scrape_r_rational/data/cache2/5ri85i.md

## The Astronaut’s Lament

* Author: u/Ilverin *
* URL: http://alexanderwales.com/the-astronauts-lament/
* Score: 69

* Created: 2017-02-01T21:06:47

### Post:

[Link to content](http://alexanderwales.com/the-astronauts-lament/)

### Comments:

> **u/awesomeideas** [+15]  *Dai stiho, cousin.* (48 minutes later)
> 
> Then, just twelve minutes after the last person with knowledge of the deceit died, scientists figured out how to convert non-mages into mages.

>> **u/waylandertheslayer** [+4]  (an hour later)
>> 
>> Self-deception is a black swan bet, whether as an individual or a group - and even if only a few members of the group get to choose whether to deceive or not.

>>> **u/Chronophilia** [+2]  *sci-fi ≠ futurology* (18 hours later)
>>> 
>>> What's a black swan bet?

>>>> **u/waylandertheslayer** [+8]  (19 hours later)
>>>> 
>>>> It's a bet that has a very low chance of going wrong, but if/when it does, it wipes out all the gains you make plus a bit more (so the expected utility of it is negative, even if the odds of the bad part happening are super low).
>>>> 
>>>> It's like if you used the statement 'all swans are white' as an example of a certainty, and then someone discovered an entire new continent you had no way of knowing even existed and it had black swans on it (i.e. Australia). It's a pretty convincing deathblow to the notion of certainty.
>>>> 
>>>> [Wikipedia link for more reading.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)

>> **u/Ilverin** [+3]  (3 hours later)
>> 
>> The deceit is in the code itself which apparently isn't completely hidden in the time of the story (Fentwick discovered it by looking at  code then asked Gavin).

>> **u/boomfarmer** [+1]  *Trying to be helpful* (19 hours later)
>> 
>> That doesn't really affect the ending, though. You'll still need non-mages to perform interstellar transport. Even if you turn non-mages into mages on the receiving end, they're going to have a history of identifying as non-mages, and will hopefully be sympathetic to the non-mage goals.
>> 
>> The real problem would be when a method of turning mages into non-mages is made, which would allow mages to check up on the distant colonies.

>>> **u/Bowbreaker** [+2]  *Solitary Locust* (12 days later)
>>> 
>>> There will already be mages willing to undergo multi-year travels in order to witness other planets. Especially once the diminishing number of untalented results in low status mages not having many people below them anymore. Sacrificing three years of your life in order to become one of the rare Tau Ceti Mage-Lords is bound to sound like a good proposition to some.

> **u/None** [+5]  (14 hours later)
> 
> [deleted]

>> **u/alexanderwales** [+2]  *Time flies like an arrow* (a day later)
>> 
>> The story doesn't go into it, and isn't part of any continuity, but some of the base was [this post](http://alexanderwales.com/world-building-minorities/), originally an entry into the weekly challenge for /r/worldbuilding (prompt "Minorities"). Also the basis for a half-completed book sitting in my drafts folder.

>> **u/CCC_037** [+1]  (3 days later)
>> 
>> It does mention that mages generally inherit money from their Talented ancestors...

> **u/trekie140** [+3]  (18 hours later)
> 
> I like it, but I feel like there's something missing. Maybe it's just because I've seen this kind of reveal done before in other rational fiction that it feels like a cliche at this point. The story has some interesting ideas and I do like how it explores the relationship between scientists/engineers and the people who use their creations, but the direction it goes just seems rote and uninspired. I shouldn't be too hard on this thing since it does exactly what it's supposed to and does it perfectly well, I just found the reveal and ending a bit underwhelming.

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