1.2 KiB
[D] Happy Smallpox Eradication Day
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Author: u/None *
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URL:
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Score: 65
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Created: 2016-12-11T05:55:58
Post:
Comments:
u/xamueljones [+15] My arch-enemy is entropy (4 hours later)
Here's the link to 500 Million but Not a Single One More.
u/None [+1] (4 days later)
[deleted]
u/jaiwithani [+1] Insufficient data for a meaningful answer (13 days later)
I actually lost pretty badly on prediction markets this year. My bets were pretty much all on incorrect wishy washy analysis, not the quantitative exploits I've discussed elsewhere.
2016 has made me update strongly in the direction of "prediction markets have a lot of room to improve". I still expect them to, but we're not as far along as I thought we were.
Professionally, I'm working on investing algorithms for peer lending at the moment. I'm learning a lot and getting some promising results, and I hope to bring some of that to future prediction market analysis.
In the Rationalistsphere, I've helped put together a fledgling EA house in Seattle, and I just ran a Secular Solstice. As always, I plan to start blogging again any week now.