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anz-2040.md

@@ -167,7 +167,7 @@ The deal collapses and ANZ chooses the US bloc. We keep the security relationshi
 
 ### VII. Boring decade
 
-AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down. This sits outside the Plan A probabilities above.
+AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down. This is outside the Plan A probabilities above.
 
 > "AI progress slows, and AI causes less disruption than expected."
 >
@@ -198,19 +198,15 @@ To illustrate the outcome, here's what a fictional Australian citizen might have
 
 ## Where we depart from AI 2040
 
-We condition on rapid AI progress and leave aside our roughly 35% chance that progress plateaus first. The boring decade remains visible above, but it is outside the Plan A probability denominator.
+We condition on rapid AI progress. The boring decade is visible above, but is outside the Plan A probability denominator.
+<!-- Claude: our plateau estimate is about 35%; it is excluded from the conditional Plan A arithmetic. -->
 
-AI 2040 gives Plan A a 72% chance of alignment and a 42% chance of a great future. It does not say what makes up the remaining 30%. We focus on dictatorship because of the risks laid out in Forethought's paper, [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power).
+AI 2040 leaves its aligned-but-not-great outcome undecomposed. Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category.
 
-AI 2040's 42% "great future" is global. It does not guarantee that ANZ remains democratic. We put homegrown autocracy after that outcome and give it a 30% conditional probability. This is our estimate, not AI 2040's. Under Plan A, the path is 42% x 30% = 12.6%. The other 29.4% reaches the later ANZ choices with political power still spread.
+AI 2040's "great future" is global. ANZ could still become autocratic, so we add that as a conditional risk using the mechanisms in Forethought's [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power).
+<!-- Claude: AI 2040 Plan A great future 0.42 x our conditional ANZ autocracy estimate 0.30 = 0.126 absolute; 0.42 x 0.70 = 0.294 remains plural. -->
 
-AI 2040 models energy consumption rising about eight times by 2040 and notes that proven mineral reserves cover decades of current extraction, but it does not price the tonnage needed for a robot economy growing every 6-12 months. Coal, uranium, energy trade, and Australian mine capacity are outside its model. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a))
-
-AI 2040's proposed division of technical safety work near the end of its preparation phase allocates about 1% to model character. We propose that ANZ specialise in this and related evaluation research (section 2).
-
-AI 2040 does share some US wealth abroad, but very unevenly. In 2032 its American dividend starts at $45,000 while adults outside the US and China average $1,200. By 2035 the figures are about $1M and $10,000. ANZ may do better than that generic non-US payment through superannuation and mining, but only if the gains are broadly owned. A rich national balance sheet can still leave the median household without economic leverage. ([AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root)) <!-- local evidence: main.md:553-557 -->
-
-We leave out a trans-Tasman split and a separate Australian decision during US sabotage operations because neither changes the main choices above.
+AI 2040 models energy use and mineral reserves, but not the tonnage required by a rapidly growing robot economy. We add ANZ's mineral exposure, public ownership, and hosting terms. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a))
 
 ## Sources and thanks