scrape_r_rational/data/cache2/3e2uus.md

## So, has anyone started writing "A Song of Ice and Fire and Rationality" yet?

* Author: u/thebeginningistheend *
* URL: https://www.reddit.com/r/rational/comments/3e2uus/so_has_anyone_started_writing_a_song_of_ice_and/
* Score: 15

* Created: 2015-07-21T15:12:41

### Post:



### Comments:

> **u/alexanderwales** [+23]  *Time flies like an arrow* (23 minutes later)
> 
> [Discussed here](https://www.reddit.com/r/rational/comments/2jlylx/rthfoneoff_short_storyrational_game_of_thrones/), but aside from that short I don't know of one. The problem is that we don't know enough about the magic to munchkin it, and the characters don't really behave irrationally enough that they need correction (most of the problems crop up from character traits and differing values rather than strict "you didn't think that through").
> 
> Edit: Also, [munchkin thread here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/rational/comments/39yvpn/munchkin_imp_game_of_thrones/).

>> **u/daydev** [+2]  (an hour later)
>> 
>> I haven't read the books, so maybe it's better there, but just from the TV show, I'd say there's a significant amount of irrationality, such as Spite Before Reason ([](#s "Cersei, Sand Snakes")), Passion Before Reason ([](#s "Jorah, Robb")), Honor Before Reason ([](#s "famously Eddard, also arguably ser Davos, he should've dumped Stannis long ago, imho")), Poor Communication Kills ([](#s "the Faceless and Arya")), and plain good ol' religious fanaticism ([](#s "Stannis, Sparrows")). Examples are not exhaustive.

>>> **u/PL_TOC** [+6]  (2 hours later)
>>> 
>>> I don't really see the relationship between the faceless and Arya as irrational. I liken it to the relationship between the master and disciple that is central to Zen. The master's task is to pass on an experiential understanding of the tradition, not an intellectual one. This involves methods that appear irrational or mystical to outsiders.

>>>> **u/daydev** [+1]  (2 hours later)
>>>> 
>>>> Well, even if the training methodology is sound (I personally don't think so, I think it's overly mysterious and purposely frustrating just for the sake of mystery and conflict in the story), I'd think the Faceless qualify for irrationality in this community just from their motto.

>>>>> **u/alexanderwales** [+12]  *Time flies like an arrow* (3 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> It's overly mysterious and purposefully frustrating in order to weed out unsuitable candidates. A lot of what they do is classic cult behavior; wear the candidate down with drudge work, entice them with mystery, break down their ties to the outside world, scrub away their individuality ("Who are you?" "No one"), etc. Part of this is to build up a dependency on the cult, part of it is to make the candidate feel like there are sunk costs, and part of it is to weed out people who aren't suitable. The only thing that marks the Faceless Men as different from a real-world cult is that they have an actual mystery at their core, rather than a faked mystery. This gives them even more of a reason to be mysterious and frustrating; they want to ensure that anyone they introduce to their secrets won't reveal them to the outside world, which would lose them one of their major institutional advantages.

>>> **u/alexanderwales** [+3]  *Time flies like an arrow* (an hour later)
>>> 
>>> I think [](#s "Eddard") is most commonly used as an example of "irrationality" but I really do think that this is a case of values; he'd rather die an honorable death than live a dishonorable life. For that reason, I don't think you can call it a lack of rationality, because rationality doesn't mean that you're changing your core values.
>>> 
>>> Some of the others are more arguable. I think I would defend religious fanaticism when there are actual, verifiable results that come from that religion. There's no excuse for [](#s "Cersei") though.

>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+1]  (an hour later)
>>>> 
>>>> His chief value is to keep his family safe and protected. This is something he singularly fails to achieve.

>>>>> **u/alexanderwales** [+9]  *Time flies like an arrow* (2 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> I think he has multiple values which come into conflict with each other (which is good characterization). Simply saying "his family was more important to him, ergo he should have behaved dishonorably from the time he got to King's Landing" is simplifying too much. His family *was* more important to him than honor (and I would argue that this is one of the chief reasons to believe [](#s "R+L=J")), but honor was also something that he valued. I don't think trying to do things as honorably as possible while protecting his family was that irrational.
>>>>> 
>>>>> As a comparison, it's like Batman trying to fight crime while also refusing to use guns or kill people. Those are both values that he holds, and there are some good stories that come from throwing those values into conflict.

>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+0]  (2 hours later)
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Ned is a more interesting and three-dimensional character than Rational!Harry. Harry is not three-dimensional, he's a diamond sharp *needle* pointed at exactly what he wants to achieve and utterly indifferent towards everything else. A Rational!Ned would be like that, less characterised, but still entertaining in a sense.

>>>>> **u/sparr** [+5]  (2 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> Is it? I think he is portrayed as being willing to sacrifice his family if that is the only honorable course of action.

>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+2]  (2 hours later)
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Then why does he forego his honour and confess to King Joffrey to protect Sansa?

>>>>>>> **u/sparr** [+2]  (2 hours later)
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Because he's not perfect.

>>>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [-4]  (2 hours later)
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> You mean because he's not rational.

>>>>>>>>> **u/sparr** [+5]  (10 hours later)
>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>> He's rational the other 99% of the time. That makes him more rational than the "rational" characters in most of the fiction lauded around here.

>>>>>>>>> **u/lehyde** [+3]  *Nudist Beach* (3 hours later)
>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>> I think he has the implicit belief that the way he acted (at first trying to protect his family and then being willing to die for honor), he will be rewarded by the gods in the afterlife. Which might actually be true.

>>>>>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [-2]  (3 hours later)
>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>> A modified Pascal's Wager?
>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>> That sort of undermines his claims to being a good or honourable person doesn't it?

>>>>>>>>>>> **u/FuguofAnotherWorld** [+2]  *Roll the Dice on Fate* (8 hours later)
>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>> It's not really Pascal's Wager if there is verifiable evidence of a higher power, though whether Ned saw that evidence in his lifetime is another question entirely.

>>>>>>>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+1]  (8 hours later)
>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>> If there was verifiable evidence then that reflects even more poorly on Ned.

>>>>>>>>>>>>> **u/FuguofAnotherWorld** [+1]  *Roll the Dice on Fate* (8 hours later)
>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>> How so?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+1]  (8 hours later)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Think it through.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If Ned is only good and honourable because that's the only way to go to Weirwood Heaven...then it is not really good or honourable. 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> And therefore the more certain he is that Weirwood Heaven exists then commensurately the less altruistic his motives can be for doing good in the first place.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> **u/FuguofAnotherWorld** [+2]  *Roll the Dice on Fate* (8 hours later)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Well it kind of is though. Being altruistic in your motives is mostly irrelevant to being honourable. 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Honour means doing what you say you will do and following a strict code of conduct in certain situations. In doing so you become predicable but also gain power because potential followers know you will not betray them if it becomes inconvenient, thus giving you access to greater numbers and quality of fighters (among other benefits). It doesn't really matter much if you're doing it because of earthly or heavenly rewards.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Good is different of course. Building an orphanage reflects better on me if I do it because I like orphans, rather than because the Pan-Galactic Space Cheese told me to, because the former I am more likely to do more good in the future whereas in the latter case I'm just as likely to burn it next week because the Space Cheese is fickle.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+1]  (9 hours later)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you can't understand the difference between being Honourable because you're an Honourable person and being honourable because you're being watched every second of every day by a bunch of overly-judgmental tree-gods who decide who gets to go to heaven, then, well, you don't really understand Honour.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> **u/FuguofAnotherWorld** [+1]  *Roll the Dice on Fate* (a day later)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'm pretty sure religion was a big part of the reason (or at least the explanation) for the traditional dark ages concept of honour. I figure if anyone understood honour, it would be those guys right? And to my knowledge most of them thought they were being judged every day, so I disagree.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> E: If you think honour is explicitly separate from religion, and the best analogue to Ned's honour is in the middle ages, then you must be talking about a type of honour which is different than Ned's honour.

>>>> **u/daydev** [+1]  (an hour later)
>>>> 
>>>> > he'd rather die an honorable death than live a dishonorable life
>>>> 
>>>> But in the end he tried to choose the dishonorable life after all, only it didn't work out. But I myself consider him the weakest example of those, I mentioned him because he's the most famous one. I consider [](#s "Cersei") the strongest, because it's a textbook "didn't think this through" Hoisted By Her Own Petard situation.

>>>>> **u/Uncaffeinated** [+1]  (14 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> Cersei can pretty much be summed up as "not as clever as she thinks she is".

>>> **u/LordSwedish** [+4]  *Q Continuum* (5 hours later)
>>> 
>>> I'm going to talk about Eddard here and this is going to spoil things from the latest season and book. You have been warned.
>>> 
>>> I hate it when people talk about Eddard as being "honourable to a fault" or having "honour before reason" because it's just not true. As soon as Eddard gets imprisoned the north rises up in rebellion and crowns Robb king of the north because they would do anything for Eddard and his house. They would go into war against the seven kingdoms if they had to because of their loyalty to the Starks.
>>> 
>>> While it isn't shown in the series, the books show how the north rebells against the Boltons in hatred because Roose Bolton helped kill Robb. The mountain clans of the north all join up with Stannis to march on Winterfell, the Manderlys join up with the Boltons by necessity but spend their entire time there insulting them and assassinating the Frey retinue present.
>>> 
>>> Eddard is an honourable man and acts honourably which has given him the most loyal and powerful kingdom out of the seven. He rules a land as large as the other six combined and everyone (with few exceptions) loves him and his house and know he can always be trusted. The north remembers and Eddard and his children will be followed to the ends of the earth.

>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [-1]  (6 hours later)
>>>> 
>>>> > it's just not true
>>>> 
>>>> It *is* true.
>>>> 
>>>> Yes, "Honour" is a useful method for earning trust outside family units and building the reciprocal relationships on which feudalism is built on.  But even a "Good Thing" can be a "Bad Thing" if done to excess. 
>>>> 
>>>> Ned was honourable and that's why people loved him. 
>>>> 
>>>> But he was *too* honourable and that's why they cheered as they took off his head.
>>>> 
>>>> Same thing with Robb.

>>>>> **u/LordSwedish** [+5]  *Q Continuum* (6 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> Well the people who cheered weren't northeners. The only northener in the crowd almost broke his vows to get Eddard's daughter to safety.
>>>>> 
>>>>> Throughout the series everyone else plays dirty and thus they keep winning but by the end of AdwD the Starks are basically the only house (neutral Martell aren't really relevant) that are still in a position of power. The Starks never compromise and err on the side of honour and therefore they are one of the most powerful houses despite not even having a member of their family not in hiding.
>>>>> 
>>>>> You could balance it out perfectly in theory but in reality that's almost impossible and making compromises would lead to more compromises if things got worse. The Starks stick to what they think is right and that's why they are left while the Lannisters, Baratheons, Tyrell's and all the others have fallen so much further as soon as they lose steam. The north remains as a base no matter what because the Starks are honourable no matter what.

>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [-2]  (7 hours later)
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> There comes a time when every man must compromise.

>>>>>>> **u/LordSwedish** [+2]  *Q Continuum* (15 hours later)
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> That would be the time when he forsakes his honour and legitimizes Joffrey's reign before being betrayed and executed.

>>> **u/None** [+3]  (4 hours later)
>>> 
>>> It sounds like your first three are the straw Vulcan fallacy (that a rational agent cannot choose their goals based on emotion). Similarly, I find it hard to find religious fanaticism irrational when the religious fanatics can literally perform miracles

>>>> **u/daydev** [+1]  (4 hours later)
>>>> 
>>>> I don't think so, I thought there was difference between taking emotions into consideration (instead of just dismissing them as 'unrational'), and just deciding on pure emotions. Otherwise you can claim that there's no irrational decisions, since biases are driven by emotions ultimately, and emotions are rational, ergo biases are rational.  
>>>> 
>>>> The religion that has some demonstrated results to it is arguable, but the other one totally qualifies.

>>>>> **u/None** [+1]  (5 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> I mean, there doesn't have to be any rational to deciding your goals - the rational part comes in enacting them.  There's certainly some irrationality there in their means, but most of what 'seems' irrational to us is just the aims, which really you can't rationally choose.
>>>>> 
>>>>> I think that in this world, you have to expect that any of the old religions that the great families follow probably have some truth to them.  Based on the advantage that we've seen the religions give you (look like any person, revive the dead, create a shadow vagina assasin, etc.) it's hard to believe that anyone who didn't have supernatural help would stay in a position of power very long.

>>>>>> **u/Uncaffeinated** [+1]  (14 hours later)
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> The Seven and the Drowned God haven't demonstrated any supernatural powers yet. Of course, that puts the major religions at 3/5.

>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+3]  (an hour later)
>> 
>> I don't think you need to worry about the magic. 
>> 
>> No PoV character (except Bran who you could just "Ron" off-screen) understands magic or can control it. All the characters with Magic can just act the same as their canon versions.

>>> **u/JackStargazer** [+8]  *Primordial Apologist* (2 hours later)
>>> 
>>> But the mere fact that magic verifiably exists and is accessible indicates that it is likely the most powerful optimizing agent in the setting. Any truly rational protagonist would seek it out.

>>>> **u/None** [+1]  (4 hours later)
>>>> 
>>>> It seems like there's not so much magic as there is miracles. Most of the project who can do magic seem to do it by praying to gods or taking leaps of faith

>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+1]  (2 hours later)
>>>> 
>>>> ....and then be utterly unable to utilize it.
>>>> 
>>>> GRRM's magic is *scientific method* proof.

>>>>> **u/alexanderwales** [+14]  *Time flies like an arrow* (2 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> As no one has actually tried the scientific method on magic, we can't know that. There are *some* magics that are only accessible by certain "special" people, like greenseeing and warging. But there are other magics that seem quite learnable, like the advanced alchemy used to create [](#s "Robert Strong"), (possibly) the kind the priests of R'hllor use, or whatever methods led Valyria to its doom.

>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+0]  (2 hours later)
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> > But there are other magics that seem quite learnable
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> I would dispute that point. I don't believe that Qyburn's (for instance) techniques are teachable or transferable. The guy has access to a medieval level of technology, how would he even begin to use that stuff to resurrect a human being? It's more reasonable to believe that Qyburn has a latent ability to cast necromantic spells and he simply obfuscates that ability by pretending that he is using some form of "Maester Learning" in order to throw off his enemies.

>>>>>>> **u/JackStargazer** [+8]  *Primordial Apologist* (3 hours later)
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> What about the Warlocks? They apparently gained their power from study and consumption of a plant. I'll remind that the infinity clones of the same man in the TV series are not at all the same as the ones from the books.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> And even if there are many powers only passed through bloodlines, a little selective breeding and effective child-rearing could help greatly with a long-term plan.

>>>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+2]  (3 hours later)
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> I think the key-issue here is "Time-Frame." But I think it's notable that this is exactly what Euron Greyjoy is doing.

>>>>> **u/daydev** [+3]  (2 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> Just burn some little girls, it's super effective.

>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+3]  (2 hours later)
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Believe me *I'm trying.*

>>>>> **u/lehyde** [+2]  *Nudist Beach* (3 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> Do you mean that like magic is granted by intelligent beings and if they see someone making systematic experiments they change the laws?

>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+2]  (3 hours later)
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> No, I just explained myself poorly.
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> It's like the Maesters. An order of medieval scientists who use science and rationality in order to explain and give order to the world. They do everything in their power to understand and control magic using the "scientific method" and have got precisely nowhere and now don't get anywhere anything magical with a ten-foot barge pole.
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> The big exception to that are Glass Candles. But even then, they seem to be extremely unpredictable. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. 
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Magic is "dark matter."

>>>>>>> **u/FuguofAnotherWorld** [+3]  *Roll the Dice on Fate* (7 hours later)
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> To my knowledge the Maesters actually use science and rationality to try to kill magic and drive it from the world because it fucks up their plans. That's why they spent generations poisoning the dragons, which incidentally were the sources of much of the magic in the world. The glass candles went out because there wasn't enough ambient magic because all the dragons were dead, and came back on because some more were born.

>>>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+1]  (8 hours later)
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> It fucks up their plans because they can't use it themselves.

>>>>>>>>> **u/FuguofAnotherWorld** [+4]  *Roll the Dice on Fate* (8 hours later)
>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>> Then they should have bloody well gone recruiting. They had generations to secure a magic-capable bloodline as a very powerful order of influential learned men. If it was a priority, they would have eventually succeeded.
>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>> No, I think they feared the Doom happening again and wiping out another civilisation. Feared it enough to make the destruction of magic a primary part of their mandate.

>>>>> **u/sparr** [+1]  (2 hours later)
>>>>> 
>>>>> They don't have to utilize it directly. Allying with the users, studying them, maybe even capturing and testing them?

>>>>>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+1]  (2 hours later)
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> That would certainly be an effective strategy to pursue. But I have two issues:
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> 1. That's pretty much what the OTL characters try to do.
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> 2.  People like Melisandre, Moqorro, Quaithe, Pyat Pree, Jaqen H'Gar....they can't be negotiated with or threatened to act against their own interests and the ultimate interests of their order. And they certainly can't be 'studied'.  This isn't X-Men and you're not Colonel Stryker.

> **u/TimeLoopedPowerGamer** [+7]  *Utopian Smut Peddler* (2 hours later)
> 
> Reddit has long been a hot spot for conversation on the internet. About 57 million people visit the site every day to chat about topics as varied as makeup, video games and pointers for power washing driveways.
> 
> In recent years, Reddit’s array of chats also have been a free teaching aid for companies like Google, OpenAI and Microsoft. Those companies are using Reddit’s conversations in the development of giant artificial intelligence systems that many in Silicon Valley think are on their way to becoming the tech industry’s next big thing.
> 
> Now Reddit wants to be paid for it. The company said on Tuesday that it planned to begin charging companies for access to its application programming interface, or A.P.I., the method through which outside entities can download and process the social network’s vast selection of person-to-person conversations.
> 
> “The Reddit corpus of data is really valuable,” Steve Huffman, founder and chief executive of Reddit, said in an interview. “But we don’t need to give all of that value to some of the largest companies in the world for free.”
> 
> The move is one of the first significant examples of a social network’s charging for access to the conversations it hosts for the purpose of developing A.I. systems like ChatGPT, OpenAI’s popular program. Those new A.I. systems could one day lead to big businesses, but they aren’t likely to help companies like Reddit very much. In fact, they could be used to create competitors — automated duplicates to Reddit’s conversations.
> 
> Reddit is also acting as it prepares for a possible initial public offering on Wall Street this year. The company, which was founded in 2005, makes most of its money through advertising and e-commerce transactions on its platform. Reddit said it was still ironing out the details of what it would charge for A.P.I. access and would announce prices in the coming weeks.
> 
> Reddit’s conversation forums have become valuable commodities as large language models, or L.L.M.s, have become an essential part of creating new A.I. technology.
> 
> L.L.M.s are essentially sophisticated algorithms developed by companies like Google and OpenAI, which is a close partner of Microsoft. To the algorithms, the Reddit conversations are data, and they are among the vast pool of material being fed into the L.L.M.s. to develop them.

> **u/None** [+7]  (8 hours later)
> 
> [deleted]

>> **u/DaystarEld** [+2]  *Pokémon Professor* (13 hours later)
>> 
>> ... how did I not hear of a Dresden Files/SoIaF crossfic before?
>> 
>> *bookmarks* Thanks!

> **u/Calamitizer** [+6]  *Shears* (5 hours later)
> 
> I maintain that it should be called "Game Theory of Thrones" (and actually be about game theory (and decision theory)).

>> **u/thebeginningistheend** [+8]  (5 hours later)
>> 
>> "So, you see then each prisoner can chose to cooperate with each other or conversely they can choose to defect..."
>> 
>> Roose Bolton: "DEFECT DEFECT DEFECT!"

> **u/322955469** [+3]  (3 hours later)
> 
> I'd rather see the wheel of time given a rational treatment, I think there is more meat there.

>> **u/None** [+2]  (19 hours later)
>> 
>> Have you seen [this?](https://www.fanfiction.net/s/7628608/2/Ta-veren) It hasn't updated since last spring, but what's there is pretty decent.

> **u/notmy2ndopinion** [+2]  *Concent of Saunt Edhar* (38 minutes later)
> 
> We need more information about Maesters and Oldtown, as well as blood magic and the Asshai, which I anticipate will be a significant part of Winds of Winter.

> **u/RMcD94** [+1]  (6 hours later)
> 
> There are a ton of SI (self-inserts) which are kind of rational on alternatehistory and SpaceBattles.
> 
> The best thing about these is it usually involves the introduction and effects of modern technology such as printing press and farming to the world.
> 
> There was one with a self-insert as Robert just as he won the Rebellion but I can't remember what it was called otherwise I would recommend it.

> **u/eniteris** [+1]  (22 hours later)
> 
> I've always wanted to make a retrocasual communications network tied to the number of dragons and the strength of magic. Would explain how the Targaryens won the last war.

---