mirror of
https://github.com/wassname/anz-2040-draft.git
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48 lines
4.9 KiB
JSON
48 lines
4.9 KiB
JSON
{
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"comment": "Claude: single source for tree.svg. Each item has a tier and left-to-right order. Stream width carries probability mass; exact values are tooltips, except the visible conditional ANZ estimate. Choice edges have uniform width. The HTML build fails if an href no longer matches a prose heading.",
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"title": "Choose a path",
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"canvas": {"w": 760, "top": 40, "row_h": 115, "node_h": 56, "gap": 44, "floor_w": 130, "p_scale": 300, "choice_w": 150},
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"kinds": {
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"global": {"fill": "#e0e0e0", "stroke": "#888888"},
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"hazard": {"fill": "#f4cccc", "stroke": "#990000"},
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"anz": {"fill": "#ffd966", "stroke": "#b8860b"},
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"robust": {"fill": "#b6d7a8", "stroke": "#38761d"},
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"outcome": {"fill": "#cfe2f3", "stroke": "#3d85c6"}
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},
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"nodes": [
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{"id": "A", "tier": 0, "order": 0, "kind": "robust", "href": "#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28", "title": "1. Prepare early", "sub": "2026-28: sovereign wealth funds, biosecurity, allies"},
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{"id": "F", "tier": 0, "order": 1, "kind": "robust", "href": "#2-train-specialists-2026-29", "title": "2. Train specialists", "sub": "alignment, security, and policy"},
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{"id": "PLAN", "tier": 1, "order": 0, "kind": "global", "href": "https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root", "title": "US chooses Plan A", "sub": "verified slowdown + total research transparency"},
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{"id": "I", "tier": 2, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#i-doom-about-28", "title": "I. Doom", "sub": ""},
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{"id": "BAD", "tier": 2, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#ii-humans-retain-control-but-the-world-still-goes-badly", "title": "II. Humans retain control", "sub": "but the world still goes badly"},
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{"id": "HOME", "tier": 2, "order": 2, "kind": "global", "href": "#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040", "title": "AI 2040's 42% estimate", "sub": "Our question: does ANZ remain democratic?"},
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{"id": "IX", "tier": 3, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#viii-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life", "title": "VIII. Homegrown autocracy", "sub": "citizens stop being needed"},
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{"id": "B", "tier": 3, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029", "title": "3. Sign, or set our price?", "sub": "ANZ remains democratic"},
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{"id": "E", "tier": 4, "order": 0, "kind": "anz", "href": "#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s", "title": "6. If the deal collapses", "sub": "US bloc, concert, or neutral?"},
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{"id": "C", "tier": 4, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32", "title": "4. Host compute here?", "sub": "2030-32"},
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{"id": "VIII", "tier": 5, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vii-middle-power-concert", "title": "VII. Middle-power concert", "sub": "allies bargain together"},
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{"id": "V", "tier": 5, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#v-allied-compute-host", "title": "V. Allied compute host", "sub": "ANZ hosts US clusters"},
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{"id": "VI", "tier": 6, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#vi-garrison-ally", "title": "VI. Garrison ally", "sub": "ANZ joins the US bloc"},
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{"id": "D", "tier": 6, "order": 1, "kind": "anz", "href": "#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34", "title": "5. Tax it, own a share?", "sub": "2031-34"},
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{"id": "III", "tier": 7, "order": 0, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iii-dividend-commonwealth", "title": "III. Dividend commonwealth", "sub": "households own a share"},
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{"id": "IV", "tier": 7, "order": 1, "kind": "outcome", "href": "#iv-quarry-economy", "title": "IV. Quarry economy", "sub": "no public stake"}
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],
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"edges": [
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{"from": "A", "to": "PLAN", "choice": true},
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{"from": "F", "to": "PLAN", "choice": true},
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{"from": "PLAN", "to": "I", "flow": 0.28, "label": "misaligned!", "tooltip": "28% misaligned takeover (AI 2040 supplement)"},
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{"from": "PLAN", "to": "BAD", "flow": 0.30, "tooltip": "30% aligned without a 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement)"},
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{"from": "PLAN", "to": "HOME", "flow": 0.42, "tooltip": "42% 'great future' (AI 2040 supplement)"},
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{"from": "HOME", "to": "IX", "flow": 0.126, "label": "30% (our estimate)", "tooltip": "30% conditional on AI 2040's positive outcome; 12.6% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)"},
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{"from": "HOME", "to": "B", "flow": 0.294, "tooltip": "70% conditional on AI 2040's positive outcome; 29.4% of Plan A outcomes (our estimate)"},
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{"from": "B", "to": "C", "choice": true, "label": "set our price"},
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{"from": "B", "to": "E", "choice": true, "dashed": true},
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{"from": "C", "to": "V", "choice": true, "label": "host it"},
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{"from": "C", "to": "D", "choice": true, "label": "stay supplier", "route": "outside-right"},
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{"from": "E", "to": "VIII", "choice": true, "label": "concert"},
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{"from": "E", "to": "VI", "choice": true, "label": "US bloc", "route": "outside-left"},
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{"from": "D", "to": "III", "choice": true, "label": "public stake"},
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{"from": "D", "to": "IV", "choice": true, "label": "no stake"}
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]
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}
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