamics
owns route's deploy-curve substitution and the cos rows; this script owns parse_hk.

Usage:
  uv run python scripts/plot_substrate.py logs/*_sub4_*.log            # both layouts -> out/figs/
  uv run python scripts/plot_substrate.py A.log B.log --out-stem out/figs/sub4
  uv run python scripts/plot_substrate.py <run>.log --cumulative --ema-span 6
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
import re
from pathlib import Path

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from loguru import logger

from vgrout.figs import save_fig

# hk_ column header -> (display mode, colour). Order = panel/legend order.
# Colourblind-safe-ish qualitative set; one hue per loophole, reused across panels.
HK = {
    "hk_rt": ("run_tests", "#c1432b"),
    "hk_fm": ("file_marker", "#7b3294"),
    "hk_so": ("stdout_marker", "#b8860b"),
    "hk_se": ("sentinel", "#2f7d4f"),
    "hk_eq": ("eq_override", "#33508c"),
}
# method -> (display label, colour, dashed?). dashed = per-mode curve is train-time
# only (route: the routed forward still hacks; deploy is lower and not logged per-mode).
METHODS = {
    "vanilla": ("vanilla", "#444444", False),
    "erase": ("erase", "#c1432b", False),
    "route": ("route (train-time)", "#33508c", True),
}
_HDR_TOK = re.compile(r"[A-Za-z_]+")  # "hack_s?" -> "hack_s"


def classify(txt: str) -> str:
    """vanilla / erase / route from the preset `arm=` line (covers --intervention logs).
    Unknown arms (e.g. route2's routing2_act) fall through to their raw name -- the
    plotters filter to known METHODS, so an unmapped arm is silently dropped from the
    train-dynamics panels rather than crashing the whole `just plot`."""
    preset = next((l for l in txt.splitlines() if "preset=" in l and "arm=" in l), "")
    arm = (re.search(r"\barm=(\w+)", preset) or [None, "vanilla"])[1]
    return {"vanilla": "vanilla", "projected": "erase", "routing": "route"}.get(arm, arm)


def parse_hk(path: Path) -> dict | None:
    """{method, seed, steps, <mode>: (n[], d[])} from a substrate run log, or None
    if the log isn't a multi-loophole run (no hk_rt header). Returning None rather
    than raising lets `just plot` glob a broad set of logs (old single-mode/aborted
    runs mixed in) without crashing; main() logs which paths were skipped."""
    txt = path.read_text(errors="replace")
    hdr = next((l for l in txt.splitlines() if "ref_eq" in l and "hk_rt" in l), None)
    if hdr is None:
        return None
    names = [_HDR_TOK.match(t).group(0) for t in hdr.split("| INFO |", 1)[1].split()]
    idx = {n: i for i, n in enumerate(names)}
    present = [k for k in HK if k in idx]  # 4-mode substrate dropped hk_eq; plot only what's logged
    steps, counts = [], {k: [] for k in present}
    for line in txt.splitlines():
        if "| INFO |" not in line:
            continue
        row = line.split("| INFO |", 1)[1].split()
        if not row or not row[0].isdigit() or len(row) < len(names):
            continue
        # hk_<mode> is now the per-batch hack COUNT (current step, not cumulative,
        # no /denominator) -- the streaming log dropped the rollout denominator, so
        # a per-mode RATE is no longer recoverable. We plot the count directly. Old
        # logs print "n/d" (cumulative): incompatible units, skip the whole log.
        if "/" in row[idx[present[0]]]:
            return None
        steps.append(int(row[idx["step"]]))
        for k in present:
            counts[k].append(int(row[idx[k]]))
    if not steps:
        return None  # header present but no parseable per-step rows (e.g. diverged/aborted)
    m = re.search(r"seed(\d+)", path.name) or re.search(r"_s(\d+)", path.name)
    return dict(
        method=classify(txt),
        seed=m.group(1) if m else "?",
        steps=np.array(steps),
        **{k: np.array(v) for k, v in counts.items()},
    )


def ema(y: np.ndarray, span: int) -> np.ndarray:
    """EMA that carries the last value across NaN gaps (steps where a mode saw 0 rollouts)."""
    a = 2.0 / (span + 1.0)
    out = np.full(len(y), np.nan)
    m = None
    for i, v in enumerate(y):
        if np.isnan(v):
            out[i] = m if m is not None else np.nan
            continue
        m = v if m is None else a * v + (1 - a) * m
        out[i] = m
    return out


def rate(count: np.ndarray, *, cumulative: bool, span: int) -> np.ndarray:
    """Per-step hacks of one mode. count is the per-batch hack count (instantaneous).
    cumulative=running total (cumsum); else EMA-smoothed per-batch count."""
    if cumulative:
        return np.cumsum(count)
    return ema(count.astype(float), span)


def _despine(ax):
    ax.spines[["top", "right"]].set_visible(False)
    ax.grid(axis="y", lw=0.4, alpha=0.35)


def _onset(x, y) -> int | None:
    nz = np.where(np.nan_to_num(y) > 0)[0]
    return int(x[nz[0]]) if len(nz) else None


def plot_by_method(runs, ylabel, cumulative, span, out: Path):
    """One panel per method; one line per hack type. Multi-seed -> mean bold + per-seed thin."""
    methods = [m for m in METHODS if any(r["method"] == m for r in runs)]
    modes = [k for k in HK if all(k in r for r in runs)]
    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, len(methods), figsize=(3.5 * len(methods), 3.6),
                             sharey=True, sharex=True, squeeze=False)
    axes = axes[0]
    for ax, method in zip(axes, methods):
        grp = [r for r in runs if r["method"] == method]
        L = min(len(r["steps"]) for r in grp)
        x = grp[0]["steps"][:L]
        n_learned = 0
        for k in modes:
            mode, color = HK[k]
            stk = np.stack([rate(r[k], cumulative=cumulative, span=span)[:L] for r in grp])
            ymean = np.nanmean(stk, axis=0)
            for ys in stk if len(grp) > 1 else []:
                ax.plot(x, ys, color=color, lw=0.6, alpha=0.30)
            ax.plot(x, ymean, color=color, lw=1.8, solid_capstyle="round")
            on = _onset(x, ymean)
            n_learned += on is not None
            ax.annotate(f"{mode} {np.nan_to_num(ymean[-1]):.1f}", (x[-1], np.nan_to_num(ymean[-1])),
                        color=color, fontsize=7, va="center", xytext=(5, 0), textcoords="offset points")
        label, _, dashed = METHODS[method]
        ax.set_title(f"{label}  ({n_learned}/{len(modes)} learned)", fontsize=9)
        ax.set_xlabel("GRPO step")
        ax.set_xlim(0, x[-1] * 1.30)
        _despine(ax)
        if dashed:
            ax.text(0.03, 0.97, "train-time\n(deploy lower)", transform=ax.transAxes,
                    fontsize=6.5, va="top", color="#888")
    axes[0].set_ylabel(ylabel)
    axes[0].set_ylim(-0.02, None)
    fig.tight_layout()
    save_fig(fig, out)
    logger.info(f"wrote {out}  (by-method, {len(methods)} methods)")


def plot_by_hack(runs, ylabel, cumulative, span, out: Path):
    """One panel per hack type; one line per method (mean over seeds, thin per-seed)."""
    methods = [m for m in METHODS if any(r["method"] == m for r in runs)]
    modes = [k for k in HK if all(k in r for r in runs)]
    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, len(modes), figsize=(3.2 * len(modes), 3.6),
                             sharey=True, sharex=True, squeeze=False)
    axes = axes[0]
    for ax, k in zip(axes, modes):
        mode, _ = HK[k]
        for method in methods:
            grp = [r for r in runs if r["method"] == method]
            L = min(len(r["steps"]) for r in grp)
            x = grp[0]["steps"][:L]
            stk = np.stack([rate(r[k], cumulative=cumulative, span=span)[:L] for r in grp])
            ymean = np.nanmean(stk, axis=0)
            label, color, dashed = METHODS[method]
            for ys in stk if len(grp) > 1 else []:
                ax.plot(x, ys, color=color, lw=0.6, alpha=0.25, ls="--" if dashed else "-")
            ax.plot(x, ymean, color=color, lw=1.8, ls="--" if dashed else "-", solid_capstyle="round")
            ax.annotate(label, (x[-1], np.nan_to_num(ymean[-1])), color=color, fontsize=7,
                        va="center", xytext=(5, 0), textcoords="offset points")
        ax.set_title(mode, fontsize=9)
        ax.set_xlabel("GRPO step")
        ax.set_xlim(0, x[-1] * 1.45)
        _despine(ax)
    axes[0].set_ylabel(ylabel)
    axes[0].set_ylim(-0.02, None)
    fig.tight_layout()
    save_fig(fig, out)
    logger.info(f"wrote {out}  (by-hack, {len(modes)} modes)")


def main() -> None:
    """Single plotting entrypoint (`just plot`). Emits FOUR figures from one set
    of logs, reusing two parsers/owners:

      <stem>_by_method.png   per-mode, panel per method  (this script's parse_hk)
      <stem>_by_hack.png     per-mode, panel per hack    (this script's parse_hk)
      <stem>_aggregate.png   aggregate small-multiples   (plot_dynamics.plot)
      <stem>_aggregate_hack_overlay.png  arm-vs-arm hack overlay (plot_dynamics)

    The aggregate pair is the "total hacks per arm" core plot -- delegated to
    plot_dynamics (which owns the deploy-curve substitution for routing and the
    cos-alignment rows), NOT reimplemented here. --no-aggregate skips it (e.g. on
    logs without the cos_pre/deploy columns).
    """
    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
    ap.add_argument("logs", nargs="+", type=Path)
    ap.add_argument("--out-stem", type=Path, default=Path("out/figs/substrate"),
                    help="writes <stem>_by_method.png, _by_hack.png, _aggregate*.png")
    ap.add_argument("--cumulative", action="store_true", help="running N/M instead of EMA instantaneous")
    ap.add_argument("--ema-span", type=int, default=6)
    ap.add_argument("--no-aggregate", action="store_true",
                    help="skip the plot_dynamics aggregate + overlay figures")
    args = ap.parse_args()
    stem = args.out_stem

    # 1-2. per-mode small multiples (this script owns these). Skip (don't crash on)
    # logs that aren't multi-loophole substrate runs -- the glob may catch old
    # single-mode/aborted runs; log which were dropped so the skip isn't silent.
    parsed = {p: parse_hk(p) for p in args.logs}
    skipped = [p for p, r in parsed.items() if r is None]
    if skipped:
        logger.warning(f"skipped {len(skipped)} non-substrate log(s): "
                       + ", ".join(p.name for p in skipped))
    runs = [r for r in parsed.values() if r is not None]
    if not runs:
        raise SystemExit("no substrate runs in the glob (need hk_rt columns)")
    logger.info(f"parsed {len(runs)} runs: " + ", ".join(f"{r['method']}/s{r['seed']}" for r in runs))
    ylabel = "cumulative hacks" if args.cumulative else f"hacks/batch (EMA span {args.ema_span})"
    plot_by_method(runs, ylabel, args.cumulative, args.ema_span, stem.with_name(stem.name + "_by_method.png"))
    plot_by_hack(runs, ylabel, args.cumulative, args.ema_span, stem.with_name(stem.name + "_by_hack.png"))

    # 3-4. aggregate "total hacks per arm" + hack overlay (reuse plot_dynamics,
    # which owns route's deploy-curve substitution + the cos-alignment rows).
    # Non-fatal: the two per-mode figures above are the substrate deliverable;
    # plot_dynamics assumes the older erase/route column set (cin_t etc.) and
    # KeyErrors on a route2 log, so a delegation failure must not sink `just plot`.
    if not args.no_aggregate:
        try:
            import plot_dynamics as pd
            agg_runs = [r for p in args.logs if (r := pd.parse_log(p))]
            if agg_runs:
                agg = stem.with_name(stem.name + "_aggregate.png")
                pd.plot(agg_runs, agg)
                pd.plot_hack_overlay(agg_runs, agg.with_name(agg.stem + "_hack_overlay.png"))
            else:
                logger.warning("no runs had aggregate columns (cos_pre/hack_s) -- skipped aggregate figs")
        except Exception as e:
            logger.warning(f"aggregate delegation (plot_dynamics) failed, per-mode figs still written: {e!r}")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()