mirror of
https://github.com/wassname/anz-2040-draft.git
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138 lines
11 KiB
XML
138 lines
11 KiB
XML
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<rect width="640" height="1272" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="320" y="82" text-anchor="middle" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#111">Choose a path</text>
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<path d="M197,150 C197,180 320,180 320,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
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<path d="M466,150 C466,180 320,180 320,209" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
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<path d="M320,265 C320,294 223,294 223,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0" stroke-dasharray="5 5"/>
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<path d="M320,265 C320,294 446,294 446,324" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="26.0"/>
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<path d="M446,380 C446,410 219,410 219,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.3"/>
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<path d="M446,380 C446,410 417,410 417,439" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="18.7"/>
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<path d="M417,495 C417,524 186,524 186,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.8"/>
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<path d="M417,495 C417,524 450,524 450,554" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="10.9"/>
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<path d="M450,610 C450,640 190,640 190,669" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="3.3"/>
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<path d="M561,582 C616,582 616,697 547,697" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="7.6"/>
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<path d="M439,725 C439,754 443,754 443,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
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<path d="M439,725 C439,754 208,754 208,784" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0" stroke-dasharray="5 5"/>
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<path d="M443,840 C443,870 450,870 450,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
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<path d="M532,812 C587,812 587,1042 514,1042" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
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<path d="M208,840 C208,870 205,870 205,899" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
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<path d="M108,812 C63,812 63,1042 126,1042" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
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<path d="M417,1070 C417,1100 219,1100 219,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
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<path d="M417,1070 C417,1100 450,1100 450,1129" fill="none" stroke="#a9a99f" stroke-width="1.0"/>
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<rect x="309" y="280" width="149" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="383" y="292" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">conditional on Plan A</text>
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<rect x="265" y="396" width="135" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="333" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">misaligned takeover</text>
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<rect x="404" y="396" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="432" y="408" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">aligned</text>
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<rect x="267" y="510" width="69" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="302" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">not great</text>
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<rect x="369" y="510" width="129" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="433" y="522" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">42% great globally</text>
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<rect x="242" y="626" width="155" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="320" y="638" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">30% conditional (ours)</text>
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<rect x="393" y="740" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="441" y="752" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">set our price</text>
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<rect x="418" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="446" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">host it</text>
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<rect x="539" y="915" width="96" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="587" y="927" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">stay supplier</text>
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<rect x="178" y="856" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="207" y="868" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">concert</text>
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<rect x="35" y="915" width="56" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="63" y="927" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">US bloc</text>
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<rect x="274" y="1086" width="89" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="318" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">public stake</text>
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<rect x="402" y="1086" width="63" height="17" fill="#fffff8"/>
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<text x="433" y="1098" text-anchor="middle" fill="#555" font-size="12.5" font-style="italic">no stake</text>
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<a href="#1-prepare-before-it-looks-urgent-2026-28"><title>1. Prepare early — 2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies</title>
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<rect x="72" y="94" width="248" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="197" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">1. Prepare early</text>
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<text x="197" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2026-28: royalties, biosecurity, allies</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#2-train-specialists-2026-29"><title>2. Train specialists — alignment, security, and policy</title>
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<rect x="365" y="94" width="203" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#38761d" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="466" y="119" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">2. Train specialists</text>
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<text x="466" y="135" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">alignment, security, and policy</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>AI 2040 Plan A — global outcomes, then ANZ</title>
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<rect x="236" y="209" width="168" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="320" y="234" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">AI 2040 Plan A</text>
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<text x="320" y="250" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">global outcomes, then ANZ</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#vii-boring-decade"><title>VII. Boring decade — outside the Plan A probabilities</title>
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<rect x="119" y="324" width="208" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="223" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VII. Boring decade</text>
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<text x="223" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">outside the Plan A probabilities</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>Plan A outcomes — AI 2040 probabilities</title>
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<rect x="371" y="324" width="150" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="446" y="349" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">Plan A outcomes</text>
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<text x="446" y="365" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">AI 2040 probabilities</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#i-doom-about-28"><title>I. Doom — ~28%</title>
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<rect x="144" y="439" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="219" y="464" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">I. Doom</text>
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<text x="219" y="480" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~28%</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#where-this-could-leave-us"><title>AI remains aligned</title>
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<rect x="338" y="439" width="157" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="417" y="471" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">AI remains aligned</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#ii-aligned-but-not-great-about-30"><title>II. Aligned, but not great — ~30% (AI 2040)</title>
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<rect x="79" y="554" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="186" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">II. Aligned, but not great</text>
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<text x="186" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">~30% (AI 2040)</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#where-we-depart-from-ai-2040"><title>Does ANZ remain democratic? — after a globally great future</title>
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<rect x="338" y="554" width="223" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#888888" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="450" y="579" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">Does ANZ remain democratic?</text>
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<text x="450" y="595" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">after a globally great future</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#ix-homegrown-autocracy-free-beer-and-rugby-for-life"><title>IX. Homegrown autocracy — citizens stop being needed</title>
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<rect x="93" y="669" width="194" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="190" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IX. Homegrown autocracy</text>
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<text x="190" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">citizens stop being needed</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#3-ask-for-terms-before-signing-2029"><title>3. Sign, or set our price? — ANZ remains plural</title>
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<rect x="331" y="669" width="216" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="439" y="694" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">3. Sign, or set our price?</text>
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<text x="439" y="710" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">ANZ remains plural</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#6-choose-a-side-if-the-deal-collapses-2030s"><title>6. If the deal collapses — US bloc, concert, or neutral?</title>
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<rect x="108" y="784" width="201" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="208" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">6. If the deal collapses</text>
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<text x="208" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">US bloc, concert, or neutral?</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#4-host-allied-compute-2030-32"><title>4. Host compute here? — 2030-32</title>
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<rect x="353" y="784" width="179" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="443" y="809" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">4. Host compute here?</text>
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<text x="443" y="825" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2030-32</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#viii-middle-power-concert"><title>VIII. Middle-power concert</title>
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<rect x="97" y="899" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="205" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VIII. Middle-power concert</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#v-allied-compute-host"><title>V. Allied compute host</title>
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<rect x="357" y="899" width="187" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="450" y="931" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">V. Allied compute host</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#vi-garrison-ally"><title>VI. Garrison ally</title>
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<rect x="126" y="1014" width="150" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="201" y="1046" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">VI. Garrison ally</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#5-keep-a-public-stake-in-the-machine-economy-2031-34"><title>5. Tax it, own a share? — 2031-34</title>
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<rect x="320" y="1014" width="194" height="56" rx="4" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#b8860b" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="417" y="1039" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">5. Tax it, own a share?</text>
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<text x="417" y="1055" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">2031-34</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#iii-dividend-commonwealth"><title>III. Dividend commonwealth</title>
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<rect x="111" y="1129" width="216" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="219" y="1161" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">III. Dividend commonwealth</text>
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</a>
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<a href="#iv-quarry-economy"><title>IV. Quarry economy — no public stake</title>
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<rect x="371" y="1129" width="157" height="56" rx="22" fill="#fffff8" stroke="#3d85c6" stroke-width="2.2"/>
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<text x="450" y="1154" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="bold" font-size="13">IV. Quarry economy</text>
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<text x="450" y="1170" text-anchor="middle" fill="#333" font-size="11">no public stake</text>
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</a>
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