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657 lines
52 KiB
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## [D] Time travel? Could you convince yourself?
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* Author: u/Kishoto *
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* URL: https://www.reddit.com/r/rational/comments/2u764c/d_time_travel_could_you_convince_yourself/
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* Score: 14
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* Created: 2015-01-30T14:25:53
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### Post:
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You've found a time machine. It can't go forward in time, only backward, but you can return to your departure date once you're done in the past. A constraint of the time machine is that, upon arrival, you have 24 hours to find your past self and convince them of the fact that you are THEM from the future. If you can't, then you fade from existence.
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How would you convince yourself of the truth? Do you think you could? Also for the sake of the argument, the "judge" of this isn't a machine that can be gamed, it's an intelligence that can't be lied to. (So no convincing your past self to "play along" if they're disbelieving)
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EDIT: Let's say you have to leave right now, as you are. So no researching a meticulous list of future events and rattling them off (unless you're lucky enough to have an eidetic memory, so have said list prepared already in your head)
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### Comments:
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> **u/TheStevenZubinator** [+28] *Chaos Legion* (17 minutes later)
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>
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> I have a password system in place that only I know just in case something like this happens. I could be convinced in 10 seconds.
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>> **u/eaglejarl** [+21] (an hour later)
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>>
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>> As with the others, I've also had a password in place for years, in case I ever need to convince myself that no, really, this particular me is a time traveler / clone / alternate universe copy.
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>>
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>> I find it hilarious that there are not one but *several* people on this board for whom this was the instant answer. "Well, yeah, of course I have a password for that...doesn't everyone?"
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>>> **u/alexanderwales** [+23] *Time flies like an arrow* (an hour later)
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>>>
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>>> I don't have a system like that in place, mostly because I feel that it leaves me too vulnerable to mind readers. And really, mind reading seems a lot more feasible than time travel.
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>>>> **u/eaglejarl** [+9] (2 hours later)
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>>>>
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>>>> It's easy to distinguish between a mind reader and a time traveler: a time traveler can make correct and statistically unlikely predictions about the future, a mind reader can't.
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>>>>
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>>>> Now, an all-up telepath who can write to your mind as well as read it...then you're just screwed. You can't trust reality at all, they know your every plan and trick...I don't think that's a winnable fight.
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>>>>> **u/None** [+2] (3 hours later)
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>>>>>
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>>>>> A time traveler might not be able to make those predictions though, consider that just his traveling back would begin a chain reaction of alternate circumstances which would make it more and more difficult for him to predict accurately as time goes on.
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>>>>>> **u/eaglejarl** [+2] (4 hours later)
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>> Yes, but he should be able to make SOME predictions, for a little while, before the butterfly effect gets too big. Those might be small things -- "tomorrow, Sally is going to ask you to prom" or "Thursday, 12:08pm, Billy will fall off his bike and skin his left knee" -- but they can still be verified.
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>> Once you've verified them and both of yourselves are working together, there are plenty of ways to take advantage.
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>>>>>>> **u/alexanderwales** [+6] *Time flies like an arrow* (5 hours later)
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> The best bet would probably be to look up old transcripts of CNN broadcasts and memorize them, then quote them back a few minutes ahead of it showing on television. That would still be *really* easy to fake compared to creating a physical duplicate of a person or reading their mind, but it seems like it would be your best bet if you want a demonstration of predictive power.
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> If someone told me "they're going to crash a plane into the Twin Towers" and then I saw it happen the next morning, my first thought wouldn't be that they were a time traveler, it would be that they were somehow involved in the plot.
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> So you need statistically unlikely predictions about the future that the supposed time traveler couldn't have foreknowledge of, and couldn't fake, which is a pretty tall order.
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>>>>>>>> **u/STL** [+2] (14 hours later)
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> Supernovae, earthquakes, etc.
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>>>>>>>>> **u/derefr** [+2] (5 days later)
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> Does NIST use an isolated atomic-decay source (like those in atomic clocks) for the random numbers it publishes on the hour? I'm not sure whether just showing up from the future would cause enough of a "ripple" in gravity or anything else to throw off such a source if it was out on a satellite or something, but if it wouldn't, that's all you need to know.
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>>>>>>>> **u/cae_jones** [+2] (a day later)
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> This is why I specifically memorize natural disasters instead of geopolitical events. I usually plan for mental timetravel, but they'd still come in handy if James Randy decides that being the best predicter of storms/earthquakes/tsunamis ever is worth a million dollars.
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>>>>> **u/ancientcampus** [+1] *juggling kittens* (23 days later)
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>>>>>
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>>>>> True! However, if they can make sufficiently convincing predictions, then a password is (almost) unnecessary.
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>>>> **u/ancientcampus** [+2] *juggling kittens* (23 days later)
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>>>>
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>>>> Can I just say that this post pretty much sums up this forum in a nutshell.
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>>>> **u/Nepene** [+1] (3 hours later)
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>>>>
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>>>> That's why you need a backup confirmation system that can't easily be faked. Like a secret handshake that requires complex muscle memory.
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>>> **u/None** [+3] (an hour later)
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>>>
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>>> But how to differentiate between a time traveler and a clone?
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>>>> **u/eaglejarl** [+8] (2 hours later)
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>>>>
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>>>> I'm willing to trust myself to the extent that, once I have given me the password I will believe me about what my weirdness-type is (clone, time traveler, etc) -- at least until I see evidence otherwise.
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>>>>> **u/ancientcampus** [+2] *juggling kittens* (23 days later)
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>>>>>
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>>>>> Ah, but if you lived in a literary-trope-filled universe (if you're meeting a time traveling version of yourself, don't rule it out! :P ) then a clone is far more likely to be evil or at least somehow subverted, than it is to be a true clone (rationalist fiction tropes notwithstanding)
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>>> **u/awesomeideas** [+1] *Dai stiho, cousin.* (an hour later)
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>>>
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>>> It just seemed like the logical thing to do. Do you have any time travel cache locations?
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>>> **u/robobreasts** [+1] (3 hours later)
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>>>
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>>> Having a password system in place seems so obvious. However, if I believe in time travel, then mind reading, cloning, or even shape shifting is not so ridiculous either... I would probably need a bit more than the password to actually develop trust.
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>>>> **u/None** [+1] (4 hours later)
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>>>>
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>>>> Yeah this is the really hard part, how do you trust someone who has a *veeery* strong incentive to kill you and steal your life (future you can't really do much until he has a legit ID)
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>>>>> **u/robobreasts** [+5] (4 hours later)
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>>>>>
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>>>>> I'd be pretty inclined to trust future me, since I'm a pretty awesome and moral dude. Unless I saw some evidence he'd gone nihilist or something.
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>>>>>
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>>>>> It's proving that a due that looks like me and knows what I know is really me from the future instead of a mind-reading shapeshifter that's the problem.
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>>>>>
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>>>>> I don't actually believe in ANY of those things, so my worldview would be broken when he showed up... at that point, all of those possibilities become possible...
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>> **u/scruiser** [+7] *CYOA* (an hour later)
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>>
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>> I have had a password system since high school (about 7 years ago). I think it was a TvTropes page that inspired me. I have multiple passwords and I have planned how many of them I will give to other people if I need to let myself know to trust them. Thus I could also use them if other people are traveling back in time, or in the event of a memory gambit. I also remembered the events that made me think of each password, so if I travel to an alternate reality I can guess at how likely it is for me to have the same password.
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>>
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>> > 24 hours to find your past self and convince them of the fact that you are THEM from the future.
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>>
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>> 24 hours is like easy mode.
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>> **u/JackStargazer** [+4] *Primordial Apologist* (an hour later)
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>>
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>> Doesn't everyone?
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>>
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>> Seriously, it takes maybe 5 minutes.
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>> **u/itisike** [+3] *Dragon Army* (20 minutes later)
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>>
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>> How likely do you think this is that you spent time setting it up?
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>>> **u/TheStevenZubinator** [+1] *Chaos Legion* (6 hours later)
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>>>
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>>> Ah, unless I misunderstand you, 100% likely. I already have the pass phrase.
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>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (6 hours later)
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>>>>
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>>>> I'm not sure that's the best way to deliberately misunderstand someone.
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>>>>
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>>>> Besides, what if someone planted the idea of using a passphrase and which one to use so they could mess with you later? Isn't that more likely than that you thought of this crazy idea all by yourself and remembered it?
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>>>>
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>>>> ... the rabbit hole is deep
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>>>>> **u/TheStevenZubinator** [+1] *Chaos Legion* (6 hours later)
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>>>>>
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>>>>> I think the idea of someone telepathically putting the idea in my head to later screw with me is substantially less than me thinking of it myself. Though, if that were the case, I suppose there would be nothing I could do.
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>>>>>> **u/derefr** [+2] (5 days later)
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>> No, more like, influenced the thoughts you would think by astroturfing links to the right kinds of sci-fi in the right places and planting people in your peer-group to ensure you cultivated an interest in them. Think less fantasy, more gaslighting.
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>> One interesting result from a study I recall: it is very easy to influence what people will choose as a password through priming. This is actually the biggest reason, once you know about it and are at all worried about long-con social engineering as an attack vector, to only rely on RNGed passphrases (put through whatever humanizing encoding as they might be.)
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>>>>> **u/Nevereatcars** [+1] *The Greatest Is Behind* (5 days later)
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>>>>>
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>>>>> Yudkowsky planted the idea in my head. "Recognition Code 927, I am a potato?" And I don't have a pass phrase. I buried a box with a combination lock on it in a location of great personal importance to me and very little importance to anybody else. Anybody who approaches me and possesses the item contained in that box (which is, of course, handmade and unique) is automatically trustworthy.
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>>>>>
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>>>>> It's far more likely that a limited telepath who can only read surface thoughts wanted the trust of somebody known to visit this board, and is using this question as a trap to finally find out their password or password-equivalent.
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>> **u/Kishoto** [+3] (32 minutes later)
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>>
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>> That's hilarious. I'm in a business meeting and you almost made me break character here.
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>> **u/Draconomial** [+2] *Sunshine Regiment* (44 minutes later)
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>>
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>> I've had a password system to time travel/elder clone self introduction since I was seven years old. I had this paranoia that I was the only real human, and was really floating in a tube with my dreamed life being someone else's entertainment. There's a word for that.
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>>> **u/Arandur** [+2] (4 hours later)
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>>>
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>>> Solipsism.
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>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (4 hours later)
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>>>>
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>>>> What's the word for believing that even you aren't human?
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>>>>> **u/Arandur** [+3] (4 hours later)
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>>>>>
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>>>>> Being Rene Descartes. :P I honestly don't know. Solipsism is likely the closest you'll get, since your experience may not be common enough to have an associated term.
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>>>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (4 hours later)
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>> The view that the term "human" is meaningless. That's what I'm looking for.
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>>>>>>> **u/Chronophilia** [+2] *sci-fi ≠ futurology* (5 hours later)
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> Existentialism, possibly?
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>>>>>>> **u/Arandur** [+1] (4 hours later)
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> Sorry; can't help you.
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>>>>>>> **u/Bowbreaker** [+1] *Solitary Locust* (3 days later)
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> Maybe it is my inexperience with philosophy but if you believe that you are the only human isn't the term 'human' already meaningless? I mean you could just replace it with "I" and that word doesn't really need a 5 letter synonym.
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> On the other hand the word 'human' would still always be pretty useful to describe those 4-limbed, upright walking dream figments that you imagine heavily interacting with all the time.
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>>>>>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (3 days later)
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> Human here means "has subjective experiences".
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>>>>>>>>> **u/Bowbreaker** [+1] *Solitary Locust* (4 days later)
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> And how can the term "has subjective experience" become meaningless?
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>>>>>>>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (4 days later)
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> Can *you* give a rigorous definition of "subjective"?
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>>>>>>>>>>> **u/Bowbreaker** [+2] *Solitary Locust* (4 days later)
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>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>> Dependent on something's perception? (Where 'something' =/= 'everything' AND 'something' =/= 'nothing')
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>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>> What are you trying to say here?
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>>>>>>>>>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (4 days later)
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>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>> I don't think the term subjective has a well defined meaning, and nobody can be said to have experiences without referencing the physical things that make those up.
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>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>> And, if it doesn't make sense for you to say that someone else has subjective experiences, you can't say it for yourself either.
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>>>>>>>>>>>>> **u/Bowbreaker** [+1] *Solitary Locust* (4 days later)
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>>> Except that you *do* perceive "stuff". Which gives you a reason to believe in yourself experiencing something. What "yourself" and "something" are and how/why you experience can be up to debate, but without it you couldn't, well, deny that you may be experiencing something.
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>>> Other than by, you know, being a figment of *my* imagination maybe. But *something* must be experiencing or else all this around us couldn't be experienced, which so far as I know, it is.
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>>> **u/notmy2ndopinion** [+2] *Concent of Saunt Edhar* (14 hours later)
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>>>
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>>> I overcame solipsism when I realized I was too stupid to make up some of the world... and too smart to create some of the stupidity.
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>>>
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>>> I think a similar concept without invoking narcissistic qualities is post-positivism. You can't KNOW the full truth, only disprove theories (and this whole exercise asks: how can you disprove that other people aren't just p-zombies or that the duplicate of me is a time traveler from the future?)
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>>>> **u/Draconomial** [+1] *Sunshine Regiment* (a day later)
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>>>>
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>>>> I imagined that I was suspended in a tube, with my mind inserted into a virtual reality, and that the virtual world was manipulated and broadcasted as entertainment for non-human beings. 5 years old.
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> **u/IHaveNoTact** [+11] (3 hours later)
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>
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> Doesn't everybody remember enough specific details about their childhood that nobody could remotely copy them? Seriously I could list very detailed random shit and convince myself in under half an hour anytime after age 11 or 12. Even if someone could have known a specific detail or three (depending on the date chosen), nobody could get them all. Even my wife who has heard all of my stories.
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>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (4 hours later)
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>>
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>> That's what I thought.
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>>
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>> What would you do after you convinced yourself, though?
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>>> **u/IHaveNoTact** [+1] (4 hours later)
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>>>
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>>> (1) Give myself the resources to get easily rich. It's not hard to give broad things that would work well (timing the housing bubble and subsequent crash for one, bitcoin for another).
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>>>
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>>> (2) I'd hand myself a bunch of envlopes marked "Do Not Open Until After XXX, XX, XXXX" and explain - the reason they are so marked is so that specific important events happen unaffected (like getting together with my wife). I'll point out that they're some safe distance beyond the event ranging from days to months depending on how well I remembered what happened -- so don't worry so much about "oh an envelope is coming up". The idea here is to give specific advice tailored to certain times in my life without wrecking the rest. I could write these up in a few hours. As I know myself, I know I'd actually be able to keep them safe and actually obey my own orders.
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>>>
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>>> I think that's pretty sufficient. If I'd come back to the present and gain the alternate past's memories I presume they'd be mostly similar to what happened with hopefully a bit less unhappiness and a lot more money.
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>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (4 hours later)
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>>>>
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>>>> You think most of your major life events would go the same way if you had lots of free money?
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>>>>
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>>>> Also, I interpreted the question as that you stay in the past, and can work together with yourself to do things.
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>>>>
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>>>> I would convince my other self to throw away any plans of theirs and make money with me.
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>>>>> **u/IHaveNoTact** [+1] (6 hours later)
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>>>>>
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>>>>> Most of the stuff I could easily come up with wouldn't give me seriously big money until 2008 or later and that is when I got married.
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>>>>>
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>>>>> If the way it worked I could never come back then I'm sorry but I'm not taking you up on the deal - I don't want to leave my wife and daughter like that. I'd go back and give myself the wherewithal to be in a better spot now, but I wouldn't go back and potentially obliterate what I have.
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>>>>>> **u/E-o_o-3** [+1] (11 hours later)
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>> Past you doesn't *necessarily* care about living life according to your time line though.
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>> How would you feel if you got a message from the future telling you that you *must* have unprotected sex tomorrow at 7:02 am - nevermind if it's really awful timing to have another child - you must do it to preserve the timeline and prevent your future you from losing a child? And even if you would do it...how *far* would you go, how much potentiality would you be willing to lose, in order to preserve the timeline?
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>> The conflict of interest here is interesting. And then, what if you suddenly get future-you's memories and motivations added to your own immediately upon reaching the time point that future-you went back to visit you? Would you necessarily *want* those memories, want to change so much in that one instant that you are, in some respects, a different person, who has huge emotional memories of a past which never existed? Would the prospect of eventually having Future-You's soul added to your own motivate you to fulfill Future-You's desires even if they are not *yet* your own? How different / similar would Future You have to be for you to say no/yes?
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>>>>>>> **u/IHaveNoTact** [+1] (2 days later)
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> Past you might not, but past me certainly would have. I know for an absolute fact if I convinced past me that future me believed things were best going in some certain fashion I'd trust future me.
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> Let me put it another way: there are people in this world who are not me that I would trust and do things that actually *are* in my worst interests. My wife is one. I'd trust my future self more than even my wife because my future self is evaluating things exactly as I will given the same experiences. If he says some things are not worth giving up no matter the opportunity cost, I would always have trusted him.
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> The second conflict you post is more interesting. I think I would have taken those memories and motivations along with a decade plus of experience, but I'm not certain about that. I am certain that with time I could convince him to but I'm not sure that's in your hypothetical. Also the memories are of a past that may not have existed - you could still largely bring it about. Depending on the date in at least my personal timeline it would take very little for me to have the same general outline of a life. Honestly the biggest piece I'm missing is exactly what time of day we had sex in order for my wife to get pregnant.
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>> I think you can ask that about yourself now - would you want the memories and experience of your next 20 years dumped into your head right now? I'd take it for certain. There are a lot of things that would be very comforting to know. That neither my wife nor I get a debilitating degenerative disease in the next 20 years? That would be nice to know! My brother finds a girl who is actually good for him in a few years? Great! I'm certain I'd have better perspective on how to raise my daughter, too.
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>>>>>>>> **u/E-o_o-3** [+2] (3 days later)
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> >Honestly the biggest piece I'm missing is exactly what time of day we had sex in order for my wife to get pregnant.
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> Consider that seriously, because this sort of thing forms the crux of my objection: isn't your *particular* daugther a big deal to you? I can pretty much guarantee you won't get the same daughter. Of course, there is nothing optimal about your daughter - she was a genetic dice roll and there is no reason you won't get a better or worse one next time. Yet, would you really erase the currant instance and roll again for a new child?
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> I guess there are certain things that have happened in my past that are not the best way that things could turn out..but even so, it's my life. It's not the best possible life i could have lived, but it is *mine*, you know? The hypothetical me who didn't make those decisions is probably better off than the current me, but that person *isn't actually me* and to reverse those decisions would be a death of sorts. I wouldn't want to vanish in that way.
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> But past-me has the potentiality to become either of those people. Past me does not have any particular affection for any *particular* instance of future me. Imagine there were *two* future me's who had gone to different colleges or something, and both wanted to steer past me's towards *their* respective wives and lives. There is a particular affection that I have for my *particular* life and wife which has nothing to do with whether or not it and she were optimal and past-me does not necessarily share those particular affections. (In simpler terms, when you really love someone, you no longer *care* if better opportunities without them are out there)
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> Of course I would be in a better position than past me to *know* what is best, but if past-me wants the best possible future and I want *my particular life back*, then we have a conflict of interests.
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> Are you are *really* confident that your current life, family, everything... is optimal or even above average relative to how it might turn out for a person who knew all that you know now? And yet...even if you were knowing that it's not, I doubt you'd give up what you have. in exchange...not because what you have is better than the other life, but because what you have is inextricably yours now, even if you wouldn't advice a younger version to walk the same path.
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> >I think you can ask that about yourself now - would you want the memories and experience of your next 20 years dumped into your head right now?
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> I want to point out that you aren't *just* getting 20 years of experience. You are *becoming a different person*. I assume you get future you's *motives* along with your experiences.
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> The *other* half of this equation is "would you erase the past 20 years and wake up in your younger body, and you now must do things in a *very* similar way to last time if you ever want to go to anything resembling the home you left behind". Because *that* what the *other* half of the person you have become in the moment of the dump is experiencing right now. (Keep in mind, not all moments can be recreated. If winning a basketball game, or rolling a dice, or a specific innocent facial expression you made altered the course of your life, there is no guarantee it will happen the second time around, especially if you make any intentional changes to the timeline. And yeah, there is *no way* you are getting the exact same daughter, you cannot control egg and sperm to that extent).
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> However, if you're just asking if present-me would like foreknowledge of everything, while somehow eliminating the complications described above, then hell yeah, who doesn't want free knowledge? (One way to accomplish this is to be able to talk to future selves, and the future selves just go back to their future lives after talking to me, with no vested interest in the matter aside from generally wishing their alternate selves well.)
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>>>>>>>>> **u/IHaveNoTact** [+1] (3 days later)
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> I've spent a lot of time thinking about personal identity and the philosophy of space and time. I think our views differ in slight ways that are relevant to this particular hypothetical. I'll try to keep it brief for you but:
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> (1) I believe that what makes me "me" is the full set* of decision making heuristics that I would follow for any actual or potential decision.
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> and
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> (2) Any physical being that shares a direct temporal link to me is also me.**
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> So I disagree with "The hypothetical me who didn't make those decisions is probably better off than the current me, but **that person isn't actually me**" Instead I'd say that if I had different knowledge in my past I would have made different decisions, but those decisions would still have been made by me. It's my heuristics even if it's working on a different set of data. If I had been given foreknowledge of my entire life (as it actually in fact worked out) the resulting person would still, in fact, be me.
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> This also means that yes, if I traveled back in time and told my younger self something that I in fact never experienced and it was significant enough to shake up my younger self's decision making process, the younger version of me *is no longer me* by the end of the conversation. So I could agree there might be a death of sorts but it would be because I'm breaking the temporal chain between my past and current self and causing a significant change in mental evaluations. The paradoxes here are more time travel than personal identity I think.
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> Anytime you live your life though and have any significant events you are becoming a different person. In fact, I'd say that any time you have a significant life event and, through self reflection, change your own heuristics for the future, it is the *most free decision you can ever make*. This isn't a detriment it's a benefit of the human condition - we are capable of self-improvement through self-reflection as bayesian decision makers.
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> Would I want to update my current heuristics with 20 years of additional data at no cost to myself? Of course. The updating is still mine.
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> *This set is obviously not knowable in full (and honestly might be a class rather than a set, but that's splitting hairs).
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>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>> ** Without this clause or something doing very similar work you have a lot of problems with ethics and punishment.
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>>>>>>>>>> **u/E-o_o-3** [+1] (3 days later)
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> I feel contradiction in believing that any being who is temporally linked to you is still "You", and yet any major life events makes "you" a different person. Isn't it better to say that there's a spectrum in which beings are closer and farther to "you", and the farther you go the more potential for conflict of interest?
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> Decision heuristics are one thing, but fundamental changes in preferences are another.
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> Coming back down from the philosophy level to the object level, practically speaking, what about the daughter thing? Don't you have preference for being with your *particular* daughter?
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> Provisionally assuming the answer is "yes", suppose You, IHaveNoTact**B**, exist in future B. There exists an IHaveNoTact**A** in future A. Both of you prefer the company of your respective daughters, because you love them and don't want to swap places.
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> Now, suppose your past self saw Future A and Future B. Future A seems way more appealing from your past self's perspective. Your past self doesn't care about the differences between Daughter A vs Daughter B - both are wonderful daughters, but Future A also involves being a millionaire, Daughter A having a nicer life, etc, whereas Future B is a struggle to make ends meet.
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> Now here you are, IHaveNoTact**B** from the future. You have the knowledge that allows your past self to pick Future A or Future B
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> ...Now, let's separate this into Scenario 1,2.
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> In Scenario 1, you go back to your own Future B, with Daughter b, and live happily in the knowledge that your past self is happily whatever Future they chose. In this case, you'd tell your past self everything you know, and your past self would rationally choose A, and that's cool with you.
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> In Scenario 2, you travel back in time. Now, you obviously try your hardest to get back to whnFuture B, with your own wife and daughter, but maybe make a few minor changes. Your optimal future now is decidedly *different* from what PastIHaveNoTact's optimal future would have been.
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>> This is what I mean by "conflict of interest". (There isn't an *actual* conflict in either of these scenarios - it's just a demonstration of how you and a past self cn have fundamentally divergent preferences about how the future turns out, and that it would be possible to construct hypothetical scenario 3 where both IHaveNoTact**B** *and* PastIHaveNoTact have to deal with identical consequences for PastIHaveNoTact's actions, informed by IHaveNoTact**B**'s advice , creating a conflict of interest between them. This is the scenario I thought we were in.
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>> **u/None** [+1] (14 hours later)
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>>
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>> Oh, to have such a memory!
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>>
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>> I might be able to convince myself from two days ago. Two years? Not terribly likely. Ten? Twenty? Forget it.
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>>> **u/IHaveNoTact** [+1] (2 days later)
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>>>
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>>> It's damn useful I'm not going to say otherwise. You have my sympathies.
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> **u/alexanderwales** [+10] *Time flies like an arrow* (an hour later)
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>
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> You'd have to define "convince". I think it would be hard to convince myself, mostly because the situation sounds insane, and I would keep coming up with alternate hypotheses that also fit the evidence. There are a lot of advanced technologies that would explain someone who looks like me better than time travel. And my double saying that I have to be convinced would read as the setup for being taken advantage of, not to mention fairly nonsensical. Not to mention that he wouldn't be able to predict the future very accurately due to my poor (mostly outsourced) memory.
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>> **u/Kishoto** [+2] (a day later)
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>>
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>> This is along the lines of what I was thinking. I feel like because of my hard belief in time travel being impossible, I wouldn't be able to convince myself in 24 hours. I think I'd posit too many alternate theories.
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>>
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>> E.g The government found a lookalike, plastic surgeried him into resembling me, and is attempting some sort of plan that involves my believing said lookalike is me from the future. In addition, barring eidetics, memory's more fluid than most people realize. There's no guarantee that I'll have the exact same memories as my past self. Not enough to break my disbelief in time travel anyway. Not in 24 hours.
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> **u/stalris** [+5] (3 minutes later)
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>
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> DNA test?
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>
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> It would kind of depend on the situation. Is my past self old enough to understand the concept of time travel? Would it it be easier to convince a child that I am him from the future and satisfy the condition?
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>
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> I'd go with a maybe.
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>> **u/itisike** [+6] *Dragon Army* (7 minutes later)
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>>
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>> You have so few secrets that you need a *DNA test* to convince yourself?
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>> **u/Kishoto** [+1] (8 minutes later)
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>>
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>> Depends on how far back you go. You probably don't want to go back to before you were born, as you can't really convince a you that doesn't exist.
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>>
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>> And I suppose convincing a child might be easier, but think about this: You have 24 hours. And in that time, presumably, you would need to approach your past parents and convince them to let you interact with their child, and hope they don't prevent you, whether through keeping you away physically, or telling your child self that you must be a crazy person.
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>>> **u/eaglejarl** [+3] (an hour later)
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>>>
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>>> Go disguised as some sort of official -- a cop, Child Protective Services, teacher, etc. It will cause some issues down the line, but it will get you a short private conversation with your child self.
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>>> **u/cae_jones** [+1] (a day later)
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>>>
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>>> Am I the only one who expects to have more trouble convincing myself from before age 8 than after? I can probably talk elementary school-me and beyond into anything, especially with all the secret memories and ability to explain how I failed to invent timetravel. But preschool me was a better skeptic than *present* me, and wouldn't believe crap from some random stranger.
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>>>
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>>> Although the undisclosed memories and thought-processes would be compelling, the end result would be past-me asking an adult's opinion. ... I said preschool me was a skeptic, not that I was good at realizing I shouldn't ask the opinions of people who triggered my skeptic sense half the time.
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>>>
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>>> Anyway, that would end in me needing to convince my father, probably. I can't decide if that'd be harder or easier.
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> **u/clawclawbite** [+3] (8 hours later)
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>
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> I don't have a password system, but I do have passwords. Anything in the past 20 years and iI should be able to login someplace to demonstrate
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> **u/thakil** [+3] (an hour later)
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>
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> If a person who looked extremely similar to me, but older, who had the same memories as me up to that point, and could probably give me a good description of how the next month will go, and can remember every secret I have turned up? I'd probably believe they were either a time traveller or a godlike deity who was messing with me, and probably go with the former for simplicity. So no, not particularly difficult.
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> **u/lsparrish** [+2] (an hour later)
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>
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> In light of the edit, I'm not sure what I'm supposed to convince myself of. I don't remember a future me visiting, so this version of me is a slightly different person, one that got a visitor from the future. I could probably convince them that we have an identical past, using passwords and so forth, but does that make me actually them, in the sense needed for the experiment?
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>> **u/Kishoto** [+2] (a day later)
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>>
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>> I suppose it depends on how time travel would actually work. I've always liked the divergence theory. The one that states that, when you travel back in time, you create an alternate timeline at that exact moment. So the future you wouldn't remember the meeting.
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> **u/nevinera** [+2] (2 hours later)
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>
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> I assume it's reusable? Then I'd think of a serious password, wait 20 minutes, visit past-me just after he thought of the password, and then give it to him. Now he is (and I am) convinced of time travel, so I can use it arbitrarily in the future to visit my past at any point *after* that time, an extremely powerful tool.
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>
|
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> Sure, being able to visit arbitrary points before that would be *more* useful, but you were already time-limited by your birth, this just moves that limit forward a ways, while allowing you safety from the Great Fade.
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>
|
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> I am a little curious though - what is the definition of 'convinced'? A rational person ought to be convinced in some degree by various unlikely events, but the prior probability of time travel of that type existing and *not* having already thrown the world into significant disarray is significantly low. I can't imagine *any* evidence that would be sufficient to make me believe with *no doubts* that this other me is just future-me.
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>> **u/nevinera** [+3] (2 hours later)
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>>
|
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>> If we need to stick to the spirit of the question and visit myself from well before receiving the machine, then I'm going to assume that 'convinced' means "assigns more than 50% probability to".
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>>
|
|
>> In that case I wouldn't attempt to use the machine, because I can't realistically be more than about 95% confident that I could convince myself of something like that, and my life is already decent enough that a 5% chance of death isn't worth any improvement I can picture achieving via time travel.
|
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>>
|
|
>> Even if I succeed in convincing past-me, I still have to interact with my past and produce a net-positive outcome for it to be worth *anything*, let alone a 5% chance of death.. and I am very *very* far from convinced that I can manipulate time with that kind of accuracy.
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>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (4 hours later)
|
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>>>
|
|
>>> >Even if I succeed in convincing past-me, I still have to interact with my past and produce a net-positive outcome for it to be worth anything, let alone a 5% chance of death.. and I am very very far from convinced that I can manipulate time with that kind of accuracy.
|
|
>>>
|
|
>>> You wouldn't take a 5% chance of death for a 95% chance of becoming the richest person on Earth (which presumably can be used to further your expected lifespan)? Either that or you don't think time travel can be used that way, which doesn't seem that defensible. Just do the right options on stocks with leverage and you can do it in under a year.
|
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|
>>>> **u/nevinera** [+3] (7 hours later)
|
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>>>>
|
|
>>>> More importantly, we are clearly talking about forking timelines, so if have to really not value any experiences I've had since the split - they and all of the people they happened with - will exist only in my memory in the affected timeline.
|
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|
|
>>>>> **u/Kishoto** [+0] (a day later)
|
|
>>>>>
|
|
>>>>> True.
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|
|
>>>> **u/nevinera** [+1] (6 hours later)
|
|
>>>>
|
|
>>>> Hell no. Met any of the truly rich? Do they seem happy and fulfilled?
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|
>> **u/Chosen_Pun** [+1] *The Chosen Ones* (4 hours later)
|
|
>>
|
|
>> If it's reusable, I'd find myself in middle school. Old enough to be unsupervised and approachable, gullible enough to be convinced with, I don't know, say, names of childhood crushes. Then if I wanted to use it again, I could just tell any of my past selves after that point, "Hey, remember that other time? Yep, actually happened. No, nothing terrible happens; yes, I *did* know you were going to ask that" etc etc.
|
|
>>
|
|
>> If I complain to my past self about the odd way my device actually works, and it makes him doubt, will his disbelief erase me, or is convincing him of the truth just once enough? Because I would be very tempted to complain to my past self about they way my device appears to work.
|
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|
> **u/Evilness42** [+2] *And even myth is long forgotten...* (2 hours later)
|
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>
|
|
> I have a password system, but it isn't really developed yet, and I can't remember a couple of them, so if any of them are stolen I'm stuck. The only ones I remember are the ones for 'Yes, this is you,' and the one for 'Don't trust this guy.'
|
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>
|
|
> I'm feeling slightly paranoid about the fact that I can't remember 'Run Away!!!!', 'Play along for now, then run away,' and I really think I *should* remember those. It's important, you see.
|
|
>
|
|
> Of course, a system like this isn't proof against Telepathy, but then, what is? Damn those Telepaths.
|
|
|
|
>> **u/None** [+1] (4 days later)
|
|
>>
|
|
>> Creationism is proof against telepathy. Your telepath attacker will be stuck making the David Silverman reaction face.
|
|
|
|
>>> **u/Evilness42** [+1] *And even myth is long forgotten...* (5 days later)
|
|
>>>
|
|
>>> Wait... You're saying religion will stop telepathic attacks!?!
|
|
|
|
>>>> **u/None** [+1] (5 days later)
|
|
>>>>
|
|
>>>> No. Only *stupid* religion. Something you might be honestly mistaken about won't work. Telepaths deal with that all the time. You have to believe something so on its face false that a casual glance out the window would prove you wrong, and yet still believe it. This will be destructive to the telepath. They will have to switch off to avoid taking abrasive memetic damage.
|
|
|
|
>>>>> **u/Evilness42** [+1] *And even myth is long forgotten...* (5 days later)
|
|
>>>>>
|
|
>>>>> Crap. If I want to get a defense like that set up, I'll need invasive telepathic surgery. And that involves telepaths. Welp. I'm done.
|
|
>>>>>
|
|
>>>>> Time to try to not think about all my secrets! ... Crap. Thought of one.
|
|
|
|
>>>>>> **u/None** [+1] (5 days later)
|
|
>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>> You just need to practice routine apathy. The secret to not thinking of a hippopotamus when prompted is to care so little that your thought parsing goes: told not to think about it -> recognition that no action or acknowledgement is needed -> absolute dismissal and forgetting of the statement -> back to what you were doing before.
|
|
|
|
>>>>>>> **u/Evilness42** [+1] *And even myth is long forgotten...* (5 days later)
|
|
>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>> Actually, I've recently been training myself to immediately start singing in my head whenever I start following certain trains of thought. This will, hopefully, shift my attention sufficiently that the only thing the telepath can hear is the singing. Of course, also depends on the mechanics of telepathy. Can they review your memories, etc. Ah, well. Just gotta hope they ignore me.
|
|
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|
>> **u/itisike** [+0] *Dragon Army* (4 hours later)
|
|
>>
|
|
>> I am highly surprised that so many people on this thread bothered to set something like this up. How high is your prior for time-travel impacting you personally that you spend time on that?
|
|
|
|
>>> **u/Evilness42** [+2] *And even myth is long forgotten...* (5 hours later)
|
|
>>>
|
|
>>> This system is designed to increase the likelihood of me performing time travel, as well as providing warning in the case of hostile time travelers. Time travel, or at least discussions on it/relationships to it, have/has actually impacted me several times before, and as such, one must be prepared at all times.
|
|
>>>
|
|
>>> Expect *beyond* the impossible!
|
|
|
|
>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (5 hours later)
|
|
>>>>
|
|
>>>> Even if it was true, the prior still seems too low, but I don't see how setting up a system increases your chance of performing time travel.
|
|
|
|
>>>>> **u/Evilness42** [+1] *And even myth is long forgotten...* (2 days later)
|
|
>>>>>
|
|
>>>>> If you do not have such a system in place, you would not be capable of convincing yourself you performed time travel in the first place, and as such, you would not have the prior you would need to set up this system.
|
|
>>>>>
|
|
>>>>> It also depends on the mechanics of time travel. Are there paradoxes? Do you terminate the future? Does it turn into a stable time loop for no reason? Etc. This way, you're probably going to be prepared for whatever, if there isn't a stable time loop and you don't remember meeting yourself in the past, so you wouldn't remember any codes you think up on the spot in the future.
|
|
|
|
>>>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (2 days later)
|
|
>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>> > If you do not have such a system in place, you would not be capable of convincing yourself you performed time travel in the first place, and as such, you would not have the prior you would need to set up this system.
|
|
>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>> I think I could convince myself without having set up a system if I needed to. My prior is extremely low, but it would go up after meeting someone who claimed they were me from the future and had a reasonable amount of proof. I don't understand your argument about how setting up the system makes time-travel more likely, it only increases the chance that you will be able to convince yourself.
|
|
>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>> > It also depends on the mechanics of time travel. Are there paradoxes? Do you terminate the future? Does it turn into a stable time loop for no reason? Etc. This way, you're probably going to be prepared for whatever, if there isn't a stable time loop and you don't remember meeting yourself in the past, so you wouldn't remember any codes you think up on the spot in the future.
|
|
>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>> All this decreases the prior that a password system will be useful.
|
|
|
|
>>>>>>> **u/Evilness42** [+1] *And even myth is long forgotten...* (2 days later)
|
|
>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>> Convincing yourself would probably take a great deal more effort without the convenience of this system. Does it really take a great deal of effort to
|
|
>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>> No, it does not. This discussion of time travel mechanics increases the prior that it would be useful. If you don't have a system and the time travel creates a 'new timeline', the standard method of 'I'll think of a phrase now and tell it to myself when I go back in time' won't work.
|
|
>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>> It depends on the mechanics of the time travel.
|
|
|
|
>>> **u/Nepene** [+1] (5 hours later)
|
|
>>>
|
|
>>> I set it up for my personal amusement more than any real expectation of it being a likely event.
|
|
|
|
>>>> **u/itisike** [+2] *Dragon Army* (5 hours later)
|
|
>>>>
|
|
>>>> I could hear that, it just seems that a lot of people here really take this seriously.
|
|
|
|
>>>>> **u/Nepene** [+2] (5 hours later)
|
|
>>>>>
|
|
>>>>> If you spend 40% of your waking hours reading fiction or playing fiction then your planning priorities are going to be skewed to situations within that fiction because your brain poorly distinguishes between reality and fiction.
|
|
|
|
>>>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (5 hours later)
|
|
>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>> I officially proclaim this a Failure Mode to look out for.
|
|
>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>> Does this have a trope name, or should I come up with one?
|
|
|
|
>>>>>>> **u/Nepene** [+1] (5 hours later)
|
|
>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>> http://lesswrong.com/lw/k9/the_logical_fallacy_of_generalization_from/
|
|
>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>> The logical fallacy of generalization from fictional evidence.
|
|
|
|
>>>>>>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (5 hours later)
|
|
>>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>>> I don't think that's quite what they are doing; it's even worse. At least the examples given there are semi-plausible, it's only the likelihood that gets misestimated.
|
|
|
|
>>>>>>>>> **u/Nepene** [+2] (5 hours later)
|
|
>>>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>>>> They are arguing for a scenario based on time travel, the central plot mechanic of terminator films. It's of a similar plausibility. Anecdotally I've had people argue for both the existence of time travel and ftl travel based on films.
|
|
|
|
>>>>>>> **u/scruiser** [+1] *CYOA* (a day later)
|
|
>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>> Is doing puzzles in your spare time a failure mode? IRL, there is only so much I can plan and prepare for, so if it amuses me to devote spare effort to solving fictional or improbable situations is that really a failure mode?
|
|
>>>>>>>
|
|
>>>>>>> It is not like there is some shortage or scarcity of planning power I have as a human being. I do have a finite amount of time, but if I have time to enjoy myself with fiction, I have should also have time to plan for unrealistic or fictional scenarios. Its not like I've devoted financial resources to it. And people that do spend financial resources for say, Zombie Outbreaks, are also preparing themselves for a conventional disaster (Almost all of the things needed are the same: evacuation plans, a bug out bag, emergency food rations, etc.).
|
|
|
|
> **u/E-o_o-3** [+2] (11 hours later)
|
|
>
|
|
> Even if a doppleganger fould be found, I don't think most people would replicate birthmarks and scars for a joke. I'd believe *something* weird was happening, and time travel would be high enough on the list of options even before I did any "convincing".
|
|
>
|
|
> >If you can't, then you fade from existence.
|
|
>
|
|
> You know, that's .... *scary*? But, at the same time, I do have a back up copy of me, and I've sufficiently dissolved the philosophical weirdness surrounding "souls" and "continuity of self" this to be *okay* with it even if not particularly happy about it. My level of unhappiness would *mostly* be a function of the number of memories lost - the little extra dollop of angst from the breaking of continuity, while significant, wouldn't be nearly as bad as *really* dying.
|
|
>
|
|
> (Or do they have to go through the same time machine?)
|
|
|
|
> **u/notmy2ndopinion** [+2] *Concent of Saunt Edhar* (14 hours later)
|
|
>
|
|
> Wouldn't your future self just remember your present self in this circumstance and just repeat exactly what it took to convince yourself?
|
|
>
|
|
> And since it didn't happen right now, doesn't that mean that future you just failed?
|
|
|
|
>> **u/Kishoto** [+2] (a day later)
|
|
>>
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>> I posit forking timelines. So no :P
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> **u/Jace_MacLeod** [+2] (a day later)
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>
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> If my future self could name the master passwords I use for password databases and various devices, I'd be pretty convinced. Current me would reason that either they are from the future, or have access to sufficiently advanced decryption and hacking technology as to be rather dangerous. Either way, current me would want such a person on his side.
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> **u/Cruithne** [+1] *Light Sith epistemologist* (an hour later)
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>
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> Do I get to pick which year I visit, or is it a set time?
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>> **u/Kishoto** [+1] (a day later)
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>>
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>> You're free to choose the date and time. Location is static though. If your time machine is in London and you go back 10 years, you'll be in London. So you probably don't want to do this inside a building, lol.
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> **u/Nepene** [+1] (3 hours later)
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>
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> I would use my time travel password system to prove to myself who I am. I have one for time travel, shape shifting, body snatching, and ascension, and variants of all of those where I am being forced to send whatever message.
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>
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> If I saw a copy of myself I would be strongly implied to believe something weird had gone on.
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> **u/Empiricist_or_not** [+1] *Aspiring polite Hegemonizing swarm* (4 hours later)
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>
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> The easy way to test this is with lottery tickets or wide page stock return data. It's not just a good validation means but also a nice resource acquisition methodology.
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> **u/madcatlady** [+1] (4 hours later)
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>
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> I have a couple of secrets that I could use, dependent.
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>
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> Also, it depends on when I go back to...
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> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (5 minutes later)
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>
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> It shouldn't be hard. I know so much personal info that no one else knows.
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>
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> Or I could just go back to a date where somethng notable happened and predict it, or do any date with news headlines. The problem is that 24 hours is not a lot of time for predictions; it has to be something you couldn't know otherwise. Stock prices should do nicely.
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>
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> Or do all of the above.
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>> **u/Kishoto** [+2] (11 minutes later)
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>>
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>> The challenge then is breaking the barrier of disbelief. For stock prices, your past self might explain that away as a form of insider trading? I suppose it depends on how skeptical your past self is.
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>>> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (19 minutes later)
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>>>
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>>> If someone came to me now and gave me tomorrow's stock closing prices for 1000 stocks to the exact penny, there are two options: the market is rigged, or this person has some supernatural ability. I would say the time travel hypothesis is still slightly less likely, but combined with knowing personal info about me that no one should know, and future news headlines, it should convince me.
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> **u/itisike** [+1] *Dragon Army* (14 minutes later)
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>
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> In response to the edit: if I thought this scenario was at all likely, I would start memorizing proofs and stuff, but as I don't, no luck.
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>
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> So I still think I could convince myself just using my own secrets. You could choose the date, right?
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>
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> If it was recently, I would use my passwords, plus the motivations behind them. I've got at least some passphrases not stored anywhere and just used for encryption, so someone knowing those is strong evidence.
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>> **u/Kishoto** [+2] (33 minutes later)
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>>
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>> Yes, you can choose the date freely, although your location is static. So you'd have to ship your time machine where you needed it, if you've moved across the world or something similar.
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> **u/MugaSofer** [+0] (9 hours later)
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>
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> I actually attach pretty high probability to time travel being possible; it's predicted by GR, after all, and the most common objection seems to be "but that would confuse the way I think about causality!" Well, so does all the other implications of relativity.
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>
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> But, um, I don't have a password set up. Embarassing. I mean, I'd rather not precommit to helong any sod who reads my mind of tortures a clone of me or whatever, but still, it's unfortunate.
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>
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> Anyway, I'm actually really easy to convince, and I'd probably look pretty similar. I have a bunch of things I haven't told anyone, but those aren't *conclusive*, especially if timetravel is on the playing bard.
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>
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> Honestly, I think a good conversation would be enough for me to notice we had the exact same personality (I'm pretty weird): an having done that, I'd be an incredibly easy sell on the timetravel thing. Although I probably wouldn't mention the "fade from existence" bit until later, that's fairly specific and strange enough that it seems like a weird manipulation ploy or something. I trust myself.
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---
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