valuations_of_ethereum

I kind of collect them, so here's a list of valuation models. Edits and feedback are welcome.

ETH Reports with price targets:

reddit.com/u/pa7x1 on eth
- If ETH was a money, we can get a lower bound: 15-64k (deflation based, long term target)
- If ETH was a yelding asset 8-33k+ we can get a short term value
- If ETH was a productive asset via DCF: 61k
electric capital on eth
- If ETH was silver 14k (2nd store of value)
- If ETH was copper 64k (minor commodity)
- If ETH gold 140k (digital store of value)
- If ETH was oil 1M (primary commodity)
- If ETH was a store of value: 22k-200k
- If ETH was a Payment network: 1k-50k
- If ETH was a Productive asset via DCF: 16k-57k
- If ETH was a Productive asset via PE: 13-160k
- If ETH was like the Euro: 32k
- If ETH was like the USD: 96k
reddit.com/u/squishchaos 's triple halving thesis - 30-150k perhaps temporarily
Standard and Charter Bank - 26-35k
ARK's Big Ideas 2022 slide deck: ETH at 150k
Coinbase,If ETH, post merge, was a productive asset via DCF: 5k
Arthur Hayes ETH 10k as a perpetual bond

Eth reports with no targets

2022 Hal Press - Ethereum — A Generational Investment
2021 GreyScale's report on eth
2021 Lyn Alden investment report on eth and the community reply with comments from Vitalik

On cryptoasset valuation in general

Bonus: Friends of ethfinance:

reddit.com/u/logristhebard https://tokenomicsexplained.com/
reddit.com/u/lifesmage and the rocketpool investment thesis

Endnote

My personal opinion is that valuation models argue whether something will go up 10% or 20% if it works. But the real question is if it works at all. You absolutely need to discount it by it's risk or it's a useless number. In fact the medium term price is best looked at as the expected value = * . Price changes seem to happen as we update our mental estimate of .

If ETH is 30-300k, then the current price implies a 90-99% estimation of failure by the market. I think the risk is lower than this, therefore the expected value is higher.

In cryptoassets the risk could be anywhere from 0-100%. If it's ~100% then all valuation models are useless, because it's all going to zero when a black swan hits. So the number we need to obsess about is the risk and its end to reach. That reflects the zero to one journey we are on.

I see it as most important to monitor the biggest risks and metrics: hacks/bugs, regulation, and product market fit compared to competitors. Also the team and founders. I think Eth is doing well.

To that end, some links on risk in defi: