ANZ 2040: the decision tree

The AI 2040 / Plan A forecast, retold from an Australia and New Zealand middle-power point of view: a decision tree of the choices Canberra and Wellington actually face as AI gets more powerful, with named endings and our own probability estimates. Genre is AI 2027 and Europe 2031. This is a draft.

Build

The site is one static index.html with no build step on GitHub's side. To regenerate it locally:

just build        # or: python3 scripts/build_html.py && python3 scripts/build_tree.py
just serve        # build, then serve at http://localhost:8080

• anz-2040.md is the source document.
• scripts/build_html.py turns it into index.html: prose via pandoc, the decision tree via mermaid.js loaded from a CDN, CSS inline.
• scripts/build_tree.py turns data/tree.json into tree.svg, a probability-sized view of the same tree (node area tracks our estimated probability). It is a separate, simplified view, not generated from the mermaid tree.
• sources/ holds the AI-2040 supplements and outside references the document cites.

Credit

Built on the AI-2040 supplements by the AI Futures Project, used with full credit. Sources and one-line summaries are in sources/INDEX.md.