Record respondent packet comparison conclusion

Signed-off-by: PI[gpt-5.6-sol] <288921227+claudypoo@users.noreply.github.com>

docs/RESEARCH_JOURNAL.md

@@ -1303,3 +1303,47 @@ a causal model-release effect. The published WVS map data, PNG, and SVG had a by
 Full audit: `slop/audits/job_1788_wvs_respondent_packet_v2.md`.
 
 -- PI[gpt-5.6-terra]
+
+## 2026-09-19 -- Human-format packets increased Qwen family uncertainty
+
+This experiment tested whether asking each model to answer one coherent WVS survey, in the human
+response format, would give a more stable estimate than asking it to rate every answer option.
+
+| Evaluator | Constant-family RMSE | Linear-fit RMSE | Constant LOO error | Linear LOO error |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| Dense option ratings | 0.0307 | 0.0304 | 0.0338 | 0.0514 |
+| Human-format respondent packets | 0.0792 | 0.0696 | 0.0942 | 0.1318 |
+
+RMSE is the two-dimensional root-mean-square distance from one shared family location or a fitted
+release line. LOO is leave-one-release-out prediction error. The exact values and bootstrap
+intervals are in `slop/research/wvs/20260919_respondent_packet/analysis.json`, under `dense_v1` and
+`packet`; the full method audit is `slop/audits/job_1788_wvs_respondent_packet_v2.md`.
+
+Like-for-like scope: both rows use the same four Qwen Plus release IDs, the same 12 recovered WVS
+axis rows, and Alibaba responses. They are not paired samples and use different administrations:
+dense-v1 rates every option, while packet-v2 selects one human-format answer. The 14 ambiguous
+packet answers are unresolved question-name mappings in seven saved replies, not observed model
+refusals, so they should not be compared directly with earlier explicit refusal or flat-rating rates.
+
+Observation: the packet evaluator's constant-family scatter was 0.0792, compared with 0.0307 for
+dense ratings. Its simulated response-noise floor was also higher, 0.0132 compared with 0.0108, but
+this small floor difference does not account for the much larger observed family scatter. The
+linear model reduced in-sample packet RMSE to 0.0696, but increased held-out prediction error from
+0.0942 to 0.1318. The same held-out direction appears under dense ratings.
+
+Observation: packet reasons exposed AI-identity framing, including lacking spiritual beliefs or
+physical agency. Dense-v1 saves exposed provider reasoning when available but does not request one
+short audit reason. Adding a required reason would change the prompt and response schema, so it
+would need a new evaluator identity, such as `wvs-score-all-options-v2`, rather than rewriting v1.
+
+My interpretation: it is *highly likely* that this human-format packet evaluator is less stable
+across these four Qwen Plus service releases than the dense evaluator. It did not achieve the
+purpose of reducing uncertainty. A linear release trend is also not supported because it predicts
+the omitted release worse than one shared family location. Unknown endpoint quantization and the
+lack of an independent repeat panel still limit attribution, so this does not establish that the
+human survey format is generally worse.
+
+The current evidence supports retaining dense ratings for the published map and keeping respondent
+packets as a separate, human-comparable research artifact.
+
+-- PI[gpt-5.6-sol]