Clarify the conditional ANZ autocracy branch

anz-2040.md

@@ -203,7 +203,7 @@ We condition on rapid AI progress. The boring decade is visible above, but is ou
 
 AI 2040 leaves its aligned-but-not-great outcome undecomposed. Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category.
 
-AI 2040's "great future" is global. ANZ could still become autocratic, so we add that as a conditional risk using the mechanisms in Forethought's [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power).
+AI 2040's "great future" is global. ANZ could still become autocratic, so we add that risk for the reasons laid out in Forethought's paper, [*AI-Enabled Coups*](https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power).
 <!-- Claude: AI 2040 Plan A great future 0.42 x our conditional ANZ autocracy estimate 0.30 = 0.126 absolute; 0.42 x 0.70 = 0.294 remains plural. -->
 
 AI 2040 models energy use and mineral reserves, but not the tonnage required by a rapidly growing robot economy. We add ANZ's mineral exposure, public ownership, and hosting terms. ([Economics of Plan A](https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a))

data/tree.json

@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@
   {"from": "PC",   "to": "BAD",  "flow": 0.30, "label": "not great"},
   {"from": "PC",   "to": "HOME", "flow": 0.42, "label": "42% great globally"},
   {"from": "HOME", "to": "IX",   "flow": 0.126, "label": "30% conditional (ours)"},
-  {"from": "HOME", "to": "B",    "flow": 0.294, "label": "remains democratic", "route": "outside-right"},
+  {"from": "HOME", "to": "B",    "flow": 0.294, "route": "outside-right"},
   {"from": "B",    "to": "C",    "choice": true, "label": "set our price"},
   {"from": "B",    "to": "E",    "choice": true, "dashed": true},
   {"from": "C",    "to": "V",    "choice": true, "label": "host it"},

index.html

@@ -74,8 +74,6 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
 <text x="433" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">42% great globally</text>
 <rect x="242" y="626" width="155" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
 <text x="320" y="638" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">30% conditional (ours)</text>
-<rect x="552" y="628" width="129" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="616" y="640" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">remains democratic</text>
 <rect x="393" y="740" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
 <text x="441" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
 <rect x="418" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
@@ -292,7 +290,7 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
 <p>Tom Davidson, <a href="https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-the-middle-powers-avoid-getting">How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced?</a></p>
 </blockquote>
 <h3 id="vii-boring-decade">VII. Boring decade</h3>
-<p>AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down. This sits outside the Plan A probabilities above.</p>
+<p>AI stalls or governments shut the frontier down. This is outside the Plan A probabilities above.</p>
 <blockquote>
 <p>"AI progress slows, and AI causes less disruption than expected."</p>
 <p>UK Government Office for Science and AI Security Institute, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai/ai-scenarios-2030-helping-policymakers-plan-for-the-future-of-ai">AI Scenarios 2030</a></p>
@@ -315,13 +313,10 @@ footer { margin-top: 3rem; padding-top: 1rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--rule);
 <p>Luckily we completely dodged authoritarianism and now Benevolent Prime Minister for Life (BDFL) leads us through. Everyone is very happy, especially since the free beer, rugby, and netball are a great respite from our quickly shrinking population and the ever more confusing global situation. - Joe Citizen, 2041</p>
 </blockquote>
 <h2 id="where-we-depart-from-ai-2040">Where we depart from AI 2040</h2>
-<p>We condition on rapid AI progress and leave aside our roughly 35% chance that progress plateaus first. The boring decade remains visible above, but it is outside the Plan A probability denominator.</p>
-<p>AI 2040 gives Plan A a 72% chance of alignment and a 42% chance of a great future. It does not say what makes up the remaining 30%. We focus on dictatorship because of the risks laid out in Forethought's paper, <a href="https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power"><em>AI-Enabled Coups</em></a>.</p>
-<p>AI 2040's 42% "great future" is global. It does not guarantee that ANZ remains democratic. We put homegrown autocracy after that outcome and give it a 30% conditional probability. This is our estimate, not AI 2040's. Under Plan A, the path is 42% x 30% = 12.6%. The other 29.4% reaches the later ANZ choices with political power still spread.</p>
-<p>AI 2040 models energy consumption rising about eight times by 2040 and notes that proven mineral reserves cover decades of current extraction, but it does not price the tonnage needed for a robot economy growing every 6-12 months. Coal, uranium, energy trade, and Australian mine capacity are outside its model. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a">Economics of Plan A</a>)</p>
-<p>AI 2040's proposed division of technical safety work near the end of its preparation phase allocates about 1% to model character. We propose that ANZ specialise in this and related evaluation research (section 2).</p>
-<p>AI 2040 does share some US wealth abroad, but very unevenly. In 2032 its American dividend starts at $45,000 while adults outside the US and China average $1,200. By 2035 the figures are about $1M and $10,000. ANZ may do better than that generic non-US payment through superannuation and mining, but only if the gains are broadly owned. A rich national balance sheet can still leave the median household without economic leverage. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root">AI 2040</a>)</p>
-<p>We leave out a trans-Tasman split and a separate Australian decision during US sabotage operations because neither changes the main choices above.</p>
+<p>We condition on rapid AI progress. The boring decade is visible above, but is outside the Plan A probability denominator.</p>
+<p>AI 2040 leaves its aligned-but-not-great outcome undecomposed. Someone else's empire is one possibility, not the whole category.</p>
+<p>AI 2040's "great future" is global. ANZ could still become autocratic, so we add that risk for the reasons laid out in Forethought's paper, <a href="https://www.forethought.org/research/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power"><em>AI-Enabled Coups</em></a>.</p>
+<p>AI 2040 models energy use and mineral reserves, but not the tonnage required by a rapidly growing robot economy. We add ANZ's mineral exposure, public ownership, and hosting terms. (<a href="https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a">Economics of Plan A</a>)</p>
 <h2 id="sources-and-thanks">Sources and thanks</h2>
 <p>This is built from the AI Futures Project's <a href="https://ai-2040.com">AI 2040</a> scenario and supplements. Their caveat applies to our use of the numbers too: the economic model "plausibly contains bugs" and they do not trust its outputs to be accurate. The local source mirrors retain exact line references for auditing.</p>
 <p>Thanks also to Rebecca Hawkins, Michael J. Kerrison, Tom Barber, and others in the AI 2027 group who joined a June 2026 scoping discussion.</p>

tree.svg

@@ -31,8 +31,6 @@
 <text x="433" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">42% great globally</text>
 <rect x="242" y="626" width="155" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
 <text x="320" y="638" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">30% conditional (ours)</text>
-<rect x="552" y="628" width="129" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
-<text x="616" y="640" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">remains democratic</text>
 <rect x="393" y="740" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
 <text x="441" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
 <rect x="418" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>