valuations_of_ethereum

I kind of collect them, so in order of relevance...

ETH Reports with price targets:

reddit.com/u/pa7x1 on eth
- If ETH was a money, we can get a lower bound: 15-64k (deflation based, long term target)
- If ETH was a yelding asset 8-33k+ we can get a short term value
- If ETH was a productive asset via DCF: 61k
electric capital on eth
- If ETH was silver 14k (2nd store of value)
- If ETH was copper 64k (minor commodity)
- If ETH gold 140k (digital store of value)
- If ETH was oil 1M (primary commodity)
- If ETH was a store of value: 22k-200k
- If ETH was a Payment network: 1k-50k
- If ETH was a Productive asset via DCF: 16k-57k
- If ETH was a Productive asset via PE: 13-160k
- If ETH was like the Euro: 32k
- If ETH was like the USD: 96k
reddit.com/u/squishchaos 's triple halving thesis - 30-150k perhaps temporarily
Standard and Charter Bank - 26-35k
ARK's Big Ideas 2022 slide deck: ETH at 150k

Eth reports with no targets

2021 GreyScale's report on eth
2021 Lyn Alden investment report on eth and the community reply with comments from Vitalik

On cryptoasset valuation in general

Bonus: Friends of ethfinance:

reddit.com/u/logristhebard https://tokenomicsexplained.com/
reddit.com/u/lifesmage and the rocketpool investment thesis

Endnote

My personal opinion is that valuation models argue whether something will go up 10% or 20% if it works. But the real question is if it works. You absolutely need to discount it by the risk or it's a useless number. In fact the medium term price is best looked at as * . Price changes seem to happen as we update our mental estimate of .

If ETH is 30-300k, then the current price implies a 90-99% estimation of failure by the market. I think the risk is lower than this, therefore the expected value is higher.

In cryptoassets the risk could be anywhere from 0-100%. If it's ~100% then all valuation models are useless, because it's all going to zero when a black swan hits. So the number we need to obsess about is the risk and its end to reach. That reflects the zero to one journey we are on.

I see it as most important to monitor the biggest risks and metrics: hacks/bugs, regulation, and product market fit compared to competitors. Also the team and founders. I think Eth is doing well.

To that end risk in defi: