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Clarify Plan A and widen the decision tree

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anz-2040.md
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@@ -7,6 +7,14 @@ What can Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) actually decide if AI becomes much more
We start from [AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com), which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves.
## Our starting assumption
We assume the US chooses Plan A and China accepts: a verified slowdown with total research transparency.
> "To the surprise of many in DC, China proves receptive. They had been debating the same issues—social destabilization, job loss, rogue superintelligence - on their side of the Pacific. They had been looking forward to ‘The Chinese Century’ and thought that AI might disrupt their plans. And they had one extra reason to come to the table: the US continues to have more compute, more datacenters, and better models. They were worried about the things the US might do to them if it got to superintelligence first."
>
> AI Futures Project, [AI 2040: Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root) <!-- local evidence: main.md:181 -->
[![ANZ 2040: choices and possible futures](tree.svg)](tree.svg)
## What ANZ can do
@@ -15,6 +23,8 @@ We start from [AI 2040](https://ai-2040.com), which describes choices the United
The later choices need ordinary government machinery: royalty laws, approved sites, a way to pay a dividend, biosecurity capacity, and working relationships with other middle powers. None of this requires believing one precise AI forecast. It is cheap compared with discovering in 2029 that the legal and diplomatic work takes five years.
The technical preparation is set out in AI 2040's [alignment roadmap](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/alignment-roadmap).
AI 2040 does not say who should do this work:
> "In case access limitations fail, Plan A involves massive investments into biosecurity and other measures to improve the resilience of the world."
@@ -163,15 +173,7 @@ The deal collapses and ANZ chooses the US bloc. We keep the security relationshi
>
> Tom Davidson, [How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?](https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting) <!-- local evidence: davidson-middle-powers-plan.md:26-28 -->
### VII. Boring decade
AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down. This is outside the Plan A probabilities above.
> "AI progress slows, and AI causes less disruption than expected."
>
> UK Government Office for Science and AI Security Institute, [AI Scenarios 2030](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai) <!-- local evidence: govuk-ai-scenarios-2030.md:186 -->
### VIII. Middle-power concert
### VII. Middle-power concert
The US-China AI deal breaks down, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds together. ANZ pools its supply-chain and hosting leverage with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK. None could demand durable access alone. Together they may get terms and help write the rules.
@@ -179,7 +181,7 @@ The US-China AI deal breaks down, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds
>
> Leicht and Ball, [The Race Worth Winning](https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence) <!-- local evidence: fai-race-worth-winning.md:437-449 -->
### IX. ~~Homegrown autocracy~~ free beer and rugby for life
### VIII. ~~Homegrown autocracy~~ free beer and rugby for life
Here AI replaces most cognitive work. The government collects revenue from AI companies instead of workers. Workers lose their jobs and tax leverage, while automated security makes protests and elections easier to ignore.
@@ -196,12 +198,9 @@ To illustrate the outcome, here's what a fictional Australian citizen might have
## Where we depart from AI 2040
We condition on rapid AI progress. The boring decade is visible above, but is outside the Plan A probability denominator.
<!-- Claude: our plateau estimate is about 35%; it is excluded from the conditional Plan A arithmetic. -->
AI 2040 does not break down the 30% between alignment and what its supplement calls a "great future." Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category.
AI 2040 does not give ANZ its own outcome. We add an ANZ autocracy risk to its positive outcome for the reasons laid out in Forethought's paper, [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power).
AI 2040's expanded probability cells do not score democracy inside foreign middle powers. We add that question to its 42% branch using our 30% estimate, for the reasons laid out in Forethought's [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power).
<!-- Claude: AI 2040 Plan A great future 0.42 x our conditional ANZ autocracy estimate 0.30 = 0.126 absolute; 0.42 x 0.70 = 0.294 remains democratic. -->
AI 2040 models energy use and mineral reserves, but not the tonnage required by a rapidly growing robot economy. We add ANZ's mineral exposure, public ownership, and hosting terms. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a))
data/tree.json
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
{
"comment": "Claude: single source for tree.svg. Each item has a tier and left-to-right order. Stream width carries probability mass; exact values are tooltips, except the visible conditional ANZ estimate. Choice edges have uniform width. The HTML build fails if an href no longer matches a prose heading.",
"title": "Choose a path",
"canvas": {"w": 680, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150},
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@@ -12,28 +12,24 @@
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{"id": "F", "tier": 0, "order": 1, "kind": "robust", "href": "#2-train-specialists-2026-29", "title": "2. Train specialists", "sub": "alignment, security, and policy"},
{"id": "FORK", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "Does rapid AI progress continue?", "sub": ""},
{"id": "VII", "tier": 2, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vii-boring-decade", "title": "VII. Boring decade", "sub": "AI progress stalls"},
{"id": "PLAN", "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-this-could-leave-us", "title": "AI 2040 Plan A", "sub": ""},
{"id": "I", "tier": 3, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#i-doom-about-28", "title": "I. Doom", "sub": ""},
{"id": "BAD", "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ii-humans-retain-control-but-the-world-still-goes-badly", "title": "II. Humans retain control", "sub": "but the world still goes badly"},
{"id": "HOME", "tier": 3, "order": 2, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040", "title": "AI 2040's positive vision", "sub": "Does ANZ remain democratic?"},
{"id": "IX", "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "IX. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "citizens stop being needed"},
{"id": "B", "tier": 4, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029", "title": "3. Sign, or set our price?", "sub": "ANZ remains democratic"},
{"id": "E", "tier": 5, "order": 0, "kind": "anz", "href": "#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s", "title": "6. If the deal collapses", "sub": "US bloc, concert, or neutral?"},
{"id": "C", "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32", "title": "4. Host compute here?", "sub": "2030-32"},
{"id": "VIII", "tier": 6, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#viii-middle-power-concert", "title": "VIII. Middle-power concert", "sub": "allies bargain together"},
{"id": "V", "tier": 6, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#v-allied-compute-host", "title": "V. Allied compute host", "sub": "ANZ hosts US clusters"},
{"id": "VI", "tier": 7, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vi-garrison-ally", "title": "VI. Garrison ally", "sub": "ANZ joins the US bloc"},
{"id": "D", "tier": 7, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34", "title": "5. Tax it, own a share?", "sub": "2031-34"},
{"id": "III", "tier": 8, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iii-dividend-commonwealth", "title": "III. Dividend commonwealth", "sub": "households own a share"},
{"id": "IV", "tier": 8, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iv-quarry-economy", "title": "IV. Quarry economy", "sub": "no public stake"}
{"id": "PLAN", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global", "href": "https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root", "title": "US chooses Plan A", "sub": "verified slowdown + total research transparency"},
{"id": "I", "tier": 2, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#i-doom-about-28", "title": "I. Doom", "sub": ""},
{"id": "BAD", "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ii-humans-retain-control-but-the-world-still-goes-badly", "title": "II. Humans retain control", "sub": "but the world still goes badly"},
{"id": "HOME", "tier": 2, "order": 2, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040", "title": "AI 2040's 42% estimate", "sub": "Our question: does ANZ remain democratic?"},
{"id": "IX", "tier": 3, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#viii-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "VIII. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "citizens stop being needed"},
{"id": "B", "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029", "title": "3. Sign, or set our price?", "sub": "ANZ remains democratic"},
{"id": "E", "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "anz", "href": "#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s", "title": "6. If the deal collapses", "sub": "US bloc, concert, or neutral?"},
{"id": "C", "tier": 4, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32", "title": "4. Host compute here?", "sub": "2030-32"},
{"id": "VIII", "tier": 5, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vii-middle-power-concert", "title": "VII. Middle-power concert", "sub": "allies bargain together"},
{"id": "V", "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#v-allied-compute-host", "title": "V. Allied compute host", "sub": "ANZ hosts US clusters"},
{"id": "VI", "tier": 6, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vi-garrison-ally", "title": "VI. Garrison ally", "sub": "ANZ joins the US bloc"},
{"id": "D", "tier": 6, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34", "title": "5. Tax it, own a share?", "sub": "2031-34"},
{"id": "III", "tier": 7, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iii-dividend-commonwealth", "title": "III. Dividend commonwealth", "sub": "households own a share"},
{"id": "IV", "tier": 7, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iv-quarry-economy", "title": "IV. Quarry economy", "sub": "no public stake"}
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{"from": "A", "to": "FORK", "choice": true},
{"from": "F", "to": "FORK", "choice": true},
{"from": "FORK", "to": "VII", "choice": true, "dashed": true},
{"from": "FORK", "to": "PLAN", "flow": 1.0, "tooltip": "Conditional on rapid AI progress"},
{"from": "A", "to": "PLAN", "choice": true},
{"from": "F", "to": "PLAN", "choice": true},
{"from": "PLAN", "to": "I", "flow": 0.28, "label": "misaligned!", "tooltip": "28% misaligned takeover (AI 2040 supplement)"},
{"from": "PLAN", "to": "BAD", "flow": 0.30, "tooltip": "30% aligned without a 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement)"},
{"from": "PLAN", "to": "HOME", "flow": 0.42, "tooltip": "42% 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement)"},
index.html
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@@ -22,9 +22,8 @@ table { border-collapse: collapse; margin: 1.2rem 0; font-size: .92rem; }
th,td { text-align: left; padding: .35rem .8rem; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--rule); }
thead th { border-bottom: 2px solid #999; }
code { font-family: ui-monospace, Menlo, Consolas, monospace; font-size: .88em; }
/* the tree is a tall, narrow two-per-row flow; cap its width and centre it so the text
stays a legible size (a wide canvas stretched to the column would shrink the text) */
.tree { margin: 1.5rem auto; max-width: 560px; overflow-x: auto; }
/* Claude: one responsive tree fills the viewport without a separate scrolling layout. */
.tree { width: 100vw; margin: 1.5rem 50%; transform: translateX(-50%); }
.tree svg { width: 100%; height: auto; display: block; }
@media (max-width: 600px) {
body { margin-top: 2rem; }
@@ -41,135 +40,132 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
<p>What can Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) actually decide if AI becomes much more powerful over the next decade?</p>
<p>We start from <a href="https://ai-2040.com">AI 2040</a>, which describes choices the United States and China could make. We zoom in on what those choices would mean for ANZ, and what we could still do ourselves.</p>
<figure class="tree"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 680 1157" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="14">
<rect width="680" height="1157" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="340" y="82" text-anchor="middle" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#111">Choose a path</text>
<path d="M217,150 C217,180 340,180 340,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<path d="M523,150 C523,180 340,180 340,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
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<path d="M340,265 C340,294 441,294 441,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="26.0"><title>Conditional on rapid AI progress</title></path>
<path d="M441,380 C441,410 88,410 88,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.3"><title>28% misaligned takeover (AI 2040 supplement)</title></path>
<path d="M441,380 C441,410 311,410 311,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.8"><title>30% aligned without a &#x27;great future&#x27; (AI 2040 supplement)</title></path>
<path d="M441,380 C441,410 563,410 563,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="10.9"><title>42% &#x27;great future&#x27; (AI 2040 supplement)</title></path>
<path d="M563,495 C563,524 210,524 210,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="3.3"><title>30% conditional on AI 2040&#x27;s positive outcome; 12.6% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)</title></path>
<path d="M563,495 C563,524 459,524 459,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.6"><title>70% conditional on AI 2040&#x27;s positive outcome; 29.4% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)</title></path>
<path d="M459,610 C459,640 463,640 463,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
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<text x="387" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">30% (our estimate)</text>
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<text x="466" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">host it</text>
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<h2 id="our-starting-assumption">Our starting assumption</h2>
<p>We assume the US chooses Plan A and China accepts: a verified slowdown with total research transparency.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"To the surprise of many in DC, China proves receptive. They had been debating the same issues—social destabilization, job loss, rogue superintelligence - on their side of the Pacific. They had been looking forward to ‘The Chinese Century’ and thought that AI might disrupt their plans. And they had one extra reason to come to the table: the US continues to have more compute, more datacenters, and better models. They were worried about the things the US might do to them if it got to superintelligence first."</p>
<p>AI Futures Project, <a href="https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root">AI 2040: Plan A</a></p>
</blockquote>
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<rect width="760" height="1042" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="380" y="82" text-anchor="middle" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#111">Choose a path</text>
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<path d="M563,150 C563,180 380,180 380,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<path d="M380,265 C380,294 102,294 102,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.3"><title>28% misaligned takeover (AI 2040 supplement)</title></path>
<path d="M380,265 C380,294 325,294 325,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.8"><title>30% aligned without a &#x27;great future&#x27; (AI 2040 supplement)</title></path>
<path d="M380,265 C380,294 603,294 603,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="10.9"><title>42% &#x27;great future&#x27; (AI 2040 supplement)</title></path>
<path d="M603,380 C603,410 250,410 250,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="3.3"><title>30% conditional on AI 2040&#x27;s positive outcome; 12.6% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)</title></path>
<path d="M603,380 C603,410 506,410 506,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.6"><title>70% conditional on AI 2040&#x27;s positive outcome; 29.4% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)</title></path>
<path d="M506,495 C506,524 503,524 503,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
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<path d="M592,582 C647,582 647,812 574,812" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
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<text x="241" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">misaligned!</text>
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<text x="427" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">30% (our estimate)</text>
<rect x="457" y="510" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="504" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
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<a href="#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28"><title>1. Prepare early — 2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies</title>
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<text x="217" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">1. Prepare early</text>
<text x="217" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies</text>
<rect x="95" y="94" width="322" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="257" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">1. Prepare early</text>
<text x="257" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies</text>
</a>
<a href="#2-train-specialists-2026-29"><title>2. Train specialists — alignment, security, and policy</title>
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<text x="523" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2. Train specialists</text>
<text x="523" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">alignment, security, and policy</text>
<rect x="462" y="94" width="203" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="563" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2. Train specialists</text>
<text x="563" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">alignment, security, and policy</text>
</a>
<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>Does rapid AI progress continue?</title>
<rect x="210" y="209" width="260" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="340" y="241" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">Does rapid AI progress continue?</text>
</a>
<a href="#vii-boring-decade"><title>VII. Boring decade — AI progress stalls</title>
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<text x="243" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VII. Boring decade</text>
<text x="243" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">AI progress stalls</text>
</a>
<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>AI 2040 Plan A</title>
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<text x="441" y="356" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">AI 2040 Plan A</text>
<a href="https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root"><title>US chooses Plan A — verified slowdown + total research transparency</title>
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<text x="380" y="234" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">US chooses Plan A</text>
<text x="380" y="250" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">verified slowdown + total research transparency</text>
</a>
<a href="#i-doom-about-28"><title>I. Doom</title>
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<text x="88" y="471" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">I. Doom</text>
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<text x="102" y="356" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">I. Doom</text>
</a>
<a href="#ii-humans-retain-control-but-the-world-still-goes-badly"><title>II. Humans retain control — but the world still goes badly</title>
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<text x="311" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">II. Humans retain control</text>
<text x="311" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">but the world still goes badly</text>
<rect x="221" y="324" width="208" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="325" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">II. Humans retain control</text>
<text x="325" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">but the world still goes badly</text>
</a>
<a href="#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040"><title>AI 2040&#x27;s positive vision — Does ANZ remain democratic?</title>
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<text x="563" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">AI 2040&#x27;s positive vision</text>
<text x="563" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">Does ANZ remain democratic?</text>
<a href="#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040"><title>AI 2040&#x27;s 42% estimate — Our question: does ANZ remain democratic?</title>
<rect x="473" y="324" width="260" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="603" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">AI 2040&#x27;s 42% estimate</text>
<text x="603" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">Our question: does ANZ remain democratic?</text>
</a>
<a href="#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life"><title>IX. Homegrown autocracy — citizens stop being needed</title>
<rect x="113" y="554" width="194" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="210" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IX. Homegrown autocracy</text>
<text x="210" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">citizens stop being needed</text>
<a href="#viii-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life"><title>VIII. Homegrown autocracy — citizens stop being needed</title>
<rect x="146" y="439" width="208" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="250" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VIII. Homegrown autocracy</text>
<text x="250" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">citizens stop being needed</text>
</a>
<a href="#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029"><title>3. Sign, or set our price? — ANZ remains democratic</title>
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<text x="459" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">3. Sign, or set our price?</text>
<text x="459" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ remains democratic</text>
<rect x="398" y="439" width="216" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="506" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">3. Sign, or set our price?</text>
<text x="506" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ remains democratic</text>
</a>
<a href="#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s"><title>6. If the deal collapses — US bloc, concert, or neutral?</title>
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<text x="228" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">6. If the deal collapses</text>
<text x="228" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">US bloc, concert, or neutral?</text>
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<text x="268" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">6. If the deal collapses</text>
<text x="268" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">US bloc, concert, or neutral?</text>
</a>
<a href="#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32"><title>4. Host compute here? — 2030-32</title>
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<text x="463" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">4. Host compute here?</text>
<text x="463" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2030-32</text>
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<text x="503" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">4. Host compute here?</text>
<text x="503" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2030-32</text>
</a>
<a href="#viii-middle-power-concert"><title>VIII. Middle-power concert — allies bargain together</title>
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<text x="225" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VIII. Middle-power concert</text>
<text x="225" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">allies bargain together</text>
<a href="#vii-middle-power-concert"><title>VII. Middle-power concert — allies bargain together</title>
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<text x="265" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VII. Middle-power concert</text>
<text x="265" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">allies bargain together</text>
</a>
<a href="#v-allied-compute-host"><title>V. Allied compute host — ANZ hosts US clusters</title>
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<text x="470" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">V. Allied compute host</text>
<text x="470" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ hosts US clusters</text>
<rect x="413" y="669" width="187" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="506" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">V. Allied compute host</text>
<text x="506" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ hosts US clusters</text>
</a>
<a href="#vi-garrison-ally"><title>VI. Garrison ally — ANZ joins the US bloc</title>
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<text x="221" y="924" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VI. Garrison ally</text>
<text x="221" y="940" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ joins the US bloc</text>
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<text x="261" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VI. Garrison ally</text>
<text x="261" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ joins the US bloc</text>
</a>
<a href="#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34"><title>5. Tax it, own a share? — 2031-34</title>
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<text x="437" y="924" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">5. Tax it, own a share?</text>
<text x="437" y="940" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2031-34</text>
<rect x="380" y="784" width="194" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="477" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">5. Tax it, own a share?</text>
<text x="477" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2031-34</text>
</a>
<a href="#iii-dividend-commonwealth"><title>III. Dividend commonwealth — households own a share</title>
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<text x="239" y="1039" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">III. Dividend commonwealth</text>
<text x="239" y="1055" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">households own a share</text>
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<text x="279" y="924" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">III. Dividend commonwealth</text>
<text x="279" y="940" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">households own a share</text>
</a>
<a href="#iv-quarry-economy"><title>IV. Quarry economy — no public stake</title>
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<text x="470" y="1039" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IV. Quarry economy</text>
<text x="470" y="1055" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">no public stake</text>
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<text x="510" y="924" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IV. Quarry economy</text>
<text x="510" y="940" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">no public stake</text>
</a>
</svg></figure>
<h2 id="what-anz-can-do">What ANZ can do</h2>
<h3 id="1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28">1. Prepare before it looks urgent (2026-28)</h3>
<p>The later choices need ordinary government machinery: royalty laws, approved sites, a way to pay a dividend, biosecurity capacity, and working relationships with other middle powers. None of this requires believing one precise AI forecast. It is cheap compared with discovering in 2029 that the legal and diplomatic work takes five years.</p>
<p>The technical preparation is set out in AI 2040's <a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/alignment-roadmap">alignment roadmap</a>.</p>
<p>AI 2040 does not say who should do this work:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"In case access limitations fail, Plan A involves massive investments into biosecurity and other measures to improve the resilience of the world."</p>
@@ -276,19 +272,13 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
<p>"The only alternative that makes sense to me is <em>siding with China.</em>"</p>
<p>Tom Davidson, <a href="https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting">How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?</a></p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="vii-boring-decade">VII. Boring decade</h3>
<p>AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down. This is outside the Plan A probabilities above.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"AI progress slows, and AI causes less disruption than expected."</p>
<p>UK Government Office for Science and AI Security Institute, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai">AI Scenarios 2030</a></p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="viii-middle-power-concert">VIII. Middle-power concert</h3>
<h3 id="vii-middle-power-concert">VII. Middle-power concert</h3>
<p>The US-China AI deal breaks down, but a coalition formed before the crisis holds together. ANZ pools its supply-chain and hosting leverage with Japan, Korea, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK. None could demand durable access alone. Together they may get terms and help write the rules.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"Coordination, done right, reassures partners that they can focus on their comparative advantage instead of pursuing full autarky; and it enables powers to see eye to eye with AI exporters instead of being picked off by great powers offering rewards for defection one by one."</p>
<p>Leicht and Ball, <a href="https://www.thefai.org/posts/the-race-worth-winning-middle-powers-in-the-age-of-machine-intelligence">The Race Worth Winning</a></p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life">IX. <del>Homegrown autocracy</del> free beer and rugby for life</h3>
<h3 id="viii-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life">VIII. <del>Homegrown autocracy</del> free beer and rugby for life</h3>
<p>Here AI replaces most cognitive work. The government collects revenue from AI companies instead of workers. Workers lose their jobs and tax leverage, while automated security makes protests and elections easier to ignore.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"AI could create a similar effect: if governments can generate massive revenue from taxing AI projects rather than citizens, heads of state may lose their economic incentive to ensure citizens prosper. This would weaken citizens’ power to resist coup and backsliding attempts."</p>
@@ -300,9 +290,8 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
<p>Luckily we completely dodged authoritarianism and now Benevolent Prime Minister for Life (BDFL) leads us through. Everyone is very happy, especially since the free beer, rugby, and netball are a great respite from our quickly shrinking population and the ever more confusing global situation. - Joe Citizen, 2041</p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="where-we-depart-from-ai-2040">Where we depart from AI 2040</h2>
<p>We condition on rapid AI progress. The boring decade is visible above, but is outside the Plan A probability denominator.</p>
<p>AI 2040 does not break down the 30% between alignment and what its supplement calls a "great future." Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category.</p>
<p>AI 2040 does not give ANZ its own outcome. We add an ANZ autocracy risk to its positive outcome for the reasons laid out in Forethought's paper, <a href="https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power"><em>AI-Enabled Coups</em></a>.</p>
<p>AI 2040's expanded probability cells do not score democracy inside foreign middle powers. We add that question to its 42% branch using our 30% estimate, for the reasons laid out in Forethought's <a href="https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power"><em>AI-Enabled Coups</em></a>.</p>
<p>AI 2040 models energy use and mineral reserves, but not the tonnage required by a rapidly growing robot economy. We add ANZ's mineral exposure, public ownership, and hosting terms. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a">Economics of Plan A</a>)</p>
<h2 id="sources-and-thanks">Sources and thanks</h2>
<p>This is built from the AI Futures Project's <a href="https://ai-2040.com">AI 2040</a> scenario and supplements. Their caveat applies to our use of the numbers too: the economic model "plausibly contains bugs" and they do not trust its outputs to be accurate. The local source mirrors retain exact line references for auditing.</p>
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<text x="387" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">30% (our estimate)</text>
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<text x="461" y="638" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
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<text x="466" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">host it</text>
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<text x="607" y="812" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stay supplier</text>
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<text x="227" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">concert</text>
<rect x="55" y="800" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="83" y="812" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">US bloc</text>
<rect x="294" y="970" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="338" y="982" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">public stake</text>
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<text x="453" y="982" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">no stake</text>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 760 1042" font-family="Georgia, serif" font-size="14">
<rect width="760" height="1042" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="380" y="82" text-anchor="middle" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#111">Choose a path</text>
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<path d="M563,150 C563,180 380,180 380,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<path d="M380,265 C380,294 102,294 102,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.3"><title>28% misaligned takeover (AI 2040 supplement)</title></path>
<path d="M380,265 C380,294 325,294 325,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.8"><title>30% aligned without a &#x27;great future&#x27; (AI 2040 supplement)</title></path>
<path d="M380,265 C380,294 603,294 603,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="10.9"><title>42% &#x27;great future&#x27; (AI 2040 supplement)</title></path>
<path d="M603,380 C603,410 250,410 250,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="3.3"><title>30% conditional on AI 2040&#x27;s positive outcome; 12.6% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)</title></path>
<path d="M603,380 C603,410 506,410 506,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.6"><title>70% conditional on AI 2040&#x27;s positive outcome; 29.4% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)</title></path>
<path d="M506,495 C506,524 503,524 503,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<path d="M506,495 C506,524 268,524 268,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0" stroke-dasharray="5 5"></path>
<path d="M503,610 C503,640 506,640 506,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<path d="M592,582 C647,582 647,812 574,812" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<path d="M268,610 C268,640 265,640 265,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<path d="M168,582 C123,582 123,812 186,812" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<path d="M477,840 C477,870 279,870 279,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<path d="M477,840 C477,870 510,870 510,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"></path>
<rect x="200" y="280" width="83" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="241" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">misaligned!</text>
<rect x="362" y="396" width="129" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="427" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">30% (our estimate)</text>
<rect x="457" y="510" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="504" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
<rect x="476" y="626" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="504" y="638" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">host it</text>
<rect x="599" y="685" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="647" y="697" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stay supplier</text>
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<text x="267" y="638" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">concert</text>
<rect x="95" y="685" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="123" y="697" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">US bloc</text>
<rect x="334" y="856" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="378" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">public stake</text>
<rect x="462" y="856" width="63" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
<text x="493" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">no stake</text>
<a href="#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28"><title>1. Prepare early — 2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies</title>
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<text x="217" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">1. Prepare early</text>
<text x="217" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies</text>
<rect x="95" y="94" width="322" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="257" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">1. Prepare early</text>
<text x="257" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies</text>
</a>
<a href="#2-train-specialists-2026-29"><title>2. Train specialists — alignment, security, and policy</title>
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<text x="523" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2. Train specialists</text>
<text x="523" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">alignment, security, and policy</text>
<rect x="462" y="94" width="203" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="563" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2. Train specialists</text>
<text x="563" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">alignment, security, and policy</text>
</a>
<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>Does rapid AI progress continue?</title>
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<text x="340" y="241" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">Does rapid AI progress continue?</text>
</a>
<a href="#vii-boring-decade"><title>VII. Boring decade — AI progress stalls</title>
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<text x="243" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VII. Boring decade</text>
<text x="243" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">AI progress stalls</text>
</a>
<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>AI 2040 Plan A</title>
<rect x="366" y="324" width="150" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="441" y="356" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">AI 2040 Plan A</text>
<a href="https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root"><title>US chooses Plan A — verified slowdown + total research transparency</title>
<rect x="233" y="209" width="294" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="380" y="234" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">US chooses Plan A</text>
<text x="380" y="250" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">verified slowdown + total research transparency</text>
</a>
<a href="#i-doom-about-28"><title>I. Doom</title>
<rect x="12" y="439" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="88" y="471" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">I. Doom</text>
<rect x="27" y="324" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="102" y="356" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">I. Doom</text>
</a>
<a href="#ii-humans-retain-control-but-the-world-still-goes-badly"><title>II. Humans retain control — but the world still goes badly</title>
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<text x="311" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">II. Humans retain control</text>
<text x="311" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">but the world still goes badly</text>
<rect x="221" y="324" width="208" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="325" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">II. Humans retain control</text>
<text x="325" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">but the world still goes badly</text>
</a>
<a href="#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040"><title>AI 2040&#x27;s positive vision — Does ANZ remain democratic?</title>
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<text x="563" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">AI 2040&#x27;s positive vision</text>
<text x="563" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">Does ANZ remain democratic?</text>
<a href="#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040"><title>AI 2040&#x27;s 42% estimate — Our question: does ANZ remain democratic?</title>
<rect x="473" y="324" width="260" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="603" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">AI 2040&#x27;s 42% estimate</text>
<text x="603" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">Our question: does ANZ remain democratic?</text>
</a>
<a href="#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life"><title>IX. Homegrown autocracy — citizens stop being needed</title>
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<text x="210" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IX. Homegrown autocracy</text>
<text x="210" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">citizens stop being needed</text>
<a href="#viii-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life"><title>VIII. Homegrown autocracy — citizens stop being needed</title>
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<text x="250" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VIII. Homegrown autocracy</text>
<text x="250" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">citizens stop being needed</text>
</a>
<a href="#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029"><title>3. Sign, or set our price? — ANZ remains democratic</title>
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<text x="459" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">3. Sign, or set our price?</text>
<text x="459" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ remains democratic</text>
<rect x="398" y="439" width="216" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="506" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">3. Sign, or set our price?</text>
<text x="506" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ remains democratic</text>
</a>
<a href="#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s"><title>6. If the deal collapses — US bloc, concert, or neutral?</title>
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<text x="228" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">6. If the deal collapses</text>
<text x="228" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">US bloc, concert, or neutral?</text>
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<text x="268" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">6. If the deal collapses</text>
<text x="268" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">US bloc, concert, or neutral?</text>
</a>
<a href="#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32"><title>4. Host compute here? — 2030-32</title>
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<text x="463" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">4. Host compute here?</text>
<text x="463" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2030-32</text>
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<text x="503" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">4. Host compute here?</text>
<text x="503" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2030-32</text>
</a>
<a href="#viii-middle-power-concert"><title>VIII. Middle-power concert — allies bargain together</title>
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<text x="225" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VIII. Middle-power concert</text>
<text x="225" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">allies bargain together</text>
<a href="#vii-middle-power-concert"><title>VII. Middle-power concert — allies bargain together</title>
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<text x="265" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VII. Middle-power concert</text>
<text x="265" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">allies bargain together</text>
</a>
<a href="#v-allied-compute-host"><title>V. Allied compute host — ANZ hosts US clusters</title>
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<text x="470" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">V. Allied compute host</text>
<text x="470" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ hosts US clusters</text>
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<text x="506" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">V. Allied compute host</text>
<text x="506" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ hosts US clusters</text>
</a>
<a href="#vi-garrison-ally"><title>VI. Garrison ally — ANZ joins the US bloc</title>
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<text x="221" y="924" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VI. Garrison ally</text>
<text x="221" y="940" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ joins the US bloc</text>
<rect x="186" y="784" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="261" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VI. Garrison ally</text>
<text x="261" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ joins the US bloc</text>
</a>
<a href="#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34"><title>5. Tax it, own a share? — 2031-34</title>
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<text x="437" y="924" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">5. Tax it, own a share?</text>
<text x="437" y="940" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2031-34</text>
<rect x="380" y="784" width="194" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="477" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">5. Tax it, own a share?</text>
<text x="477" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2031-34</text>
</a>
<a href="#iii-dividend-commonwealth"><title>III. Dividend commonwealth — households own a share</title>
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<text x="239" y="1039" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">III. Dividend commonwealth</text>
<text x="239" y="1055" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">households own a share</text>
<rect x="171" y="899" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="279" y="924" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">III. Dividend commonwealth</text>
<text x="279" y="940" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">households own a share</text>
</a>
<a href="#iv-quarry-economy"><title>IV. Quarry economy — no public stake</title>
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<text x="470" y="1039" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IV. Quarry economy</text>
<text x="470" y="1055" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">no public stake</text>
<rect x="431" y="899" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
<text x="510" y="924" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IV. Quarry economy</text>
<text x="510" y="940" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">no public stake</text>
</a>
</svg>
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