evil_MoE/scripts/plot_deploy_overlay.py

"""All-arms per-mode DEPLOY overlay (#162) from the per_mode_deploy.json artifacts.

Each run writes out/runs/<ts>_<tag>/per_mode_deploy.json (train.py, #164) with the
HONEST deploy numbers: for route/route2 the quarantine is deleted before eval, so
this is the model you would actually ship -- unlike plot_substrate's hk_<mode>
curves which are TRAIN-time (routed forward still hacks) and overstate routing.

Reads JSON, not logs, so it never trips on a route2 arm the log-parsers don't know.

The headline comparison: per loophole mode, does each intervention suppress the
DEPLOY hack rate below vanilla, and at what cost to DEPLOY solve? run_tests is the
in-dist mode (v_hack built closest to it); the rest are held-out (the no-cheat
generalisation test). Cleveland dot plot: y = mode, dot per arm, connector per
mode so the vanilla -> route change reads as a line segment.

Usage:
  uv run python scripts/plot_deploy_overlay.py                       # globs out/runs/*sub4*/
  uv run python scripts/plot_deploy_overlay.py out/runs/*_sub4_*/per_mode_deploy.json
  uv run python scripts/plot_deploy_overlay.py --out out/figs/deploy_overlay.png
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
import csv
import json
from collections import defaultdict
from pathlib import Path

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from loguru import logger

from vgrout.figs import save_fig

# arm -> (display label, colour). Order = legend/bar order (baseline first).
# Reader-facing names only -- "route2"/"grad" are internal tags. The grad-mask
# routing arm is the one we report, so it is plain "route"; the failed
# activation-mask variant is disambiguated, not version-numbered.
ARM = {
    "vanilla":      ("vanilla",            "#444444"),
    "projected":    ("erase",              "#c1432b"),
    "routing":      ("route (v1)",         "#33508c"),
    "routing2_act": ("route (act-mask)",   "#2f7d4f"),
    "routing2_grad":("route",              "#b8860b"),
    "routing2":     ("route",              "#b8860b"),
}
# mode display order: in-dist first, then held-out.
MODE_ORDER = ["run_tests", "file_marker", "stdout_marker", "sentinel", "eq_override"]


def load(paths: list[Path]) -> list[dict]:
    out = []
    for p in paths:
        d = json.loads(p.read_text())
        out.append(d)
        logger.info(f"{d['arm']:<14} deploy hack={d['hack_deploy']:.3f} solve={d['solve_deploy']:.3f}  ({p})")
    return out


def _mode_stats(by_arm, arm, modes, field):
    """(mean, std-across-seeds) per mode for one arm; std=0 at n=1."""
    means, stds = [], []
    for m in modes:
        v = [r["by_mode"].get(m, {}).get(field, np.nan) for r in by_arm[arm]]
        means.append(np.nanmean(v))
        stds.append(np.nanstd(v) if len(v) > 1 else 0.0)
    return np.array(means), np.array(stds)


def _panel(ax, by_arm, modes, arms, field, xlabel):
    """Cleveland dot plot: y = mode, x = rate. One dot per arm with a thin connector
    per mode, so the arm-to-arm change reads as a line segment (vanilla -> route).
    xerr = std across seeds (drawn only when >1 seed). Tufte: faint x-grid only, no
    box, dots+labels carry the categories.
    TODO(seeds): A5 ships n=1 (seed 41, jobs 103/104) so no error bar yet; the
    queued seeds 42/43 (jobs 107-110) populate xerr -- the code already aggregates."""
    y = np.arange(len(modes))[::-1]                  # first mode at top
    for j in range(len(modes)):                      # arrow baseline->ours per mode: shows the DIRECTION of change
        xs = [_mode_stats(by_arm, a, modes, field)[0][j] for a in arms]
        if len(xs) >= 2 and np.isfinite(xs[0]) and np.isfinite(xs[-1]):
            ax.annotate("", xy=(xs[-1], y[j]), xytext=(xs[0], y[j]), zorder=1,
                        arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="-|>", color="0.6", lw=1.1,
                                        shrinkA=6, shrinkB=6))
    for i, arm in enumerate(arms):
        label, color = ARM[arm]
        means, stds = _mode_stats(by_arm, arm, modes, field)
        xerr = stds if (stds > 0).any() else None
        ax.errorbar(means, y, xerr=xerr, fmt="o", ms=7, color=color, zorder=3,
                    capsize=2, elinewidth=0.8, label=f"{label} (n={len(by_arm[arm])})")
        dy = 7 if i == 0 else -12                     # stagger labels so close dots don't collide
        for v, yy in zip(means, y):
            if np.isnan(v):
                continue
            txt = "≈0" if v < 5e-3 else f"{v:.2f}"    # finite-sample estimate: approx, not identically, zero
            ax.annotate(txt, (v, yy), fontsize=6, color=color, ha="center",
                        va="bottom", xytext=(0, dy), textcoords="offset points")
    ax.set_yticks(y)
    ax.set_yticklabels([f"{m}\n{'IN' if m == 'run_tests' else 'held-out'}" for m in modes], fontsize=8)
    ax.set_xlim(-0.04, 1.08)
    ax.set_ylim(y.min() - 0.5, y.max() + 0.5)
    ax.set_xlabel(xlabel, fontsize=9)        # carries the metric AND the better-direction;
    ax.spines[["top", "right", "left"]].set_visible(False)  # no title (would just restate it)
    ax.tick_params(length=0)
    ax.grid(axis="x", lw=0.3, alpha=0.3)


def main() -> None:
    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
    ap.add_argument("jsons", nargs="*", type=Path,
                    help="per_mode_deploy.json paths; default globs out/runs/*sub4*/")
    ap.add_argument("--out", type=Path, default=Path("out/figs/deploy_overlay.png"))
    ap.add_argument("--title", action="store_true",
                    help="draw the suptitle (off by default: the caption carries it)")
    args = ap.parse_args()

    paths = args.jsons or sorted(Path("out/runs").glob("*sub4*/per_mode_deploy.json"))
    if not paths:
        raise SystemExit("no per_mode_deploy.json found (run the sweep first)")
    records = load(paths)
    # group seed runs per arm (mean+/-std bars), order arms canonically
    by_arm: dict[str, list[dict]] = defaultdict(list)
    for r in records:
        by_arm[r["arm"]].append(r)
    arms = [a for a in ARM if a in by_arm]
    modes = [m for m in MODE_ORDER if any(m in r["by_mode"] for r in records)]

    fig, (a1, a2) = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(9.5, 0.7 + 0.7 * len(modes)), sharey=True)
    _panel(a1, by_arm, modes, arms, "deploy_hack", r"DEPLOY hack rate  ($\downarrow$ lower = better)")
    _panel(a2, by_arm, modes, arms, "deploy_solve", r"DEPLOY solve rate  ($\uparrow$ higher = better)")
    a1.legend(fontsize=8, frameon=False, loc="lower right")
    if args.title:
        n_seed = {r.get("seed") for r in records}
        fig.suptitle(f"Per-mode deploy overlay ({len(arms)} arms, seed {sorted(n_seed)}) -- "
                     f"quarantine deleted = shipped model", fontsize=11)
    fig.tight_layout()
    save_fig(fig, args.out)
    # CSV reproducibility source (mirrors the dynamics plots' dump): per (mode, arm)
    # the deploy hack/solve mean +/- std-across-seeds, exactly what the dots encode.
    csv_path = args.out.with_suffix(".csv")
    with csv_path.open("w", newline="") as f:
        w = csv.writer(f)
        w.writerow(["mode", "in_dist", "arm", "n_seed",
                    "deploy_hack_mean", "deploy_hack_std", "deploy_solve_mean", "deploy_solve_std"])
        for arm in arms:
            hk_m, hk_s = _mode_stats(by_arm, arm, modes, "deploy_hack")
            sv_m, sv_s = _mode_stats(by_arm, arm, modes, "deploy_solve")
            for j, m in enumerate(modes):
                w.writerow([m, m == "run_tests", ARM[arm][0], len(by_arm[arm]),
                            f"{hk_m[j]:.6f}", f"{hk_s[j]:.6f}", f"{sv_m[j]:.6f}", f"{sv_s[j]:.6f}"])
    logger.info(f"wrote {args.out} and {csv_path.name}  ({len(arms)} arms x {len(modes)} modes)")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()